Open 139 (Lovers Mafia) - Over! before 781

[ZazieR]

-If someone would hammer you now, would you think that player is scum or would you think he/she is town? Why?

Scum, for sure. Since when is hammering someone on Page 3 not obvscum?

In response to your last post. If you were hammered, you would have thought that it was scum. You were never once thinking that town would hammer you as you said in the above quote. So this is NOT the case at all:

See, perfectly reasonable town-sided explanation.

You don't have a valid explanation for town-side, as you're scum.

And I haven't seen this:

I've provided reasons either why it doesn't make sense for me to do that as scum, or why I would possibly do that as town.

As for this:

Yes, I said that scum would hammer me. Of course town wouldn't. But what's your case; I provided defenses for either, but you're ignoring them.

I haven't ignored them as one of them isn't the case, and the other isn't valid. Reasons have already been stated. May I now continue posting?

[Crazy]

Chief got prodded, while OP didn't. So how was OP worse? And OP has stated his suspicions. Can you say that for Kirroha?

OP stated his suspicions without backing up them up with anything. To me, that's worse than just lurking... especially seeing how Chief got replaced.

Town. And your defense is BS as you never thought of a stupid townie hammering. Besides, I don't see why you'd post that if you're a townie as you said that the hammerer would be scum. Why 'warn' the scum if you're a townie?

Well, the thing is, your accusation wasn't any good in the first place. It's common sense that townies aren't supposed to quick-hammer people. What's wrong with making a note that I was at L-1, so that nobody will hammer me accidentally, since I was sure that

nobody

would do it intentionally! (Town won't, unless you're Nat, and scum won't because then they'd be lynched Day 2.) I didn't think I would be quick-hammered, unless it was by a stupid townie that didn't watch the vote count. My post "warning" the scum was sarcastic; I never expected them to hammer.

It's not about winning duels. It's about lynching scum. I see that statement as 'give up your attacks against me, or you'll feel sorry'

I only duel with people whom I think are scum.

You've said that you think that the hammerer would've been scum. I'm taking over these exact words when I mention my point against you. Of course, it makes no sense for scum to say that.
However, if townies think that other players will look at them as scum if they hammer, they won't hammer as they are 'scared' that the lynched player is town. So it makes perfect sense for scum-Crazy to say, but not for town-Crazy.

Not "hammer." "Quick-hammer." You keep ignoring the difference here. Nobody is going to quick-hammer me intentionally. I made my post to make a note that I was at L-1, and just to start

some

discussion, so nobody would accidentally hammer me.

Obviously hammering someone after pages of discussion isn't what I was referring to in that post. I meant quick-hammering, and you know it.

[Crazy]

In response to your last post. If you were hammered, you would have thought that it was scum. You were never once thinking that town would hammer you as you said in the above quote. So this is NOT the case at all:

You're right if you substitute "hammer" with "quickhammer." Hammering someone after pages of discussion is fine! Quickhammering someone is never fine, regardless of alignment. You're right; I wasn't thinking about town quickhammering me... but to be honest, I wasn't thinking about scum quickhammering me, either. The only thing I was even remotely concerned about was someone not seeing I was at L-1 and accidentally quickhammering me.

See, I don't always say what I mean. My post was sarcastic; I didn't expect anyone to hammer me. The post was 50% randomness/50% making a note that I was at L-1.

The reasoning that I would possibly say that as town is that I wasn't worried about either scum or town quickhammering; I said it in the spirit of the random stage, and to make a small note that I was at L-1 to stop a stupid townie from inadvertantly quickhammering me.

After saying this, your "Lynch all Liars" post has merit; however, your original case still doesn't.

[ZazieR]

Zazie, who do you think I am scum with?

Valid are Kevin, Kirroha and Plum. I believe it's one of them.
Reasons when you finally give me time to post my pair list.

If I'm lynched as town, who do you think the scumteam is?

I'll come back to this when I've posted my pair list.

[Crazy]

After saying this, your "Lynch all Liars" post has merit

Further on this, my original defense for "warning" townies not to quickhammer me was an oversight on my part. See, I wasn't worried about townies consciously quickhammer me, yet, your case implied that. I defended against the possible scenario that I

was

doing that instead of saying how I wasn't doing that.

