Newbie 789 (Game over!)

[Azhrei]

Mod: Can we get an extension due to the replacement?

[Elmo]

Day 1, Vote Count #8

Raivann (2) <- Amished, Cojin
Hamburger (2) <- camn, arelian
camn (2) <- Josh Lyman, Azhrei,
Amished <- Raivann

Not voting: Hamburger, AShadowedHeart.
The

deadline

is Sunday, 7th June 22:00 UTC, which is 6 days, 12 hours and 24 minutes from this post.
With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.

Mod: Can we get an extension due to the replacement?

Nope.

I'm trying to monitor

another game I'm in

who's deadline is today

Let's not do this, yea?

[Azhrei]

Evil Elmo, evil!

[Amished]

The replacement has plenty of time to get caught up (6+ days away). In the chance that he's scum and we don't have that much time to get a read on him, there's still one more out there to find.

@Mod: Got it, sorry.

[camn]

Plenty of time, hmm?
My reads:

*

Josh Lyman

(Replaced troy49er3)
Jumps on the camn-wagon with no explanation, then vanishes. Prob-scum

*

Cojin

HIs 1st 2 posts could be pretty telling:

Vote Raivann

Because i dont like the name

Early vote may be an attempt at a early bus.

Now, Cojin is pretty new, so I can MAYBE excuse his 1-line posts for the better part of this game... but my forgiveness only lasts until Day 2. I haven't seen much from him that helps the town. Null Read.

*

arelian

Azhrei mentioned that I get town reads off anyone who bothers to post..... this is only PARTLY true. I get >reads< off of people who bother to post. My read on this guy happens to be TOWN.
Even though he is indecisive, he isn't afraid to give an opinion on everyone, which is a town-tell IMO, especially for a newb.

*

AShadowedHeart

(Replaced SustainRelease)
So far not much more useful than your predecessor. See Cojin re: my forgiveness.

*

Hamburger

Not the worst of the lurkers.. I put my earlier vote on him hoping it would encourage some participation. I was wrong again. DieLurkerDie.

*

Raivann

I have a town read on him, plus he stood up to pressure way better than even

experienced

scum usually do. Probtown

*

Azhrei

During this re-read now, it took me until his POST 19 to remember why I think he is town. That was a good post. Reasonable in tone. But something about his posts BEFORE that gave me a weird feeling. split decision.

*

Amished

(SE)
Def one of the more useful players in this game. HOWEVER, I do believe his case on Raivann was and is weak, and his tunneling there isn't helpful. Even though I could see that case as scum trying to bully the newbs, I want him around for D2.

*

camn

(IC)
ObvTown
If you let me live till tomorrow, I am going to destroy your entire scumteam.
Just warning you.

In Summary:

I support a lurkerlynch or a LymanLynch today.
The odds of D1 mislynches are high, generally.. and with short deadlines even higher.
We need to be able to make informed decisions about players based on their POSTS and their VOTES, and lurkers foil this.
We also need people to PLAY, especially in days to come. . . Or Lylo comes quicker.
Eliminating lurkers is both good for THIS game, and good for site-wide Meta. I hope the scum will kill one too... it only makes the game fair.

[Amished]

Camn: Well, there is 6 days left. Should be enough time to read 9 pages and post....

Anyways, you mention Cojin's early posts (and imply that they're scummy), and it's not bussing if scum attack a townie. Yet the person he voted for (that you said *could* be telling, which is a weak viewpoint) you have as probtown. From your viewpoint on Raiv, it appears that you leaning towards the "telling" statements aren't telling at all. In that case, I'd like you to further elaborate on your position towards Cojin, and give a bit more substance there.

Also, what of Raivann's responses/defense did you feel was particularly pro-town? After your unvote you failed to really comment on Raiv at all, and were instead distracted by Az and the lurkers.

[camn]

Re: Cojin.. I don't have a read on him do to lack of decent posts.
My comment means IF raivann flips scum, which I doubt, maybe Cojin has Freudian-slipped?
It is VERY thin, but thats all I got on him!

Re: Raivann.. You are slightly mischaracterizing my views there.
I don't think his responses were PRO-Town.. I think it is consistent with a townie.
Townies and Scum can both act Pro- and Anti-town.
However, his townie posts (by HIS number )
17, 33, 35, 37
I disagree with him re: lurkers and you, Amished... but even his tunneling on you is kind of town-esque.
I think scum in his shoes would jump to follow me onto a lurkerwagon, and thus get themselves off the hotseat.. but he hasn't.

Plus, I wasn't "Distracted". I never really thought he was scum. I don't make a habit of giving reasons why I think people are TOWN, either... but for you, I will

And re: time... sure, 6 days to read sounds reasonable. Then when do we decide who to lynch???

