Mini 767: Cubic Mafia (Game Over!)

[Trumpet of Doom]

madeofphail's looking a bit more town to me.

Unvote.

I think our main disagreements at this point have to do more with theory than with this game itself.

All right, let's go through this player by player:

Seraphim: confirmed town.
B_B: mostly confirmed.
caf19: town vibes.
KoC: neutral.
madeofphail: neutral, borderline scummy.
SSK: Whether or not this is how he always plays, it's reaching the point where I can't put up with it. God, he's worse than zwet about short posts... at least with zwet, you can tell that there is, in fact, a thought process going on.

Oh, hell with it.

Vote: MafiaSSK

for L-1.

[Seraphim]

Mod: Note my sig.

[Beyond_Birthday]

Best play perhaps?

Vote MafiaSSK

Fair thee well. And to be honest, I'm in a bad mood...

[MafiaSSK]

Oh man. I played terribly in this game. Much apologies.

[Kairyuu]

As the day drags on, the townspeople decided that MafiaSSK is, in fact, the one who needs to die. As you string him up he utters a few, last, incomprehensible words, and dies.

MafiaSSK

, Vanilla townie, lynched D3

Night 3 starts now, and the deadline is Sunday at 8pm EST.

[Kairyuu]

The Day dawn bright and sunny, and it's tranquility is marred only by the corpse of Seraphim, which had been left in the middle of the town square, hanging from a clothesline.

Seraphim

, Innocent Child, killed N3

[Beyond_Birthday]

I've got nothing.

[Trumpet of Doom]

...why did I not see this earlier?

Okay, everyone, let's look back at Isacc's 394. He tells us to look at madeofphail, caf19, and SSK. I forget exactly where I heard this, but I remember hearing that one in three is a good benchmark for scum in a scum player's scum list, so that means there's probably one scum in the set {

SSK,

caf, madeofphail}. Upon reread, I can kinda see a cafscum case, and I'm not sure what I was thinking saying madeofphail was looking more town in post 500, so either of them could still be scum; probably not both, though, as I think Isacc's a smart enough player not to bus both his scumbuddies as he's going down.

But assuming a three-person scumteam, that means there also must be one scum in the set {B_B, KoC, me}. It's probably not B_B, and I know it's not me, so:

Vote: Knight of Cydonia
IGMEOY: caf19, madeofphail

[caf19]

Hold up, ToD. It's (presumably) LyLo. You shouldn't be voting right now, imo.

Massclaim anyone?

[Trumpet of Doom]

Hold up, ToD. It's (presumably) LyLo.

With you so far.

You shouldn't be voting right now, imo.

I sort of agree, but I can't see any way for KoC not to be scum. Here's my logic:

These are all the possible scumteams currently alive:

• ToD-B_B
  ToD-caf
  ToD-madeofphail
  ToD-KoC
  B_B-caf
  B_B-madeofphail
  B_B-KoC
  caf-madeofphail
  caf-KoC
  madeofphail-KoC

Now, assuming that in 394, Isacc cast aspersions on one of his scumbuddies but not the other, this actually rules out four pairings (I forgot to mention B_B when listing the players Isacc slammed): B_B-caf, B_B-madeofphail, caf-madeofphail, and ToD-KoC. The revised list looks like this:

• ToD-B_B
  ToD-caf
  ToD-madeofphail
  B_B-KoC
  caf-KoC
  madeofphail-KoC

Essentially, for KoC to be town, I must be scum. And I'm not.

Massclaim anyone?

Sure. I want KoC to go first if we do.

However, before we do that, there was something I said I wanted to talk about after the game, but I think I need to point it out now rather than later. It's in madeofphail's 468:

If you were scum, I would see this as a couple of ways. You would either be fencesitting, trying to distance yourself from the vote in the case of a mislynch, or not wanting to drop the hammer on a fellow scum.

If you were town: maybe you have some sort of power role that lets you investigate, and you know ssk is a mislynch, and so don't want to hammer him.

In any case, by not wanting to hammer someone that you see as a reasonable lynch, you seem to display knowledge that the rest of us don't possess.

Role speculation much? This sounds like he's saying I might be a cop if I'm town. Bad madeofphail. And what's even worse is that earlier, in 420, he says about his D2 play that he "wasn't trying to commit roleouting." Well, he was in 468.

