Mini 767: Cubic Mafia (Game Over!)

[caf19]

/confirm

[caf19]

You again!

Vote: Isacc

[caf19]

Why are you using past games as a means of criticism/votes?

Isn't it quite common in the random stage to reference a past game?

I'd be looking at the posts of the last ones that random voted or havent even posted yet.

To elaborate, those who vote last in the RVS have proven to be likely scum in my experience. That said my exp has been a month long

Better to start from that than from nowhere in my opinion..

Scum behaviour can take many profiles. Lurkerscum is one of them, but not the only one. You may have seen some instances of lurkerscum in previous games, but it doesn't always go that way.

[caf19]

Anyone could be scum right now. RVS is a nice way to see some voting patterns, but I much rather prefer just jumping ahead and asking questions to see how people reply when confronted early on, and then use that as a means of comparison if they come under fire later on.

Well, that's nice and all, but its another direct dodge of giving an actual answer to my question. I'm starting to notice a trend here.

I'm intrigued by this. Were you expecting a straightforward answer (a list of names, or something) at this early stage? PhillyEc was also asked a similar question recently, but you didn't say anything about his response. What is your opinion of PhillyEc's thoughts?

[caf19]

caf19: That's nice and all, but at least 4 of us can vouch that Magnus is always this....eager. He expects the town to be magical and always direct, despite the impossibility of that happening right now.

While you may be right to bring this up, the dismissive tone of this excerpt worries me somewhat. "That's nice and all..." as if it was dumb of me to bring it up in the first place. You seem a bit eager to quell the points made against magnus.

Thanks Rice. That was the most useful post ever. Then again, I'm bored and relatively useless in games until discussion picks up, and this talk between Noc, Magnus, and Isacc is about to put me to sleep with boredom.

Again, I find the condescending tone to be unconducive to further discussion, and therefore anti-town. Also, I find your dismissal of the Noc/Magnus/Isacc issue to be exceptionable: it's a central part of the day's discussion so far. If you don't think it is heading anywhere productive, why not start some threads of discussion of your own instead of just crushing what is there?

I'll agree that RBT does need to give further opinions though. RBT: So, what scumtells from the random stage have you noticed?

Yes, I was expecting a straightforward answer, in order to see how he reacts to this questioning, to see if he's thrown off base. Dodging the question does not allow us to guage him later on in comparison, which he has suggested doing to the players. In other words, he is not only dodging the question, but avoiding us from getting reads on him, as a direct result of that which he has already helpfully explained to us. (unless, of course, he intends to form a trend of dodging questions, which is much more problematic in determining his allignment)

That said, once his dodging was indicated, he did answer the question, which brings up an issue of why he dodged in the first place, as it is still problematic since it sticks with the above.

I see. However, I can't agree that it was unreasonable to say that anyone could be scum at that stage, because it's pretty much true, anyone

could

be scum - I'd have given a similar answer. Am I to take from this that you don't think anyone could be scum, and you have narrowed it down to a certain group of people?

I note that your original question didn't ask Noc to give a few examples of scumtells, it said 'who do you think is scum and why' or words to that effect. This is a polarising way of phrasing the question, leaving him really with the 'all or nothing' option-set of either saying someone is scum or not. Having presented him with such a narrow set of options, I don't think you can complain when he opts to take the (more reasonable) middle ground by naming a couple of minor scumtells. Your case on Noc is not very strong, imo.

[caf19]

You're also up in the air.

Reasons would be nice.

Lulz, what case? I don't have a case.
I never called nocmen scum.

My, you do like to polarise things. Cases don't come simply in the form of stating "X is scum!" One might be tempted to think that the following posts...

Well, that's nice and all, but its another direct dodge of giving an actual answer to my question. I'm starting to notice a trend here.

Yes, I was expecting a straightforward answer, in order to see how he reacts to this questioning, to see if he's thrown off base. Dodging the question does not allow us to guage him later on in comparison, which he has suggested doing to the players. In other words, he is not only dodging the question, but avoiding us from getting reads on him, as a direct result of that which he has already helpfully explained to us. (unless, of course, he intends to form a trend of dodging questions, which is much more problematic in determining his allignment)

That said, once his dodging was indicated, he did answer the question, which brings up an issue of why he dodged in the first place, as it is still problematic since it sticks with the above.

btw,

hos: nocmen

you were mentioning conclusions about isacc's post?

hey, nocmen, how about you answer my questions!

unvote
vote: nocmen

Out of spite for not answering.

...might constitute a case, or as close to a case as it's possible to muster in the first 3 or 4 pages. You may have largely renounced your suspicions of Nocmen now, but from my point of view making my last post, he was clearly your top suspect at that point. Even though the vote may have been for pressure, it still indicates you found him suspicious enough to warrant pressuring.

That said, your comments are interesting. I presented him with a narrow set of options? Would you rather I allowed him to include people not in the game? Do you consider there to be more options?

You misunderstand. The narrow set of options you provided was when you asked Nocmen to say who he thought was scum. Not who had done anything suspicious at that early stage, but who was scum. You effectively gave Noc two options: say someone is scum on a very limited set of evidence, or not call anyone scum ('anybody could be scum') and incur your wrath for supposed question dodging. When he gave some minor suspicions, you criticised him for not doing that straight away, when in fact the reason for that was the initial phrasing didn't give him the option to do so.

@Ca19 But, I have. I have found annoying people or pissing them off gets faster results. So, I did something obtrusive but not inherently scummy to move conversation to something I care to talk about.

And, er, what would this subject be? The post this quotation comes from talks mostly about meta reads on yourself, which doesn't really amount to scumhunting. From your posts so far, I find it hard to tell who you find suspicious. Please enlighten me.

[caf19]

I'm going to look at avenues other than magnus now, let's see:

I'm worried by the amount of people saying something along the lines of "I'm going to wait a while before accusing people". This isn't a useful position to take, as it allows scum to hang around without expressing any meaningful opinions before pouncing on whoever they think is the easiest lynch. I know it hasn't been the easiest ever start to a day, which I think is because nobody has done anything 'obvious' that we can all comment on, but that isn't an excuse just to sit back and cruise until something really obvious does come along. Some culprits of this, IMO:

- PhillyEc says "Lets see things develop a bit more before we bring down the heavy duty artillery". Fair enough, but some light artillery might not be amiss, as you haven't really scumhunted at all yet. You said you might go after lurkers, which isn't necessarily a strategy I would agree with, but you haven't actually done that, or anything else really. Active lurker.

