Mini 774: Case Closed Mafia (One Truth Prevails!)

[Korlash]

Kind of hard to put an anti town spin on what I said. I wouldn't argue it as in anyway pro-town, but it's not scummy. Asking stupid questions isn't scummy but it is a complete waste of time, unless you want to argue you felt the rest of us were idiots and you actually thought scum would claim. And of course SC's idea of claiming "not mafia" is borderline on the anti town scale simply because it wastes our time and gains us nothing.

Actually if you really want to argue it what I said kinda helps show I'm town. If I were scum I would be all for the other scum claiming so I wouldn't say what I did. So... how can you call something that shows me to be town anti town?

It's all a waste of time either way and I'm in no way saying this confirms me as town or anything of the sort. And I really don't care if you ask, although yeah I doubt it's going to do anything? I've just been in a recent streak of games with people saying the exact same thing and pushing it. I even had a claimed SK say he was confirmed as the SK because no one counterclaimed. How dumb is that? No real SK will counterclaim the claim of SK, he would just kill the guy at night. Sorry, don't mean to get my games crossed.

So Bat, any comments on the other guys? What about this thing sai brought up? Do you feel SC flipped his position or do you feel Sai is reaching and/or misinterpreting facts? You say you have already put your imput in yet there are still plenty of things for you to comment on.

[Sajin]

@Korlash, Why would SC want to nl and then consider the possibility of 2 scum? The only role that a nl would be advantageous to in both circumstances is a scum role.

[Korlash]

It's called looking at both sides of an argument in order to make an informed decision. SC wants to no lynch, it's only logical he would look at the option of two scum left in order to A) Make sure he is making the right decision and B) Try to convince people to join his way of thinking.

[StrangerCoug]

SC-You flipped your position, you wanted to nl because you thought there was one left. Now you think there are 2??? You sow confusion and doubt into everything (Paranoid doctor, thats a little farfetched) and you provide the lowest odds circumstances of occurring to explain what happened. You did not want a clear to even have the chance to exist. Explain.

First off, I did not flip my position; I was offering the possibility that I'm wrong. Battousai's plan, which I added to a bit, should work well in determining where we stand. This is basically a ditto on what Korlash is saying.

Here's all the possibilities assuming no No Kills:

• SK only, we lynch him:
  Town obviously wins.
  
• SK only, we lynch a townie:
  SK wins as long as he makes a kill.
  
• SK only, we don't lynch:
  Three-person LYLO, which makes the SK easier to find than right now.
  
• Mafia and SK, we lynch one of them:
  The other scum wins as long as he makes a kill.
  
• Mafia and SK, we lynch a townie:
  Three-person prisoner's dilemma (one chance in four of a crosskill for a town win assuming the kills are random).
  
• Mafia and SK, we don't lynch:
  Four-person prisoner's dilemma (one chance in nine of a crosskill for a town win assuming the kills are random).

Do you see where we are at?

[Sajin]

If you really do think all of these things are possible (and for the record they are) then why would you propose no lynching when thats auto fail for us in your later brought up possibility

Therefore your opinion must not have been the same all day. Thats scummy to me

vote SC

[Korlash]

A no lynch isn't auto phail for us in any situation but one with two mafia left and that's impossible as the day is still going.

[StrangerCoug]

If you really do think all of these things are possible (and for the record they are) then why would you propose no lynching when thats auto fail for us in your later brought up possibility

Therefore your opinion must not have been the same all day. Thats scummy to me

vote SC

What the hell, Sajin? First off, no-lynching is not auto-fail; otherwise, we would be in true LYLO at this point. The worst case scenario from what I understand is that we lose prisoner's dilemma. Also, possible ≠ probable. Prime example: Is it possible for me to die in real life today? Yes. Is it

probable

for me to die in real life today? No.

Major FoS: Sajin

. The only thing keeping me from voting you is that I still think no lynching is our best option today.

[Battousai]

Korlash-

There is always a chance that scum would claim so that they can plan whether or not to kill. You just gave them reasons on why they should not, that is not protown and is hurtful to the town if the mafia didn't think of it until you said it, and decided not to do it.

If you are the last mafia, you don't want to claim first and get killed.

Saying it wastes time and arguing against it, is kind of wasting time as well since if we all just claimed Not Mafia as SC said, it could have been all said and done and we could have moved past it by now.

Yes, I put in what I already wanted to say, and I was waiting on people to post their comments so I can reply to it. That was when people weren't posting and I was waiting for replies. If you think I am scummy for saying that and then not posting anything about Sajin's flip argument right away, then say it. Don't subtly say it.

Could you give us a few of your recent games that people have wanted to make sure there wasn't a sk and mafia at endgame?

