Mini 774: Case Closed Mafia (One Truth Prevails!)

[Battousai]

I already put my input in, so I'm just waiting for others to comment/post thoughts on what is what.

Are you saying that since the SK knows there is probably going to be a no lynch today, we should vote?

SC's character is a teacher. Since Conan is a child, he has to go to school, and SC is his teacher. The teacher takes an active role with Conan's detective group.

To continue roleclaiming- I'm a vanilla townie; your turn Korlash.

[Korlash]

I'm also a vanilla townie. I'm very disapointed in the number of townie roles in this game especially seeing as how two of our roles were grouped out of existance. However it does increase the odds of only two mafia so I can live with it.

Are you saying that since the SK knows there is probably going to be a no lynch today, we should vote?

No, I'm just saying a no lynch is kinda worthless if the SK knows how to play. If he doesn't then I guess a no lynch might help in some ways so it's not a total waste of time but I still don't think going straight to no lynch right off the bat is the best course of action.

SC's character is a teacher. Since Conan is a child, he has to go to school, and SC is his teacher. The teacher takes an active role with Conan's detective group.

Does she like help them solve cases and stuff or what?

I already put my input in, so I'm just waiting for others to comment/post thoughts on what is what.

You can't tell people not to rush the day and then sit around and wait on them. It makes no sense, and litterally qualifies for the "too townie" argument. You are simply saying somthing that sounds like a protown thing to say without actually doing anything about it, one of those actions don't match what you say things.

[StrangerCoug]

SC's character is a teacher. Since Conan is a child, he has to go to school, and SC is his teacher. The teacher takes an active role with Conan's detective group.

Does she like help them solve cases and stuff or what?

It kind of helps my being their manager. I'm a big fan of Rampo Edogawa stories, as well.

[Battousai]

What am I supposed to say, if I already said what I wanted to and one person isn't even on?

[Sajin]

That magiced flavor is really bothering me. I would suppose the doc protected night 1?

Both vanillas, interesting. I could support a no lynch today.

If millar's targets are true then Batt would be likely innocent as he was shot by the SK night 1 and protected. Correct me if I am wrong about this assumption. However the larger assumption is millar correctly giving us targets...

[Battousai]

Or the SK chose not to act N1.

[Korlash]

I think Doc protection is the better assumption then an SK no kill. If the Sk didn't kill I would assume it was becuase he couldn't.

The way I see it it's 1 in three, ok 1 in four chance bat is the SK. Both the SK trying to kill him if he isn't and the SK being unable to kill if he is are equally unprovable and possible situations.

If we are to assume Bat is cleared we only hav a 1 in four chance of being wrong while we have a 3 in four chance of cutting the scum pool down. I can live with those odds. I'm not too bent out of shape when scum wins due to faulty doc protection anyways so even if we're wrong about it it's not the worst assumption.

However, the key thing to realize now is that if Bat isn't the SK he is the prime target for tonight. Meaning a no lynch, if it results in town Bat's kill only serves to harm the town by bringing the needed lynch votes down to two.

However the larger assumption is millar correctly giving us targets...

I'm not in the business of assuming town lied to us. 9 times out of 10 they told the truth and that 10th time usually isn't big enough to break the game open. It's pointless to worrry about. it's like worrying about a jester role. It's dumb and only serves to waste time. Miller didn't get his anti-town feelings until after he claimed targets so I see no reason to even suspect he was lying about them.

It kind of helps my being their manager. I'm a big fan of Rampo Edogawa stories, as well.

Yeah and she never puts two and two together. I can read wiki's too but it doesn't help me figure out who she is and what part she actually played.

[Battousai]

That doesn't make sense. If I'm the prime target, then you can predict that the SK will kill me. Ok I get that part, but saying a no lynch would harm the town because town would need two votes. So, you are saying it would be easier to lynch the SK in a 3 v 1 setup over a 2 v 1 setup? Wouldn't it be harder since the SK gets to hide between 3 townies over 2 and town have a 1 in 3 chance of correctly voting for the SK.

