MKM II GAME OVER

[Kast]

Mod edit
Visible Votecount

-populartajo (3): zwetschenwasser, ortolan, Empking
-sirdanilot (1): Gorrad
-ortolan (1): populartajo

Not voting (11): killa seven, Kast, ZEEnon, Riceballtail, Looker, sirdanilot, Moratorium, semioldguy, WeyounsLastClone, caf19, AceMarksman

With 16 alive it takes 9 real votes to lynch.

I've been working on this post through the day as I have free time, so it doesn't address Mora's post 995 and forward.

@Sirdanilot-
My take of the game so far. It's really hard keeping track of all the players without having played through this. You really need to read through yourself though. Also, I have very few concrete ties between this and people's positions (mostly because there are few people who stood out for me).

Day 1:
-Discussion about mass claiming.

Tajo main driver of this.

-Conclusion that mass name/role claiming is probably bad
-Conclusion that Bowser's Army is actually the town despite potentially misleading role PM's.

SK showed no confusion about who was town and was suspected by some players for this

.
-Discussion about using knowledge of the BA items to confirm townies.

Tajo main driver of this.

-Response to plan was split ~60%/40% but after people started claiming some of those who refused claimed anyway so ~75% ended up claiming.
-9/17 players claimed knowledge of BA items, 4/17 claimed no knowledge and 4/17 didn't participate.

I replaced Cream who did not participate in claiming and does not have knowledge of items; I suspect that Cream and probably the 3 other non-compliant players refused to comply because they do not have this knowledge.

-Semioldguy and Tajo argued about Tajo's implementation of the knowledge checking.
-SK was one of the players who did not have knowledge of the items.
-SK claimed to be able to use items if they were given to him. This contradicted Ace's role which is not allowed to buy or use items.

Gorrad agreed with Ace's position. I also confirm that is consistent with my role.

-SK was lynched and flipped Toad (Mushroom Kingdom).

Night 1:
-Qwints died and flipped Yoshi (Mushroom Kingdom).
-Qwints is a player who had knowledge of the BA items.

Day 2:
-You probably don't need a summary on this.

@Tajo re:Looker-

Side note- could you guys link back to the posts that you reference?

Of your case against him, the first two points are practically the same-lurking-which seems to be his norm (anti-town but not necessarily scummy).
Third point is something to watch him for. I'm not sure why you draw Ort into it, but Looker replacing in and immediately voting scum with poor reason could very well be a bus and/or distancing.
Fourth point- I'm in an ongoing game with Looker, and based on his play there and what I read of his play here, I disagree with your assertion that he is not retarded.
Fifth point- It is fallacious to equate disagreement with a plan that was not clearly and obviously pro-town with having anti-town motivation.

I do think Looker needs to stop lurking and needs to participate or get replaced.

@Tajo re:Ort-
You have mentioned that your suspicion of Ort comes from Day 1. I don't recall any serious/memorable case(s) against Ort from Day 1. Please summarize (with links).

@Ort re:Tajo-
Tajo's belief in SK's claim seems to include a soft implication that he either is a goomba or strongly believes that goombas are present in the game. I also don't think the complexity of SK's claim really changed much between his initial claim and his final claim.

I do want to know why Tajo did not comment on the discrepancy between SK's claim about his item usability and Ace and Gorrad's claims about item usability. I want to hear what Tajo thinks of the discrepancy.

I don't think it is accurate/fair to say Tajo was not doing any scumhunting. I think a good analogy is to consider a game of street fighter. Tajo would be a player who is completely focused on doing super combos to the exclusion of all else. Ort would be a player who just plays, and if an opportunity comes up where a super combo would be good, he takes it, but he doesn't go out of his way to do so. Both ways could potentially win. In this case, Tajo was trying to use a super combo that is not very effective without first verifying whether it would be effective or not.

