Newbie 807 - Game Over

[CancerBottle]

Um, OMGUS

Vote: ChannelDelibird

.

[CancerBottle]

Are you suggesting that I would deliberately do something that might be suspicious as town in the past so that I could do it again as scum and be able to give evidence that it's something I do as town?

This is a bit of a reach, don't you think? I mean, I don't see Kard suggesting that you have deliberately played scummy as town in a previous game, only to be able to cite that playstyle in other games.

[CancerBottle]

Are you suggesting that I would deliberately do something that might be suspicious as town in the past so that I could do it again as scum and be able to give evidence that it's something I do as town?

This is a bit of a reach, don't you think? I mean, I don't see Kard suggesting that you have deliberately played scummy as town in a previous game, only to be able to cite that playstyle in other games.

Indeed, besides it's possible that he is a scum, but he did not deliberately play that way in previous games, so he's using this to his advantage. Or maybe I'm looking to much into this; either way, I'm sure I'm wrong somehow.

Well, we all have games in which we are terrible Townies. But I don't use those games to excuse scummy behavior.

In any event, metas have very limited use for scumhunting in my opinion.

[CancerBottle]

What's EBWOP? I'm learning quite a bit about play here from the wiki, but never came across that one before.

Edit By Way Of Post

See, we're not allowed to edit our posts, so if you want to fix something, just make the correction in another post.

[CancerBottle]

I'm confused and totaly new to this so...
I vote ChannelDelibird

Any reason in particular?

[CancerBottle]

Yup, nice to meet all of you. Mafia is always better with new people.

I did hear about his death. My dad is much more phased by it than I am. But let's try to keep the chatter game-related.

[CancerBottle]

What's this "meta" thing you guys are referring to? *confused*

I have to agree with FoShizzle though in that people's

playstyles do change over time, as they improve in the game

. (not like it matters in this game so much, since most of us are new).

I'll use this post to respond to FoShizzle. Note the bold.

That's exactly it. Part of improving one's play is not displaying a drastic difference in playstyles when playing town or scum. So, when examining a player's early games, you might distinguish differences between that player's behavior as scum and behavior as town. However, I've found that most players begin to adopt a "standardized" playstyle for the game, used when scum and town. So, while I agree metas

can

be developed on players, they aren't really that practical to implement, unless you are good at discerning the ultra fine nuances of a person's playstyle. And as I am unable to do this, and feel most people can't either, I don't believe metas are very effective for scumhunting.

[CancerBottle]

This is a bit of a reach, don't you think? I mean, I don't see Kard suggesting that you have deliberately played scummy as town in a previous game, only to be able to cite that playstyle in other games.

You don't see him doing that? A couple of posts before the above quote, he responded to me asking him if he was suggesting that, and he said:

Really? You put the meta tactic out there first. Which, for reasons already stated in this thread, is dubious. Yet, you frame Kard's suspicions with this dubious tactic, thus weakening his suspicions.

And again, Kard's response was not a conformation he felt you were using the meta tactic.

[CancerBottle]

I vote ChannelDelibird.

[sarcasm]Be wary of those who lynch and leave.[/sarcasm]

Voting and departing looks suspicious. What exactly inspired your vote?

[CancerBottle]

The problem I have with your interpretations is they undermine Kard's suspicions by insinuating his reasoning is silly and unreasonable, which it isn't. If you are scum, then this would provide you a base on which to rally a lynch on him later in the game.

I'm not suggesting you're doing things you'd normally do as town, I'm suggesting you're trying to attribute a line of thought that is scummy to another player, thus making that player look scummy.

And attributing scummy reasoning to another player, especially when it isn't there, is scummy. If that makes any sense.

[CancerBottle]

*snip*

This point might be stronger if I was voting for Kard right now, but I'm not. My motivation for discussing this in the first place was a) to defend myself against a FoS and b) to defend my integrity as a player my making it clear I wouldn't intentionally play any less than my best game in past games in order to gain an advantage now.

True, you're not voting for him now, but--from my perspective--you've planted a seed that you could build on later. I understand your motivations and I'm not suspicious of you because you're trying to defend yourself. I'm suspicious of you because of the argument you used to do so.