- Beyond Birthday says:

I do percents or some such attack on everyone periodically. I am impossible to read on who I am hunting.

That doesn't seem to be a very useful method of playing - staying impossible to read doesn't really help the other members of the town. If we can't know what you're thinking, there's nothing to stop you simply hopping on whatever wagon takes your fancy later in the day. In other words, I hope that one of those occasions where you post your percents/whatever is coming up soon...

- Riceballtail, Southland has been replaced now. Got anywhere better to put your vote?

Those three are the people I have my eye on right now.

[preview edit: Nocmen has just posted something of a similar general sentiment. I agree wholeheartedly]
---

What I don't like is that caf seems to say a lot of what walnut does. Not much new to the table, IMO.

Well, yes, I did agree with quite a lot of what Walnut said; I noticed that myself while I was posting. I will state that I don't agree with Walnut's thesis that BB has been undermining magnus or setting him up. On the contrary, I feel BB has been quick to defend magnus.

[caf19]

Caf19 continues to earn himself a "meh" status, as he has decided to ignore me for now.
@Caf19: what if I'm scum? Why can't you broaden your suspicions?

I felt a bit better about you after your explanation of what you were doing with Nocmen, and I also felt that line of discussion was coming to its natural end. Time to consider other things.

If you're scum? Well, I'm sure I'll find you out eventually if you are. As for broadening my suspicions, that's exactly what I was doing by looking at some other people. Solely focusing on you would be a more narrow-minded method of scumhunting, surely.

Post 119 is somewhat strange in general, though, as it constitutes another flip of opinion back to suspecting Noc again. In accordance, it appears that your previous retraction of Noc-suspicion was a 'test' to see how people reacted, with the correct response being to suspect you for it... so the suspicion of Noc was a test, and then the non-suspicion of Noc was a further test? How am I to know that this most recent FoS of Nocmen isn't another test, as opposed to being genuine this time? Constant application of these 'tests' basically puts you in a position where you can change your opinion to anything you want, in the vein of "Oh that last post was actually a test and you failed!" I would prefer a more transparent approach from you.

[caf19]

Scum, if the object of a joke (which ends in there being voting) causes their percent to be raised by 1% (at least on day one) if they over react. In other words, if Nocmen has posted something similar to PhilyEc's post, I would have found him the slightest bit more suspicious. However, I don't. He handled it well, in a town "I'm sure this will be explained" manner. (Though, not in those words, per se.)

So, do you find PhilyEc suspicious for his condemnatory reaction to your omgus? You seem to be using the tactic solely to judge Nocmen and ignoring the reactions of others.

Personally, I didn't find it overtly scummy, but I did find it slightly weird, which is something your posts have struck me as several times. I'm still not sure whether you are more concerned with finding scum or just messing around and confusing people.

Anyway, PhilyEc continues to bother me. It's just so easy to pull people up for something obvious like Omgus, as he did in his last post. His tone also seems quite assured ("care to redeem yourself before I'm completely convinced you're mafia?"), which makes me think he's planning to push further. Possible scum behaviour.

As for RBT, the "I've posted more in this game on average" comment seems to imply an unwillingness to help the town by contributing more often. But on rereading I don't see quite the same jumpiness, willingness to attack people for obvious reasons, as I do in PhilyEc.

I'd say Phily is in danger of getting my vote now, and needs to address my points and make a more decent attempt at scumhunting. It's pretty impossible to get a read on MafiaSSK, Flame (being replaced I know) or Trumpet at this stage - I would really like to get something from them before I commit.

[preview edit: I see SSK has voted. Could you explain what you mean by 'aggressive' in this sense, and why it is a scumtell? I've played with aggressive townies before, and they're just remorseless and argumentative by their nature and it seems largely independent of role.]

[caf19]

@ Dourgrim, the "I didn't find it overtly scummy" paragraph was actually referring to BB's initial omgus vote, not Phily's reaction. I guess I didn't phrase that very clearly.

[caf19]

(I believe 3 people found that post EXTREMELY scummy, not just me)

Really? Nocmen asked if BB actually had reasons for doing so or not. magnus_orion said "??". I'd say those are reactions of finding it maybe potentially scummy, but mainly just a weird move. Which I think is an acceptable reaction to what was quite an unexpected action. You are the only one I can find who reacted by finding it extremely scummy. Walnut's 127 doesn't really come into it.

I see you retracted the "extremely" part in 176, but that doesn't really excuse you, imo. You still mischaracterised others' reactions somewhat, and I'm not sure I buy your excuse. The rate of posts misleading you? I think you know better than that.

1) It would bother you wheter town or scum thus why mention it?

I find this point worrying too. I don't think he said anything to make you believe that it would 'bother' him regardless of your alignment. If it bothers someone, it generally means it makes them think of you as a bit more scummy. It looks like you're just trying to brush him off with a weak argument here - don't understand why you didn't just stick with point 2, which is more valid.

What questions are you trying to ask me? You seem suspicious of me for not answering them, whatever they are.

I wanted you to provide some kind of an explanation for what I saw as your scummy behaviour, and try to scumhunt more earnestly instead of just popping in occasionally to attack something really obvious. The first point you have addressed, although I'm not really happy with the results. the second one, you seem to have started to address more recently. I'm not really sure that magnus has been repeating himself with a criminal frequency, though. I would be more worried that magnus hasn't given a lot of reasons for voting you, but you don't seem to mention that

Anyway, I don't think it makes much sense for me not to be voting anymore. Phily just doesn't seem to be approaching the game from an honest, town viewpoint.

Unvote, vote PhilyEc

We still need material from trumpet obv, but he says he's getting to it now which is good.

Other stuff:
BB, your percentage scale seems to have everyone on a rather similar percentage. Are we meant to take the percents seriously?

I am not interested in the Phily lynch. Look at his join date, note how he was pretty much the first person to voice an opinion on anything much and got slammed for it

Which bit of Phily's play are you talking about here? The attack on BB's Omgus vote?