This is about where I stand on everyone at this point: (scummiest at top)
1. KoC
2. madeofphail
3. caf19
4. B_B
5. ToD

[madeofphail]

Role speculation much? This sounds like he's saying I might be a cop if I'm town. Bad madeofphail. And what's even worse is that earlier, in 420, he says about his D2 play that he "wasn't trying to commit roleouting." Well, he was in 468.

I am roleouting, in a fashion. If scum counts as a role. I apologize for not making this clearer as I am not helping by remaining this vague.

by suggesting that you have info that we don't I was suggesting that you have a power that some of us don't. If you're town that would be role outing. But you could just as easily be scum in my eyes. If you were scum, it would only be natural for you to know who's townie and who's not.

Furthermore, a role out would only help find scum at this point because it seems to me like all of the town power roles have already been outed. After all, this is a normal setup, and we have a claimed watcher, a confirmed one-shot vig (dead), a confirmed mod-confirmable townie (dead). The only players with extra info are scum. I think that you seemed like you had outside info, and so I had a good reason to suspect that you were scum.

I apologize for not presenting my theory in a more organized manner. Obviously I am not helping anyone by remaining vague,so I would be happy to answer any more questions.

[Trumpet of Doom]

I am roleouting, in a fashion. If scum counts as a role. I apologize for not making this clearer as I am not helping by remaining this vague.

by suggesting that you have info that we don't I was suggesting that you have a power that some of us don't. If you're town that would be role outing. But you could just as easily be scum in my eyes. If you were scum, it would only be natural for you to know who's townie and who's not.

If I were scum, then yes, I would have known that SSK was town. However, if I were town, then scum could have taken your post, said, "hmm, this guy might be an unprotected power role. Let's kill him!" and taken me out.

Furthermore, a role out would only help find scum at this point because it seems to me like all of the town power roles have already been outed.

*headdesk* This game is the reason I added a line to my sig. More on this after the massclaim (which it sounds like you support).

Obviously I am not helping anyone by remaining vague

Funny, I have somewhat opposite experiences. See D6 of Suzumiya Haruhi Mafia for an example.

I would be happy to answer any more questions.

Ah, what the hell, it can't hurt:

Are you scum?
If not, who do you think is scum and why?
Whom would you like to see lynched today?
Whom would you like to start the massclaim?

[madeofphail]

Ah, what the hell, it can't hurt:

Are you scum?
If not, who do you think is scum and why?
Whom would you like to see lynched today?
Whom would you like to start the massclaim?

1). even if I said I wasn't what would make you inclined to believe me? even if I was scum, what would I be suppossed to say? "ok, I'm scum, you got me?". that question won't yield any helpful clues, why bother asking that?
2).on who is scum, although I agree that KoC has been acting oddly, but I want to see what he makes of today before any votes are placed, because as caf stated we could be at lylo right now, and voting wantonly could provide a very bad result. I would suggest unvoting, because if there are two scum then with one vote on someone on a three to lynch day means that as soon as one person votes a townie, the suppossed two scum could jump on and quicklynch for win.3). I'm not sure who I want lynched yet b/c I don't havce a very strong case on anyone.
4). When did I state that I would like a massclaim? Like I stated before, I think that we've had all the pro-town power roles outed, so there are probably just vanillas and scum left, and obviously scum arent going to claim scum, they're probably going to claim vanilla, and not stick their necks out. a massclaim probably won't help much.
---------------------------------
Just to state what little I do think (as it should be quite obvious by now that I'm not very intelligent).

There are five people alive with three to lynch. We do not know for certain if there is two scum. The people alive are as follows: caf, trumpet of doom, beyond birthday, Koc, and of course, me.

Beyond birthday is assumed town ever since he claimed watcher d2 which got us able to lynch our first scum, Isacc. however, D3 he stated:

Doesn't matter, I was role blocked making my ability utterly useless until we target the role blocker with our lynch or he finds someone more worthy of his prevention skills.

then today:

I've got nothing

Which I'm assuming means that he was roleblocked again?

[Knight of Cydonia]

Back, and thinking.
Trumpet, I don't like your "Either I'm scum, or KoC is scum, therefore KoC is scum" argument. The fact that two scum haven't leapt on suggests that you're hoping some poor townie will also jump on, at which point your buddy hammers. Typical scum LyLo tactic.
The lack of any results whatsoever since Isaac means either B_B is scum using "blocked" in conjuction with a massive bus to get clear, or town. I'm leaning town, but not discounting all the possibilities.
made worries me in an indefinable way, which is almost more worrying that a suspicion I can nail down and say "this, this and this is really scummy".