You say you don't think Kard's reasoning is unreasonable,

why

? I just made a post about why I felt, whether or not I misinterpreted his post, the FoS was unfair. Is my logic flawed?

The argument he made is that you might use past games in which you've played, good performance or not, to justify scummy actions. I've seen experienced players on this forum cite past games to justify scummy behavior, as I've done it myself. I don't think you or anyone else here have any qualms about making that move.

Then you implied, he meant you were intentionally throwing games in order to bamboozle the newbies of Newbie 807....

[CancerBottle]

EBWOP: This point might be stronger if I was voting for Kard right now, but I'm not. My motivation for discussing this in the first place was a) to defend myself against a FoS and b) to defend my integrity as a player my making it clear I wouldn't intentionally play any less than my best game in past games in order to gain an advantage now...

rather than trying to put suspicion on Kard.

I just think it was a reach to suggest that. I don't think anyone here would actually accuse you of intentionally playing poorly in one game to gain a tenuous advantage in another.

Then again, because it's so absurd, that might be why my thinking is faulty.

But, I would like to hear what other players have to say on the issue.

[CancerBottle]

Well, before we do, I'd like to ask Kichirou, why he put CBD at L-2?

Basically, Kich, could you explain your vote?

[CancerBottle]

TBH, I think it's either fishy or just a coincidence. I watching closely, but I would never put much into these first round discussions. Everyone's jumpy to point the finger, so I just go with my gut.

Good point.

What is your gut telling you, if you don't mind sharing?

[CancerBottle]

Well, before we do, I'd like to ask Kichirou, why he put CBD at L-2?

Basically, Kich, could you explain your vote?

It was random lol

Ah.

...

Then what about you, bgg1996? Why did you vote for CBD?

[CancerBottle]

What is your gut telling you, if you don't mind sharing?

I don't have any reason behind it, but the one that is the most talkative at first usually is antsy, so I just decided to go with what I thought at the time.

Au contraire! I've found that it's the most quiet players who are the antsy. Quiet players are trying to avoid revealing something condemning through their posts.

But you see how shaky rubrics like this are? Any kind of "rule" you have for yourself like, "quiet players are mafia," "talkative players are mafia," can be contradicted.

...

@ Bgg1996: what about CBD was suspicious?

@ Crazypianist: I can't wait to read your thoughts.

[CancerBottle]

CancerBottle: If you're so concerned about ChannelDelibird being at L-2, then revoke your vote. The other 2 will surely fall as they had no reasons. You should give a reason for keeping your vote. Originally it was (pretty much) random. Additionally, I don't feel like CDB's posts have put any suspicion on Kard. CDB isn't attacking Kard, he's defending himself against Kard's FoS. Since someone accused me for not voting originally, I'll cast a vote now. Vote: CancerBottle

Yay activity!

I kept my vote on him because one, I OMGUSed him. And later on, I jumped on his suspicions on Kard. Basically, I think he's rather scummy.

However, seeing as Kich and Bgg jumped on the wagon too, and my confidence that CBD is scum is evaporating. I wondered who else might join, hence I kept my vote.

[CancerBottle]

Ugh.

Alright well, since I think I've milked the CBD lynch dry, I'd like to hear more from Bgg1996 and Kichirou.

Unvote: CBD

Vote: Bgg1996

because he was the third player to join the CBD lynch. And he has not explained why he thought CBD was suspicious.

...

Question: is our deadline for Day 1 the July 16 date? Or is that the deadline for the game?

[CancerBottle]

CancerBottle, if you found CDB scummy, how come your suspicion of him is suddenly “evaporating” so quickly?

My suspicion of CBD is evaporating because two other players added their votes to the wagon. I don't like the way he interpreted Kard's suspicions.

However, the fact that two players added their votes to him without explanation worries me. That's the great thing about voting, it allows you to put pressure on a player, while revealing things about other players who add their votes.