[caf19]

@Caf19: The initial post that PhilyEC made that people reacted to was #42:

Nocmen wrote:
Who do you think is most likely to be scum and why?


Hmm..I'd be looking at the posts of the last ones that random voted or havent even posted yet. Scum aint too eager to stick out D1 page 2 so that be where my suspicions lay atm as for someone in particular, I think its not a good idea to throw names about just yet.

Ah, right. That doesn't feature much in my suspicions of Phily any more. I thought it was worth an eyebrow-raise at the time, but bigger and more important things happened in the thread, so I moved on. Now, I'm voting Phily based on his extended period of active lurking (that's not so far from the 'playing it safe' that you mentioned), and his jumping on an easy and obvious action and subsequent explanation that I don't really buy.

[caf19]

Tie that into the fact that I've been distracted doing other things. When I skimmed the thread I picked out the most obvious scum tell and brought it up. My contribution when unfortunately unable to keep up with thread. I'm pretty caught up and I still think the action I pointed out was extremely scummy, what you call 'obvious'.

Meh, quite a few people had a 'distracted' start to the game. You were the only one who compounded it by returning with some noticeably scummy actions. I still disagree with your analysis of BB's action as very scummy. Scum don't act like that, committing obvious tells. They usually try to blend into the town, trying to look approachable and pro-town while secretly advancing their own interests. I could see how BB's action can be scummy in context as part of an ongoing effort to confuse the town with his antics, but you didn't see it that way.

@Magnus
Who arent you suspicious of? Rather than aggressive gameplay it seems like random mud hurling till you hit a bullseye, your explanation is something scum would most likely fabricate for their suspicions being so random. Throwing my opinion in on the approach of Magnus' approach to the game~.

Perhaps I've got my scum-goggles on, but your shift to aggressively and assuredly attacking someone else reeks of trying to save your own butt by building a loud case on someone else. I've found magnus to be a highly confounding player with his 'tests' that I talked about previously and his eagerness to suspect people. However, I'm not sure whether that is indicative of scumminess or simply his energetic playstyle - that is something it will apparently take a while to work out. I'm willing to let him live for now.

[caf19]

Though definitely not cleared, Phily's behavior doesn't condemn him. However Magnus and caf, you two probably need a better reason to attack Phily. I do like voting Phily till he returns to scum hunting (as far as I can see).

If Phily does come up with some thought-out scumhunting, I will analyse it fairly and not just assume he's scum fabricating it. I like my vote for now though.

Anyway I think I missed a couple of interesting posts over the last few days so here are some comments:

Phily... I'm rereading the (now finished) game where we were both town to see if I can get a read on him relative to how he's playing here. Seems about the same, so probably a nulltell.

Ah, we have another fan of the meta defence in the game. Do you have anything to say on the stuff Phily has done specifically in this game?

Re: magnus/Dourgrim: ...why do I feel like you're both going to flip town?

Er, yes, why do you?

I'm also a bit wary of magnus trying to string lynches together by saying that Isacc is scummy if Phily is town. did you ever explain why that is the case, magnus?

[caf19]

Welcome to the game Seraphim!

1. Neither philly nor issac are lynch worthy at this point. If we were forced into making a lynch this instant with no further discussion, I'd go with philly. But we should interrogate the suspect, gather information on them, and collect data. This way we are better informed once we decide on a lynch.

Hmm. This seems less certain than before, when you stated your sureness of Phily being scum a couple of times. What's changed?

I'll be interested to see what Isacc has to say to your argument, obv.

[caf19]

magnus appears to be progressively cooling on his suspicion toward Phily, while his suspicion of players such as RBT and particularly Dourgrim has continued to grow, in the latter case to a point where he is "reasonably confident you're scum now". Yet his vote remains on Phily. This makes no sense to me - there's no point in having a pressure vote on someone if you're going to alleviate that pressure through posts saying you're thinking about whether Phily might be a mislynch, etc.

That was an attack? Didn't look like one to me.

It's getting hard to ignore your refusal to make even a cursory attempt at explanations or analysis. Please try harder.

[caf19]

No, I just can't post on philly because he hasn't posted. There's nothing new to comment on.

Well, yes, he hasn't posted which is why I haven't really mentioned him recently. You, however, started vocally having doubts about whether he was the right lynch, which is why I brought up the point.

Even more confident that philly is scum than dourgrim.

K, well as long as you're still willing to confirm this then it's alright.

I dismissed them as semantics because you couldn't directly support that your interpretation of my post was correct. (Because its not. Otherwise, since you are "sick of me babbling" about it, you would have gone back, picked out the post where I say something along the lines of, "I started this conversation." as opposed to the actual post where I say something along the lines of "I engaged you in the conversation." The problem being, I can engage in a conversation without starting one.)

I just went back and found the quotation in question, it goes as follows:

This conversation acts as investigation into how I play only because

I

engaged

you

. That was a concious decision on my part. In other words, I could have chosen to ignore you. If I had, you would not be gathering information about me now.

It doesn't imply that you started the conversation, as you are being accused of, per se. It does, however, give off the strange vibe that Dourgrim somehow 'owes you one' for responding to his vote and not just ignoring it - when, in fact, responding to it is standard and expected of you. Had you ignored him you surely would have been pulled up on that in-thread and further suspected. So you can't really characterise responding to Dourgrim as a pro-active, town play on your part.

There are many strange things about your play, I really can't fathom you...

[caf19]

I do believe we have a deadline to meet... though I'm not sure on ts status.

Deadline is the 24th, so about 8 days away.

SSK, I can't address your case if you only post 1 line... please explain why I'm aggressive scum.

[caf19]

UNVOTE; VOTE:Caf

Was it something I said?

[caf19]

Unsubstantiated cases are fail, but there's not really anything else I can say about it, so I'll move on to a couple of other things.

Dourgrim is town. (Your last reaction changed my mind completely

Dare I ask what it is about his last post that looks so town?

@ Walnut, reading through your posts I am having some trouble discerning who you actually suspect right now. Please enlighten me.

