Sorry for the wait, it took me longer than I thought.
So I mindnumbingly PBP analyzed pages 1-6, then I realized that my mind was made up because I'd re-read pages 9-12 several times before being replaced in.
The following takes up 5 pages and then some in MS word, so be prepared. (Or just scroll down to the bottom where I'll be posting a wrap-up of who I think is scum, who I'll vote for at deadline, and a simpler explanation than reading all these quotes)
RVS - Lasted through post 7...
Post 7
camn wrote:wagon ho!
Analysis - First wagon of game. Could be just RVS, but I have a small amount of suspicion.
Post 8
Ravian wrote:Post reads forced and seems like distancing. How do you respond, Hamburger?
Analysis – This was in response to post 3 (ham's random.org post) You ended RVS and started trying to force ppl to think you were town .
Post 10
Raviann wrote:obvtown
and
Raviann wrote:dead line will approach quickly.
Analysis - Not too important, but no one is obvtown unless cleared by cop or dead. Also, the deadline was three weeks away and you were trying to get the day over with? That's not a very townie thing to do.
Post 13
arelian wrote:If he was scum, I think Hamburger would be taking a huge risk voting for his partner on his very first post.
and
arelian wrote:Raivann's early accusations don't seem too scummy either, I think indecisiveness is a sign of scum in most cases and Raivann sure isn't being indecisive. And I've got to give him props for starting off the discussion almost right away.
Analysis - First part is true, and you are defending, imo, a random vote. Second part, though, you're defending Rai, who attacked someone on page 1 during RVS. Defending an attacker made me think you might both be a scumteam, but since it's page one, I let it slide unless I found better evidence.
Post 17 - Referring to post 13
Raviann wrote:townie post
Analysis - This does not help me think of you and he as "not scumteam."
Post 24
camn wrote:I do it all the time. It is the BEST time to buss your partner, because no one thinks it is off if you suddenly give up on the case, saying "it was totally a random-number" vote!
Analysis - This post told me that you have played as a mafia member before, and also increased my suspicion of you.
Post 29
Cojin wrote:Not at this moment no.
Analysis - This did not help you at all. When asked any question, a satisfactory answer is rarely a single line. With new information, I know you're playing through a cell phone, mostly, but you still have to answer with more than a line for us not to accuse you of being scum.
Post 30
Amished wrote:Back to 6, to justify any vote with something unrelated to the game is outrageous, and a mild scumtell in my eyes. Raivann's continued questioning of hamburger is quite honestly a bunch of BS.
Analysis - Two problems. 1) Post number six says nothing about something unrelated to the game. It's simply Raviann claiming "I'm gonna win a Scummy." 2) At post 30, the only question Raviann had asked of hamburger was "How do you plea to these charges, Hamburger?" This is not "continued questioning" and to have two factual errors when attempting to show that someone is being scummy is scummy in itself.
Post 31
Raviann wrote:You do know our mayor is dead, right?!
Analysis - By following this with a vote for Cojin, you are overreacting. Should he have said more? Yes. Even with one page, Cojin still had enough to lay out a basic "read" on people. However, you were acting like he had done this during day 2 or something. Scummy, imo.
Post 32
Raviann wrote:If i was scum i would be actively lurking , kinda like what Cojin is doing.
Analysis - WIFOM. I love WIFOM, it's such a fun thing to try and analyze. By directly saying this (after you ended the RVS) it makes me suspicious of you, rather than Cojin.
Post 33
Raviann wrote:Arelian seems most town to me. The more I reread your(Amished) post ,the more it reeks of scum. FoS: Amished
Analysis - Going from my analysis of Post 13, the claim that Arelian seemed most town continues my thoughts that you and him are scumbuddies. Though I did find it curious why you didn't switch your vote to Amished. After all, hamburger was during the RVS, and you had very little to go on for him, but Amished's post "reek"ed of scum. Not switching your vote to someone that reeked of scum seems contradictory, and therefore, scummy.
Post 34
arelian wrote:Raivann's support for me being town is a little unsettling, mainly because I don't feel like I've made a strong enough case for myself yet. Does he know more than he's letting on?
At the same time, I just don't think he's scum. He's been spearheading the assault on people who show even mild scum tells, and he hasn't been afraid to defend himself. He just seems too active- high profile.
