Mini 749 - Antarctic Mafia [Game Over]

[The Replacement]

Hello. I can't start reading immediately, but plan to get through all the reading within a day or two.

[The Replacement]

Sorry this is taking a bit longer than expected. This week has been hell.

Have you checked the children?

The Replacement - 1 (DraketheFake)
tubby216 - 3 (Light-kun, Netlava, TheReplacement)
Netlava - 2 (HowardRoark, tubby216)

Not Voting - 1 (JereIC)


7 alive, 4 to lynch

-Mod

(Vote Count accurate as of Post 887)

[The Replacement]

I have been working on my final project for university (finished with

everything

in two days!!!!)... so I've only managed to do a lot of skimming and quickreading through the majority of this game. However, I think there is an obvious lynch today.

Vote: tubby216

The only non-vanilla so far to be mod-revealed was not an Adelie Penguin. The other power roles claimed, have also not claimed as Adelie Penguins. The claim reeks.

I am against the vigilante killing anyone tonight. If you target someone and that person is town, then we lose.

I need to do a closer read of both day two and day three and should be back sometime tomorrow with a post on my thoughts

[The Replacement]

Unfortunately, having him not kill last night screwed up the math, and we've got basically no advantage to having him kill tonight.

I disagree with this, as if he shot yesterday, and he shot a townie, there might not have even been a today. Having him not kill last night ensured that we'd still be playing today.

Beginning of day two had 9 players.
The town mislynched, bringing it to 8 players.
Scum are going to kill someone, that puts it to 7 players (which is where we are).
If Light-kun shot town, that'd put it to 6 players. If there are three scum, then town loses. If there are two scum, we are still at mislynch and lose.

Also being at an odd number, as opposed to an even number, is beneficial to the town. The math is actually better because he didn't shoot in my opinion. Having an even number means that the town needs a larger percentage of the remaining players to make he majority and a lynch (4/7 = 57%; 4/6 = 67%). An even number makes it more likely that scum will have to be on any wagon. Also having an odd number helps in finding scum in lynch or lose situations (max3/7 = 43%; max2/6 = 33%) as mislynching in either situation loses the game, but it is less likely for the scum to be able to hide if there is an odd number of remainig players when compared to an even number.

[The Replacement]

Now that DtF is confirmed town, I'm a bit confused why the Replacement wasn't hammered. This is my biggest question mark against him, but I think it's quite possible that the scum weren't well-coordinated enough to hammer.

I don't recall ever being in a position to have been hammered.

[The Replacement]

HowardRoark and JereIC are my two suspects, with Howard as my top suspect.

I disagree with Jere that Howard was trying incredibly hard to support tubby's case as a re-read really shows him trying to push the lynch on Netlava more than anything else. The hammer looked really bad to me though due to the fact that he had been so heavily scrutinizing Netlava up until that point.

Howard, not much happened between your last two posts of the day, what sold you on the scum fail in your hammer that you weren't convinced of in your prior post?

[The Replacement]

Um... yes you were. Dtf's town vote + 3 scum = hammer. Which now that I think of it, is pretty suspicious.

One vote, when four are needed, is a little farfetched in being surprised at no hammer when there is no way that three scum would be able to coordinate and make sure they could each get their vote on before drawing a bunch of attention to themselves and before Drake would be able to unvote. If it's L-1, that's entirely different.

[The Replacement]

That's a much better point, especially considering that both you and tubby216 were both at L-2 at the same time. I don't think it's likely that the two of you can be town together.

[The Replacement]

Hm...interesting. No defense Replacement?

Defense from what? If you are talking about Post 912 there aren't any points to defend against.

[The Replacement]

I don't like that you are looking for something to match your already stated suspicions, building the case after you've determined a verdict.

[The Replacement]

...and I'll have to wait for the night-kill tonight to figure out who the 3rd scum is.

You have to be pretty sure of yourself that you'll still be alive tomorrow if you're relying on that helping you find the third scum. I also don't like the premise of looking at night kills as a way to analyze or deduce who is scum. I don't think doing so is very reliable.

[The Replacement]

Sorry, I was away for a few days unexpectedly. I'll catch up on what I missed and make a more informative post sometime later today.

[The Replacement]

Vote: JereIC

[The Replacement]

I don't think you and Howard are likely to be scumbuddies. I also think the speculation about Light being a possible one-hit extra kill mafia to pretty wild speculation on Jere's part and then going back on that. Like trying to paint him as a suspect, but then backing out of it when he realized it probably wouldn't work. I see no reason to throw out far-fetched theories.

So of the possible scum pairings I find Jere/Howard to be most likely followed a bit further by Jere/Net and trailing in last is Net/Howard followed by any pairing with Light.

[The Replacement]

I was waiting for The Replacement to show so he could vote and we could finish it off. (Thanks for finally coming and noticing that I was online . . . waiting!)

Yeah, I got pulled away to a press conference unexpectedly. When I came back and saw your name under the users browsing this forum I voted figuring you'd be around and check before Light would come back. It worked out in the end though... for the seals.

It was nowhere near a clean victory for us (I'll take a chunk of responsibility for that) and was well played by the town!!

When I replaced in I was thinking to myself that the town was in a much better position to pull out the win than it first appeared.