[Cojin]

Sorry i do my one line posts do to 90% of them being done on a cell phone.

[Amished]

4 days from now? Gives time to get caught up (2 pages a day reading is hardly taxing) but we're still not too close to come to a compromise and actually perform a lynch.

And thank you for clearing up what you meant, I obviously found it a little confusing.

[Elmo]

Josh Lyman has been prodded.
Looking for a Hamburger replacement.

[Elmo]

Scien replaces Hamburger.

[arelian]

Hey guys, so time is running out. I'm guessing a no lynch would be a very bad idea, unless we have a cop or something that could potentially get an investigation in. Otherwise we need to come to a consensus before it's too late.

I'm realizing now that my suspicions of Cojin were largely based on how little he posts with each message. If he's posting almost everything from his phone, I can see that as being a legitimate excuse. But seriously, trying to play an entire game of mafia on your phone is probably a pretty bad idea. And it could just be an excuse... I don't know.

I'm suspicious of camn for many reasons, but she is so hard to read that I wouldn't be surprised if she was scum or town. She plays very aggressively, and uses her vote to put pressure on people. She seems to have the ability to explain her actions perfectly- something that I think is scummy of her one moment I'm completely turning around on the next. If she is scum, she is a powerful enemy. I also think if she was scum she would not reveal herself so easily.

Hamburger has not responded to the pressure put onto him by camn and my votes. If camn is scum, though, why would she target hamburger, of all lurkers, if hamburger is indeed scum?

Also, camn says she hates all lurkers, which I defiantly agree with. But this thought just occurred to me: wouldn't it be very easy for a scum to say "oh, let's lynch a lurker because it's a relatively easy kill and we don't need to provide too much evidence for it?". I've seen in other games on a different site that people who are vehemently anti-lurker sometimes show up as scum. I wouldn't say it's a scum tell exactly, since you really do need to pressure lurkers or scum can just skate by till the end, but... it's really making me question camn. It would be hypocritical to not hold myself to the same standard though. Since I want lurkers gone too I can't really argue with her.

Raivann... is town, I'm almost positive. But of course, you can never be positive in mafia. If we lynch cojin today, and he is scum, raivann definitely needs another look at.

Amished and Azhrei: probably town. I really agreed with their arguments about camn, Azhrei especially seems to be town. Amished is a little more questionable, he may be going after Raivann and Camn for being easy targets because of their aggressiveness.

So yeah. At this point I'm willing to vote for Cojin, camn, hamburger, or Josh. I feel like there's a large chance one of those four at least is scum. Cojin's lynch would be to get more information about Raivann, as well.

[arelian]

Oh, and I'm going to do this for now, since it doesn't make too much sense staying on Hamburger if he's getting replaced and the fact that camn, who I suspect, is also voting for him.

Unvote

I'm really torn at where to place this vote, but I have to go with the person with the most suspicion against them.

Vote: Camn

[Amished]

No-lynch is a bad idea with or without a cop. There is *ONLY ONE* situation where a no-lynch is a good idea, and that's in a 4 person, 1 scum left endgame. 3 townies left and 1 scum means that if you mislynch, it'll turn out to be the end of the game (lynch, 2 townies, 1 scum, NK means 1-1, and scum wins by default) and a no-lynch would allow scum to put up a NK, then 2 townies and 1 scum raising the *random* chances of hitting scum from 25% to 33%. Otherwise *never* no-lynch if you can avoid it.

Sucks for you that Ham is being replaced as you had some good reasoning posted about him being town or scum; and I like where you were trying to go with that. But good for the town that he's getting replaced instead of lynched.

Camn I'm getting a decent read on, and that mostly just comes with seeing many people throughout games and adjusting to them. It is a more pro-town read if anyone cares.

Arelian, I'm more confident now than ever that you're town, and you'll be a good player in the future while you continue to develop. 211 is easily your best post so far.

I'm clearly missing something with Raiv's defense, and if Camn/arelian are scum and misleading me (which they'd have no reason to do) then Raiv is still town.

Unvote

I'm looking forward to how the replacements act, and what happens with Josh. He was in a game as town that I later replaced into and he was overall much more active, but I don't have a scum meta on him.

I have a ball-game tonight, but I should be able to get a reread on him as there's not much to do there and post my thoughts afterwards. Call it 5 hours from now or so I should be back around.

[camn]

I'm suspicious of camn for many reasons, but she is so hard to read that I wouldn't be surprised if she was scum or town. She plays very aggressively, and uses her vote to put pressure on people. She seems to have the ability to explain her actions perfectly- something that I think is scummy of her one moment I'm completely turning around on the next. If she is scum, she is a powerful enemy. I also think if she was scum she would not reveal herself so easily.