Well, Kichirou has claimed his vote was random, while Bgg1996 states he voted for CBD because he was "suspicious." Now, I started to wonder if I might have been wrong about CBD. However, I kept my vote pinned because I wanted to see if someone else would dare to put him at L-1. This might force a claim out of CBD--who am and was still leery of-- while opening up an opportunity to grill his fourth voter. I check the thread every day, so I figured if another player were to add his vote to CBD, I would retract mine and inquire to the motivations of the the fourth voter.

[CancerBottle]

CancerBottle, is your vote change being influenced by the votes from pianist and fandango?

Well, their votes forced me to explain my actions. Now that I don't have the opportunity to expose any more quick lynchers, I might as well keep my suspicion of CBD public and grill his third voter: Bgg1996.

So yes, my vote chance is a direct result of their votes.

[CancerBottle]

CancerBottle, is your vote change being influenced by the votes from pianist and fandango?

Well, their votes forced me to explain my actions. Now that I don't have the opportunity to expose any more quick lynchers, I might as well keep my suspicion of CBD public and grill his third voter: Bgg1996.

So yes, my vote chance is a direct result of their votes.

I wish I understood that...

I wish you would post more...

But to clarify, I kept my vote on CBD because you and Bgg1996 put him at L-2. You explained your vote as random. Bgg1996 says CBD was "suspicious." I wanted to see if anyone else would try and place CBD at L-1.

However, since I've had to explain my actions, I want Bgg1996 to elaborate on why he thinks CBD was suspicious.

[CancerBottle]

It's CDB, CancerBottle, not CBD. Sorry for the pedantry.

Oh. Sorry.

I'm a little distressed that CB is talking enthusiastically about the possibility of someone 'forcing' me to claim, considering that there's very little, if any, evidence against me that I can see. The fact that he then moved his vote to Bgg does not sit well with me either - though I agree that it would be good to hear an elaboration from Bgg I don't like that CB is playing both sides of my wagon.

I don't know if I'm "enthusiastically" pushing you to claim. I am playing this game with more fervor than I usually might, this being my first game at this site. Anyway, I thought you were scummy. But right now, you're not nearly as scummy as I initially thought you were. That's because Kich and Bgg1996 placed you at L-2. Kichirou says his vote was random. Bgg1996 stated he though you were "suspicious." He has not elaborated yet. Obviously you feel no need to claim, so I thought my vote would do more if I placed it on someone who put you at L-2 for no adequately explained reason.

I certainly am trying to play both sides of your wagon. When I vote for someone, I may very well be wrong about that player's affiliation. Therefore, I not only want to know more about the player I'm voting for, but also the players who vote with me.

Vote stands.

Love you too.

[CancerBottle]

Snapshot of me having doubts about the CDB wagon:

EBWOP: This point might be stronger if I was voting for Kard right now, but I'm not. My motivation for discussing this in the first place was a) to defend myself against a FoS and b) to defend my integrity as a player my making it clear I wouldn't intentionally play any less than my best game in past games in order to gain an advantage now...

rather than trying to put suspicion on Kard.

I just think it was a reach to suggest that. I don't think anyone here would actually accuse you of intentionally playing poorly in one game to gain a tenuous advantage in another.

Then again, because it's so absurd, that might be why my thinking is faulty.

But, I would like to hear what other players have to say on the issue.

[CancerBottle]

*headdesk*

On my first read-through, I thought Kard's last response in this first exchange was to something else. Hooray for not paying attention, but running your mouth off anyway. In any event, it deflates my argument against CDB.

Nah, you don't have to link me, as you could be a scum, therefore, if someone pointed out what you said, you could simply link them to old games to throw them off your trail. Don't get me wrong, I'm not sure if you are or are not scum, I was simply acting on what I believe should be done.

I don't agree with your logic here. Evidence of a player's past behaviour as scum or town can help people to judge on their alignment in current games depending on whether they behave the same or differently than in the past. Are you suggesting that I would deliberately do something that might be suspicious as town in the past so that I could do it again as scum and be able to give evidence that it's something I do as town?

I do indeed believe you could have deliberately done that, but I could be(and most likely am) wrong. I will just have to wait to find out.