@Gorrad-
I think a lot of what you have posted so far makes very little sense and uses a lot of craplogic and jumping to unfounded conclusions. Reading your arguments, I can easily see myself falling into a big argument with you and being extremely frustrated. I don't know if this is just your playstyle. Do you have any links to previous (preferably short) games that show a similar penchant for jumping to conclusions with odd reasoning?

[Moratorium]

Mora and all, what do you think of this?

See, yesterday, while you were voting me for opposing a mass-claim plan as being useless which has since turned out to be...useless, I was busy catching scum.

You were opposing to a plan that was not useless yesterday. It has been proven useless today. How did you know it was useless yesterday? Unless you are scum of course and you knew it was useless since D1.

I'm not sure why you want the rest of us to answer this for ortolan when he's yet to address it himself. I have an opinion on this, but I'd much rather hear ortolan's answer first.

[Moratorium]

-9/17 players claimed knowledge of BA items, 4/17 claimed no knowledge and 4/17 didn't participate. I replaced Cream who did not participate in claiming and does not have knowledge of items;

I suspect that Cream and probably the 3 other non-compliant players refused to comply because they do not have this knowledge.

The relatively small number of people objecting to the item claiming plan makes me wonder if it

consists entirely of scum.

I think this is significant.

[Kast]

[quote=Tajo]Also the reason why ortolan wagon lost steam was because he claimed he had item descriptions in his PM, using the plan he is bashing now to save his scummy ass. But now we know this doesnt indicate he is town.[/quote]
If you disagree with Mora's presentation of the case against Ort, please summarize it and correct it.

-Is the reason that Ort was suspicious in the first place because he opposed the plan?

If that is the case, then regardless of whether he is town or scum, knowing the BA items shows that he wasn't opposed to the plan due to fear of discovery.

For now, I have to assume that Mora's reason is a very accurate summary of the case against Ort, since otherwise having knowledge of the items would probably have been ineffective at clearing Ort (I could see some contrived arguments that could be negated by Ort having knowledge of BA items, but nothing very plausible, implied, or even hinted at).

[Kast]

@Mora, 1002-
You are pretty vague.

Could you clarify your statement/thoughts?

Also to add a bit to my statement, the term "refusing to" was used by Tajo, but is actually a bit inaccurate. Cream and Killer did not refuse to participate, they simply lurked the entire Day 1.

Looker did not directly refuse; he said he would read the thread and decide after reading whether he should share that information. Then he lurked a lot, then later came back and never addressed that point again.

I'm not sure if this is one of Tajo's points, but if not, I think it should definitely be one.

RiceBallTail did refuse to participate in the claiming citing reasons that plans should be explained to the town so that town know why they should follow them before they agree to follow them and that townies might have different item costs (false negative).

[Moratorium]

@Mora, 1002-
You are pretty vague.

Could you clarify your statement/thoughts?

A flipped scum attempted to paint four particular players as scum very early on in the game, just as a passing comment. As there's little reason to bus so many scumbuddies that early, I would tend to believe those four players are more townie on average, based on that statement.

[Moratorium]

I'll revise that statement, and say more non-scum on average.

[Kast]

@Mora-
It seems like your statement would make more sense changing it to more non-MK than average.

Given that it looks like we have 9 players with BA item info and 8 players without, I'd guess there was probably a pretty even distribution of MK players with BA item info, and among any DK or WW players, probably pretty balanced there as well.

I don't think it's really safe to conclude that the "refuse to claim" group has a disproportionate number of non-MK, just from that throwaway comment (of course, I don't mind if people want to assume I am more likely than average to be a townie). I would guess there is probably ~1 MK among the "refuse to claim" group (and ~1 MK among any random group of 4 players), and I could easily see one scum player naming a group of 4 players as scum (even if the group contained one of his scumbuddies).

@Item Knowledge-
Some thoughts I'd like to clarify about the items claiming-

-I agree that the simplest explanation for SK not having item descriptions and Qwints having them is that some MK players got those descriptions and some did not. I am assuming that this means there was no Night 0, and will strongly suspect any players who in future claim to have been given time to act on Night 0.