[Korlash]

No I'm saying that in a 3v1 setup a stupid town doesn't lose us the game, where-as in a 2v1 setup one misvote and the game is over.

And the scum isn't hiding in 3 townies, only two. In the 3v1 setup we are assuming you are town, thus we have the scum pool of a 2v1 with the added accentive of safety that a 3v1 has.

Are you following me? I have been told I am bad with numbers.

[Battousai]

But what if we mislynch and I'm still alive tomorrow?

[Battousai]

EBWOP: No lynch, not mislynch.

[Korlash]

And? What about it? Once we talk about why a no lynch is stupid it gives the scum opprotunity to go against the norm and change everything thus making a no lynch completely unpredicatble and full of wifom.

You being alive tomorrow proves nothing and suggests nothing on it's own. Especially if we are acting on an assuption you are town today.

[Gorrad]

V/LA until Sunday

[StrangerCoug]

But what if we mislynch and I'm still alive tomorrow?

This reeks a little bit of paranoia.

FoS: Battousai

[Battousai]

How is paranoia a scum trait?

[Sajin]

But what if we mislynch and I'm still alive tomorrow?

This reeks a little bit of paranoia.

FoS: Battousai

Why do you want to fos the only clear we may have?

fos SC

[StrangerCoug]

How is paranoia a scum trait?

If you're worried about still being alive, then it's possible that you don't want to be caught as scum.

Why do you want to fos the only clear we may have?

fos SC

Because I honestly don't see Battousai as cleared. If he is the SK that we're looking for, then either he didn't shoot night one or millar13 was a paranoid doctor.

[Battousai]

So you are saying I am more likely the SK who, when still alive tomorrow, is worried about how people react to it, over a townie who is concerned over WIFOM?

[StrangerCoug]

So you are saying I am more likely the SK who, when still alive tomorrow, is worried about how people react to it, over a townie who is concerned over WIFOM?

Over Korlash, yes, a little bit. If not lynching will cause a prisoner's dilemma situation, which I don't think, then I'm pretty sure Sajin's Mafia as it fits with his scummy behavior earlier and there not being a successful Mafia kill last night (he was V/LA, right?), but I'm worried more about looking for the SK than a third Mafia that we may or may not have.

[Battousai]

Actually, if there is a mafia left then both the mafia member and the SK need to claim. It helps everyone; mafia, SK, and town.

[StrangerCoug]

I don't exactly see how that hurts, but since we don't know whether another Mafia member exists, we would need to massclaim Mafia/not Mafia first. If all four of us claim non-Mafia, then the serial killer claiming today would be suicide, so we can safely No Lynch without losing tonight. If a Mafia claims, then the SK claims and town wins prisoner's dilemma (as the Mafia and SK would have to shoot each other to win, but will both end up losing anyway with correct play on both sides).

Do you like my idea?

[Korlash]

Actually, if there is a mafia left then both the mafia member and the SK need to claim. It helps everyone; mafia, SK, and town.

What is with the sudden internet fascination with asking scum to claim? Saying the Mafia and Sk should claim will not ever result in both the SK and mafia claiming. If by some miracle you get one to claim the other won't, and if the first knows this he will never claim as well.

In short, people stop asking scum to claim in endgame situations...

Do you like my idea?

If it gets the scum to claim sure but that wont happen...

[Sajin]

SC-You flipped your position, you wanted to nl because you thought there was one left. Now you think there are 2??? You sow confusion and doubt into everything (Paranoid doctor, thats a little farfetched) and you provide the lowest odds circumstances of occurring to explain what happened. You did not want a clear to even have the chance to exist. Explain.

[Korlash]

SC didn't flip his position. in fact he made it quite clear twice he didn't feel a mafia existed.

[Battousai]

Korlash- What's the harm in asking? None. And when someone does ask, it is not pro-town to give reasons to the scum for not doing it.