Analysis - I'll be honest, this doesn't make my scumteam idea go away or improve it. You both distance yourself from him and defend him at the same time... Oh, your second part has an error though, he's only spearheaded two assaults (hardly praiseworthy) on mild scum tells, when there have been others (he's worked on ham's arguable one, and Amished's, both you and he have had one, as well as a couple of lurkers)
Post 48 (in response to camn questioning SR's OMGUS vote)
Amished wrote:unconvoluted version: First game for a player: OMGUS as a townie makes slightly more sense than OMGUS as scum. Lack of actual reasoning is disturbing, but we have time to make them contribute.
Analysis - While explaining this makes sense, the fact that you know about it means that you could be scumbuddies with SR and planned for this to happen. It is low probability, but I'd rather have it on the table and it be wrong than it not be on the table and be true.
(nothing on page 3 really caught me as scummy or overly townie)
Post 77
Raivann wrote:Well at least the first part is true, I do believe I am unbelievably townie.
Analysis - While I think this was a bad question (Why do you think you're so damn townie?"), it at least needs an answer or a good reason why the question is horrible and can't be answered.
Post 80
Cojin wrote:Claiming on an L-2 seems kind of fishy to me, and i belive he seems almost to talkitive to be scum, I am suspicious of him, but not enought to risk it much more, i dont think he needs to have the opportunity to be placed at L-1 so Unvote
Analysis - You know what else is fishy? Unvoting at L-2 with very little change in your convictions.
Post 81
arelian wrote:I agree. Scum of course want to make it look like they believe they are town, but the way Raivann is doing it is different. I think he believes that way he has been acting is indicative of town because he knows for a fact he is town. While it may not be obvious to the rest of us, he believes that it should be- in other words, he has nothing to hide. I don't want to place so much trust in him though on the off chance that this is all an act... but really, I do trust him a lot.
Analysis - This is defending... again. But you're doing it too much for me to consider you two a scumteam above 40%. If I had chosen to vote for you before this post, I likely would have unvoted and used FoS.
Post 88
Raivann wrote:I think scum Cojin would stay on my wagon longer, but perhaps that's what he wants me to think.
and
Raivann wrote:Oh, and just in case anybody missed Azhrei's question that I didn't answer, here it is again.
Analysis - Hooray for WIFOM thinking! May the brain destroying competitions begin! The second quote is horrid though. You still didn't answer the question or explain in civil terms what was wrong with it.
Post 89
Azhrei wrote:No, I don't think he is scum, I merely think that his attitude is oh so slightly scummy.
and
Azhrei wrote:the loss of the RVS is a good thing for the town, ergo, lamenting its loss is anti-town.
Analysis - Finally found something slightly scummy from you! The first quote from 89 is the answer to camn's question "Do you think [Raivann] is scum?" This is ever so slightly scummy, because when you vote for someone, the consensus is that you have found them to be scum until someone says something that makes you think they are the scum. I hope that make sense. The second quote makes me sad, though. I believe that RVS provides a chance for familiarity to develop before we go at each other's throats. While you are correct that it is good to move on, the RVS dying in the first page (little to no familiarity) is a bad thing.
Post 100
Raviann wrote:How exactly is not answering this lame question scummy?
Analysis - Well, if you don't answer questions, the town doesn't have as much information, which is scummy. In light of the question itself, though, you need to explain why the person asking it would be scummy or why the question is unfair in CIVIL terms.
Post 101
Azhrei wrote:I know I am a member of the town, but that doesn't exempt me from partaking in scummy actions
Analysis - Since you brought it up, would someone do me a favor and highlight some of Az's scummy actions for me? I've looked but I can't seem to find anything too suspicious. This is the only actual scummy post from you I've seen so far (if my brain is processing properly), and it makes me suspicious.
Post 106
Amished wrote:@Cojin: Why did you feel that L-2 was so dangerous? At that point, the only way Raiv could be hammered is either by a stupid townie quicklynching (bad) or by two scum coming on and quicklynching (which would out them rather obviously). What worries me about your unvote, though, is that you took that as a claim, and unvoted, possibly in the hopes of driving up another town player to force to claim so that you can find a power role.
Analysis - This does not seem scummy to me. I think it's an excellent town move, though it doesn't clear you from my suspicion at all.
Post 107
Cojin wrote:I just think its to early to have him placed where the chance of him being quicklynched can happen. My unvote is to a dwindling suspicion on him aswell, although still very much there.