I also dislike how Tajo ignored me and others who posted this as a possible explanation, then later posted it as if it were his own original thought. Not indicative of alignment, just not a very pleasant attitude.

-I agree that Yoshi/Qwints probably shared his information, so now we can expect all scum to have item descriptions.

I find it extremely unlikely that scum will slip up and reveal knowledge of item descriptions when previously they claimed no knowledge, but if we see that, then yes I think it is worth pursuing. It is something that we should keep an eye out for.

-MKers (and potentially DK or WW players) who opposed item claiming on Day 1 may have done so not realizing that their team members had that information (although MKers probably realized it after seeing Qwints correctly answer questions).

-MKers (and potentially DK or WW players) who had item descriptions may have assumed that all team members also had that information.

[zwetschenwasser]

Mod: Content deleted; don't talk about on-going games

[Kast]

@Zwet-
To clarify, this seems to be your case against Tajo:
-Tajo's plan required that only BA players have item descriptions in order to accurately confirm townies.
-At least one MK player had BA item descriptions.
-Tajo's plan did not accurately confirm townies.
-Tajo is scum for pushing a plan that did not accurately confirm townies and acting as though it did.

If that is accurate, your argument fails on point 4.

While Tajo did mostly ignore the potential flaws raised against his plan, a majority of players did agree that his plan was worth pursuing despite it's flaws. Unless you can make a good case to show that this majority was entirely composed of scum, that means the plan had sufficient merit that at least one townie decided to follow it.

Tajo could be scum who knew that his plan would lead the town astray. But he could also very plausibly be a townie who genuinely believed that his plan was beneficial to the town (despite it's drawbacks).

The arguments that you refer to against Tajo that are based on private information may be strong, valid cases. The town as a whole cannot determine that without learning the private information that you refer to but do not share. Until you present that information, those unspecified arguments remain weak for everyone other than you.

[Gorrad]

@Gorrad-
I think a lot of what you have posted so far makes very little sense and uses a lot of craplogic and jumping to unfounded conclusions. Reading your arguments, I can easily see myself falling into a big argument with you and being extremely frustrated. I don't know if this is just your playstyle. Do you have any links to previous (preferably short) games that show a similar penchant for jumping to conclusions with odd reasoning?

Can you quote an example or two of this in this game so I can know what to look for? All of my conclusions have made sense to me so far, so I can't be sure to what you are referring.

[Kast]

@Gorrad-
It's kinda all your recent posts...but I'll try to pick one exemplary post for each of the major things that made me cringe while reading. I think it maybe a huge difference in playstyle; you tend to assume possibilities as truth until proven otherwise.
-Anecdotally relating two games in which nightkill commentary was part of the reason that scum were lynched does not prove that it is a valid tool for scumhunting. I'm sure I could find 2+ games where scum were lynched with the reason being that they were the first player to place a vote on another player. This would be a craplogic reason to believe that lynching the first person to place a vote on another player is valid scumhunting. Speculating about a NK and what it entails is not inherently scummy. It can be misused, but Mora did not post anything that does so or encourages others to do so. If you want to claim that speculating about NKs is scummy, you really need to give some reasons why it benefits scum and does not benefit town.
-Showing a potential situation in which the prices for the 4 BA items are the same as the prices for the 4 MK items shows a failure to understand Semioldguy's post. He pointed out that the only comment that he thought could be relevant to Qwint's guess was insufficient to provide Qwint with a method for correctly determining the relative values of a red and green shell. Your example is irrelevant to this. I could see you salvaging your argument with speculation that MK items might follow a similarly tight distribution as BA items (ie. all items are within +/-2 coins from each other

(I think this is what people claimed about the BA items)

, AND add in the point that red shells are generally considered superior to green shells (ie. Mario Kart games).
-You demonstrate a seriously flawed understanding of statistics. You are also inconsistent with your later claim that only the first person to comment on a nightkill is suspicious (or at least the first person is significantly more suspicious than others).
-You make a very odd comment implying that engineers will pursue irrelevant minutiae and this should excuse you for pointless craplogic.
-You assume that sirdanilot knows why/how he entered the game and that his failure to immediately share that information is scummy. This is a completely unjustified assumption.

