Good Omens Mafia! Game Over.

[mith]

Too tired for a long post, which should make JD happy, but I just looked back over Fuldu's posts (on a hunch) and found the reason he voted for Gaspode in the first place a bit odd, and then the fact that he didn't post again until his post on this page to Peachy (where, along with subsequent posts, he seems to be pushing very hard for a Gaspode lynch) even odder. Therefore, I'd like to see Fuldu (specifically him) post what he finds scummy about Gaspode, so I can analyze it to death and go back to annoying JD.

[mith]

Doh, should be last page, obviously. Unless I'm being psychic.

[Fuldu]

mith: It's still just the one thing that I mentioned in the post where I voted for Gaspode. The way in which he was trying to deflect attention from himself onto the people who were, at that time, bandwagoning him seems disingenuous to me. In the context of Gaspode, who I know doesn't behave in a stupid or spiteful manner, this seems scummy.

Other than a joke at JDTAY, I don't think my subsequent posts have been urging the lynch of Gaspode especially strongly. I was commenting on the inconsistency of Peachy's logic and her actions by pointing out that, if eveything she said was true, then the logical response would be to vote Gaspode rather than Aelyn. Certainly, I think Gaspode more suspicious than Aelyn, but I'm hardly waving the IS banner and saying everyone should follow me because I'm always right.

[mith]

Ok. I don't find that particular thing as scummy as you do, and I think there is more to Peachy's points than she posted and/or noticed (specifically, as she points out, it is Aelyn who is making these suspicious posts linking them, not Gaspode; this could be because they are scum together, but it could also be because Aelyn is trying to link himself to Gaspode for other reasons, or because Aelyn is just acting weird about the bandwagon).

However, your response doesn't set off any warning bells, which is what the real point was.

I am happy with my vote, or with switching to Aelyn if something starts there, but I am still unconvinced about Gaspode. I would like to hear more from DP about it than his three one line posts, as well. He's being unusually quiet.

[Seol]

Forewarning - everything bolded in quotes is my emphasis.

What, so you only keep your votes on scum who are kind enough to compound their errors? That's very forgiving of you!

I would keep my vote on Gaspode if he had actually made an error and not just

made a few posts that seemed Mafia-flavoured

.

But you said he hasn't done anything nonsuspicious - in fact, all he's done is clarify that his position is one of great reluctence to vote. What has he said that makes you think he isn't scummy?

I don't think he's not scum.

I'm just giving him the benefit of the doubt since he could be making those posts if he were town and for a while, I didn't give people the benefit of the doubt.

The only problem with that is on day one, if you give everyone the benefit of the doubt, we're never going to get anywhere. I'd be very surprised if anyone was foolish enough to actually get caught from something concrete today. So, we have to go with

something

- yes, we might be wrong, but he's the best candidate right now (well, I think so, which is why my vote's on him).

It doesn't "make you Mafia", but taking a vote off whilst not finding him any less suspicious makes me wonder:
a) How suspicious did you find him in the first place?
b) Might you have had a reason

other than suspicion

to place a vote on him?

I'm just saying that at the moment your actions don't make much sense. Whilst I'm not putting it forward seriously, the prospect of it being a seperator vote is both plausible and consistent with your actions - but it was more of a poke than an indictment, I'll freely admit it's fairly flimsy.

I found him suspicious enough to vote him

. I don't know what the other people feel exactly about him, but

the way that he posted just seemed very reluctant to commit to anything and Mafia-like

. But it's not like there was anything concrete against him, just a feeling. After a few more of his posts, I felt that it was possible that he was just a townie speaking in that manner, and

since my vote wasn't doing anything anyway

, I removed it. Make sense?

Honestly, it sounds to me like you really do suspect Gaspode, but you're just trying to be careful not to be on a bandwagon that might be wrong. Now, obviously, nobody wants to lynch a townie - but we're

not going to get proof today

(if anyone wants to prove me wrong,

please

go ahead). I'm not saying we should speed-lynch Gaspode, and it may be in the course of events scummier people crop up, and we can always switch our vote then. But if people say "oh, we need 17 to lynch, my vote's insignificant" (I'd draw a political parallel here, but we'd get OT too quick) or "I'm not voting until someone makes a concrete mistake", we won't reach day 2. Ever.

It's also interesting that what you say you find scummy about Gaspode - his reluctance to commit to a vote, despite genuine suspicion - is behaviour that you yourself are displaying.

From "the Mafia are so easy to spot" to "fairly flimsy"?