Analysis - While I believe Cojin was attempting to be pro-town here, the first part of his post prevents me from believing it was a townie post. That fact that quicklynching was mentioned on the first day at L-2 just seems odd... no sane mafia members would attempt a quicklynch on the first day at L-2, that's just ridiculous.
Post 108
arelian wrote:And for what you're saying about Cojin's L-2 unvote, I agree. I got the feeling from it that he was trying to appear more town by not rushing the lynch and waiting for the Raivann vote to gather more steam.
Analysis - The only problem I see with your post is that Cojin couldn't just jump back on this wagon. If he waited for the Raivann vote to gather more steam, then voted Raivann again, I think we'd all lynch Cojin instead of Rai. (so this isn't really a pro/anti-town critique, it's more of a logic critique)
Post 114
arelian wrote:Like, I don't think Raivann is scum because he is acting in such a way that would potentially put him at risk to be lynched. Scum wouldn't do that.
Analysis - This is WIFOM, and I'm more inclined, right now at least, to believe it's WIFOM, rather than WIFOMIFOY, so he's acting very pro-town, but due to early posts I think he's scum.
Post 118
Raivann wrote:Yes, I now believe you and Az are scum.
Analysis – See, I've only found a single reason to think Az is scum. I might not be looking hard enough, but get me proof from before post 118 to support this statement (or don't, but I still don't think Az is scum)
Post 123 – Raivann – Not quoting due to length
Analysis – Don’t… ever… do… this… again. I understood that you were annoyed with the question, but a better way to express your dislike is to give several good reasons why you won’t answer the question. Phrase your answer so it comes across as non-confrontational. It’s much easier than coming up with a fake story that only annoys us as much as the question annoys you.
Post 137 – Amished – too long to quote
Analysis – Nice chain of events. You set up a pretty good connection here, and it seemed to be the same set up I just read in another game. Also, while I'm not above 60% convinced Cojin is mafia, that convenient string of events is just too coincidental for me to see it as purely coincidental...
Post 149
Raivann wrote:First of all Amished is obvscum now.
Analysis - Please see part one of post ten for Analysis, but replace "town" with "scum." Doing this doesn't help you, and makes you seem more scummy...
------------
That ends my individual post analysis. After reading the other pages without post-by-post analysis, I think I'm ready to give my opinions.
[Short Version]
My top 3 votes (in no particular order)
Raviann, Amished, and Cojin
Ravian - While you seem to have become more of a town player during the afternoon of day 1, I'm still remembering all the stuff that happened in the morning that made me very sure you were scum.
Amished - Your impressive case against Raviann/Cojin was great because of a game I watched where a lurker and a really active player were the maf (and it seemed coincidental), but I still have doubts that you're town. (Oh, and I think the idea of you bussing Ravian is plausible)
Cojin - Lurking is bad, even with an excuse. It costs the village discussion, and lurking is considered a scumtell. It's also going to cause me to hammer tomorrow, unless something changes before deadline.
---
For everyone else:
I'm still suspicious of camn and arelien, but not enough for a lynching today. (only a slight scum feel)
camn, you want things too move a little quickly for my taste, which is what initially caused me to be suspicious of Ravian. I'll obviously be analyzing very closely tomorrow.
arelien, I think you might still be scum, but it's nowhere near as strong as pages 2-3. Your posts have gotten more townie, and I'll have to look closely to see if I'm making a mistake.
Scien, from what I gathered, you think very logically, and I look forward to seeing what you come up with tomorrow. I do have a null read on you though.
Azhrei, I have a scary null read on you. I seem to follow everything you've said, but I just can't shake the idea that I might just be being fooled. Still, you're my least-scummy, so we'll see.
ASH, I haven't really looked too deeply into your posts, though you seem to be doing exactly what I'm doing, just focusing on one person at a time... either way, I obviously don't have a feel on you yet. We'll see about tomorrow.
-------------
So if you didn't read it in the short version, I'll hammer Cojin tomorrow before the deadline, to give him a final chance to say anything. If someone else wants to hammer, go ahead, but I'd like to give him as much time as possible.
I will be offline in about 30 minutes, so any questions to me needing to be answered before 6 hours prior to deadline need to be asked in that period.
There are 10 people in the world: Those who understand trinary, those who don't, and those who thought this would be the same old binary line...
but I had neglected to complete an assignment.