Mini 739 ~ Mafia Jailbreak, Game Over

[popsofctown]

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[bionicchop2]

1.

Ohh hay look at that.

2.

BC who did you target last night?

I think it was a mistake for me to reveal who was jailed the previous night as scum took advantage of the fact I cannot jail the same person twice and killed who I had jailed the previous night. At this time I don't think the information of who I targeted for jailing helps us find scum.

3. I am assuming a mislynch and lose situation. Best case scenario is 3 mafia (I guess 2 is truly best case) and no SK. If we are looking at 3+1 right now, then the town is no longer a true majority and winning will be quite difficult. IF we have a SK, they actually need to kill mafia now or they lose, so that benefits us slightly. If we are in a 5 vs 3 situation (and even a 4 vs 3 vs 1) I am mulling the idea of a no lynch.

[Rishi]

2.

BC who did you target last night?

I think it was a mistake for me to reveal who was jailed the previous night as scum took advantage of the fact I cannot jail the same person twice and killed who I had jailed the previous night. At this time I don't think the information of who I targeted for jailing helps us find scum.

3. I am assuming a mislynch and lose situation. Best case scenario is 3 mafia (I guess 2 is truly best case) and no SK. If we are looking at 3+1 right now, then the town is no longer a true majority and winning will be quite difficult. IF we have a SK, they actually need to kill mafia now or they lose, so that benefits us slightly. If we are in a 5 vs 3 situation (and even a 4 vs 3 vs 1) I am mulling the idea of a no lynch.

On Point 2, I disagree. We know there was a kill last night and that'd give us information on who didn't send the kill.

I don't understand why an SK would have to kill Mafia to not lose. In most setups I've seen, the Mafia can't win unless the SK is dead. In any case, I think this is all academic. As Jahudo said, we can't still assume that there is only one killing group, but I'm finding it increasingly likely. Can't be 4 scum, or we've already lost. So I'm guessing it's 3 scum and lynch-or-lose.

If that's the case, No Lynch is the right play.

[bionicchop2]

On Point 2, I disagree. We know there was a kill last night and that'd give us information on who didn't send the kill.

And if I jailed mafia, then they know to have that player send in the kill tonight.

I don't understand why an SK would have to kill Mafia to not lose.

It's just a function of math and it

technically

is not 100% true. More specifically a SK cannot kill town tonight or mafia would potentially have 50% of the game.

In any case, I think this is all academic.

Yup.

As Jahudo said, we can't still assume that there is only one killing group, but I'm finding it increasingly likely. Can't be 4 scum, or we've already lost. So I'm guessing it's 3 scum and lynch-or-lose.

By lynch or lose here, I assume you mean mislynch and lose. Lynch or lose means we must lynch and it must be scum. It

can

be 4 scum without town losing, but it becomes almost a prisoner's dilemma where we can't win without unintentional assistance from scum (cross kill).

If that's the case, No Lynch is the right play.

I think 5 town 3 scum (even 2 mafia , 1 SK variant) works for a NL to reduce suspects. If it is worst case of 4 town and 4 scum I still feel the same since lynching SK in that case loses the game for town (unless a kill is prevented).

[iamausername]

At this time I don't think the information of who I targeted for jailing helps us find scum.

I'll agree with this if we're going to No Lynch today. And I do think that's the right thing to do, for the record.

[Rishi]

By lynch or lose here, I assume you mean mislynch and lose. Lynch or lose means we must lynch and it must be scum. It

can

be 4 scum without town losing, but it becomes almost a prisoner's dilemma where we can't win without unintentional assistance from scum (cross kill).

I always used lynch-or-lose to mean if we lynch a pro-town player, then the scum have won. Doesn't matter, though. I'm not in the mood to argue semantics. My point still stands.

And you are correct. There can be four scum. I was talking about a single scumteam of 4 (was being semi-facetious).

Want to hear from the others, but No Lynch is looking better and better.

[Jahudo]

What will a no lynch solve exactly because the watcher is the only sure-fire scum catcher and we might not even have one. And just because there is 0-1 kills, that doesn't mean a doc/RB/jailer is successful.

I think we have to lynch today.

[Huntress]

I'm going to have to think some more about the lynch/no lynch choice although at the moment I'm favouring no lynch based on the numbers. I can see advantages to both but I haven't really thought it through yet.

Is it too soon to talk about a mass claim?

[Rishi]

I'm going to have to think some more about the lynch/no lynch choice although at the moment I'm favouring no lynch based on the numbers. I can see advantages to both but I haven't really thought it through yet.

Wishy-washiness, thy name is Huntress.

Is it too soon to talk about a mass claim?

Not if you're scum, but for the rest of us, yes.

[SpyreX]

No lynch removes the mylo issue to a good ol' fashioned lylo.

Not saying we shouldn't chat it up today, but I'm thinking NL as well.