But the thing is, the original defense still works. You're saying, as scum, I was trying to warn townies not to hammer me. The thing is, I wasn't even warning townies not to hammer me, but I provided an adequate defense even if that was the case. If as scum, I was talking about townies hammering, then why couldn't I be talking about that as town? It's true, I wasn't, but I actually could have bluffed it and said I

was

talking about that. Townies don't always say what they mean, after all. If, as scum, I said that to warn town not to hammer me... how do you know I couldn't have done the same thing as town to warn town not to hammer me? It's true; I wasn't, but it works.

[Crazy]

Ugh, I really screwed up in this game by giving a wrong defense. If I'm lynched, fine, if I'm not, well, then you've eliminated "Crazy/Plum" as a possible pairing, which is about the only likely scumteam involving me, since Zazie, Kmd, Kirroha, and OP have all pushed hard against me.

[Tenchi]

---

VOTE COUNT

(2) Crazy - ZazieR, orangepenguin

(2) ZazieR - Plum, Crazy
(1) Chief - kirroha
(1) kirroha - Kmd4390

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

---

[Kmd4390]

Well, I'm dead pretty soon. Ah well. So stupid.

AtE isn't helping your case.

It was the random stage. Zazie put me at L-1. I had to say

something!

No. That wasn't JUST "something". That was an "If you vote me now, you are scum" which will obviously scare townies away from hammering.

You expect me to ignore an argument against me?

Not ignore it. Just say that it wasn't the case. You don't have to go into "IF I did this, it was because X". Just say you didn't do it. [/OJ'sbook]

Crap cases don't deserve defenses? That's ridiculous!

Yes, they do.

False cases only get a "That's not true. What I was actually saying was..."

Also, to prove that I'm not kirroha's partner...

Unvote
Vote Kirroha

See, now I can't feasibly be any partner by your logic! Doi.

Unvote
Vote ZazieR

That proved nothing. First, you were doing it to prove a point. Second, you unvoted right away. If you want to prove you aren't Kirroha's partner, you have to be willing to lynch. Same goes for Plum, although I only see her as possible scum if you are. Not likely, but possible.

Neither argument is good. As town, I don't want townies to be quicklynching me. But Zazie's argument was the other one, btw.

Actually, as town, you wouldn't even be afraid of L-1 that early. As scum, you have to scare any people running around with hammers away.

And how the hell was Zazie saying the other argument? I don't see that.

I'm going to be lynched. No way Kirroha is going to change her mind. Inactivity by other players is what caused my lynch, seriously.

Way to give up, scum.

Unvote, Vote Crazy

Clearly the scummiest individual player here.

The Sens-approach is actually good. You know your allignment. If you're townie and you put someone at L-1, the chance that both the scum are on the wagon is very little. Which means that if the one who's being wagoned is also a townie, the scum almost has to hammer. Otherwise, he/they has/have to try to get another wagon. If they fail, he/they need to hammer for a lynch. A townie would do it for the right reasons, while the scum have to come up with a fake one. Based upon the reason for the hammer, you can see if the hammerer is a townie or scum.
In the mean time, you can check the interactions.
-Who looks like he/she wants to hammer, but doesn't. What are the reasons, why he/she doesn't hammer?
-Who's trying to start another wagon? Why?
And more like these. So to me, I think that this is the right approach for day 1.

So what did you learn when you applied the Sens approach here?

Or you could see Paris Mafia with Kmd.

That was fun.

[orangepenguin]

(2) Crazy - ZazieR, orangepenguin, KMD
(2) ZazieR - Plum, Crazy
(1) Chief - kirroha

So does that mean Crazy's lover is bussing, or is Plum/kirroha?

[Kmd4390]

(2) Crazy - ZazieR, orangepenguin, KMD
(2) ZazieR - Plum, Crazy
(1) Chief - kirroha

So does that mean Crazy's lover is bussing, or is Plum/kirroha?

I doubt scum would bus as hard as Crazy has been pushed. Probably one of those two. I'd say Kirroha.