[Beyond_Birthday]

Knight, while it is true I'm insane enough to do exactly as planned, I was blocked.

However, I feel you're scum, and won't discount that as a possibility. So, shall we decide who is scum now?

Of the remaining players, here is a list of scummiest to least scummy. Not, Mine is much more general than a simple 1-5 list.

Beyond_Birthday-cleared

Has no clue?
caf19
madeofphail
Trumpet of Doom
Knight of Cydonia

haha...yeah...

Okay, here's the issue: I really need to reread. So, I will do that mmm....today at some point. let's say in the next 10 hours after all other affairs are in order. Hopefully, I can make a case, and I will be more productive than I have been. Sorry for my lack of full force in this game.

[caf19]

Trumpet, why are you suddenly taking the 'one of three' rule as such gospel? To me, it doesn't seem so hard and fast as to govern your vote in LyLo. Going on that policy instead of people's actual behaviour seems... counterproductive.

That said, it's noted that no scumz appear to be quickhammering. Which I'm somewhat thankful for...


I don't think there's much of a reason not to massclaim at this point - even if it does happen to turn up all-vanilla or something, we haven't lost anything. I'm fine with a popcorn-style order, with KoC going first. Any objections?

[Knight of Cydonia]

I'm fine with that, and will claim as soon as everyone else has chipped in.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Ah, what the hell, it can't hurt:

Are you scum?
If not, who do you think is scum and why?
Whom would you like to see lynched today?
Whom would you like to start the massclaim?

1). even if I said I wasn't what would make you inclined to believe me? even if I was scum, what would I be suppossed to say? "ok, I'm scum, you got me?". that question won't yield any helpful clues, why bother asking that?

That's the expected response, and the worst-case scenario if I asked (that I'd get nothing out of it, hence the "it can't hurt" that you so nicely quoted). I was crossing my fingers that if you were, you'd slip up or say something that I could use to catch you.

2).on who is scum, although I agree that KoC has been acting oddly, but I want to see what he makes of today before any votes are placed, because as caf stated we could be at lylo right now, and voting wantonly could provide a very bad result. I would suggest unvoting, because if there are two scum then with one vote on someone on a three to lynch day means that as soon as one person votes a townie, the suppossed two scum could jump on and quicklynch for win.

Oh, all right.

Unvote

, but KoC still draws an

HoS

.

4). When did I state that I would like a massclaim?

Well, you didn't outright say it, but the part in 509 where you said "a role out would only help find scum" sounded like support for the idea.

Like I stated before, I think that we've had all the pro-town power roles outed

FTR, I can think of a few different town PRs which might still be in the game. Again, I'll elaborate after massclaim.

a massclaim probably won't help much.

But it won't hurt any, if I'm reading this right. What I'm getting out of your posts (but this might just be me reading my own opinion into this) is that although there's not likely to be an upside to massclaim, there is no clear downside, so at worst we end up where we started and at best we might get something out of it.

The lack of any results whatsoever since Isaac means either B_B is scum using "blocked" in conjuction with a massive bus to get clear, or town. I'm leaning town, but not discounting all the possibilities.

/agree that there's a nonzero chance B_B is scum, I just think it's low.

made worries me in an indefinable way, which is almost more worrying that a suspicion I can nail down and say "this, this and this is really scummy".

As I've said before, I can get behind a madeofphail lynch. I think I'd prefer KoC for today, but madeofphail is my second choice.

Trumpet, why are you suddenly taking the 'one of three' rule as such gospel?

Here's the thing: I know from personal experience that trying to bus all of your remaining scumteam as you're going down is a bad idea, I've tried it myself. So (WIFOM alert) I don't believe Isacc would have gone after both his scumpartners in 394, meaning I think there's at most one scum among {caf, madeofphail, B_B}. I suppose that for the rest of you, it's conceivable that none of you three are scum, making a ToD-KoC scumteam; even so, that still means at least one of KoC or myself is scum.

I'm fine with a popcorn-style order, with KoC going first. Any objections?

None here.

[Trumpet of Doom]

I don't believe Isacc would have gone after both his scumpartners in 394

And yes, I do realize that's a bit of a leap of faith.

[Beyond_Birthday]

1) Isacc's claim does not preclude the existence of another player who targeted Magnus. Even if he's telling the truth, "B_B=scum" is a non sequitur.