[caf19]

@Caf: I am voting for Seraphim, am happy with that vote, and encourage others to join me. I would roughly divide the players into three groups right now: those who have posted considerably and I have a slight positive read on, those who have posted considerably and I have a mild scum read on, and those who have not posted much at all. The last group is the one I am most interested in right now, and it includes RBT, ToD, MafiaSSK and Seraphim. Part of the purpose of Day 1 is to get everyone talking and get a chance to get a feel for all of the players, and I don't want us to be going into Day 2 with a whole bunch of people who have not posted much. Of those in the scummy leaning group, I would probably vote for Isacc first- he seems to have been following someone else's views a lot.

Hmm. Lurkervoting is not always the most productive course of action. Would you actually be in favour of lynching Seraphim if he continued to lurk for the rest of the day?

So, caf19, who is scum, in your opinion?

My vote's still on Phily and I haven't seen any reasons to take it off... if not Phily, then there are a few people I might consider voting, but I'm not entirely sure about any of them right now.

[caf19]

I see Walnut to be likely scum.

Plz explain why this is the case, kthx.

If no one else was going anywhere near him, I wouldn't waste my vote there.

Well, y'know, nobody is going near him at the moment either. I guess I just don't see the utility of your vote and I think it could be better put to use elsewhere.

Fair point on Phily. I guess I felt I had a decent read on him from his early posts, but had overlooked that he has not posted much more recently.

Obviously a few people have jumped on this line already, but I will chip in that I think it's weird for a slightly different reason. To me, Phily is differentiated from the other lurkers on your list in that he did contribute for a time, enough for people to form opinions on him. So a natural response to that question would echo that, instead of just agreeing with magnus and saying that you should have put him on your lurkerlist. It makes you seem a bit over-eager to appear agreeable.

Still here and still rereading.

Please be quick, deadline isn't far away.

Mod

, is it time for a prod on Phily yet?

[caf19]

Mod

, BB is voting for Riceballtail, not me.

Fixed. Thank you.

[caf19]

If Walnut isn't scum, I would suggest Caf19 is scum with Magnus Orion.

Magnus found, in his post on the last page, a question Caf asked that he called scummy. Caf never responded and Magnus never pursued it. This is scummy on both.

I did respond to the question posed in that post, actually. Looking back, it's possible I misinterpreted somewhat and answered the question more 'at face value' rather than with reference to the magnus/Dourgrim debate. I don't think the accusations of me 'switching positions' on said debate are very strong. Asking magnus for reasons why he switched to calling Dourgrim town doesn't imply suspicion of Dour or a will for magnus still to be voting him. I asked about it because magnus's switch was rather abrupt and wasn't explained in much detail. I think it was a perfectly reasonable question to ask.

Anyway, I'm not really sure what to do with Phily now that he's being replaced, but I guess a lot will depend on how his replacement acts. A Walnut lynch wouldn't be terrible, but before taking it any further I still want RBT's reasons for voting. Her last post willfully ignores my previous request for them. RBT, how are we to know that you genuinely suspect Walnut and this isn't just another of your 'wagoning for reactions/the sake of it' wheezes?

And lets try not to lynch anyone 'til seraphim talks some.
I know that suggesting this is normally considered a scumtell, but with recent circumstances I think its a protown move. I'd like to get at least something out of seraphim, so that we're not flying completely blind on him day 2.

This.

[caf19]

I'm starting to think that I'm not particularly happy with the Walnut wagon. The behaviour of those on or close to the wagon doesn't inspire me with confidence. Apart from the obvious issue of RBT's refusal to state her reasons for jumping on, there's also the fact that Trumpet has basically lurked through its entire development, not to mention SSK who has only posted a couple of near-useless one-liners on the subject. There's also been a bit of questionable logic from his other detractors, the result of which results in cracks forming in the reasoning for this wagon.

BB's case on Walnut in particular leaves a lot to be desired. Most of his posts on the subject are just agreeing with Isacc instead of expressing any original thought on the matter.

Also, something about magnus's approach rubs me the wrong way:

Don't get me wrong, I think walnut is scum, but I what I really want is more data, being, walnut's allignment.

This sentence, unless I'm misunderstanding it, seems to advocate Walnut's lynch, as that will provide the info of his alignment. This goes against the doubts about Walnut's scumminess that you express in the next post:

I said, if walnut's scum, you shouldn't have a problem.
So, the one who is considering my accusation valid is, in fact, giving it strength, because its quickly ruling out that walnut will flip scum.

How can you simultaneously be sure you want Walnut lynched, and think there to be such a great chance of it being a scum-driven mislynch? It's contradictions such as this one that are worrying me.


Thing is, deadline is staring us in the face and critical mass is looming down upon us. For that reason, I think Walnut should claim now. It's barely more than 36 hours to deadline and we need time to assess the claim.

---

Your theory is flawed. Scum rarely, if ever, vote in unision this way unless it lead directly to a win. Not to say its impossible, but it just...doesn't happen. Scum are too paranoid.

I agree that scum don't usually follow 'eggs in one basket' strategies, but there's almost definitely at least one scum on the wagon, so if he's town then it's a good place to start.

Also, BB=scum refutes more than half of your statements about me/in reference to me.

I agree. Magnus has done this type of sudden switch more than once today.

[caf19]

I fixed that last quote... It had my name in the upper left, instead of BB's.

My bad.

The fact that I usually consider the possibility that I might be wrong is:
1. Contributing to me not voting walnut at this time, along with previously mentioned matters of the claim and seraphim.
2. Allowing me to avoid confirmation bias in this situation
3. proof that I'm not trying to convince you all of anything, but letting you all draw conclusions yourself. (make of that what you will.)

Caf19's post is very interesting. So, you're bothered by my behavior, yet mention the exact same things I mentioned about the walnut wagon as afflicting you as well? Clarify this for me, please.

There's nothing wrong with considering the ramifications of you being right or wrong. You, however, went further than that, and assessed the likelihood of you being right/wrong in your previous two posts. And you went from wanting his alignment revealed (ie. wanting him lynched) to saying that BB's reaction was 'ruling out' Walnut being scum. And this latter comment was still surrounded by comments of "I'm not confident he's going to flip town" and "I favour the Walnut=scum one [possibility]". It's not that you merely considered the possibility of Walnut being town, it's that your opinion appeared to vary so dramatically.

