Mini 763 - Carnival Mafia - Game Over

[ortolan]

Vote: lixyl

Picking on numbers in usernames is a big no

[ortolan]

I kinda dislike double posts. If it were meaningful posts I could live with it, but at the moment his comments on this game seem a bit erratic.

Unpacking this you have two separate attacks here- one for double posting and one for "being erratic". Can you explain how exactly he is being erratic and how double posting in itself is scummy?

The argument against Datadanne is a big reach- especially because 23 was a legitimate question and 25 was a legitimate albeit sparsely stated opinion. Kairyuu's attempt in 36 to tie ChiefSkye4 to Datadanne based on her defending his doing something which is very definitely not clearly scummy is itself scummy.

I will find people scummy for trying to prolong random stage. I will suspect you if you start screwing around and getting us off topic.

This is lacking. At the point where someone actually becomes clearly evasive of questions or is active lurking/clearly not participating it should be obvious to most if not all. You telling us this is nothing new and in fact looks like you're trying to give yourself pre-emptive justification for pouncing on the smallest transgression people may make.

I will not give up a hunch I have because someone trys to get us talking about something else, like the way Chief wants us to talk about Datadanne.
I'm very curious at the connections that seem to be forming, especially centered around Chief.

What's wrong with talking about Datadynne, especially when she was defending him? What exactly piques your curiosity about these "connections" surrounding Chief?

I don't see datadanne's pointless comments in essentially the RVS as "rather important" (reference 'meh'). What is more important is you agreeing that Datadanne isn't doing anything really scummy and also saying that his attackers also are not scummy. Furthermore, you encourage the rest of the players to comment on this nonsense...ie you're playing both sides and spurring on what i see as a pointless discussion. Is that more clear?

This is a good point.

Since Datadanne was the major topic of discussion at the time, I chose that to try and get some feedback on, but I'd love to hear anything from the others, on this current situation involving myself, on Datadanne, on anything. Since only about 4 of us out of 11 are contributing, or saying anything at all, rather, I feel that our viewpoints are limitted, and that we're likely to get stuck in a rut.

What do you think other people are likely to say about Datadanne? Why do you feel the need to prompt general discussion, which is assumed to be required in mafia anyhow?

Post 50 is a poor suggestion. Firstly the information you get from day one, genuine, fully-fledged interactions is extremely useful. If there is a pre-determined lynch there's little motivation for scum to defend each other or attack townies so we're unlikely to get any information. Plus we can just ask for his replacement if we think his playstyle is clearly non-contributive and generally anti-town. I have seen little evidence for this so far in this game.

Post 57 is good.

Agreed with 60 that policy lynching him based on evidence from one game is stupid and unfair to him.

I have not said this, I believe Kairyuu and nocmen to have more experience than me. However, there has not been evidence presented to prove my hypothesis wrong. Baltar only has three games to draw from and Kairyuu did not provide a sample size rendering his list of games currently meaningless. It's not arrogance, it's good science.

Whatever it is it is not good science.

If there's been a more objective study of this topic (possibly something from MD) and it runs counter to what I've said I'll gladly back off having been proven wrong.

Did you consider that a non-random lynch day one, even if it's more likely to result in a town lynch than a scum lynch (and I don't know whether it is or not) is still potentially useful in that it raises the probability of a successful lynch on later days due to the information gleaned from interactions. Whatever you claim, having a pre-determined lynch will counteract this.

No it's not. In fact if the meta is correct then I'm doing the town thing to do and everyone who insists on stumbling blindly into a lynch is inadvertently helping scum. Hence to label me scum you need to prove that the meta is incorrect and that it makes sense that I would actually post and support the false meta as scum.

Why? You are advocating an out-of-the-ordinary action which for which there is no readily available relevant data. Thus the onus is on you to prove your statistical determination is valid. Just because people cannot prove you're wrong doesn't necessarily mean you're not scummy for advocating such a deviant strategy from accepted good play with no evidence to support it.

I'm encouraging he be lynched without a bandwagon because a datadanne bandwagon will provide no information and that we spend the rest of the day on more productive topics of discussion.

This is stupid, why would a bandwagon on him not be likely to provide the expected relevant information? If he is scum then his buddies will defend him, yes, so we gain info about him (although not in your plan)? If he is town then we will get nothing making this plan terrible.

Well, in my opinion, this sounds like scum distracting us from his scumbuddy. I do agree that we need to give a bit of a rest on Datadanne, yeah, but not to totally let him off the hook, and write off that any further prodding/investigation would "provide no more information."

