Mini 692: Boost Mafia (Game Over!)

[Incognito]

That said, if Xtox flips town, the game is in your hands.

This makes me feel just peachy.

[Incognito]

Xtoxm had mislynch written all over him from the start of today. You may disagree with what he said here due to phrasing or what-have-you:

Incog, i'm quite certain GC is scum. There have been 2 townies (me and you) pushing him for ages, and yet, people still contradict their confirmed townie. That doesn't happen on townie wagons.

but I think what he says holds some merit. Pretty much from the start of today, everyone except me (who everyone AGREES is town except for maybe eldarad, but he's probably scum anyway) seemed keen on an Xtoxm lynch (I'll check these facts, but I'm pretty sure they're right). If Xtoxm is scum, this would mean that you believe that his buddy is willing to bus him right at this very moment despite the fact that he (Xtoxm) has the support of the near-confirmed townie.

[TDC]

I would hardly call GC "keen on an Xtoxm lynch".

[Incognito]

True, he did start off supporting him, but I can't even pinpoint the exact post where his change either began to happen or actually happened.

[TDC]

Xtoxm looks like a clueless townie

(This is the first post he mentions Xtoxm).

For the record, I still think sthar's pro-town vibe is still helping make up for bad Xtox play (such as post 1180)... which makes Xtox's play just bad, not really scum.

I'm thinking scum = RR + TDC

Full support until here.

The scum want town to think I have killed Incog, cos he's the only one calling me town.
Reading this made me think of mathcam's strategy (as scum) in Minvitational 9:

In any case, the way I implemented this was, at least at the start, to kill the scummmiest player still alive. Later this morphed into maintaining what I would later postulate were scum's motives -- leaving alive only one natural target to be lynched. By the time this "natural target" came around to be me, I hoped to be able to argue that this was scum's likely plan, and to urge people not to fall into their trap.

Not saying this is the case, but by putting yourself in an bad position, then highlighting the poor position you have placed yourself as a mafia tactic to frame you is exactly the strategy ScumCam attempted to utilize in the minvitational. Reading your above quote instantly made me think of Mathcam.

Slight doubts, but he's "not saying this is the case".

[Incogntito's] constant contention that Xtox's bad play is just Xtox being town (which is, I think, as how your defense of Xtox has summed up) is what is keeping me from rethinking my evaluation of sthar.

Taking Incog's word for Xtoxm being town (so it can't be pinned to him if Xtoxm comes up scum?)

Then comes GC's claim and the surrounding discussion.

I'm not joking. I find your [Xtoxm's] play to be incredibly self destructive and exceptionally unhelpful to any town. You're not supposed to make it incredibly difficult for fellow townies to not want to lynch you because you reek of anti-town behavior.

This might actually be a slip if Xtoxm is town. Otherwise he's still not calling Xtoxm scummy.

Furthermore, as denoted in the above quote, I note that a RR/Xtox scum pair is exceptionally unlikely because of their interaction with one another. That means that a RR/TDC or a Xtox/TDC pairing are the only likely scenarios in terms of a scum team. Since TDC is the common factor of these two scenarios, he's the obvlynch from my vantage point.

First time he considers Xtoxm.

Then he brings on his crap case against me and explains how nobody but me could possibly be Xtoxm's scum partner.

You'll see how my support for sthar slowly evolved into a strong suspicion against Xtox.

lol.

Xtox: Thanks again for misrepresenting how something happened... really helping out your "obvtown" agenda. My suspicions for you didn't occur over night. Great to boil things down to an incorrect tag line, though!

No.. they occured during the day. Or rather I can't find where they occured at all.
He just started bringing up the idea of a Xtoxm-TDC scum team (where previously it was just RR-TDC) out of nothing.

[Green Crayons]

If Xtoxm is scum, this would mean that you believe that his buddy is willing to bus him right at this very moment despite the fact that he (Xtoxm) has the support of the near-confirmed townie.

Scum bussing their partners when the ship is sinking isn't new.

words

Glad to see you actually decided to read the thread. Took you long enough. You'll notice that your classification of the thread of my thoughts re: Xtox neglects the fact that I went from support of sthar --> seeing Xtox as bad/anti-town play --> seeing Xtox as potential scum. Your labeling doesn't really account for this, nor would I expect it to do so.

No.. they occured during the day. Or rather I can't find where they occured at all.

It's a saying, and it means a literal night. Not a game night. If you can't see the progression that you just mapped out, you're being willfully blind.

He just started bringing up the idea of a Xtoxm-TDC scum team (where previously it was just RR-TDC) out of nothing.