[caf19]

A whole lot of quiet going on after the claim... looks a lot like there are scum happy with the situation right now.

[caf19]

Firstly, I'm eager to hear what madeofphail makes of Day 1. 'You' were my top suspect yesterday, madeofphail, so I'm particularly interested in you.

Secondly, MafiaSSK has shot up my scumdar with those flips. With approximately two words of explanation on each, he first voted magnus (a confirmed townie), then me (a townie obv), and finally Walnut (a confirmed townie). He seemed happy enough to lynch any of those three. Being laconic is one thing, but this is just voting townies repeatedly and with next to no explanation. SSK, I expect more from you today. Proper expansion on your reasoning, please - I'm not going to let you get away with how you played yesterday.

Thirdly, less lurking from everyone today plz. Seraphim, finished reading yet? Trumpet, we haven't heard from you in a while either.

[caf19]

Secondly, MafiaSSK has shot up my scumdar with those flips. With approximately two words of explanation on each, he first voted magnus (a confirmed townie), then me (a townie obv), and finally Walnut (a confirmed townie). He seemed happy enough to lynch any of those three. Being laconic is one thing, but this is just voting townies repeatedly and with next to no explanation. SSK, I expect more from you today. Proper expansion on your reasoning, please - I'm not going to let you get away with how you played yesterday.

Thirdly, less lurking from everyone today plz. Seraphim, finished reading yet? Trumpet, we haven't heard from you in a while either.

It's my playstyle. Read other games of mine and you'll learn that.

Right. So, who looks suspicious to you, given the flips we've seen?

[caf19]

The probability of Isacc being scum is way higher than that of BB being scum. He's definitely the right lynch.

I think everyone should check in before we rush to end the day though. Nocmen, Seraphim - what do you think of events thus far?

[caf19]

2) I'd watch out for Caf19. Notice his last post says I am the right lynch, but he fails to actually vote me, and asks others' opinions first. Seems like he wants to make sure he's getting on the popular wagon before he commits.

I don't want to end the day prematurely. You were at L-2 then and are at L-1 now.

[caf19]

BB is still alive, hmm.

Who'd you target last night BB?

Deleted your other two posts for you cuz I'm nice.

[caf19]

I see.

I don't have a clue this game as I thought that surely my powers would be of no more use (ie, I=dead), but based on the spookily accurate guess for the vig kill, the mafia either has a watcher, or picked up on the tell Nocmen left yesterday.

I'd say it's probably the latter.

I'll join in on the madeofphail suspicion now. Yesterday, his first post:

Beyond that, since its day two, there are two things that I like to do at the start of a new day:
1). Look at who was nightkilled, and speculate why.
2). look back at the actions of the deceased and see what made them liable to be targeted.
---------------------------------------------------
That being said, something is troubling me.
1). There were two nightkills. They had a little storyline behind each, so there is a clear distinguishment, beyond that we don't know who (or what for that matter) killed who. For example, we know that there is scum, after all it isn't a bastard game, so we could probably attribute a kill to them. But the second kill could be attributed to a variety of roles. I think it would be beneficial to see what role provided these kills. Reason being I'd rather lynch something scum or a serial killer rather than something like a vig.

This looks a lot like rolefishing, trying to find out who's the vidge. (and, as it happens, the vidge did get found...)

Then his next post:

Quite frankly, I'm not at all happy with both players doing something like this. I'm fairly sure that at least one of them is right, and so whichever one is not fakeclaiming just gave the scum (or possibly non-town aligned killing role.) a free power role kill! Not a smart move on either person's part...

Why bring power roles into scumhunting this early? You're helping out power roles early in the game!

Chastising other people for bringing power role speculation into the game... but that's exactly what he did in the previous post! It's hypocrisy, and it makes this post look like an empty attempt to look town by regurgitating a common townplay convention.

Oh, and he's got the same role as PhilyEc.

SSK is still my number 2. He voted scum yesterday, but that doesn't really make him more town because Isacc was obvscum who was definitely going down by that point.

That said, obviously I don't have much of a read on Seraphim (or KoC, although his predecessor did at least contribute).

[caf19]

I apologize for the misconception, I wasn't trying to commit roleouting , what I was trying to do was something that ends up being helpful later in the game. I am trying to detect kill patterns. I suppose I should have been more direct with this when I made my statement. If we can find kill patterns (mafia or serial killer or otherwise), we can have more accurate protects if there is a doc. By discussing the kill patterns, we help the doc. and possibly force the scum to kill someone else to break the pattern, so it can also help the town to confuse the mafia by constricting their nightkills by making it seem more and more likely that certain people will be protected. This will pressure the scum. Of course, this also depends on there being a doc, or similar role.

This seems a bit implausible

So, the scum has (probably) killed magnus and Nocmen. Anything you can analyse from that?

I apologize with the misconception, but lets get back to scumhunting.

Er, yes, let's. Who do you think is scum?

[caf19]

Unvote
Vote: madeofphail

Brilliant post by Seraphim here. /sarcasm

Unvote vote Sera

It's not too far from the kind of post you have infrequently made in this game...

[caf19]

Unvote
Vote: madeofphail

Brilliant post by Seraphim here. /sarcasm

Unvote vote Sera

It's not too far from the kind of post you have infrequently made in this game...

so?

I didn't see you voting yourself for making underexplained votes. It's hypocrisy.

Has Sera claimed?

Sera has 2 votes, the same number as phail currently has. Why should he claim?

[caf19]

Ok, SSK blew up my scumdar with his behaviour today.

Voting a claimed innocent child? What kind of scum would do a fakeclaim that the freakin' MOD is going to come in and discredit within the next few hours, making him an instalynch? Jeez.

The speedpush for a claim by SSK and KoC was also conducted in an anti-town manner. In my opinion, there was nowhere near enough evidence presented against Sera to warrant this, especially as you didn't even wait for him to attempt an explanation of 425. Secondly, it would hardly have hurt to wait more than five minutes for the rest of the town (BB, phail, Trumpet) to say whether or not they wanted Sera to claim.

Oh, and there's the mega-hypocrisy in the reasoning for SSK's initial vote.
And his continued voting of townies on D1, with almost no explanation for any of it.

Seriously, there's enough evidence here to lynch you twice.