Wait, what is he on the hook for? Why is he scummy? And why were you defending him earlier? And how is DDD likely to be his scumbuddy if he's defending him?

You know how silly this sounds? I've spent the last five posts or so advocating a datadanne lynch, I still advocate lynching datadanne. To suggest that I'm distancing from the guy I've constructed my entire argument around lynching is borderline hysterical.

Not distancing but possibly busing. If he happens to die and you're his scumbuddy you would (had we not taken this into account) look very townie for the rest of the game. I don't agree with your re-iterated arguments that we still get info if we pre-plan to lynch Datadanne but I've already said why (by definition we get no info if scum know there are no real stakes).

The plan you are presenting about us lynching data while still having some sort of side discussion, again, does not make much sense to me. So, you are saying that we continue to look for someone scummy, narrow it down...and then let them live? How does this make sense? If someone acts scummy, you lynch them. If data ends up being the scummiest player at the end of Day 1, then by all means lets get out the rope, but we can't possibly know that until we get to that point. Plus, I think the scum would be much less likely to make errors if they knew 100% for sure that they weren't going to be killed today.

Yep.

I don't like you backing out of saying it's random because that seemed to be an important part of your argument, and random in this particular game would yield an 8.33% chance of lynching scum--not 25%. I'm curious where you even got that number from.

What?

Surely you've seen players like Datadanne before... empking, zwet, millar?

These first two players are rarely policy-lynched from what I've seen.

88 is generally good, but I'm not sure if this holds much water:

I feel rather uncomfortable at L-1 (if that is indeed where I am) and promise to put together a cognizant defense of myself over the next few hours and to place questions to other people, but I'd appreciate a single unvote so that a drive-by lynching can't happen and hurt the town, especially so early.

Jumpy scum is jumpy now that he realized how close he is to being lynched. That attitude makes me more convinced that you are the best place for my vote. I will not be unvoting.

Quickhammers do occur from both townies and scum with varying intentions.

Guilting people into backing off is foolish and scummy. Especially considering that it is common courtesy to allow players at L-1 to speak in their own defense and claim before deciding whether or not to lynch them.

Oh yeah, by the way. L-1. Claim time.

Scratch that about it being generally good. His plan was sucky yes, I'm not yet sure if it was scummy and he has no reason to claim at this point.

1 divided by 12 (a random picking of who to vote) = 8.33%

I think the correct play at this immediate moment is to give DDD a defense post and wait for the several people who have contributed little to nothing at this point a chance to say something. You rushing the claim is noted though Kairyuu.

There's probably more than one scum player

You rushing the claim is noted though Kairyuu.

YAAAAAAY!! Something I did was noteworthy!!

(It's late, so I'm not quite sane. Please excuse my multiple personalities poking through )

In other news, note away. I have nothing to hide. *twitch*

No but seriously, why did you want that claim so prematurely?

Sorry for the long catch-up-post, I will be more consistently active from now

[ortolan]

Unvote

Vote: Kairyuu

[ortolan]

To answer questions on my vision on double posting: I don’t think double posting on its own is a scumtell. I do think however that scum is more likely to double post than town. Scum can only pretend to be town, so they think by themselves ‘am I acting like a townie?’, which makes them go back to their posts and possibly adjust themselves.

I disagree strongly with this.

Also, when the multiple posts are kind of erratic and in different directions, it might point to scum who’s just trying to point out as much as possible so something sticks.

A stronger argument but I'm still skeptical of it having much/any worth.

L-1 is not premature. Also, early wagons to claims rarely happen anymore, and of the older games where I've seen them they tend to work well to increase the likelihood of D1 scumlynch. Besides, current meta states that L-1 = claim time. I'll not apologize for calling for it.

It was clear there was zero legitimate reason for lynching him at that point in time, and if there was zero legitimate reason for lynching him, then there was zero legitimate reason for asking him to claim.

For your question about my previous defense (if you'd like to call it that) of Datadanne, I was initially just putting my two cents in (which included that I didn't think Datadanne was particularly scummy) and that sparked a discussion over my intentions, where I defended my beliefs. In the post that you quoted, I meant for the reader to infer that Datadanne's actions and posts weren't scummy standing on their own, but with DDD's urging us to drop him as a topic of discussion rather entirely, made them look scummier in the light of a possible partnership.

Ok.

My take on VP's possible slip is this- It's suspicious to a degree, but nothing that's getting my alarm bells going. I wouldn't have even noticed it if it hadn't been pointed out. But maybe that's just me being unobservant.

What slip?