Kard first suggests CDB might use past games to explain future behavior. That's fine. However, CDB interprets this as an accusation that he was playing poorly as Town in previous games in order to trick us in future games. This response seems overly defensive; Kard does not appear to suggest that. But wait! Kard then says he did in fact suggest CDB was throwing games intentionally to cite it later.

Kard later confirms this:

Indeed, that was the correct interpretation, and no need to apologize. You are once again correct, I can't make that argument.

What made CDM scummy in my eyes was that he seemed to be making a strawman argument out of Kard's suggestion. But if the Kard says he really was making that argument, it isn't much of a strawman, is it?

Are you suggesting that I would deliberately do something that might be suspicious as town in the past so that I could do it again as scum and be able to give evidence that it's something I do as town?

This is a bit of a reach, don't you think? I mean, I don't see Kard suggesting that you have deliberately played scummy as town in a previous game, only to be able to cite that playstyle in other games.

Indeed, besides it's possible that he is a scum, but he did not deliberately play that way in previous games, so he's using this to his advantage. Or maybe I'm looking to much into this; either way, I'm sure I'm wrong somehow.

Here, with me being loud and annoying, Kard hedges his way out of the exchange, saying CDB might be doing either or all to throw off the town, or his suspicions on CDB might be totally off.

I'm not quite sure what to make of the entire exchange. My first inkling is to assume both CDB and Kard are townies, and CDB didn't want to give the wrong impression as the game's IC. Thus explaining the over-defensiveness. Kard is simply a townie over-interpreting things, because there isn't much to go on. When confronted with why his suggestion is outlandish, he tries to distance himself from the argument, understandably.

However, FatedLunar's suggestion (post 54) that Kard might be scum trying to hook a townie seems quite plausible as well.

While we could lynch one of them, or me for that matter, to find out if one or all is engineering something scummy here, let's try to find something more concrete.

What do you all think?

...

Well Kichirou has claimed his vote was random, while Bgg1996 states he voted for CBD because he was

"suspicious."

Careful, he said that CDB's

vote

was suspicious.

FatedLunar: Do you still think that Kard may be scum? What do you think about the fact that CDB was at L-2?

Kichirou & bgg1996: TALK PLEASE

That's true:

Then what about you, bgg1996? Why did you vote for CBD?

His vote seemed suspicious.
Besides, it's the first round.

In response to Bgg1996, are you saying the town can afford to be more "loose" with votes because it's the first day? Well, I actually agree somewhat, but it's not a good idea to vote imprudently simply because there's an abundance of townies on Day 1.

[CancerBottle]

FYI to the mod: I will be at a Chinese Language camp at a state college from July 12 to the 25th. I WILL have internet access during that time, but it will be limited.


...

You want a reason? Here.

He was the first to vote.
A mafia would be more active as he would be waiting to night kill someone.
A townie however, would be less active.
There is then the possibility that he is a cop/doctor.
I cannot disprove this theory, however, It would be less likely, because if he was mafia, then the other mafia would assist him in voting for the same person, most likely without a reason.
Both Channeldelibird, and dothefandango voted for cancerbottle, without clear reason. I can then deduce that If ChannelDelibird is mafia, then dothefango is also mafia, and if ChannelDelibird isn't, then dothefango is most likey a townie. Therefore, even if ChannelDelibird is good, then we can get valuable information from him.

Bgg's post here reeks of newbtown. His reasoning makes sense at a basic level. The reactionary voting jibes with that theory too. I remember the first games I played at other forums saw similar types reasoning attached to votes. Players were voted for because their login/logout times were close to when the mod posted NAs or players got bandwagoned to death because they were aggressive, and only scum would want to aggressively get players lynched....

Now that being said, we've got to decide upon someone to lynch eventually. I just don't think it should be Bgg1996.

Unvote: Bgg1996

...

However I am feeling a Kard lynch. We noted how he was willing to subscribe to the "playing scummy in past games to bamboozle the newbies of Newbie 807" theory. CDB already noted how Kard's OMGUS vote against Crazypianist was unhelpful.

And here,

I suppose one could look at it that way, but sorry, I only wanted to put it behind us because I didn't mean for it to escalate to that level. I didn't expect my FoS to turn into a 3 page discussion.