Vote MafiaSSK

L-1.

KoC has joined phail on the scummy side of things. Sera is town, BB is probably town, and Trumpet is still floating in the middle regions somewhere. But I want to lynch SSK today.

[caf19]

First of all, I am keeping my vote on Seraphim because he could be a role which could communicate through the mod and have the mod post whatever he wanted.

I find this to be very unlikely. Do you still think it's likely now that the mod's posted a second confirmation in your post 467?

So you're saying that if you find somone scummy, then you won't want them to claim espsecially at L1?

No, I would, but I would also wait to see if other people actually agreed with me. Even if that would have been the case in this situation (which I don't really understand as Sera had only really made one scummy post, but whatever), it wouldn't have killed you to wait more than five minutes to make sure. As it was, the whole procedure had an incredibly rushed and improper feel to it.

No reason in the post=Gut vibe.

No, no reason in the post = a method that allows you to vote anyone you want, and then retrospectively give any reason for that vote (e.g. 'gut vibe') when asked about it later. You've done too much scummy stuff to brush it away under the blanket of 'it's my playstyle' any longer.

Right now I'd like to hear BB's take on recent events.

[caf19]

"If Knight is mafia, ssk is likely mafia."

I don't understand why you didn't say it this way round in the first place, as it would have been far more consonant with the rest of that post.

Anyway: KoC, do you approve or disapprove of an SSK lynch?

[caf19]

I wonder...I need to look back at BB's play but I wonder if D2 was a scum gambit to get BB cleared...?

It's certainly possible. I don't think it's likely though. At the start of D2 scum were having a good time; there were 3 townies and no scum down, and nobody was really suspecting Isacc. I don't know why scum would try to pull off such a dangerous gambit when they probably would have been better off not rocking the boat. Have you seen any evidence that makes it more likely to be true, or is it just a speculation?

I still like the SSK wagon.

[caf19]

There's something in 472 that is making me doubt myself...

This is really really really stupid. The mod pm'd me to say that Seraphim is indeed mod-confirmed town. This is mod interaction with the game by not letting me believe in my own theories. Fine though,

Unvote

.

Also, I'm a VT.

I was assuming that SSK had made up the story about the mod PMing him, as part of his scum-charade. However, why would the mod confirm that someone is town to a scumbag who already knows that Sera is town?

MOD

, did you really send that PM?

The mod is not a player in this game, and therefore cannot answer this question. Any communications between myself and another player are classified. Please keep any communication between the mod and yourself private.

[caf19]

Hold up, ToD. It's (presumably) LyLo. You shouldn't be voting right now, imo.

Massclaim anyone?

[caf19]

Trumpet, why are you suddenly taking the 'one of three' rule as such gospel? To me, it doesn't seem so hard and fast as to govern your vote in LyLo. Going on that policy instead of people's actual behaviour seems... counterproductive.

That said, it's noted that no scumz appear to be quickhammering. Which I'm somewhat thankful for...


I don't think there's much of a reason not to massclaim at this point - even if it does happen to turn up all-vanilla or something, we haven't lost anything. I'm fine with a popcorn-style order, with KoC going first. Any objections?

[caf19]

Isacc made that post when he knew he was going down. Therefore, its purpose will have been to confuse and WIFOM the townies into making wrong decisions in future. I don't think we should really take anything substantial from it...

Also, BB, your post on Walnut says that I might be scum buddies with magnus. But magnus was town - so how does that still make me scum?

[caf19]

madeofphail, do you object to a massclaim?

[caf19]

Wonderful.

Knight, go ahead.

[caf19]

Who should claim next, Knight?

I'll refrain from commenting until everyone has had their turn.

[caf19]

Well, since you're my preferred lynch, I say you claim next.

Vanilla here.

Trumpet, gogogo.

[caf19]

Here are a few initial thoughts:

- I still think the sensible decision is not to lynch BB today. When it comes down to it, the facts state he's the least likely scum. I'm having trouble seeing the scenario where BBscum and Isacc actually made the decision N1 to bus each other to death. If we make it to tomorrow and he's still alive then obviously we'll have to consider the possibilty, but right now I'm hoping we hit the ideal BBtown situation of lynching the blocker today, in which case the remaining scum can't really risk leaving BB alive.

- I have doubts about KoC's claim. Clearly we can't put him in the same 'probtown' category as BB, because a) doctor is a nice claim for scum due to its unconfirmability, and b) BB's claim had tangible results (death of a scumbag). Then there's the way he claimed - the blanket "I've been protecting Beyond_Birthday" without mentioning N1 until prompted to, it doesn't seem very transparent. Also, the "I attempted to protect Magnus" when it was actually Dourgrim who did it, it kinda rubs me the wrong way. Finally, having a doc makes the town seem a tad overpowered.

Those things seem pretty minor in isolation, but added together they are a serious cause for thought...

- I don't really understand where the suspicion of me is coming from - BB's is based on Wifommy analysis of Isacc's post, and KoC hasn't posted a case at all. In fact, KoC didn't really mention me at all before post 529... what's the case, KoC?

[caf19]

Actually, reading over KoC's posts just now, he does seem very scummy... he basically hopped onto every popular wagon. The suddenness of his suspicions is what is really notable.

With only one line (post 426) of suspicion expressed on Sera, he soon goes ahead and L-1 votes for the claim. It's a disproportionate action to his level of suspicion. He then tunnels on Sera until the mod confirmation, at which point he switches to SSK and declares himself willing to hammer (482) - which is rather unexpected because he'd spent most of the day agreeing with and supporting SSK on his Sera case. Again, he hasn't really expressed any extended suspicion of SSK prior to this, apart from post 477 where he basically echoes the case that I'd built up already. Now today he appears to be doing a similar thing with me - I'm apparently his top suspect despite him never having mentioned this before (see post 513, a sort of 'summary post' where he doesn't mention me

at all

).

There appears to be a strong tendency to wait until a townie makes a case on another townie, then jump on it and push it as hard as possible.

I need to reread up on Trumpet and phail, but KoC is a top suspect for now. (next post might not be for a day or two, I'm spending tomorrow in London)

[caf19]

madeofphail, what do you think? Do you agree with the suspicion of KoC? If not, who do you think is scum?