2) If B_B's lying, he's got some serious cojones. Especially since he claimed first, and we should be nowhere near lylo - there is no good reason for scum to claim unprovoked at this point.

1) Would be logical, normally. However, B_B's lie about me targeting Magnus results in the only logical conclusion being that he is scum (or town lying, but in this situation I see no reason for town to lie).

2) Well, it sure seems to be working predictably. You're all jumping on his bandwagon quite fast, doncha think? Seems like it wasn't such a crazy strategy to pull off.


If you guys really think I am the more likely scum here, I think you should consider BB's play end of the last day.

Post 339, he jumps on the Walnut wagon with pretty much no reasoning for his actual vote. He posts a lot of speculation about who would be scummy based on the flip, but never actually justifies his case.

Commandeering a mislynch much?

In other news, in the event that I am mislynched, I would like to note:

1) Take a look at MadeofPhail. Starts of wanting to discuss night actions (DING DING DING) and then jumps pretty quick on this wagon.

2) I'd watch out for Caf19. Notice his last post says I am the right lynch, but he fails to actually vote me, and asks others' opinions first. Seems like he wants to make sure he's getting on the popular wagon before he commits.

3) MafiaSSK is another Walnut wagon surprise. I don't really think he ever gave any explanation at all for that vote.

4) Nocmen is obvtown by 382.

Yeah I know, early to be giving "If I get lynched" sentiments, but I am going to be gone all of tomorrow, and most of sunday.

I think the most interesting part of this post is his reference to my earlier post on the Walnut flip, which at this moment I am sure is 100% correct.

1. MadeofPhail is likely town, but soft doubt is cast on it as Isacc=caught GF.
2. Soft doubt on Caf19. I am 100% certain one of MoP and Caf is scum.
3. Defends MafiaSSK
4. Nocman is obvtown.

Confirmed:
3. MafiaSSK IS TOWN
4. Nocman IS TOWN.


However, in this post he attacks me for my thoughts on Walnut, which again, I believe is 100% correct.

I said:

"If Walnut is scum, Phily is 30% likely to be scum.
Magnus' forgetfulness to include Phily and his near passive play in reference to.
If Walnut isn't scum, I would suggest Caf19 is scum with Magnus Orion.
Magnus found, in his post on the last page, a question Caf asked that he called scummy. Caf never responded and Magnus never pursued it. This is scummy on both.
A third partner could be Dourgrim, but this is far less likely. (But a more likely third partner to those two than anyone else.)
If Magnus did coach Caf as my last post alludes to as a possibility, it could be infered that he reminded Caf of something along the lines of: Don't suspect Dour without reason, even though you know he's scum."

I think that Caf19 is very likely scum. As is Knight, but we must be careful here. 1 misvote by town could lead to game over.

Thoughts?

[caf19]

Isacc made that post when he knew he was going down. Therefore, its purpose will have been to confuse and WIFOM the townies into making wrong decisions in future. I don't think we should really take anything substantial from it...

Also, BB, your post on Walnut says that I might be scum buddies with magnus. But magnus was town - so how does that still make me scum?

[Beyond_Birthday]

Because, I find it odd that Isacc would suspect you while simultaneously discrediting my post UNLESS I was right about something. I think you're the roleblocker, which is why the mafia godfather wanted to protect you most of all.

[Trumpet of Doom]

B_B, where are you getting "Isacc=GF" from?

And re: why he tried to slam both you and caf: We can argue reasons all day, and it won't be any more than WIFOM (well, maybe his scumpartners know, but why would they be so nice as to tell us what Isacc was going for?). For all we know, his reasons for casting aspersions on the two of you could be completely separate: he could have been, for instance, trying to get us to mislynch a (claimed) power role and then picking a few players who were doing things he could claim were scummy.

Incidentally, it seems to me that if Isacc was trying to protect the roleblocker, he would have

not

called attention to the RB's actions, making madeofphail/caf (pick your suspect)

less

likely to be RB. (Then again, I could simply have no idea what I'm talking about. Wouldn't be the first time, probably won't be the last.)

[caf19]

madeofphail, do you object to a massclaim?

[Beyond_Birthday]

Madeofphail=actually, misread the first post. Saw "Go" and thought GF. My bad. Anyway, I will be gone until Tuesday afternoon. I apologize for the inconvenience.

Side note: Isacc cleared two confirmed (via death) townies. It would make sense that one of the mafia members is in the four mentioned.