This was what I wanted to hear. I'll

Unvote

now. I'll wait until hearing CDB's analysis tomorrow until casting another vote.

What sort of response did you

not

want to hear, Crazypianist?

The vote/unvote exchange between Kard and Crazypianist leads me to believe the two may be scumbuddies. Doing so is a great distancing tactic because it allows scum to appear to be actively scumhunting while protecting their own. Later on, if one is lynched and is revealed to be scum, the other can say "how can I be mafia, I suspected him once!"

...

CDB: why is your vote still one me?

Dothefandagngo: why did you say CDB and myself were equally suspicious when when we each only had ONE non-random vote. Why did you not include FoShizzle in your "equally suspicious lineup" when he also had one non-random vote?

Vote: Kard8p3

[CancerBottle]

What sort of response did you not want to hear, Crazypianist?

The, "I was tunneling CDB" response of course. Also, the "I didn't want it to escalate to that level" made me think he was honest.

Ok, I should have asked this earlier, but what does "tunneling" mean? I've been assuming it means subverting a player, working away at him or her in an attempt to get that player lynched. If that's what you mean, then yes, I would not have liked that response either.

However, why does saying he didn't want his my FoS on CDB to turn into a three page discussion honest? See, I would think if you FoS someone, you'd want discussion. Discussion from the player that the FoS was directed against and discussion from other players over your FoS. You'd want to know how other players thought about your suspicions.

CDB: why is your vote still one me?

It's not.

Oops, you're right. I was looking at Xtoxm's post at the top of the page.

Okay, there are 3 people I am currently going to look at again since I think they must be interesting, 1, and most interesting, Snow White, due to FatedLunar's post 54 of this thread, the sort of non committal nothingness that sets off bright neon warning lights.

Eh, I wouldn't say that. He just seemed like a newbie explaining his point of view. Perhaps you could elaborate a bit more? Anyways, nice to meet you Meji. Is it alright if I shorten your name like that?

I do think it's too much of a reach to suggest that ChannelDelibird is throwing games just so he can cite them later as instances when he did that behavior. That in and of itself just sounds absurd to me, but I'm also not too experienced with these games, so yeah. With ChannelDelibird in particular, I haven't seen anything in his behavior yet that strikes me as scummish yet, but that's just me.

To be honest, that whole argument yesterday was actually making me suspicious that Kard might be scum, and just looking for excuses to pick someone out for scummish behavior. But the thing is, I can also see a townie doing that, even if the extent he went was a bit too much than he should of gone, so I'm reserving judgement on scums right now(my scum radar tends to suck anyway, from what little games I've played on other sites).

I gotta agree with Meji here. Posting suspicions about someone but not acting on them is scummy. Even though you might not be 100% or even 40% sure, voting puts pressure on players to talk and you can always retract your vote later.

...

If you noticed in the beginning, I pointed at Kard initially when I thought he was the most suspicious, with no reasons beyond my own opinion and a gut instinct. Then when it became clear that people were using other's crazy reasoning, I didn't feel it proper for someone to be bandwagon'd on Day 1.

I keep my vote where it is until I actually have motive to move it.

Ha. You can give credit where credit is due.

But since my crazy reasoning has been debunked, by me no less, why not revote? From this post and post 76, it sounds like you didn't vote for me because you thought I was scummy.

Now that Kard, who you originally had suspicions on is on the chopping block, why aren't you voting for him? Or do you think we're bandwagoning again?

[CancerBottle]

Wouldn't that seem hypocritical? If anything, that would allure me to vote for crazypianist , but I suppose that would just cause more problems.

From the wiki:

Several Votes on the same player to try to Lynch them or force them to roleclaim; especially used if the votes come in quick succession and without independent reasons.

Bandwagons can be especially frustrating for players, because they can seem to build a momentum of their own. Independent of the validity of the original reasoning that started it. Some players (ProTown or Scum) will even give up, rather than face the uphill battle of recovering against such an onslaught.

Bandwagoning is usually used on Day 1 to quickly gather information on players' roles and voting patterns. It is especially dangerous during Lynch-or-Lose situations (where one misvote will make the town lose) and should be avoided at that point.