[caf19]

/bump.

madeofphail, what do you think? Do you agree with the suspicion of KoC? If not, who do you think is scum?

I would enjoy madeofphail's response.

Agreed.

Mod: can we get a prod on madeofphail?

This. Everyone has posted some kind of response to the massclaim except phail, which is why I'd like him to comment before we move on too much.

[caf19]

Sigh... I guess KoC and phail would be my top two.

KoC's claim is suspect and his play has been scummy, as I detailed before. However, I was somewhat put off by the fact that everyone (well, Trumpet and BB) immediately agreed with my suspicions. Perhaps I'm being paranoid, but that set off a small alarm bell that maybe it was the scum reinforcing my suspicions so he'd get lynched. That's why I really wanted phail to weigh in - to see whether or not he conformed to this. That said, I do still think he's the best choice, all things considered.

As for the other two, phail takes precedence due PhilyEc's scumminess followed by phail's hopping around on the rolefishing subject - and phail's never really done anything that seems overtly town, generally preferring to take the 'back seat' and let others stick their necks out. As for Trumpet, only scummy thing I can really remember him doing is switching to voting SSK out of nowhere yesterday as soon as someone (me) started to express doubt over it. Apart from that, can't find a whole lot wrong apart from his worrying tendency to lurk (but apparently phail has started to do that too...)

[caf19]

And yeah, I'm still going ahead and making the assumption that BB is telling the truth, for today at least.

[caf19]

Phail, why are you stalling on telling us who you think might be scum? You proposed a theory but then you didn't apply it yourself, it's not very satisfactory...

Also, process of elimination isn't that different from 'standard' scumhunting when you have 5 players and 2 scum. I've kinda been using it already with my elimination of BB (which technically speaking leaves the rest of you with a 2/3 chance of being scum... whoa). So, go ahead and use it if you want, but it's not an excuse to delay any longer.

[caf19]

Phail, why are you stalling on telling us who you think might be scum?

This. Surely it can't take very long to tell us who your top 1 or 2 are? At this point, speed is more important than eloquence, so out with it.

[caf19]

<-- not going to hammer right away, let's see if phail does

[caf19]

Yeah, pretty much. If that's the case, we've lost the game, so we may as well rule that scenario out now (if the game continues).

[caf19]

I don't want to hold the game up any longer.

Vote KoC

Did town lose?

[caf19]

Hi, ChannelDelibird and Lindisfarne.

[caf19]

MafiaSSK had a case on me when he was alive, he said I was aggressive. There wasn't much more to it than that.

I've been reading through Dourgrim and KoC trying to get leads. It appears that neither of them was fond of bussing (Dour tunnelled on magnus, and Knight switched from Sera to SSK). Perhaps that sheds light on Knight's strange decision to suspect me and phail over Trumpet (see 529 and 548), despite the fact that Trumpet had voted for him and nobody had quickhammered, meaning that from Knight's fake-town perspective he should have 'known' Trumpet was scum.

On the other hand, perhaps Trumpet's eagerness for Knight to die is a point in his favour. phail's behaviour towards Knight is a lot more wishy-washy: his point 2 in post 512 seems quite reluctant for Knight to die, and he doesn't really suspect KoC until 546 (when the rest of us had already said we suspected him).

I'd say the scum-gauge is tipping about 70% towards phail at the start of today. It's quite a strange position to be in having to contend with two replacements though - eager to see what you two have to say.

[caf19]

Mod can we get a prod on Lindisfarne? Thanks.

[caf19]

(I'm assuming it is Lind that I am replacing, as both Channel and caf are active.)

It is indeed. Lind's predecessor was Trumpet, btw.

[caf19]

Lylo sux. I've reached the ol' LyLo uncertain oscillation-fest, hopping between Phily/phail's scumminess and Trumpet's early absences, wondering which is more of a cause for worry... I'll be interested to see who Delibird comes out suspecting, that could help to tip the scales.

Mastin's analysis highlighted to me a couple of points that I find interesting:

- the wagon on Phily D1 that evaporated after a while. After Kairyuu posted the votecount with Phily in the lead (252), Isacc swiftly unvoted (259). Bizarrely, his next post (275) reaffirms his Phily-suspicion:

Philly has done nothing to make himself seem more town. However, Magnus's request is fair and I think waiting for him to make an attempt at being protown is a good idea (though didn't we do this before...?)

Magnus's case on my vote on Philly: I remember this accusation...it was placed on me already...but hey, I'll argue it again. There was a specifically damning post by Philly in my eyes, which came before Magnus's post. Thus, I felt that a vote had been earned. If you notice, Magnus's voting post was only a few minutes before mine, and I do not precisely remember now (it was how long ago?) but I think I had been writing it while Magnus posted.

Anyways, the other fact is, it's all well and good to speculate this except that I actually find him scummy. If he flips town, that'll be unfortunate, but I have no real evidence to believe he will at this point.

Yet, he doesn't vote Phily again. In subsequent posts, Isacc switches to tunnelling on Walnut. As for the other Phily-voters, BB unvotes for some reason (implies he's becoming more suspicious of magnus) in 299, and magnus joined in the late-developing Walnut wagon. In the end it was largely Phily's lurking that saved him D1 as opposed to mass scum action, but Isacc's switch to Walnut is nevertheless notable for its swift and total nature.

- The problem with the Walnut wagon is that both Phily and Trumpet were largely absent for its formation. This is particularly irksome in the case of Trumpet, who was actually voting Walnut at the time. Scum staying behind the scenes? There's no real way to tell. Bah. Thing is, it was obviously scum-led because most of the people on it were following Isacc's substantial case to some extent. If Isacc was saving Phily's ass here, he did a very good job.

- As for the Isacc wagon, I don't think we can take much from who was or wasn't on it. Only the most foolish scumbuddy would have tried to defend him, as he was obviously going to be the lynch.

---

Regarding yesterday, I want to know what the two of you think about Trumpet's eagerness to get Knight lynched. Is it a town tell or a bus? (obviously both of you will be somewhat biased in your views, but it can't hurt to make the case anyway).