[Plum]

Ah, everyone has showed up, leaving a bunch of stuff to discuss. I'm on it. Cool, Kmd replaced in; nice to see a familiar face, but I'm afraid I'll have a bunch of questions for you.

Kmd, you say

I'm back and forth on Crazy. He's pushing a terrible case and his reaction to L-1 wasn't exactly townie, but he seems to be trying to think logically.

I need to know whether or not you think Crazy lied.

If

Crazy really lied, he should be scum: if you think he lied, at the point of that post you should have been voting him.

If not

, you'd need to explain what you think about Zazie and OP voting him on charges of LAL.

So. I think Zaz is town. The case on her is basically that she attacked Crazy which is bull.

But the case on her (well, the way I see it, anyway) is that she accused Crazy of lying when he didn't, making her look like scum pushing a Crazy wagon on a reason which is, in your words, bull. So, what do you think of Zazie's LAL accusation against Crazy?

Also, you seem, in that post, to have whittled down

all

possible pairings to kirroha/somebody. That looks a bit funky. At that time, who was your top suspect in terms of personal scumminess? Quantify, please?

Zazie, I believe that you legitimately think that the Sens-tactics are optimal, whether or not you're town in this game.

You forget that Crazy has said that he didn't think that a townie would hammer. The hammerer would have been obv scum to him. So why not sacrifice yourself to catch scum if he's a townie? This is my main point.
The other is that he 'warns' scum not to hammer him. By using this, he actually 'scares' players into not hammering him.
He said that scum would be the one to hammer, yet he 'warns' everybody not to hammer.
Tell me after Crazy's response how this makes sense.

He said he didn't really believe

either scum or town

would knowingly hammer him, and thus that warning would dissuade either town or scum from accidentially doing that. He mainly wanted to avoid sacrificing himself only for it to turn out that a really stupid townie did the hammering and got lynched Day 2. He did not think it optimal to get hammered by a townie at that point, which is a nulltell.

I didn't think the scum would hammer me. I assumed you just put me at L-1 to jumpstart discussion, thinking nobody would actually hammer. But I did want everyone to know I was at L-1, so I wouldn't be accidentally hammered by a random vote.

Basically, I didn't think it was a big deal, because I didn't expect the scum to hammer me anyway.

He's lying to me as he said that he thought that a townie wouldn't hammer. Yet, he uses it as counter argument.

He also said he thought a scumbag wouldn't hammer - he was only addressing the possibility of an accidental, random vote on him - a slip, in other words. Once he made it clear that he was at L-1 and the consequences thereof (yes, thereby dissuading townies from hammering him, which was preferable as he was

not

attempting any Sens-tactics) obviously any quickhammer would come from scum.

Town. And your defense is BS as you never thought of a stupid townie hammering. Besides, I don't see why you'd post that if you're a townie as you said that the hammerer would be scum. Why 'warn' the scum if you're a townie?

And I don't particularly think I was cautious... unless you mean about making a note that I was at L-1... but there I was afraid that someone would accidentally hammer me, not conciously hammer me.

He did think of the possibility of anyone stupidly hammering him.

You've said that you think that the hammerer would've been scum. I'm taking over these exact words when I mention my point against you. Of course, it makes no sense for scum to say that.
However, if townies think that other players will look at them as scum if they hammer, they won't hammer as they are 'scared' that the lynched player is town. So it makes perfect sense for scum-Crazy to say, but not for town-Crazy.

It makes sense for both. Only stupid town would hammer someone on page three with no case in a game where we only have two lynches. 'Dissuading' - making sure everyone knew that he was at L-1 and the consequences thereof - was null. Besides that, especially after his 'warning', yes, a hammerer would be obvscum.

Zazie, as far as I can see (though admittedly at this time of night all the arguments feel like they're collapsing into a tangled mess) you implied certain things (that Crazy was worried about concious townie quick-hammers, for one thing) which were not true and took advantage of Crazy defending against hypothetical concerns of yours springing from such to make it look like he contradicted himself when he in fact did not. You attacked him for defending two hypothetical concerns of yours and when you clarified which was your concern and he reiterated his defense for it, you attacked him for having contradicted his apparent intent in the original post.