[Gorrad]

1. I put faith in it, and HAVE given reasons why it benefits scum and not town. As I said, scum use it as a tool to out potential doctors/RBers.

2. I have no idea what any of the items on either side do, but I imagine if I had one set it wouldn't be all that difficult to pair them with the other. If y'all disagree, I suppose y'all just have a better vantage point than I.

3. I'm failing statistics.

4. Engineers WILL pursue irrelevant minutiae. I wasn't using that as any kind of bad-logic excuse, I was using it to explain why I was pursuing a needless course of conversation.

5. It is NOT unjustified, and if you'll let him respond I'll tell you why.

[Kast]

@Gorrad-
Does this mean you don't plan to link to any previous games?

-There is a possibility that scum could use it do out doctors or RBers. In our case, Mora's speculation did no such thing. It did help raise the point that at least some MK players had information about BA items. Your assumption that the possibility of a negative outcome makes something inherently scummy is fallacious.

-Being able to pair them up the BA items with MK items in the manner you imply would mean a player without the BA items can realistically infer relative value from only the names. I agree that Red Shell can be inferred to be better than Green Shell from flavor. This would have been a valid point to raise. However, you did not make this comparison. Further, just knowing the relative value between a red and green shell could not explain knowing the relative values of these with respect to the other BA items, so would not help with determining the value 2 EVEN IF all of the MK item prices correspond with BA item prices. This supposition is also required.

-Sorry to hear that. Stats are a pretty boring class.

-Not necessarily. Engineers tend to be pretty practical. They will pursue minutiae, but generally it is relevant to some degree. They also tend to be big fans of logic. I'll take my own word as a full engineer over your word as a "half".

-I am not stopping him from responding (nor is anyone else, which you have also baselessly implied). Regardless, it is an unjustified assumption. If you have private information that justifies your belief, it does not change that the assumption you presented to the town is unjustified.

[Riceballtail]

I could go with a Gorrad lynch right now.

I'm honestly far more interested in what Sirdan has to say though. I hope he can at least post soon.

[semioldguy]

@ Gorrad

Just because something is justified to you, doesn't mean it is justified to anyone else. I'm not just going to take your word on it because you say so. Now it could very well be that saying so before sirdanilot answers would affect his response or undermine what you are getting at by asking him. But as soon as he says something on the subject I expect to hear your full reasoning to this justification you're claiming.

[caf19]

mod: this is a quote of post 1008

Needless to say, I can't really believe you off the back of this sort of vague reference. Am I to take from this that tajo proposed a massclaim in another game and ended up being scum, or what? If you really can't say anything about this unconfirmable meta, I humbly request that you give us some instances of where tajo has been scummy in-thread.

I could go with a Gorrad lynch right now.

Did you just read the name of the last person who got suspected in-thread, and decide you wanted them lynched? Or do you actually have reasons for this?

As for my opinion, Kast's points against Gorrad are justified but I don't find that evidence such as an unwillingness to discuss NKs is in itself enough to make him scum. So, while they do point out the illogicality of his principles, the effect they have on his likelihood of being scum is minor.

Incidentally, I'm kinda wondering why Gorrad's activity has jumped so much. He's posted about as many posts in the 48ish hours of today as he did all of yesterday. Newfound vigour, perhaps?

[ortolan]

the thing with tajo is I'm willing up to a point to discount his OMGUSy behaviour towards me just as resentment to me opposing his mass-claim plan. If he is town then yesterday his behaviour towards

ME

(not necessarily other people) is possibly excusable.