Out of nothing? Other than process of elimination? Or would you require us to rid ourselves of that scum-hunting tool as well?

[TDC]

The process of elimination is exactly the point where you first denote that Xtoxm could be scum.
Xtoxm, someone who you'd declared "stupid town" right until there.

Why did you not eliminate him in your process of elimination?

[TDC]

Besides, this "You're not supposed to make it incredibly difficult for fellow townies to not want to lynch you because you reek of anti-town behavior." makes me doubt Xtoxm is his partner.

[Green Crayons]

The process of elimination is exactly the point where you first denote that Xtoxm could be scum.

Yes. Yes it is. ...And?

Why did you not eliminate him in your process of elimination?

Because scum have an excellent way of sliding under the radar if they're simply dismissed as a "stupid townie." It would be irresponsible for me to disregard his poor play and to make an assumption (that Xtox is town playing poorly) that could hamper my ability to make a rationale decision. Especially when I just came from a game where I made exactly that mistake.

And I don't understand who you're talking about or directing to post 1407.

[TDC]

That doesn't answer why you didn't consider that possibility earlier (and what happened to your RR suspicion for that matter).

I'm talking with everyone who is not you, about you.

[Green Crayons]

That doesn't answer why you didn't consider that possibility earlier (and what happened to your RR suspicion for that matter).

Do you just not understand genuine thought progression? Are you some sort of robot who thinks a certain thing is true and then fails to amend, modify or evolve that line of thought irregardless of what else occurs?

And holy crap! You mean I'm not repeating myself in every post? Should I put a tagline at the end of each and every post to remind everyone what my suspicions are even though I have them plainly stated in the thread? Should I really assume everyone else is so thick witted that they can't remember who my suspicion targets are? I mean, I find it pretty easy to remember that Xtox thinks I'm scum, Incog thinks Eld's scum, RR doesn't know what to think other than Xtox has played poorly, Eld thinks I'm scum with Xtox and you're voting me because I started going after you (or insert whatever lame excuse you want to come up with here). I pulled that off the top of my head - and I think it's a reasonable assumption that the other players here don't retain the mental capacity of a two year old.

My suspicions of RR haven't gone anywhere. But you're my number one target, so I'm focusing on you. And because nobody is voting RR, I'm focusing on my other suspect (derived through process of elimination), who

is

receiving some heat: Xtox.

You can chalk your weak attempt at making me somehow look suspicious for not repeating ad nauseum my suspicions of other individuals besides yourself as another reason why I think you're a flaming pile of scumbag.

[Raging Rabbit]

Unboost, boost Xtoxm.

[eldarad]

TDC, I can't see your question(s) to me. Is this it?

eldarad: I don't get your plan. Now that RR thinks GC is town (or does he?), do you think so, too? Because if you don't (and you did vote him previously, so you didn't), I don't see how it's a good idea to boost him at all. Worst case he gets a role block, we lynch town, he blocks Incognito and the game is over. Far too risky.

Maybe you meant something else. In any case, here's where I am:

1. I could see Xtoxm as scum with anyone. This doesn't necessarily mean that Xtoxm is scum...just that he probably is. He's the safe lynch Today. The fact that Incog
2. RR-scum is mutually exclusive of GC-scum, as the only way RR can be scum is if he is Xtoxm's scumbuddy.
3. GC could be scum, and my initial reaction to his claim was that he was definitely scum. I have reconsidered my position somewhat - I'm basically happier with the claim than I was. I also see a massive upside of boosting GC if he is town - see post 1339.
4. TDC probably isn't scum. Although I could see a Xtoxm-TDC scumpair I don't think it is likely. For the avoidance of doubt, I will not be supporting a TDC lynch Today.
5. My head says that Incog is town. But every fibre of my being is screaming that he could be scum. In particular, I am alarmed by his 180 on Huntress as a prelude to vigging a claimed power role who he had previously convincingly shown could not possibly be scum. I also don't like his implacable defence of Xtoxm, and his (over?)-enthusiasm for a plan that involves denying the town its - potentially - last boost.
If GC's claim is genuine then we get a pseudo-cop investigation that forces the scum's hand, whereas we have no idea whether GC-scum would get a RB, or even if it will matter (it won't if Incog targets a townie with his vig-kill), so I reckon the risk/reward works in our favour just fine.
It was blatantly obvious to me that Incog was intending to vig Huntress last Night due to his comments during the Day. This indicates to me that Incog was not concerned about a potential mafia-RB, which he should be as a vig with a finite number of bullets, even when not in lylo. So I don't like how this contrasts with Incog's attitude Today, where he aims to prevent a second boost on the basis of a threat he didn't even acknowledge as existing last Night.

~~~

It just seems like you're trying to coax Raging Rabbit into maintaining his vote on Xtoxm. Nowhere in that post do you even seem to consider who a hypo-Xtoxm-scum's buddy might be

I have considered Xtoxm's potential buddies, but yes - in that post I did not explore the issue. I also have no problem with your assertion that I was trying to persuade RR to vote Xtoxm.

instead you set yourself up as Xtoxm's buddy saying that RR's town read of GC is important and that he should keep his vote on Xtoxm because even if RR thinks the team is you/Xtoxm, he's better off lynching Xtoxm since I would never vote or vig Xtoxm even in LyLo? Wouldn't you know whether or not you're scum with Xtoxm? Why would a you-town agree to go along with such a strategy when it could potentially cost us the game?

Do you agree with the following two statements:
If Xtoxm is scum and both he and you survive to lylo, the town will lose.
So if the townies alive Today believe that you're hopelessly, irredeemably wrong and that Xtoxm is scum then the only way town can win is by lynching Xtoxm Today.

I do know whether or not I am scum with Xtoxm, but RR does not. So any attempts to persuade RR have to avoid the assumption that I am town, especially since he has just expressed the opinion that I could be scum.
In that context, the logic above (that if Xtoxm is scum, we must lynch him Today) can be accepted by everyone and the issue of my being vigged Tonight is out of my hands anyway.

[Xtoxm]

No that fails, scum buddy would just not bus me and take the confirmed win.

[Green Crayons]

Unless if your scum buddy is already voting me. Which

TDC

he is.

[Elmo]

Day 3, Vote Count #8 - Lynching

Green Crayons (3) <- Xtoxm, Incognito, TDC
Xtoxm (3) <- Raging Rabbit, eldarad, Green Crayons

Boost Count

Green Crayons (3) <- Incognito, TDC, Xtoxm
Eldarad <- Green Crayons
Xtoxm <- Raging Rabbit

With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch/boost. The

deadline

is Saturday, 14th March 21:00 UTC, which is 2 days, 21 hours and 24 minutes from this post.

[TDC]

TDC, I can't see your question(s) to me. Is this it?

Yes.

2. RR-scum is mutually exclusive of GC-scum, as the only way RR can be scum is if he is Xtoxm's scumbuddy.

How so? I think RR-Xtoxm is very unlikely. Why can RR not possibly be scum without Xtoxm?

3. GC could be scum, and my initial reaction to his claim was that he was definitely scum. I have reconsidered my position somewhat - I'm basically happier with the claim than I was. I also see a massive upside of boosting GC if he is town - see post 1339.
[..]
If GC's claim is genuine then we get a pseudo-cop investigation that forces the scum's hand, whereas we have no idea whether GC-scum would get a RB, or even if it will matter (it won't if Incog targets a townie with his vig-kill), so I reckon the risk/reward works in our favour just fine.

If Xtoxm is town (and that's the case that is really interesting because then we NEED the vig-kill), Incognito has a 50% chance of hitting scum. That's pretty good if you ask me and I'm certainly not going to just throw it away.

With two scum left GC's supposed ability would only be half accurate (it could've been the other scum), plus for the result to be usable you would need both Incognito and the scum to neither hit GC nor GC's (necessarily secret) target.

So if we lynch Xtoxm and are wrong, boosting GC is much higher risk than reward.

If Xtoxm is scum, then whatever, there will be another day anyway. I can see where you're coming from in that case. I'm just not convinced enough of Xtoxm being scum that I'd like to possibly bind the outcome of the game on his flip alone, when there's other possibilities.

[Incognito]

1. [...]The fact that Incog

Curious chop off of a sentence. Was there more to this?

I'd like to second the question TDC raised: RR can only be scum if Xtoxm is his buddy? Why?

eldarad, even if you didn't like my apples to oranges comparison as to why I wasn't concerned about a Mafia RB yesterday, you seem to be completely overlooking the fact that yesterday, we were boosting vollkan (Electra), who was obvtown, and me. We were also lynching icemanE who I thought was scum, which, if we assume a total scum team of three (3) and if icemanE was actually scum, would reduce the total scum pool down to one (1) person with vollkan (Electra) not seeming likely to be the third one. Why exactly should I have been concerned about a Mafia RB at that time?

Assuming that same three-person scum team, the pool of people who could be scum from my perspective today lies with 5 people (GC, RR, you, TDC, and Xtoxm), with 2 of them likely being scum. This means that if we mislynched today and boosted 1 of the 4 people who

wasn't

today's lynch, there would be a

50% chance

we boosted scum with an unknown ability (my fear is a roleblocking ability but it could also be some sort of an NK immunity). And the town collective boosted

me

today because of the mislynch fear we have now -- we'd like another shot tonight just in case we err today.

I don't even think you

believe

what you're saying right now.

Do you agree with the following two statements:
If Xtoxm is scum and both he and you survive to lylo, the town will lose.
So if the townies alive Today believe that you're hopelessly, irredeemably wrong and that Xtoxm is scum then the only way town can win is by lynching Xtoxm Today.

Only because Xtoxm has a double-voting ability, yes. Otherwise this is a false dilemma. I wouldn't just go into tomorrow saying "lulz, Xtoxm is STILL town, vote: other person". Considering the fact that you and me have been in an endgame together, you should know the amount of time and consideration I put into those scenarios.

[Incognito]

unboost

[Incognito]

eldarad and GC, if you're both going to keep your votes on Xtoxm, you should boost him now. We're cutting dangerously close to deadline.

[TDC]

Why the unboost?

[Incognito]

GC -> B-1 -> eldarad boost-hammer -> GC boosted -> unable to get a GC lynch -> Xtoxm lynched (maybe flips town) -> poss problems tonight if GC is scum and acquires an ability=

[eldarad]

No that fails, scum buddy would just not bus me and take the confirmed win.

We already discussed this, and if your scumbuddy doesn't bus you then Incog will have to choose between lynching you and a no-lynch.

How so? I think RR-Xtoxm is very unlikely. Why can RR not possibly be scum without Xtoxm?

I think the only indication of RR-scum has been his attempts to link people - townies, as it turns out - to Xtoxm/sthar.
Option A is RR is a townie who has been, and continues to be, spectacularly wrong. Option B is RR is scum who is linking townies to his scumbuddy Xtoxm.
Both options are plausible, but if Option B is true then RR must be scum with Xtoxm, otherwise it makes no sense. Hence my very quick flip from RR to GC when I thought GC's claim was fake - if GC is scum then RR can't be.
Option C - that I have discarded - is that RR is scum and has spent the game linking townies with each other.

If Xtoxm is town (and that's the case that is really interesting because then we NEED the vig-kill), Incognito has a 50% chance of hitting scum. That's pretty good if you ask me and I'm certainly not going to just throw it away.

I agree that the vig-kill has a pretty good chance of catching scum if we mislynch. But that it out of our hands to a very large extent.

With two scum left GC's supposed ability would only be half accurate (it could've been the other scum), plus for the result to be usable you would need both Incognito and the scum to neither hit GC nor GC's (necessarily secret) target.

Right. Which effectively forces the scum to kill GC if he is town.
If GC is still alive at dawn Tomorrow then either GC is scum, or the mafia have taken a massive risk that he isn't going to end up confirming someone or targeting the killer. I think there is value in forcing the mafia's hand in that way.