He addressed that concern as well

. His approach was, perhaps, too comprehensive, but I read that as town. I read your manipulation of his defenses as extremely scummy.

(2) Crazy - ZazieR, orangepenguin, KMD
(2) ZazieR - Plum, Crazy
(1) Chief - kirroha

So does that mean Crazy's lover is bussing, or is Plum/kirroha?

Crazy's lover wouldn't be bussing now. If Crazy is scum, it's with kirroha. I still don't think he's scum, however.

[Crazy]

Kmd, I'm just being realistic; no use begging now. I now think I should have pushed harder on a Kirroha lynch rather than a Zazie. My final thoughts:

I think Plum is pro-town. OP really needs to clarify his case on her, because I don't see it at all.

Rereading her recent posts, and her past posts, Zazie is actually probably pro-town. Yeah, sudden switch here, but except for her original case on me, her logic is actually decent. I also don't think most scum would have the guts to put someone at L-1 in the random stage.

Kmd, I'm not sure about. His vote on Kirroha is rather questionable... but if he was scum w/ Zazie, he'd probably just have voted me. He could be scum with OP, though.

I have no idea how to read OP at all... sorry

If Kmd is town, then Kirroha is almost definitely scum. However, I don't believe they are scum together, or else Kmd is really playing this well.



Scumpairs, IMO, with 5/5 being most likely.

Kirroha/OP - 5/5
Kirroha/Kmd - 2/5
Kirroha/Plum - 2/5
Kirroha/Zazie - 3/5
OP/Kmd - 5/5
OP/Plum - 2/5
OP/Zazie - 4/5
Kmd/Plum - 2/5
Kmd/Zazie - 4/5
Plum/Zazie - 1/5

[orangepenguin]

I appear 5/5 in two of yours and 4/5 in one. Zazie has two 4/5 (one being w/ me) and one 3/5. Yet for some reason you're not voting me? I find that quite peculiar. If you think I am the most likely to be scum, you should be voting me. Yet you vote someone not as likely. Hm..I can't say I really understand. You even think KMD is just as likely as Zaz.

[Crazy]

Deadline is tomorrow. I'm dead, OP. The only way I'm not is if me and Plum quicklynch Kmd right now, but if he's town, then that would just lead to our lynch tomorrow.

Seriously, if you want to WIFOM stuff, you could conclude that I was

town

by the way I'm acting now! I've been looking more pro-town in my most recent posts than I have been all game, which is why I was shocked by Kmd's vote.

[kirroha]

Crazy sounds Townie-desperate to me. I don't really think he's scum. However, there's not much I can do to change anything.

I think Kmd is scum, because Chief told me she was scum. No, really.

[Tenchi]

---

FINAL VOTE COUNT

(3) Crazy - ZazieR, orangepenguin, Kmd4390

(2) ZazieR - Plum, Crazy
(1) Chief - kirroha

Deadline has passed... A decision has been made.

Crazy has been lynched.

Flavor text and result to be posted

soon

within 24 hours...

---

[Tenchi]

It was another day. You forget about the past knowing that you have done your job keeping the monastery clean of such disgraceful filth and impure members. Crazy and his lover should be gone by now.

You wake up again this morning, expecting there were three other people with you. Truly, the humiliation and pain from being ostracized for showing humanity amidst the game-centric monasticism would have cast out those poor misguided souls.

You count...







One, two...





















Three... Four... That's it. Complete. Now it's time to get ready for the meeting. Business as usual. You have to discuss what to do with the new Rockband set that just came in.





















"So how is everyone doing today? Sorry for being late. Had too much cabbage last night..."

Five.

Crazy,

Monk(Townie)

, Lynched Day One

With five alive, it takes three to lynch...

Deadline: June 3, 2009 12:01 pm PST

[Kmd4390]

Possible pairs:
Kirroha/OP
Kirroha/Kmd
Kirroha/Plum
Kirroha/Zazie
OP/Kmd
OP/Plum
OP/Zazie
Kmd/Plum
Kmd/Zazie
Plum/Zazie

No reason not to think Kirroha with anyone except me. (I wanted her lynched yesterday)

OP probably isn't scum with Zazie because of the L-1 vote. I eliminated OP/Plum originally, but I'm not sure why.