My current take on Datadanne- Wow. Just wow. Useless. Please post something, like, meaningful. Or ask for a replacement. Nao. Lol.

Agreed 110%

This is a bit of outguessing the mod, but I think you may have just slipped up big time.

Unvote
Vote: Nocmen

[ortolan]

Shanba Re: 129: Is Chiefskye worth a vote at this point?

You talk all your post about Weyouns, Kairyuu and Chief, and you end up voting for Nocmen? And what's more, without reasons? I find this odd.

So you should, if this was an accurate detailing of my post. The quote by Kairyuu, however, is more than enough reason for voting her.

[ortolan]

I actually think we should go straight to being explicit about this:

Nocmen, please read the last paragraph of your post 108 and tell me if you notice any inconsistencies between it and your role pm. No-one else answer this please.

Then, Shinnen, after Nocmen has, please do the same.

[ortolan]

Ok.

Shinnen, do you notice any inconsistences between the last paragraph of post 108 and your own role pm?

[ortolan]

ortolan - if chiefskye wasn't worth a vote, then I wouldn't be voting her. Duh.

Yer sorry I didn't notice the beginning of your post. Pretty newb of me.

however, I almost feel bad for doing this, as I know how hard it is to replace into a game where your predecesor left you in a hole, but

Vote: Shanba

I think your predecessor gave away his scum alignment, and I also think that the driving force behind your case on cheif is to get attention away from yourself by posting a very logical (and well written) case on someone else.

You posted a strong argument, but something tells me that it was to draw attention away from the mistakes your pred. made.

What did Datadanne do that was scummy?

Seeing all this Nocmen controversy shtuff, I went back and reread his posts. Running the risk of repeating someone else's question (oh well lol), why did you say one scum group and then, two posts later, admit your "role PM" (questionable legitimacy) said two?

Probably irrelevant but this isn't actually what she said.

However, the win condition is a bit tricky. Because sometimes, it allows for an auto confirmation that causes a bunch of issues.

Well, please ask the mod about the extent to which you're allowed to paraphrase your win condition, and then get back to us. Hint: refusing to do this is likely not going to help your cause.

I see where nocmen was going with this.

Nocmen wasn't going anywhere. Nocmen was being attacked for a scummy slip, and flailing.

Let's just clarify, as this is an apparently bastard mod game and all, is everyone else's role pm consistent with what Kairyuu and I etc. have claimed? Speak now or forever hold your peace.

[ortolan]

Yessir. Mine basically says to lynch all puppeteers and those in association with them.

Haha, be more specific please The puppeteers and who?

[ortolan]

I'm up for a Nocmen claim at this point, unless anyone has any good reasons for why not?

Anything else at this point would just be beating around the bush, ironically a la DDD's plan.

[ortolan]

I feel uneasy about (two?) scum apparently being caught so easily, especially in light of bastard mod warnings.

ChiefSkye4, can you explain your role's inconsistency with post 4?

also, what do you think of Nocmen currently?

Nocmen, what do you think of ChiefSkye4?

Win con for me. I agree with Shanba, but I don't like using other people's cases.

Like it or not it does seem you are implicitly appealing to others' cases here. If not do you genuinely think CS4 is a better target than Nocmen for the reason you gave?

[ortolan]

I guess it must suck to have your scum team destroyed so early.

HEhe yer except I was only the second to pounce on Nocmen's scummy *censored due to mod warning*-related claim in the first place.

Do

you

see any reason for someone to claim a role that has been already announced dead by the mod?

This game is bastard-ish. You (yes, everyone) probably will not like the outcome of this game. But you knew that, didn't you?

Do you have any particular problem with extracting further information prior to a lynch in general VP Baltar?

[ortolan]

I will indeed wait for their responses before further engaging with you, but also Nocmen:

but I have reason to believe my role may change.

What is this reason?

[ortolan]

Wait on the hammer till I get some answers. It's only polite.

[ortolan]

poor form

[ortolan]

I enjoyed this game, and the setup was interesting. I was thinking when I was skimming over posts after my death "they still need to lynch Nocmen", lol, I was convinced his off wincon-claim was also damning.

Does sibling mean you die when they die (or the day after)? Cause if so the balloon-animal maker should have been playing their role like a jester. I think the setup was as a result biased against scum, although ironically Empking was lynched anyway.

Scum would have found it challenging to win this setup in a 2/8 split anyway, let alone with one being caught out day one due to wincon and the other being a sibling.

[ortolan]

what does BM mean?

[ortolan]

I will /prein for Sheep and Wolves if it's coming up after a week or so (otherwise that might be one too many games just at this moment)