Sajin-

I see what you were saying, going from no lynch and then bringing up the possibility of 2 scum factions left is opposite thinking. But... when you come up with a plan of action, it is best to look at it from different stand points- what can happen. SC has done this, so I think he is more likely trying to be thorough.

Did you even read the possible outcomes? Only two of six possibilities involved no lynching and only one of the two is a worse outcome compared to voting.

[Korlash]

Korlash- There is always a chance that scum would claim so that they can plan whether or not to kill. You just gave them reasons on why they should not, that is not protown and is hurtful to the town if the mafia didn't think of it until you said it, and decided not to do it.

Mafia don't need to plan to kill. They only claim if they plan TO BE KILLED. I really don't see where you are going with this, if scum claims they lose. End of story. None of us are newbie enough to think any differently. The odds of one of us claiming scum seems like a 1 in about 80 shot to me, so if you want to call me that 1/80th anti town go ahead. 79 more actions like it and you might have a good point on me.

If you are the last mafia, you don't want to claim first and get killed.

If 'anyone' is the last mafia they don't want to claim first.

Saying it wastes time and arguing against it, is kind of wasting time as well since if we all just claimed Not Mafia as SC said, it could have been all said and done and we could have moved past it by now.

Arguably not true. One could argue that arguing against wastes of time is a good use of time. Either You argue against the waste of time thus bringing it to town's attention and doing your part to stop the spread of the wasted time, or you go with it and could potentially end up wasting more time. All in all I find it a waste of time anyways so you are right.

But while I may be wasting my time arguing with you over this I am not wasting my time in my arguments with SC and Sajin and thusly I'm 2/3s not wasting my time and thusly overall am using the majority of my time wisely. =D

Yes, I put in what I already wanted to say, and I was waiting on people to post their comments so I can reply to it. That was when people weren't posting and I was waiting for replies. If you think I am scummy for saying that and then not posting anything about Sajin's flip argument right away, then say it. Don't subtly say it.

I don't think you are scummy for it. I was simply illustrating my point. A while ago I asked you to comment on others as it didn't match what you were saying about not rushing the day, you said you already put in your input. As I showed with Sajin, just because you put in some input a week ago doesn't mean you can't do more today.

But if you were waiting for people to reply to what you said why did you not ask Sajin for his comments on it? He pretty much ignored what you said and so my point still stands as to why you didn't comment on him.

Could you give us a few of your recent games that people have wanted to make sure there wasn't a sk and mafia at endgame?

It's on another site and if I linked stuff I would be glad to give you place, but I don't. Never have and never will, not really a gaming issue i'm just to lazy to back up stuff I don't find important. Either you can trust me I've been i this situation or you can present some argument as to why I, as scum, would lie about such a thing. Or of course you can surf the web trying to find the site but i wouldn't recommend that...

Sajin- I see what you were saying, going from no lynch and then bringing up the possibility of 2 scum factions left is opposite thinking. But... when you come up with a plan of action, it is best to look at it from different stand points- what can happen. SC has done this, so I think he is more likely trying to be thorough.

This is borderline fence sitting and contradictory in and of itself. Going from no lynch and then bringing up the possibility of 2 scum factions is not opposite thinking. That alone isn't enough to say either way. It can be both the start of opposite thinking or the looking at both sides. In order for it to be opposite thinking SC would have had to actually act in some way upon the idea of 2 scum, he didn't. What he did was pure speculation, and it's a pretty hard thing to define speculation as opposite thinking.

Sajin was completely wrong and near misinterpreting facts, to even suggest half of what he was saying was on the right track is scummy on your part. That's playing into the feud between them.

Glad this game is heating up though...

[Sajin]

I think the most incriminating thing about SC is that he did not shoot the clear yesterday and he is the only 1 to not realize there could of been one yesterday.

You can talk about possibilities all you wish. This does not make them all equally likely. Sure you can hit on 19.....but would you?

What matters are the odds. I have concluded that based on kill flavor and night actions and reactions to events that SC is the likeliest to be the SK. There is a point where being through about possibilities just muddies the waters you are searching.

[StrangerCoug]

I think the most incriminating thing about SC is that he did not shoot the clear yesterday and he is the only 1 to not realize there could of been one yesterday.

Uhh... Unless you're a tracker, you don't know if I shot

anybody

.

What matters are the odds. I have concluded that based on kill flavor and night actions and reactions to events that SC is the likeliest to be the SK. There is a point where being through about possibilities just muddies the waters you are searching.

Would you like to forget about every single possibility you don't support and die as a result? If I am the SK, you guys lynch me, and we have a Mafia goon outstanding, that person wins. We're trying to figure out if that goon we're worried about exists. You're being seriously anti-information here.