This is an INCREDIBLY accurate assessment. Especially the last line

Hamburger has not responded to the pressure put onto him by camn and my votes. If camn is scum, though, why would she target hamburger, of all lurkers, if hamburger is indeed scum?

IF I were scum, I would do that because It would clear me for the rest of the game. But I'm not.

Also, camn says she hates all lurkers, which I defiantly agree with. But this thought just occurred to me: wouldn't it be very easy for a scum to say "oh, let's lynch a lurker because it's a relatively easy kill and we don't need to provide too much evidence for it?".

Again, if I were scum, I would totally do that. But I have longstanding meta of hating lurkers regardless of alignment... so it is a null-tell in this case.

All in all, I am not afraid of a camn-lynch.
I am pretty convinced that, aside from doc-scum WIFOM, I will die tonight. So if we MUST mislynch, I am a good option.

Of course, a scumlynch would be nice. . . but I don't know who the scum are yet.
A lurkerlynch would make tomorrow a better game.. . regardless of if we hit scum or not.

[Amished]

Well, did a reread of all 6 of Josh's posts. Without any explanation of his vote ("raised red flags for me" is not an explanation) or backing of his scumlist I would not have a problem voting for Josh at all. Hopefully he can come back and do something productive. If it comes to it, I wouldn't be against lynching him instead of having the mod find a replacement this short til deadline anymore as after this it's getting harder to really come up with a coherent argument for just about anybody.

I'm hoping that Ham's replacement comes in and contributes which is why I'm not looking at them as much for a lurkery lynch.

[Amished]

EBWOP: I meant to address Camn's post too, specifically the 2nd paragraph. It wouldn't clear you for the rest of the game, maybe for a day, but to pick out a scum by lynching a lurker would not in any way signal that you're super obvious town. You would and should know that.

I also want to point out that I hate your last two paragraphs, Camn, for a couple of reasons.

[Scien]

Hello, I am Hamburger's replacement. I frankly have not started catching up on this thread, and have no idea if I am under suspicion or not. I will catch up on the game as soon as possible and make my opinion known to all, as well as asking any questions that I think are necessary.

Please give me at least a day to catch up, I will post within 24 hours what I have read up to as well as what my opinions are up to that point.

I look forward to playing with you guys.

[camn]

UNVOTE

[Raivann]

Welcome Scien.

[Azhrei]

Please Note, I have limited access over the next few days due to exams

[Azhrei]

Bold fail^

Please Note, I have limited access over the next few days due to exams

[camn]

Well, did a reread of all 6 of Josh's posts. Without any explanation of his vote ("raised red flags for me" is not an explanation) or backing of his scumlist I would not have a problem voting for Josh at all.

Me niether.

VOTE: JOSH LYMAN

[Scien]

I'm going to go ahead and dump out my thoughts so far on the first 4 pages. Keep in mind, some of this might have been addressed afterward, and I have not fully caught up yet.

My thoughts on page 1 -

Hamburger's (mine I guess) random vote. I hate random roll votes with a passion. They are a tool for scum to hide behind. I can think of only one reason for a townie to use it, as I have seen it used this way in one of my past games. That reason is to intentionally look scummy in order to draw out the real scum. A risky manuver at best. That being said, now that I am in Hamburger's shoes and have inside information about his alignment, I have honestly no idea what the motives were behind this random vote. Apparently he is protown, however he doesn't seem to have been using the random vote as a scum hunting tool. I don't know what Hamburger was thinking.

Raivann's vote on a Hamburger(me) and Amished team. While I think I would have done the same thing in his shoes (minus the claim that Amished is scum as well) I find it odd that he doesn't explain this as he votes. He votes initially, then over the next 3 posts slowly explains his reasoning. Claiming the random roll is scummy (agree), and that Amished is most likely on a scum team with me the random voter (disagree), and the random roll sounded forced. I've already said why I agree that a random roll is a scum tell, but I don't agree that you can use the claimed result as a clue that that target is scum as well. Seems too far fetched. Yes it is possible for scum to use the random vote to bus. But I don't think the desire would be high enough yet to use such a risky manuver. Also, all RVS votes sound forced. They are all forced, there is no information to go off of yet.

How I feel about players on page 1?

Raivann - I know it is going to sound pretty petty, and maybe a bit OMGUSish, but I am getting negative vibes from him. Here are some reasons why: Someone mentioned that decisivness was protown. I disagree in this case. If he gets very vocal, and only allows for one person to be scrutinized by others (which he seemed to be doing at this point), then its a form of limiting discussion, not promoting it. Also, I believe that he is trying to force his towniness a bit. Here's an example:

I appear overly townie because i am obvtown and I'm looking to string up some scum. Deadline will approach quickly, and I'm getting this game started. I'll give you townie points for post though. Do u think me scum Azhrei? Why not wait for Hamburger to respond before you did?

