Mini 164: Rock Paper Scissors Mafia - Game Over

[Fuldu]

Vote Count:
Locus Cosecant - 2 (Coron, Narninian)
vikingfan - 2 (Locus Cosecant, Mr. Flay)

Not Voting: DarkLight140, Save The Dragons, StrykkerVerde, vikingfan

With 8 alive, 5 to lynch

I will confirm that, with only two team members alive, a single player would constitute the 50% necessary to activate a kill action.

[DarkLight140]

Well, for one thing, I'm kind of hoping a member of my team will propose an alliance with the papers, lynch a member of the opposite team with their help, and then go on to nightkill the remaining opposition. I'm seeing that as the best move, since the papers have more than a little nightkill power, and my team can protect 3/5 of the non-enemies (the odds of an accidental kill are minor, though non-neligible), giving good odds of weathering retaliatory strikes as the papers eliminate the foes. Then, at least theoretically, neither side will be able to acheive the needed lynching majority, and the papers can fight it out with my team, but at least come in second- much better than they're doing now. See, I call it mutually beneficial... for my team and the papers.

However, I'm reluctant to do so myself, as I'm pretty sure whoever does is asking to be killed. However... papers, are you feeling like allying?

[vikingfan]

Vote Locus Cosecant

I might move it later, but for now. I'm tired of Locus' insistence that Paper is the way to go-news flash, Rock has EXACTLY as many players as you do. You might want to see about cutting them down first.

I can see making a deal-but I'm leaving my options open. I HIGHLY recommend no quick lynches. If you do, the other paper will go after the team of the last person to vote. So will the other team that didn't lynch, and presto, your team is toast.

[Mr. Flay]

We seem to have finally brought some strategy into this game at last.

StrykkerVerde, would you be willing to give your continent? I think I asked you this before...

[Coron]

gone through Saturday late night, might not be on 'til sunday.

[Mr. Flay]

I'm beginning to believe we're in a Mexican Standoff. Any mafia can, if it so chooses, eliminate/make irrelevant one other team tonight, thereby throwing the game to another.

However no one has a safe play, that I can see, that keeps themselves in the strongest position for tomorrow. Of course, imperfect play can create havoc on those sorts of projections... as we saw last night.

[DarkLight140]

I would almost say that that's been an accurate description ofthe game all along. However, no one is irrelevant as long as they're alive, since they retain significant ability to harm theother mafias.

[Narninian]

What screwed us over... is several people taking 'anti-paper' stances in the beginning of the game..

[Mr. Flay]

What screwed us over... is several people taking 'anti-paper' stances in the beginning of the game..

Well, what screwed (Paper) over was the fact that Paper was the first mafia to be lynched. With no night-kill that first night, it was the only thing shifting the balance of power.

As for the first paragraph, it's actually harder to (leave no one alive) than you think. And there are mechanisms in place to address that eventuality.

Is Paper willing to strike a Faustian bargain for an assured second place (maybe first, although I'm unclear what mechanisms Fuldu has in place for a 2 vs. 2 endgame)? I have a thought for minimizing damage to my mafia and Paper tonight... if you're willing to trust me and mine after bringing you to this point.

[Mr. Flay]

What screwed us over... is several people taking 'anti-paper' stances in the beginning of the game..

Well, what screwed (Paper) over was the fact that Paper was the first mafia to be lynched. With no night-kill that first night, it was the only thing shifting the balance of power.

As for the first paragraph, it's actually harder to (leave no one alive) than you think. And there are mechanisms in place to address that eventuality.

Is Paper willing to strike a Faustian bargain for an assured second place (maybe first, although I'm unclear what mechanisms Fuldu has in place for a 2 vs. 2 endgame)? I have a thought for minimizing damage to my mafia and Paper tonight... if you're willing to trust me and mine after bringing you to this point.

[Narninian]

I'm willing to hear a bargain..