Ohh, nice touche' Bio.

More words later.

[Vi]

Vote Count:

[unchanged]

*cricket* *cricket*

Minimum (L-5)

Not Voting:

bionicchop2, Huntress, iamausername, Jahudo, CF Riot, Moriarty147, Rishi, SpyreX
[size=0]bionicchop2 - 0 | Huntress - 0 | iamausername - 0 | Jahudo - 0 | CF Riot - 1 | Moriarty147 - 1 | Rishi - 0 | SpyreX - -1[/size]

First Deadline Review: Sunday, April 5 2009
Current Deadline: Thursday, April 9 2009

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I totally went to sleep last night. Sorry.

[Jahudo]

Huntress, weren't you going to make a post yesterday? Or were you reading just to catch up?

The only way for a no lynch to find scum is if they try to night kill.
Advantages: successful watcher or if there's a dead mafia/sk we know there has always been two killing factions
Disadvantages: we might lose 1-2 townies. We don't know if we have a watcher. If we have a 3 mafia 1 sk scenario even the SK shouldn't want to kill because they might lose too.

So the best case scenario is a hypothetical SK dies or a hypothetical watcher finds the killer.

If there aren't any NK's that doesn't automatically mean someone stopped a kill. But there isn't any disadvantage here if we don't lose someone.

What do other people think?

[CF Riot]

I doubt we have 3-1 in a twelve man game with no cop. Plus 3 flipped vanillas. I'm thinking it's probably 3 maf, 2 maf + SK, or 2 maf + 2 maf in that order.

In 3 mafia, no lynch helps by eliminating a suspect plus possible night results. I don't really see any disadvantage.

In 2+1 worst case (no protects, no cross kills) it could potentially take us to D4 with a 3 town 2 mafia and 1 SK mylo where hitting the SK would lose the game, and even then we'd need at least 1 cross kill the following night to have a shot at winning. But if there were a protect or a cross kill the first night it would be significantly better. Best case is double cross kill leading to a 5 town 1 mafia D4 with a tracker result on the last mafioso. That'd be the luckiest night in mafia history though.

In 2+2 worst case would be 2,2,2 D4. I don't really know what town strategy is in that situation. But going into N3 (tonight) each scum team would have a 1/3 probability of hitting the other team, plus possible protects plus possible watcher results. Best case is 4,1,1 plus tracker results. I think 2 scum teams of 2 is the least likely set-up though.

So basically if there's one scum group, no lynch is optimal play. If there's two then regardless of which set-up it is, if we no lynch and things go bad, they go very bad. If we no lynch and get lucky, it could be a pretty big gain. I think the chances of things going

perfectly wrong

are pretty low, and a 3 man team seems like the most probable set-up anyways. I think I'm pro-no lynch.

[SpyreX]

With the 1-kills each night the only caveat would be that IF there are two kills tonight we're boned on a couple fronts.

I see that as highly unlikely, however.

So, I'll go ahead and be that guy

Vote: No Lynch

I want to reread with my full tinfoil hat on. Hopefully that'll be tonight/tomorrow because I'm lookin like V/LA from Thurs/Sun

[Rishi]

Sounds like most people are for this.

Vote: No Lynch

[Vi]

Vote Count:

No Lynch (L-2) ~ SpyreX, Rishi

Minimum (L-5)

Not Voting:

bionicchop2, Huntress, iamausername, Jahudo, CF Riot, Moriarty147,

Rishi, SpyreX

[size=0]bionicchop2 - 1 | Huntress - 1 | iamausername - 1 | Jahudo - 0 | CF Riot - 0 | Moriarty147 - 2 | Rishi - 0 | SpyreX - 0[/size]

First Deadline Review: Sunday, April 5 2009
Current Deadline: Thursday, April 9 2009

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Don't forget Rule 4. With 8 alive, it takes 4 to prevent any other majority.
I know the rules are really long and detailed, but that's because I wanted to be prepared for as many possible nitpicky situations as I could get.

[Jahudo]

Moriarty hasn't checked in yet, we should see if ze has anything interesting to add, but I can see where the risk of a no lynch can turn into a benefit. Plus i've been 0-4 on reading people this game

Happy Birthday Vi!

[Huntress]

Happy Birthday Vi

Wishy-washiness, thy name is Huntress.

I'm not going to make a decision without thinking it through first, and I was too tired to do that then.

Is it too soon to talk about a mass claim?

Not if you're scum, but for the rest of us, yes.

I wondered who was going to be first to try and make something of that.

Actually I don't think it's too early to talk about it if we really are in lylo, which we more or less are if we have a group of three scum, but perhaps you know otherwise? Why don't you think it's a good idea? When do you think would be a better time?