Everything in that post seems engineered to appear pro-town from his shoes, while in fact all are scum tells to me.
"I appear overly townie" - it was said that you appear to be trying, not that you are.
"because i am obvtown" - no you aren't, not this early.
"Deadline will approach quickly", not really, we had tons of time at this point, and it seems like you trying to use the deadline to scare people into complacency.
"I'll give you townie points for post though." - Uh, sounds like, if I say you are town, will you leave me alone?
"Do u think me scum Azhrei?" - Asking about your scumminess in other people's eyes is scummy in itself. Appears to be a 'Did what I do look scummy? If you think so I will stop.'
"Why not wait for Hamburger to respond before you did ?" - Uh, so you want people to not continue asking questions while we wait for you to get answers? That sounds a bit like desiring limited discussion.

Now all in all, its too early to make up my mind on you, but your play so far is giving you negative town points.

All in all most of the other stuff on page 1 was just RVS stuff. Although some peoples methods of questioning seemed to be townish to me. Namely Camn, Azhrei, and Amished in that order. With Amished being a bit slight at this point.

Page 2 thoughts -

Raivann started examining other people. That's good, and I guess a bit protown. However it might be just because he has gotten a bit of flac over his play on page1.

SustainRelease votes for votings sake, and that is a bit disconcerting.

Cojin comes in and says they have no views on anyone at this point and I find that strange. It seems that you would at least start forming some opinions on people's play at this stage, and could mention something. You could be hiding behind this so you don't have to contribute and possibly incriminate yourself. Eh, we'll see how your play is later.

Amished states a few things about Raivann that I agree with. Mainly the looking townie claims, the strangeness of Raivann's initial posts.

Raivann votes Cojin for the inactiveness (agree), claims that people should be voting Hamburger instead of random voting him at this stage. Eh... I don't necessarily think that we were out of RVS yet though. I don't agree with his claim that Amished is overreacting, given that if I was hear I would have been saying the same things to him. Also the additional FoS on Amished is strange at this point. Didn't you claim that he was on the scum team earlier? Didn't that count as a FoS?

People on Page2 -

Eh, Raivann stepped up his play a bit, but was still behaving strangely in other areas I believe. So eh, I guess he moves a bit more neutral, however he is still my chief suspect at this point.

Camn was a bit quieter on this page, and Amish and Azh a bit more active. I think that Amish and Azh moved more townish in my mind on page 2. Camn stayed where she was. Everyone else is still neutral in my mind.

Thoughts on Page 3-

If SustainRelease flips scum Amished will too

Eh really? There seems to be a lot of that going on in this game, and it seems WAY too early to be building connections like that. Thats something that I think needs to be done when you have much more supporting evidence. Even given that, I think it is strange to be so certain of anything at this point, and you do make it sound like you are certain.

Do I really think I nailed the scumteam on 2nd post of the game and that I'm gonna win a Scummy? No, not really

Eh? You seemed pretty sure of yourself earlier. I don't think that was acting. Looks more like backtracking when you didn't get your wagon.

If I've been overly aggressive, it has been in searching for scum and has not been anti-town.

Not necessarilly. As I have said before, your play has some subtle qualities that limit discussion.

Page 4 thoughts -

I think that there are many questions out here, and me commenting on it before reading answers would not serve any purpose. Give me a bit to catch up on the next few pages.

More to come when I get home. (Sorry that this is mostly observation at this point. I want to save questions until I am fully caught up)

[Scien]

Page 5 thoughts -

There is contention around Raivann's avoidance of a 'lame' question. I hold with the people who find it odd. Seems to me that it is still possible to answer a 'lame' question. I think that this is the most important thing going on in this page. Although people are still giving their opinions. I'm going to come back when I post my questions to all.

Page 6 thoughts -

More carry over from the last page. Camn votes Ray for pressure
There is a case out on him now, and he is going to respond, I will like to see that, maybe I am focusing too much on his play. If so him responding to that case will help me out of that rut.
Actually towards the end of this page it seems that people responding to the various cases/requests and good interplay is happening. Kidos to the play of everyone involved here.

Page 7 thoughts -

Woah. Nice post from Arelian right at the top of this page.

Page 8 thoughts -

Woah. It gets long here. Thats actually a good thing for the town as a whole, a bad thing for me trying to catch up since we are getting closeish to a deadline.
Azhrei and Josh start up against Camn. I think that lynching an inactive over people that we do have some info on is dangerous at best. However even if I don't agree with some of the plays that Camn has been making, I haven't been getting scummy vibes from her.
Amished comes in. I don't agree that aggression in itself is a bad tactic from a townie. I think you are saying that?
I do agree with the sentiment from Camn at the bottom of the page about a scum hopping on a wagon. It would be foolish not to if the partner is going to bite it. Thats just logical.