Mini 739 ~ Mafia Jailbreak, Game Over

[Rishi]

There's no point in presenting a case on Huntress right now. I already gave my reasons for being suspicious of Huntress - and I'm sorry if they weren't sufficient for Jahudo. Just because I wasn't long-winded doesn't mean my case was weak.

If Huntress wasn't scum, the game would be over right now. I find a Jahudo, SpyreX and BC scum team unlikely. We really don't have a compelling reason to believe there are two scum teams.

Vote: Huntress

[Vi]

Vote Count:

Huntress ~ Jahudo, SpyreX, bionicchop2, Rishi

Rishi (L-3) ~ CF Riot

Minimum (L-4)

Not Voting:

Huntress, Moriarty147,

Rishi

[size=0]bionicchop2 - 0 PROD1 2 | Huntress - 0 PROD1 6 | Jahudo - 0 | CF Riot - 0 PROD1 2 | Moriarty147 - 0 PROD1 9 PROD2 2 | Rishi - 1 PROD1 8 | SpyreX - 0[/size]

-----

One by one, the sad sacks who were still tryin' to sort out the scum started pointin' to Officer Huntress. They knew they were gettin' outnumbered. You could see the sweat on X-Spyre's forehead as the tension worked its way under his skin.

Finally, they agreed to let 'er have it. BANG! ZOOM! Right in the kisser. Officer Rishi, the mug who fired the shot, reached toward the folded-over body and dug for ID. He found it, all right. He didn't have to say anything - the pale look on his face did the talkin' for him.

It was over. They waited for it. Any minute now.

...That "any minute" felt like it lasted for hours. At long last, B.C. got the cahones to stand up and walk out the door, staggering-like. And the rest of 'em watched... and when he got out to the hall and nobody heard bloody murder, they all got up too with shaken looks on their faces.

--

Huntress,

Vanilla Townie

, Capwned D4

--

-------

You read that right. The game's not over.
Night actions need to come in by the end of

Saturday, April 18

. Capice?

[Vi]

The smell of fresh rot barged through the meeting room door and ran Officer Moriarty down like a summer lawn as he just happened to be standing outside. Twenty minutes and a full can of Lysol later, two ID cards were on the table and the Officers who were still left smiled for the first time in days.

--CF Riot,

Mafia Roleblocker

, Did His Best Jahudo Imitation N4--

--Jahudo,

Serial Killer

, Did His Best CF Riot Imitation N4--

~Day 5 Start~

Vote Count:

Minimum (L-3)

Not Voting:

bionicchop2, Moriarty147, Rishi, SpyreX
[size=0]bionicchop2 - 0 | Moriarty147 - 0 | Rishi - 0 | SpyreX - 0[/size]

First Deadline Review: Saturday, May 2 2009
Current Deadline: Wednesday, May 6 2009

-----

That choice of font for the reveals is so ugly. I've got to change that before the next game.

[Jahudo]

f

[CF Riot]

f

[bionicchop2]

I jailed Spyrex, but seeing as there was a RB, it means nothing.

[SpyreX]

I officially dont know what the hell this game.

I will be rereading.

[bionicchop2]

While we wait for the other 2 to show up, I would strongly suggest a no lynch. Can't be 2 mafia on the same team. Reduce the suspect list IMO.

[SpyreX]

Vote: No Lynch

I agree, regardless of what happens today it should end in NL.

I'm trying to figure out what happened. Can you post your list of Jails (including last night) again so I can look at it without hunting around.

[bionicchop2]

I'm trying to figure out what happened. Can you post your list of Jails (including last night) again so I can look at it without hunting around.

It is largely irrelevant since there was a mafia RB, but here goes:

N1 - OGML
N2 - CF Riot (only night I probably wasn't blocked)
N3 - Nobody
N4 - Spyrex

Now, since CF riot was a RB, he probably did not turn in mafia's kill, meaning Spyrex is most likely not mafia.

[Vi]

No Lynch is at L-1. Full story at 11.

[SpyreX]

Thats exactly why I wanted to know - now, after the NL its a tossup (assuming you're not scum in which case well... gg)

Either way we're, in essence, coming to lylo with a "mostly" confirmed.

Only problem is ONE of us are dying and Moriarity and Rishi (who have both been kinda blase) are left.

[SpyreX]

Actually...

Unvote

Wait a sec. IF we hang one of them today and it is the wrong one you JK the other and they get lynched tomorrow.

I know - this only works if you and I aren't scum. But, like I've said, if you're scum then its yours and I'm not scum (and that is backed up by your result).

What do you think?

I'm gonna WIFOM myself and say, today, I'd vote for Moriarty because I think the fact I've been pushing Rishi and Rishi and I still being alive is because he was expecting an easy lylo.

