@Tajo-
-Also, it feels like you ignore or miss things that some players post/say.
FYI- My guess is that only some MK members are provided with the BA items and due to game starting in Day 1, they were probably unable to share that information with each other.
Can someone who was around for the start of this game confirm if that is possible/true/whatever?
Things I liked about Ort:
-Ort started off raising the point that
a mass claim is specifically warned against in the rules.
-I think Ort raised valid points against mass claiming item knowledge; but when it was clear that the town was doing it despite any limitations, he did participate. He remained pretty consistent with his stated beliefs throughout the process.
-Ort is one of the few players who came up with valid reasons for voting SK. Later votes seemed very "me too"-ish. Ort's vote is also early enough that I don't think an SK lynch was a sure thing, so I find it much less likely to be bussing.
-Ort's analysis of items seems to make the most sense (or at least seems to be consistent), and in particular I thought the suggestion that he sends a letter to prove himself was ridiculous.
-Also, to clarify, I don't think that the item claiming itself was the best course of action for the town, but I think that Tajo was earnest in proposing it as a pro-town tool.
@Mora-
2 and 3 aren't mutually exclusive.
I don't know where you are getting your probabilities from, but I agree that qwints being killed by a non-MK group is likely.
I think it is likely there are more than 2 factions (I think there are probably 4 factions). If any other, non BA factions are also uninformed (plausible from flavor since everyone is in the dark) I think there must be some kind of numerical or item/ability advantage to balance things.
One more possibility that I see from flavor, there are many Mario enemies who are immune to Mario's conventional methods of killing them. It's possible that Yoshi was sent to do the MK nightkill but ended up running into an enemy who is immune to Yoshi's nightkill method and possibly kills the person who tries to kill him.