But him being town and attacking me again today is just bizarre. Not only have my initially unpopular opinions on the mass-claim plan being vindicated (yet he has now changes his story to say that only scum would have known the mass-claim plan was useless, a classic example of trying to twist

whatever

I do into having scummy motivations. Note that I had I

not

had the item descriptions, and opposed the (useless) plan as I did, I would almost certainly have been lynched.

The other fact is the whole reason I voted

SK

was that

he

voted

me

for a crap reason to begin with (which further makes busing an implausible scenario). Objectively I cannot see how a town player could come to the conclusion that I am a "good" lynch target after everything that took place on day one. Furthermore he justifies his stance on me as little more than "gut".

And some select replies:

Flase again. You did when you tried to get me lynched in D1. Try again.

Actually someone told me you have a meta of mass-claim requests, so in fairness to you I had to change the mere fact alone of your mass-claim request this game to a null-tell.

False.
My case on Looker in 832 is not solely "lurking".

Case on Looker, posted in Lurking.
Promised a post but havent done so.
His first post of the game was a vote for Shadow Knight showing a bizarre connection with the Ort-SK dilemma, evne though he hadnt finished reading the thread then.
Playing the retard card, even though I know Looker is not retarded.
His predecesor, Shinnen, comploted against the plan and refused to colaborate.

You think Looker is town, ort?

- Your first point is that he didn't make a promised post i.e. lurking.
- In and of itself, voting for scum is definitely not a scum-tell.
-

Fourth point- I'm in an ongoing game with Looker, and based on his play there and what I read of his play here, I disagree with your assertion that he is not retarded.

LOL

- Opposing a now proven-useless plan is not a scumtell.

So, basically, I see no evidence Looker is scum.

In your case we have your mass-claiming plan, which is now proven to be a null-tell as we have reports you have advocated it before as scum, as well as the fact it has been proven to be ineffective.

We also have you redirecting votes from a now-flipped scum wagon (and we know what a reliable scum-tell that is don't we Kast) onto someone else, who as I said above, I don't see you as having valid reasons for suspecting.

Additionally, I do want to revisit why you apparently found SK's claim plausible. I'm not sure I've been entirely clear with my point here:

I think scum have fakeclaims in this game also. When did I say they didnt?

And I think the flavor clears SK. It feels a belieavable role (almost a generic role with protection) and not one coming from a fakeclaim, since those usually are a little more elaborate.

Here he says that fakeclaims are usually

more

elaborate i.e. he is convinced by the claim on the basis of its simplicity.

I am a bubble goomba.
I will survive the first kill an invader hits me with, but it will pop my bubble and make me a normal goomba.
Certain attacks* will kill me outright
I have 1 coin.
I am unable to buy items.
Night 4 I "land" and my bubble pops regardless.

Yet after SK posts this, something far more elaborate, tajo is still convinced of his towniness. Additionally this contains wierd information like "Night 4 I land". Why would that even be in a role pm? And re: 988, I disagree that "goomba in a bubble" is not an "elaborate role claim" in the later sense you referred to. I can't even remember any games where goombas started in bubbles...

When re-reading I also noticed this:

Looker is suspicious?

Yes, you too.

Are you going to elaborate on this, tajo?

-Anecdotally relating two games in which nightkill commentary was part of the reason that scum were lynched does not prove that it is a valid tool for scumhunting.

This was the main point I was trying to get across with my "STATISTICS FAIL" comment.

[ortolan]

@ Mora yes tajo and I have played together before, several times

and I don't think your summary of my case against him is complete.

[populartajo]

Ort, lest go thorugh this step by step, shall we?

His first post of the game was a vote for Shadow Knight showing a bizarre connection with the Ort-SK dilemma, evne though he hadnt finished reading the thread then.

What do you think of this opinion of Looker?

And

Why do you think my plan was useless? I agree it failed to confim townies but it didnt fail to catch scum, ya know?