~~~

Curious chop off of a sentence. Was there more to this?

lol, yeah I guess. I think I moved it down into point 5.

Only because Xtoxm has a double-voting ability, yes. Otherwise this is a false dilemma. I wouldn't just go into tomorrow saying "lulz, Xtoxm is STILL town, vote: other person". Considering the fact that you and me have been in an endgame together, you should know the amount of time and consideration I put into those scenarios.

So if Xtoxm is scum, we must kill him Today or Tonight. You won't vig him, so we have to lynch him. If we don't and he is scum we will not see dawn Tomorrow, even if we lynch/vig correctly Today, as his extra vote allows him to force a lynch by himself Tomorrow.

If Xtoxm is not scum, do you believe that the last scum would deliberately go into lylo with you and Xtoxm? Even if you think it is possible, do you see the advantage of robbing the mafia of that course of action?

~~~
Yeah, I will boost and lynch Xtoxm if that is the only deal on the table.

[Raging Rabbit]

I think the only indication of RR-scum has been his attempts to link people - townies, as it turns out - to Xtoxm/sthar.
Option A is RR is a townie who has been, and continues to be, spectacularly wrong.

Inaccurate. The only person I linked to Xtoxm before was Iceman, and my suspicons of them were mutually exclusive in their roots, but were strengthened by their apparant connection. My suspicion of you is completely mutually exclusive from Xtoxm, and me thinking he's scum makes you look better, if anything. More importantly, the only reason I've been trying to "link" people to Xtoxm is that I'm pretty sure he's scum and have been for a long time, so naturally I'm trying to find his partner.


Xtoxm needs to be lynched - anything else will lose us the game if he's scum; and he need to be boosted - anything else is an unnecassary risk. Let's get this day over with.

[Green Crayons]

unboost, boost: Xtox