Zazie isn't scum with Plum because Plum attacked Zazie yesterday. And she put OP at L-1. So she can only be scum with Kirroha (or me for fairness).

Plum can only be eliminated as Kirroha's partner as I don't remember why I eliminated OP. (I guess I could be scum with Plum too from an outside point of view.)

My suspicion list:
Kirroha/OP
Kirroha/Plum
OP/Plum
Kirroha/Zazie

I think Zazie is town. Plum comes off protown. Kirroha appears on 3 suspicions. OP and Plum on 2 each. Zazie on 1.

My "preference for today's lynch" list (Best lynch on top. Worst on bottom):
Kirroha
OP
Plum
Zazie

And to answer Plum:

Ah, everyone has showed up, leaving a bunch of stuff to discuss. I'm on it. Cool, Kmd replaced in; nice to see a familiar face, but I'm afraid I'll have a bunch of questions for you.

Kmd, you say

I'm back and forth on Crazy. He's pushing a terrible case and his reaction to L-1 wasn't exactly townie, but he seems to be trying to think logically.

I need to know whether or not you think Crazy lied.

If

Crazy really lied, he should be scum: if you think he lied, at the point of that post you should have been voting him.

If not

, you'd need to explain what you think about Zazie and OP voting him on charges of LAL.

So. I think Zaz is town. The case on her is basically that she attacked Crazy which is bull.

But the case on her (well, the way I see it, anyway) is that she accused Crazy of lying when he didn't, making her look like scum pushing a Crazy wagon on a reason which is, in your words, bull. So, what do you think of Zazie's LAL accusation against Crazy?

Also, you seem, in that post, to have whittled down

all

possible pairings to kirroha/somebody. That looks a bit funky. At that time, who was your top suspect in terms of personal scumminess? Quantify, please?

I thought the "lie" on Crazy's part was just OP's way to apply pressure early in the game. It looked like Zazie saw this and followed suit. So no, I never thought he actually lied.

Connections seemed to be pretty much eliminated for most everyone non-Kirroha. Crazy seemed to be the scummiest individual player. The only reason I waited as long as I did to vote him was the lack of connections. But I guess any popular Day 1 lynch target will look that way.

[Tenchi]

Plum and orangepenguin have been prodded

ZazieR is on V/LA for a few days.

[Plum]

All right, let's see where we're left:

I think Plum is pro-town. OP really needs to clarify his case on her, because I don't see it at all.

Rereading her recent posts, and her past posts, Zazie is actually probably pro-town. Yeah, sudden switch here, but except for her original case on me, her logic is actually decent. I also don't think most scum would have the guts to put someone at L-1 in the random stage.

Kmd, I'm not sure about. His vote on Kirroha is rather questionable... but if he was scum w/ Zazie, he'd probably just have voted me. He could be scum with OP, though.

I have no idea how to read OP at all... sorry

If Kmd is town, then Kirroha is almost definitely scum. However, I don't believe they are scum together, or else Kmd is really playing this well.

Scumpairs, IMO, with 5/5 being most likely.

Kirroha/OP - 5/5
OP/Kmd - 5/5
OP/Zazie - 4/5
Kmd/Zazie - 4/5
Kirroha/Zazie - 3/5
OP/Plum - 2/5
Kirroha/Plum - 2/5
Kirroha/Kmd - 2/5
Kmd/Plum - 2/5
Plum/Zazie - 1/5

I actually want to check up on this. Last time (oh, the refrain!) when I as lynched I think the town really could have benefited from taking a look at my suspicions before I was lynched Day 1. Granted, last time I was quite sure of one scumbag - Crazy here doesn't have many concrete suspicions, and he dropped and reversed his attacks on Zazie, which previously was his major case. That's enough to convince me to swallow my pride and take another look at Zazie with this in mind alongside my previous read of her and see what comes of it.

Thoughts on Zazie:

- She seems to seriously believe that the Sens approach, or a variation thereon, is the/an optimal strategy in this setup.