[Sajin]

and your being seriously anti-probability.

12 total with 4 scum including a role blocker and a SK with 2 kills total?


Tell me how likely you think that is. Some percents please.

[StrangerCoug]

and your being seriously anti-probability.

12 total with 4 scum including a role blocker and a SK with 2 kills total?

I've modded a game with 4 scum including not only a roleblocker and an SK, but a one-shot vig on the town side as well. Granted, I don't like the balance in that game, but it's proof enough it's been done.

Tell me how likely you think that is. Some percents please.

I would argue for less than 10%, but forgetting about that small amount is not an option when everybody's life is on the line.

[Sajin]

I think the most incriminating thing about SC is that he did not shoot the clear yesterday and he is the only 1 to not realize there could of been one yesterday.

Uhh... Unless you're a tracker, you don't know if I shot

anybody

.

Thats not the point, Korlash and myself both realized that Batt was likely clear. You did not at the start of today. If Korlash or myself had a killing role we would of shot the clear. Now wait your about to say "WIFOM! You could of shot someone else to frame!". Yes, I could of. Yes, Korlash could of. But, it still tilts the odds of you being the last scum higher.

[StrangerCoug]

I think the most incriminating thing about SC is that he did not shoot the clear yesterday and he is the only 1 to not realize there could of been one yesterday.

Uhh... Unless you're a tracker, you don't know if I shot

anybody

.

Thats not the point, Korlash and myself both realized that Batt was likely clear.

You have a problem with your argument: Likely clear ≠ 100% confirmed town, which is implied by "clear" without any qualifying actions. It only says the odds favor a player being town.

You did not at the start of today. If Korlash or myself had a killing role we would of shot the clear.

Battousai was panicking over WIFOM if he was to still be alive tomorrow, which made him suspicious in my mind. If we are to believe millar13, then yes, Battousai was protected, and thus likely town. To 100% clear him is to assume Battousai, for some reason (even if the reason is that he couldn't have), didn't shoot Night 1 and/or millar13 wasn't paranoid. I believe I am being consistent in my thinking here. I'm fully aware of my going against the odds; but covering all bases is sometimes a good thing.

Now wait your about to say "WIFOM! You could of shot someone else to frame!".

For the record, yes I am.

Yes, I could of. Yes, Korlash could of. But, it still tilts the odds of you being the last scum higher.

This doesn't make an awful lot of sense. How do you not shoot someone most likely town in order to frame a third party?

[Sajin]

By your own theory you stated I am unlikely to be an SK. SC- Am I more likely or less likely in your point of view to be a SK then any other players?

[StrangerCoug]

By your own theory you stated I am unlikely to be an SK. SC- Am I more likely or less likely in your point of view to be a SK then any other players?

I'd like you to quote where I said that, but I still think Battousai is most likely SK and the last Mafia, assuming he isn't dead, is you. If both of my guesses that the Mafia has been wiped out and that Battousai is the SK are wrong, then I'd probably support you being the SK. Korlash hasn't set off too many of my alarms if any at all.

[StrangerCoug]

EBWOP: Realized that doesn't make a lot of sense. My guess that the Mafia has been wiped out would have to be right, not wrong, for me to support you being the SK. Battousai not being the SK still stands.

[Sajin]

Note, will be V/LA for next 48 hours (going back) as per sig.

I agree with those odds you posted SC. You do realize its higher odds to randomly lynch scum now.

With a 90 percent chance of hitting a 1/3 or a 1/4.

[Korlash]

how do we have a 90 % chance to hit scum?

[StrangerCoug]

Either he's confident or math isn't his best subject.

[Battousai]

Ok, here are the roles in one of the two Gorrad mini games on this site (the other was jester/2 mafia):

Serial Killer
Mafia Cop
Mafia Traitor
Mafia RB
Mafia Godfather
Death Note Jester
Bulletproof Townie
Mason
Doctor
Vanilla Townie
Cop
PR Giver

There was 3 mafia and a SK, but it was balanced out by traitor, jester, bulletproof townie, and a PR Giver. I'm willing to bet that Gorrad didn't create the setup of 3 mafia, 1 sk without putting in more balance than just a 1 shot vig/tracker/cop/doc.



I'd say it would be best to no lynch at the end of today.

[Sajin]

90 percent of a 1/3 = 9/10*1/3= 9/30= 3/10=30% ; 30% does not equal 90%.

Odds for prisoners dilemma existing and occurring are FAR lower. Thats my point.


Regardless,

unvote ; vote no lynch

[Korlash]

I still don't get your point... something about 90% = 30% through some fractions of things...

[Sajin]

90 percent of 1/3. In math word problems the word "of" means you multiply.