So far, nearly all the players in this game have given their independent reasons for voting. Those that haven't have been questioned 'till they explain their votes. As for the CDB "bandwagon," two of the three votes on him were random, I explained why I kept my vote on him. And Bgg1996 explained the reasoning behind his vote. In any event, if you don't have players coming to a consensus, deciding to vote on a particular player, how does the town move past day 1?

It seems your strategy is to find the player with the wagon on him and vote for someone else.

And why would you be "lured" into voting for Crazypianist? You've lost me there.

[CancerBottle]

Ah wait, I get the Crazypianist "lure."

You're trying to keep things balanced? Keep players honest? In what case do you hop on a bandwagon?

Also could you answer this:

Dothefandagngo: why did you say CDB and myself were equally suspicious in the town's eyes when when we each only had ONE non-random vote. Why did you not include FoShizzle in your "equally suspicious lineup" when he also had only one non-random vote?

[CancerBottle]

@Dothefandango. First you say your bored and want to get someone voted off to speed the process of the game, now you say that you were bullied into voting. Can you make up your mind?

I'm saying how I felt when I posted and voted. I felt like A.) The game was not progressing, and that

B.) I was being obstinate in my motive to not vote for a L-2+ suspect, and C.) that you guys were looking at me not voting as more suspicious than anything.

Apparently I was wrong on all counts.

So I guess I was bored, curious, and pressured all at the same time. I did not vote for him in haste, I put up the biggest fight out of anyone besides you Snow White. In the end, I obviously should have listened to you, but hindsight is 20/20.

I can't speak for the others, but I was wondering why you we keeping your vote on me, when you plainly said your vote was "to mix things up." So I can infer from that, that you didn't think I was scummy. Yet you kept your vote on me.

Would you mind answering this, Dothefandango:

Dothefandagngo: why did you say CDB and myself were equally suspicious in the town's eyes when when we each only had ONE non-random vote. Why did you not include FoShizzle in your "equally suspicious lineup" when he also had only one non-random vote?

Now the rest of us are wondering how you went from this:

I think this all much aqdo about nothing. Someone needs to go so we can get this game on the road.

To this:

If you noticed in the beginning, I pointed at Kard initially when I thought he was the most suspicious, with no reasons beyond my own opinion and a gut instinct. Then when it became clear that people were using other's crazy reasoning, I didn't feel it proper for someone to be bandwagon'd on Day 1.

I keep my vote where it is until I actually have motive to move it.

And finally to this:

ERGH tired of talking in circles about this, but

KARD

seems like your time is now...

Vote KARD

As per the rules, this vote counts. Bold tags fixed. - Mod.

I have a hard time believing my two posts urging you to take your vote off me "bullied" you. While it's nice to know I have that sort of persuasive power, I'm not sure that I buy it.

However, you have said something I agree with wholeheartedly:

And what are your suspicions?

Indeed, Kichirou, what are your suspicions?

Vote: Kichirou

[CancerBottle]

So much stuff has happened. A lot of it surprised me. But I have made a few observations.

Vote: Snow White

Meji Fan was the sole person to vote for Snow White. Snow White, seeing that Meji Fan was the only one who suspected her, would want to kill Meji Fan to cut out those suspicions.

Interesting idea. Sounds a little overt, but it's possible. But as Meji pointed out, it could be a simple frame.

I think DTF is very suspicious today as well. In day 1 he barely talked at all, yet when he made a reason-less vote which caused a lynch, he talks a ton.

It might also be because he's got two votes on him. He's anxious to save his skin. Not necessarily pro or anit-town.

I'm not quite sure what you two are talking about but I have my own theories Vote: crazypianist1116

I too would like to hear why you're voting for me. I don't think CancerBottle needed to vote just to hear your reasons though, he could have merely asked you.

I tend to get answers quicker with votes. In addition, I didn't want to cast another vote on DTF, after what happened to Kard.

[CancerBottle]

Not keen on dothefandango openly speculating about Kichirou as a cop. Suggests he may be scum passing his suspicion on to his buddy in case of his own lynch.