[DarkLight140]

Heh, I should've proposed a bargain while pointing out that it was probably everyone's best move to try for one, instead of just saying that one should be made and leaving it at that... foolish of me, when the other player that's been trying to be strategic all game is on an unknown team. *shakes head*

I'd like to strike a deal with Papers, as well. As I seem to lack brilliant analytical skill, though, all I can up with for general terms are "you help me lynch someone on our mutually opposing team (to be announced if you agree), then nightkill the other two, and we'll make sure at least one of you is protected during the night". After that, well, we'd probably be reduced to even terms anyway as the third team takes vengeance, so you'd have at least a shot at first.

[Narninian]

Sounds good to me - relies a lot on trust during nighttime - which is something that is hard to accept.

[DarkLight140]

True, but then, it depends as much on us trusting you during the night as you trusting us. Any deal is going to be essentially based upon trust, anyway.

[vikingfan]

Before I strike a deal, I want to know what teams Darklight and Mr. Flay are representing. It sounds like they're on opposite teams, but I'm not sure. Obviously, it makes sense to know as well so that we can target the opposite team.

And I am willing to hear a bargain.

[Mr. Flay]

I'll have to reply with a question: Do either of the Papers know (definitively, not deduction) what team I'm on? If so, do either of you know the third person on my team? Just a yes/no will do, obviously you don't have to prove it right now.

One Rock and one Scissors is revealed right now. Two are hidden for each team; one of those folks is me. If I can know for certain that all three of my team will be identified w/o doubt, then I can guarantee at least second place for Paper (provided my teammates play along, of course - there's that trust thing), and I'll reveal/explain my course of action.

[DarkLight140]

Both of our alignments are publicly unknown at this point. Therefore, I'm covering my bases. As it happens, though, since the teams are effectively mirrors of one another, any deal either of us proposes can be used by the other for equal effetiveness, so it's probably useless anyway.

My offered deal is on the table, and I'm fairly sure that if my entire team reveals their alignments when it's agreed, we'll be able to get paper either first or second. As it would be to my team's clear advantage to agree, I trust that no matter which side I'm on, they'd be glad to have the deal and will go along. I'd rather not reveal until then. However, I will say that I know the alignment of one 'hidden' player on the other team.

Any Paper results being revealed (even their existence, as Mr. Flay said) could very well help. One member of a team claiming to be from the other could mess everything up, and it would certainly be an attractive option for a member whose team will otherwise fall.

[Narninian]

Ill be honest I dont know much.. I know all the North Americans, All the papers (and their countries), 2/3 of the South Americans, and only 1 Europe.

[Mr. Flay]

I should clarify my question for the Papers, since vikingfan obviously doesn't know what team I'm on, and if he knows the third person on my side, it does no good until we start communicating it...

I'm 80%+ sure I know what side DarkLight is on. However any confirmation on DL, SV, or STD from the Papers (a neutral party at this point, if you will) would clear a lot of questions up. Just the fact that you know one or more of those is knowledge gained, even without revealing their side yet.

Unvote: vikingfan

while we talk about parley.

[Mr. Flay]

Ack, posted while you were posting Narn. Are any of those known results on me?

[vikingfan]

Of my 4 nights, one was a failed kill(I won't reveal where for now), one was on DMI who has since died, and the other two I've reported-Locus and Coron.

I can give the continents for both if people would like, but I honestly don't know which sides Mr. Flay and Darklight are on, nor any of the 3 Mr. Flay mentions. I also don't know for certain the 3rd member of each tribe. Now, obviously, I have a good guess, but guessing is not the same as knowing.

[Narninian]

Sorry flay- dont Know - and no results on you.

[Narninian]

hmm I didnt include Locus into the equation -but it doesnt help me I still have 2 unidentified on each team... If I knew just one I could say for sure all the teams.

[Narninian]

scratch that - I need 2

[vikingfan]

If I gave you the continents of both Coron and Locus, would that help, Narn?