Personally, I was worried yesterday that Trumpet's "let's end the day quickly" spiel was a scum ploy to get a townie lynched swiftly, but now that KoC's flipped scum I guess I'd consider it a town tell. The overconfident tone (e.g. "Let's lynch him already!" in 565) worries me somewhat, as it could imply that he already knew KoC was scum and was trying to seem as obviously protown as possible. However, it does strike me that Trumpet-scum could as easily have pushed a lynch on, say, phail.

As you can tell, I'm still vacillating rather uselessly but phail/Delibird still seems a scummier player. ChannelD, make your case and convince me.

[caf19]

Also, I wonder why the scum decided to kill BB at last. They could still have blocked him and killed someone else. I guess maybe it's because he became the least suspected player... who knows.

[caf19]

I'll put mine on Channel too, although I'm not sure how useful an FoS-count will be seeing as there are only three of us left.

Basically our hands may be forced by the impending deadline. Channel, the onus is on you to make a case and convince me, and unfortunately you only have a few days to do it.

[caf19]

well i'm not hammering, let's have a read through.

[caf19]

I have something in the pipe. I gotta go to bed now, but I'll post it tomorrow.

[caf19]

Well, here I am. I don't plan on taking too much time on this decision whatever the case, because now that it's down to one of you two it basically becomes an 'interpret my past actions in a better light' contest.

The form of CDB's case somewhat surprises me, because instead of assessing both the other players, he just picks one of them, does a PBPA and votes him. It seems to indicate that the assumption of Trumpet's scumminess was there from the start, which it shouldn't have been from a town perspective.

A lot of CDB's points are naturally relating to Trumpet's lack of content early on. Of course, Trumpet's lurking is highly irritating. He did post this in 193 though:

Basically, I tend to post more if I think I know what I'm doing, which doesn't happen much until late in the game.

which seems to have characterised his personality in this game quite well. In Mini 751, he has a broadly similar behaviour pattern as town. I don't think we can logically call it a scumtell in this game.

As for Mastin's case on Phily/phail, it's comprehensive but a lot of it seems to be 'nit-picking', focusing perhaps unnecessarily on very minor transgressions. I gather that this is Mastin's standard style of play, but nevertheless I'd prefer to rely on my own judgment... that said, there is a clear difference in personality between ToD and phail. Looking through Trumpet's posts, they are generally infrequent and sparse but full of sound logic when they do appear. The posts of Phily and phail tend to be more frequent, but regularly contain questionable logic or lines of thought. Let's take post 399.

I think Issac is scum because my conclusions have been:
1). BB isn't lying. I'm pretty sure for a few reasons.

a). he specifically calls out a specific person, scum don't try to get a mislynch so specifically (at least not in my experience).

I).This is because they will nightkill strong players who will not be mislynched easily. After reading the flavor, it does make it clearer that magnus was the mafia kill, and this matter proves this point. Mafia don't care who gets mislynched, as long as somebody does. Mafia generally don't press incredibly hard on someone's lynch.

b). He claims in rebuttal, instead of just trying to undermine the claim of BB.
II).A pro-town power role claiming in Day 2 is really suspscious if it is unprovoked. It looks like they are just trying to gain immunity early in the game. But Isacc defend himself with a claim. This seems to suggest that even he aknowledges that BB is really the power role watcher, and that he scrambles to think of a semi-likely explanation to defend himself. But Isacc goes on to believe that He is scum, even though he practically aknowledged that BB is the watcher.
---------------------------------------------

But just for the sake of argument, lets present ourselves with the hypothetical situation of Isacc telling the truth. In which case I have a question:
Why would he investigate BB in the first place? What makes BB seem like a likely scum candidate worthy of being watched?

This longish extract seems to miss the real reasons why he should be voting Isacc (which Trumpet managed to sum up in one line, and phail had even referred to in his previous post). Why post this, then? To give the impression of a townie thinking through his plays? To pad out a distancing/bussing manoeuvre?

Post 424 as well,

well, Im suspicious of Mafia SSK, after looking at his posts, he seems rather opportunistic. Not really putting much into his own words, so that seems like wagoning to me. and if we look at he Isacc lynch(who was actually scum), we see:

The probability of Isacc being scum is way higher than that of BB being scum. He's definitely the right lynch.

I think everyone should check in before we rush to end the day though. Nocmen, Seraphim - what do you think of events thus far?

QFT. Vote Issaac

so, if he is scum, then he kinda wagoned his partner. this may have been for distancing purposes, or because at that point Isacc was practically obv scum. After he votes isacc putting him at L-1, this happens:

Alright. Isacc is scum.

Vote: Isacc

Isacc then turns up scum.

----------------------------------------------
I'm not so worried about Seraphim, But I got a hunch about mafiassk. I, like seraphim, don't liek to use meta as a defense, because if that became widespread, people would establish invincible metas in order to gain lynch immunity. For example, a random player could constantly write off any slips due to "playing style". But this one-line posting and opportunism makes me nervous.

Furthermore, that doesn't help scumhunting to just agree and vote. I think that If mafiassk is scum, he joined the isacc wagon in order to distance himself.

This is strange logic again - he appears simply to be picking someone at random off the Isacc wagon and suspecting them. He can't even come up with a good reason why SSK is scum - it's just a "hunch". Again, doesn't seem very protown.

The question is, is this the mark of a scumbag, or merely of a townie who presented his arguments in a clumsy manner? I think the fact that Phily/phail/CDB has cycled through several players, all of whom have shown something scummy about them, is an indication of the former. Even CDB doesn't seem too enthusiastic about scumhunting. At least I'm confirmed so I have an excuse to slack off (lulz) - CDB has some serious convincin' to do, but he seems to be approaching it as if it were a chore. This to me is more indicative of scum who had to fabricate everything, rather than town who is assured of his own veracity. I take Mastin's eagerness as a nulltell because as far as I can tell it's his meta, but I don't think CDB is always this reticent.

--

So, the razor's edge. Last time I was here, it was a similar situation - one player was talkative but infrequently committed suspicious acts, whereas the other was just null and lurky. Naturally, I voted the scummy guy and got it wrong. Well, here I am again, making the same mistake again, but I feel like I might have got it right this time.

Vote CDB

This game's been a lot of fun by the way.

[caf19]

Congrats townies.

I'm fairly happy with my performance this game.