Killjoy. I still have an FOS on you, I'm not sure whether you're just naive or doing this deliberately. I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt though - I'm prepared to move that FOS onto someone more deserving later.

[Stewie]

Since Aelyn is scum if and only if Gaspode is scum, then there are two good reasons to go after Gaspode rather than going after Aelyn.

So if Gaspode is innocent, Aelyn can't be scum either?

No... but if gaspode is not scum, then we have nothing on aelyn -- no reasons to believe she is scum. If we lynch aelyn, we gain no information on gaspode. Gaspode could still be scum, and everything previously said about gaspode is still in play. Or, if Aelyn turns out to be scum, then that doesn't mean gaspode is scum too.

However, if we lynch gaspode and he happens to be scum, then it's very likely that aelyn is scum too. If he's town, then it doesn't mean that aelyn is town too, but that there is no reason to believe that she is scum, other than coron's "gut feeling."

And regarding that... coron, nobody is going to follow your gut. Find some kind of reasoning for it, because there is nothing my gut can see about aelyn's posts. They seem pretty normal to me. If you find something that is suspicious, point it out, don't just say it's there. What tipped off your gut?

I am really tempted to switch my vote to coron right now, because of all this "gut feeling" nonsense when there are plenty of coherent things to go after.

[Seol]

If he's town, then it doesn't mean that aelyn is town too, but that there is no reason to believe that

she

is scum, other than coron's "gut feeling."

Careful there Stewie, Aelyn's not female - although that's a common misconception. So much so, in fact, that on the Misetings forums his custom title is "Not actually female".

[Aelyn]

It doesn't help that my current avatar is a rather cute Elven female, and before that I've been known to have an angel as my av.

I suppose it's my fault for choosing such a feminine-sounding name - but I've used it for so long, I always associate it with the Elven male Dragonrider which the name comes from (from a short story I wrote).

Sigh.


Back to the issue at hand: I don't feel Coron's "logic" is necessarily a bad reason to vote - after all, I've often relied on gut instinct when voting, and it tends to work out quite well. However, I do feel that it's somewhat scummy to try to get others to vote based on what your gut says to you, especially since it's very difficult for me to answer such a vague attack. Coron, please, elaborate on why I look scummy. Perhaps it's all a big misunderstanding

[lazarusmoth]

Still here and still liking my vote to test the Aelyn-Gaspode connection.

[olio]

No... but if gaspode is not scum, then we have nothing on aelyn -- no reasons to believe she is scum.
....
However, if we lynch gaspode and he happens to be scum, then it's very likely that aelyn is scum too.

And this is based on the reasoning of Peachy who voted Aelyn?

mod

, can you prod following people:
PBug
SinisterOverlord
DoomCow
Flying Dutchman
DarkLight140
SubtleTactix
Thoth

[mith]

No... but if gaspode is not scum, then we have nothing on aelyn -- no reasons to believe she is scum.

Er, yeah we do. I don't actually find Peachy's argument all that convincing as far as them being scum together is concerned, simply because Aelyn didn't mention Gaspode completely at random; he was acting on an ongoing bandwagon. However, his behavior is quite clearly weird (at least to a few of us). Mafia quite often act weird jumping on and off bandwagons.

[Thoth]

Oops, sorry completely forgot I was in this game. Received a prod from DS.

I'll read and post on Monday (Hardly home this weekend)

[Dragon Slayer]

They've been prodded. Pbug has requesting replacing. Trying to get one now. Spread the word.

[Stewie]

No... but if gaspode is not scum, then we have nothing on aelyn -- no reasons to believe she is scum.

Er, yeah we do. I don't actually find Peachy's argument all that convincing as far as them being scum together is concerned, simply because Aelyn didn't mention Gaspode completely at random; he was acting on an ongoing bandwagon. However, his behavior is quite clearly weird (at least to a few of us). Mafia quite often act weird jumping on and off bandwagons.

My point was that lynching aelyn will tell us nothing about gaspode, but lynching gaspode will tell us lots about aelyn. If gaspode is scum, then aelyn is probably scum too.

If gaspode isn't scum, then peachy's inital argument holds no ground and we should not take it into account when deciding whether to vote for aelyn or not.

My fault, I should have been more clear. I wasn't because if gaspode is not scum, then

I

don't have any reasons to suspect aelyn. If you find something aelyn does suspicious, then that's another story -- but you still couldn't use peachy's argument to get aelyn lynched if we knew gaspode was town.

[Coron]

Wouldn't the reverse be true to, if Aelyn is scum then his connection to Gaspode would incriminate him.