- I still don't see any legit reason for her to see a lie and go for LAL in the case of Crazy's arguments - but apparently Crazy did? I have a bad feeling I got lost in the intense discussion over pages 6 and 7 between Crazy and Zazie.

- Still bad = apparent misrepresentation of Crazy (I say apparent because Crazy himself seemed to accept that the LAL-attack had some weight, though I can't see exactly where. It's possible that within the long discussion it became clear that Zazie didn't misrep Crazy/that her accusation wasn't junk, and I missed it).

- Very good = not so much at the end (she was mostly busy having things out with Crazy by then), but at the beginning she did a

lot

of direct questioning to specific players, which, in retrospect (darned 20/20 vision always comes a bit late) strikes me as both a very good, pro-town thing and something the scum would want to avoid doing. She questioned me, Crazy, and Chief (Kmd's predecessor) a fair amount. OP and kirroha not quite as much (though she did put OP at L-1 and encouraged a hammer. Hm). Kirroha, I note, never really answered her. Anyway, scum would either want to avoid doing that, because this setup leaves almost no room for bussing, or not question too strongly.

Additionally, I need to do some thinkng about possible pairings.

OP/kirroha
Kmd/OP
Zazie/kirroha
Zazie/Kmd
Kmd/kirroha
Zazie/OP

There we are, in order, scummiest to least scummy. I want to analyze someone else - OP - because I see scumminess without some of the mitgating/pro-town seeming factors I've found in Zazie.

His first slew of posts are RVS arguments with Crazy about previous games, then some jokey comments, again in the RVS. I wouldn't mind so much except that the sheer percentage of the jokey posts of his total posts in this game is . . . sheer. He has 16 posts in this game; a full 8, yes, that's %50, are RVS stuff which is just about irrelevant. Arguably he brought up a different LAL point on Crazy, but that still strikes me as

NOT RELATED TO THE GAME AT HAND

. I vote him in a proddy sort of way, hoping to get him to show up and post content. He did not, merely throwing out an OMGUS. I don't mind OMGUS in and of itself, but this was entirely info-less in a game where sharing info and discussion is even more crucial than usual.

At this point he's put at L-1 and gives some standard pleas not to lynch him for lack of much case - and, fair enough, at that point he hadn't done anything egregious enough to warrant a lynch for scumminess (Zazie's use of the Sens approach does not call for a case - in fact, I think it encourages the opposite, at least when starting/building wagons).

unvote, Vote: Crazy

Lynch all liars.

This is OP's response to Zazie's accusation of Crazy. It makes my gut twinge, a little, the lack of brief summary of Crazy's lie (it's just parroting, and for that matter parroting something which is hard to dissect with just a mantra and vote). I want to see what sort of follow-up OP has for this . . .

I still think Plum and Crazy are scum. Hopefully together. Would be happy with either of their lynches, but am happier w/ Crazy.

We've barely had a case on Crazy from him at all, and none on me (unless you count his vague gut suspicions on me earlier as a case). Why, OP? Could you explain in greater detail? Who are your top suspects now and

why?

Why have I seen relatively little expounded scumhunting from you - mostly votes and accusations with little in the way of an explanation or summary of how you reached your conclusions.

OP's my top suspect - followed, I guess, by kirroha, who wasn't around through much of the Crazy-wagon-discussion and wasn't too verbose afterwards. I guess my biggest problem with her is that little, if anything sticks out in my mind. Except one thing which I'd like to ask her about after she posts with whatever she's got to post. Not voting OP yet - I want to see the aforementioned stuff happen, plus it's LYLO, so I'm not inclined to vote hastily, especially as OP hasn't posted yet Day 2.

[Kmd4390]

I'm alive in 9 (only counting my main account and only counting MS), so I've slowed down quite a bit from what I'm used to. Still not doing much for me. Oh well. I'm sure that after a break, I'll want to come back to 4-5 games.

[Kmd4390]

LMAO!!!!!!

Wrong thread. Mod, delete that post and this one please.

[Tenchi]

Didn't see anything...

[Kmd4390]

Didn't see anything...

It's still there. =/

It will be up to everyone whether they want to ignore it or not.

[Tenchi]

kirroha has been prodded.