[populartajo]

Of your case against him, the first two points are practically the same-lurking-which seems to be his norm (anti-town but not necessarily scummy).

Have you checked his participation in other games?

Third point is something to watch him for. I'm not sure why you draw Ort into it, but Looker replacing in and immediately voting scum with poor reason could very well be a bus and/or distancing

Ort is here because Looker decided that one of SK and Ort had to be scum. This is a false dilemma. And its scummy as hell as you realize, specially by the speed of the vote.

Fourth point- I'm in an ongoing game with Looker, and based on his play there and what I read of his play here, I disagree with your assertion that he is not retarded.

Read this and come back with your apreciations of Looker. viewtopic.php?t=11343&postdays=0&postor ... &&start=50

Fifth point- It is fallacious to equate disagreement with a plan that was not clearly and obviously pro-town with having anti-town motivation.

I disagree that my plan was not obviously protown as it was supported by a heavy majority and some people that I think are prob town. Look, we know that some scum didnt have item descriptions in their PMs, as SK flip proves. How its not a safe assumption to think that there has to be at least one more scum in the group of "people refusing to collaborate with the plan" and in the group of "people not having item descriptions"?

You have mentioned that your suspicion of Ort comes from Day 1. I don't recall any serious/memorable case(s) against Ort from Day 1. Please summarize (with links).

Im suspecting Ortolan all D1. You are free to check my posts only by user and see that. Post 288 is a good start.

I do want to know why Tajo did not comment on the discrepancy between SK's claim about his item usability and Ace and Gorrad's claims about item usability. I want to hear what Tajo thinks of the discrepancy.

I did.

ort has done enough to justify his survival now.
SK isn't entirely incriminated by Ace and Gorrad's convictions since the possibitilty of him telling the truth is still there. On the other hand, his defences do have something of a 'retrospective' feel to them. After being called out for slipping, he just goes 'oh, um, I was only assuming that', something he didn't mention before, and continues on...
So, I still think Looker is the best choice, but SK probably isn't a bad one either. Given Looker's out-of-the-blue unvote of SK, there's a chance they could both be scum.

I tend to agree with the post.
Look, I really dont know what to make of SK. My gut tells me he is telling the truth with his claim. When I said scum had elaborate claims I meant that usually scum dont claim a simple role like goomba in a bubble. A reason I thought why this claim could be legit is cuz I tought that the vanilla version of this game were Goombas. For reference, in the other game, scum had fakeclaims like Dr. Mario and at the beginning they didnt know that the Toads were the vanillas of the game. However, if Goombas arent the vanillas of the game, then who are the vanillas of this game?
But yeah, all the people asking for SK lynch cant be all scum and I agree there is something fishy with his claim. So there is not much I can do now.
The only thing I want is that I definitely want Looker to comment on this before SK is lynched.

[Moratorium]

:/

Alright, you two keep duking it out then. I'll keep an eye out for either of you to spring some awesome verbal trap on the other, but right now I'm not feeling it.

I'm still interested to hear from Gorrad the self-proclaimed half-engineer.

I have some theories that can wait until Sirdanilot posts.

k so reading the game may take a while though, anyone has a summary about what happened this would help my reread a bit otherwise count on about a week or so.

"You first."

"No, please, you first."

"Why sir, I insist."

"How kind, but I couldn't bear it. Please."

There's probably a legitimate line of discussion to come of this, but I'm not sure I understand the need for the delay.

[populartajo]

Mora, who is scum?

[populartajo]

In your case we have your mass-claiming plan, which is now proven to be a null-tell as we have reports you have advocated it before as scum, as well as the fact it has been proven to be ineffective.

Ive never advocated massclaim plans as scum. Where did you get these reports?

[AceMarksman]

don't have long to post today, I'm just going to pop in and say kast's suggestion that there was no night 0 and therefore no conversation between scum is rubbing me the wrong way. There is normally pre-game chatter between scum, regardless of whether or not there is a Night 0.