[SubtleTactix]

Ack. Sorry I've been lurking and not posting.

I have been rereading Gaspode's and Aelyn's posts. First, I think Gaspode's posts have been quite reasonable, and although it is clear a lot of good thought went into people's votes on him and their arguments against him, I am unconvinced at this point that he is scum.

Consequently, I don't feel that Aelyn's posts are designed to shape our opinion of a Gaspode-Aelyn connection. Nevertheless, I am surprised by the rapid change of direction in his (Aelyn's) posts. Perhaps olio's comment from a while ago:

Aelyn, sounds like you're looking really hard for a reason to vote. So hard actually, that the moment you think of reason to vote, you do it.

best describes my reaction when I read them. Aeyln's style seems quite flighty, which is odd when he is still a dozen votes away from a lynch.

I can understand why Coron feels that Aeyln could be scum and Gaspode not. I have begun to feel the same way. And even if I am misreading Gaspode, Peachy has provided a decent argument for an Aelyn vote in that case, also. So at this point, I'll

Unvote: Stewie

and

Vote: Aelyn

.

--Tactix

[DoomCow]

received prod, making the "I'm here but not much up to date yet so I'll re-read and post later" post.

Been (semi-)unexpected busy for the past few days, and I was planning a reread anyways so I'll do so tomorrow (not much time today) and post afterwards...

[Stewie]

Wouldn't the reverse be true to, if Aelyn is scum then his connection to Gaspode would incriminate him.

Not quite... I'm pretty sure I already explained this, and so did Fuldu...

[rolandofthewhite]

Still liking my vote on Gaspode.

[SinisterOverlord]

Man... Idiot that I am. I really ought not to overcommit like this, even despite the awesome themes. Sorry I haven't posted... will (re?)read thread, give a post with hopeful content soon.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Still liking my vote on Gaspode.

Me too.

[mepmuff]

I'm thinking there's not much use trying to link people together at this point. With a game this size I think the dynamics are a bit different as it opens up some more possibilities for establishing alibi's. So perhaps if we get the votes on Gaspode up a bit, we can make more of the possible links?

vote: Gaspode

[DoomCow]

vote: gapode

I agree with most reasonings for the bandwagon. That and he seems most scummy to me. From his defense/death we might be able to learn more...

[mith]

I'm thinking there's not much use trying to link people together at this point.

So perhaps if we get the votes on Gaspode up a bit, we can make more of the possible links?

And mepmuff moves back up to number 2 on The List (tm).

Stewie, I don't believe that Peachy's claim is "If Gaspode is scum, then Aelyn is scum." I believe it's "They're probably scum together." As such, if we're going to base things *just* on that conclusion, there is no reason to vote for *either* of them above the other; you have to consider external factors, such as Gaspode already having votes, one of them looking suspicious for other reasons, or the fact that all of the posts Peachy is looking at are from Aelyn, rather than Gaspode.

I don't think it's any more reasonable to say "if we lynch Gaspode, and he's scum, then Aelyn probably is too" than to say "if we lynch Aelyn, and he's scum, then Gaspode probably is too", based just on what Peachy said. The problem is that you're *not* just basing things on what Peachy said, you're also basing it on what you think about Gaspode.

All that said, I don't come to Peachy's conclusion anyway. I come to the conclusion that Aelyn's posts are highly suspicious, but don't suggest anything in particular about Gaspode. I might come to her conclusion if Gaspode had not already been bandwagoned, but his name was already out there. I see it more as an attempt by Aelyn to join the bandwagon on a flimsy excuse, and then when he was called on it, to try to back out ASAP. That doesn't mean they *aren't* scum together, but I find it more likely Aelyn is scum and not with Gaspode, and Gaspode is either innocent or in a separate group.

I'm still wondering what's up with DP. I thought for a moment that he might have a "can't say more than a sentence or two" role or something, but if there's any post constraining roles out there they're more likely to be of the Sister Mary Loquacious variety.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I'm still wondering what's up with DP. I thought for a moment that he might have a "can't say more than a sentence or two" role or something, but if there's any post constraining roles out there they're more likely to be of the Sister Mary Loquacious variety.

Nope, you should be used to my style by now. At the start of a game, certainly a large one, I never make large posts.

I have no posting restriction.

See?

None.

Whatsoever.

I just think that too many players want to try to put too much intelligence in the day 1 choice. Gaspode will do. I'm certainly not convinced he's scum, but he did set off my radar with his post and nothing since then has made me change my mind.

Wow.

Long post.

For me.