[Vi]

Vote Count:

No Lynch (L-2) ~

SpyreX

Minimum (L-3)

Not Voting:

bionicchop2, Moriarty147, Rishi,

SpyreX

, SpyreX
[size=0]bionicchop2 - 0 | Moriarty147 - 1 | Rishi - 1 | SpyreX - 0[/size]

First Deadline Review: Saturday, May 2 2009
Current Deadline: Wednesday, May 6 2009

-----

What is this "BaM" in your sig, SpyreX?
(I mean, besides what it says behind the link.)

[bionicchop2]

Wait a sec. IF we hang one of them today and it is the wrong one you JK the other and they get lynched tomorrow.

Brilliant.

One hiccup is I realize CF could have blocked me last night and you may not have been jailed. I think I am willing to take that risk.

Either way, I am not voting anything until everybody has posted.

[SpyreX]

Fair enough. Although, really, its a 2-person gamble: we're both gambling that the other is town.

But, if the above is true thats game, set, match. A gamble I'm willing to take.

[Rishi]

I tend to believe both of you as town, which means Moriarty is likely the last scum (can't be a three-man scumteam or the game would be over). I think we should talk about this - I am like 90% convinced at this point that SpryeX and BC are town, but want to be at that 100% level before we lynch Moriarty.

[Moriarty147]

I'm about 90% convinced that SpyreX is Town, and leaning towards a Rishi scum. Mainly would like the uncertainty about BC out of the way.

As for SpyreX, equally well we could No Lynch today, BC tells us ahead of time who he is going to jail, if there is No NK we lynch that person, otherwise they're clear and we lynch the other. Same idea, except this way it doesn't Game Over for Town if one of you or BC is, in fact, lying.

[Rishi]

Hmm. I wonder if there are holes in Moriarty’s plan. What if the Mafia decides to send a No Kill?

For example, say if SpyreX is the remaining scum. BC jails me, SpyreX sends a No Kill. We wake up with four, and I get lynched. Game goes to night. BC, thinking that it must be Moriarty, then jails Moriarty, allowing SpyreX to kill BC for the win.

[SpyreX]

My plan: if I or BC are scum, scum wins. If either of you are scum, town wins.

Chances of BC being scum: minimal (I will actively applaud you if you are).

Looking at what both of you suggested further makes me believe its Mor - that reaks of flailing knowing that, as scum, you are boned.

Vote: Moriarty

[Moriarty147]

Looking at what both of you suggested further makes me believe its Mor - that reaks of flailing knowing that, as scum, you are boned.

Reasoning?

I'm fine with being the lynch today if there are no other options, as I think your plan is still more or less fine. However, one thing that's surprising me is that if we are going to lynch someone today, howcome we aren't trying to at least do an analysis of CF Riot before voting them off?

[bionicchop2]

As for SpyreX, equally well we could No Lynch today, BC tells us ahead of time who he is going to jail, if there is No NK we lynch that person, otherwise they're clear and we lynch the other. Same idea, except this way it doesn't Game Over for Town if one of you or BC is, in fact, lying.

Yeah, huge holes in this plan. You can't base a lynch off of who is jailed when there is no kill at night. Mafia can just turn in no kill if an innocent is jailed.

[Moriarty147]

Yeah, I forgot about that possibility. Which is why I'm fine with being today's lynch if and only if we do some CF Riot analysis first.

Rereading right now...

[SpyreX]

Ok, lets break this down before we lynch you and win:

My Plan (Killing Moriarty, blocking/lynching Rishi if the game continues):

Town Loses:

If Bio is scum.
If I am scum
If the remaining mafia member can roleblock AND kill AND the roleblock comes before the jailing.

Town Wins:

All other scenarios

Your Plan (No Lynch today, BC says the jail target, NK lynch that person, otherwise clear)

Scenarios:
1.) There is a NK - next day starts with 4.
--- BC's jail target was scum.
--- Scum sent in a NL
Options: Lynch jail target. If game continues, BC then jails. If BC jails incorrectly, game over.
Probable Results: IF BC doesn't jail me, we are exactly where we are with this plan. It just takes longer.
2.) There is a Kill - next day starts with 3.
--- IF BC dies:
------ BC's jail target definitely wasn't scum.
------ It then plays out with the same 50/50 shot as my plan.
--- IF BC doesn't die:
------ BC is scum.
------ BC jailed town, scum killed the other.
------ As I'm not voting for BC, again this plays out like my above plan.
Probable Results: Chances are this wouldn't happen. If BC is killed then it is a town win (BC's results on me yesterday would clear me 100%+ the person jailed couldn't be scum, thus win). If I am killed then BC + jail target lynch the final. So, chances of scum doing this are minimal. BC being scum, again, is a scum win.

So, unless I'm missing something:

Your plan is a more complicated version of what I am that STILL will end in a scum win if BC is scum.

So, really it boils down to this no matter how you cut it:

If BC is town, it is a win today.
If BC is scum, it is going to be a loss (because I'm not voting for him).

My version just gives room for a mislynch today/speeds up the entire process. Only real difference.

[Moriarty147]

I'm not sure what the use of that post is given I already said my plan had a flaw in it and I'm fine with being the lynch so long as we do a little scumhunting first.