Having thought about a No lynch I've come to the conclusion that the ones who have most to gain from it are the scum, especially if one or more of them have been attracting attention. Or maybe it's just seeing that my two top suspects are the first to vote for it that is putting me off for the moment.

Huntress, weren't you going to make a post yesterday? Or were you reading just to catch up?

Yes, I was going to post something about SpyreX, Rishi and a couple of others, but I didn't get it finished in time. I'll do it when I've checked back to see if the last two reveals affect my views at all.

[CF Riot]

Having thought about a No lynch I've come to the conclusion that the ones who have most to gain from it are the scum.

Elaborate.

[SpyreX]

Actually I don't think it's too early to talk about it if we really are in lylo, which we more or less are if we have a group of three scum, but perhaps you know otherwise? Why don't you think it's a good idea? When do you think would be a better time?

If there is three allied scum then today is NOT lylo - it is mylo. There's no "more or less" about it. That is why no lynching makes sense.

Having thought about a No lynch I've come to the conclusion that the ones who have most to gain from it are the scum, especially if one or more of them have been attracting attention. Or maybe it's just seeing that my two top suspects are the first to vote for it that is putting me off for the moment.

We'll leave aside the fact you still haven't given this "case" on me, but - how does no lynching today alter any suspicion anyone has?

The only negative(s) there are is 1.) the fact there is a 0% chance of hanging scum today and 2.) the possibility the NK is a power role.

I'm fairly sure that is outweighed by the fact that if we lynch wrong we lose the game.

So, please elaborate - business like this does make me want to lynch. You.

[Rishi]

Actually I don't think it's too early to talk about it if we really are in lylo, which we more or less are if we have a group of three scum, but perhaps you know otherwise? Why don't you think it's a good idea? When do you think would be a better time?

If we're talking about No Lynch (which I still think is the best option), a mass claim is a horrible idea. The scum shouldn't know where the power roles are.

[Vi]

Vote Count:

No Lynch (L-2) ~ SpyreX, Rishi

Minimum (L-5)

Not Voting:

bionicchop2, Huntress, iamausername, Jahudo, CF Riot, Moriarty147
[size=0]bionicchop2 - 2 | Huntress - 0 | iamausername - 2 | Jahudo - 0 | CF Riot - 0 | Moriarty147 - 3 PROD1 0 | Rishi - 0 | SpyreX - 0[/size]

First Deadline Review: Sunday, April 5 2009
Current Deadline: Thursday, April 9 2009

-----

Moriarty147 has received his first prod of the day.

Many thanks and much love for the birthday wishes. Thank you all... for the well-wishes, and also for making this game such a success.
...I probably shouldn't say that before it's over, should I? Well, it's been a success so far at least.

[Moriarty147]

FWIW, I'm not sure if this is the norm for this forum, but on the forum where I usually play mafia on, it is customary for the mod to announce at the beginning of the day if a certain action undertaken on that day will make the game unwinnable for town from this point on.

I have not seen this done outside Semi-/Open setups on this site. ~Vi

In any order, I'm perfectly fine with the No Lynch scenario and think it's the best thing that we can do today. I'm not voting it until I can get a re-read in, which means I should vote tomorrow.

As for massclaiming today, that is a terrible idea. ESPECIALLY if we are voting no lynch. We really do not need scum targeting all the power roles this early on if it can be avoided.

FWIW (again), I'm kind of vaguely surprised that OGML/ToD was the NK and not bio...considering OGML/ToD was vaguely suspicious whereas bio had an aura of being townie (therefore an unlikely mis-lynch) *and* on top of that was also a power role.

Not sure if following down this path is a good idea, as NK speculation is pretty much Universally Bad(TM) and guaranteed to lead you into traps and mazes of WIFOM, but still, it *is* something worthy of note imho.

Oh and btw, happy (belated) birthday Vi!

[bionicchop2]

@Moriarty - I am convinced the kills are simply people not likely to be watched, protected or jailed. This is why I am suspicious of the call to massclaim from Huntress. One of the few advantages we have left is that scum don't know if we have watchers, doctors or roleblockers floating around. I can see the advantages of massclaim in some games, but I can't see how it would help in a game where all roles are listed on the front page and the number of each role is unknown.

[Vi]

Vote Count:

(unchanged)

No Lynch (L-2) ~ SpyreX, Rishi

Minimum (L-5)

Not Voting:

bionicchop2, Huntress, iamausername, Jahudo, CF Riot, Moriarty147
[size=0]bionicchop2 - 0 | Huntress - 1 | iamausername - 3 PROD0 0 | Jahudo - 1 | CF Riot - 1 | Moriarty147 - 0 PROD1 1 | Rishi - 1 | SpyreX - 1[/size]

First Deadline Review: Sunday, April 5 2009
Current Deadline: Thursday, April 9 2009

-----

iamausername has received his first prod of the day.

Ah, the sound of a game screeching to a halt.