In my last game--on a different forum--a player openly mused on the identity of the vig. We lynched him for it, and he turned out to be the GF....

I mean, we're just speculating, right?

Further, on that note: I don't think crazy is the right place to look right now either. He saved me from being at L-1, which is just as valuable to not being scum as anything.

Well, he could be your scumbuddy for all we know. That's not much of a defense.

...

Sorry for the lack of participation. They've got me very busy here. More to come tonight.

[CancerBottle]

Alright, so I finally have wrestled some time away from the camp directors and an a laptop from a fellow...inmate...to post.

Anyway, during the night phase, I took some time to re-read the thread. Way back when during the Great Kardwagon, I noticed this from Snow White:

CBD appears innocent because he has not a vote on Kard. But equally this could be WIFOM. And yet you continue to tunnel CancerBottle for his additional questions. You seem rather defensive CBD but i think this is just because your an IC and trying to get conversation started for the minute.

I don't see how CDB defending himself against what were gravely misguided suspicions is suspicious. Granted, these were only initial observations, but I find it odd that Snow White didn't post more about the strength of my argument against CDB, but rather that CDB is being "defensive." It seems like she was "storing" an argument for a later vote. Now, I realize I accused CDB of doing the same, but I think there's a stronger case of that "storing" here.

CDB has 3 votes on him.

2of the people have been fading from view and i think they had just bandwagoned to get things moving.

Neither of them have had much explainations to their votes and

i would like an explaination from Kirichou's "CDB's vote was random"

and bgg1996 "he's suspicious" before i vote for either one of them. They could have been plain old townies who just got bored after trying to rush the game along.

If they bandwagoned to "get things moving," then it seems like it would be best to bring them back into view. Notice, how Snow White doesn't ask for more explanation from Kichirou the Goon or Bgg, only more explanation before voting for either of them. Also, what more expanation were you expecting from Kichirou, Snow White, besides, "it was random"?

I agree with snow someone was trying to frame her and push the magnifying glass away from them self so who was the person who had suspicions placed on them last round? Kard and Crazy we know it wasn't the Kard so that leaves Crazy and what do you know snow was voting for him.

Well, the above post was made by scum, and implicates a known townie.

What do you think Snow White? Another frame?

[CancerBottle]

Then you were "bullied" into voting by cancer bottle, i presume? Who was if im not mistaken was stating a case around to voting for crazy?

Most certainly not. I was pushing a vote for Kard, who's vote flipping we can all agree was suspicious.

[CancerBottle]

Snow White doesn't ask for more explanation from Kickirou the Goon or Bgg, only more explanation before voting for either of them

what is it you are hoping for me to explain about that?

It looks like you're trying to avoid voting for either of them. As if you're worried you'll be forced to cast a vote for either of them.

[CancerBottle]

Further, where is CB in this discussion? Or snow white?

I'm in and out, sorry.

After the Kichirou lynch and the Crazypianist NK, a re-read made me begin to believe Snow White was scummy. I don't like the way she innocently interpreted Bgg--but especially Kichirou's --votes on Kard. Elaboration can be found in my post 266.

However, I haven't ignored CDB's case against DTF. And this case is based on a scummy vote. I suppose that's stronger than my interpretation of Snow White's posts.

You know what, I'll "stir the pot."

Vote: dothfandango

[CancerBottle]

Oh crud, sorry.

I've been running around D.C., and I totally forgot about this game.

Some analysis within the hour.

[CancerBottle]

Ah wow, alot more has happened than I thought.

I'll respond to some posts that stuck out to me first then I'll post my thoughts on events thus far.

Ok, computer is fixed and I'm ready to go.

I'm willing to let go of Snow White, but to be perfectly honest do not think this unvote is a relaxation of my suspicions. You guys made some good points and I think we need to look further into this.

UNVOTE

... for now.

Which points convinced you? It's also interesting that you unvoted after I analysed SW's posts and voted for you.

Speaking of which, why didn't the mafia kill the little IC?
That's right, I want some answers from you this time CDB.
Don't take it personnally, I'll do it to everyone. It's just to clear false suspicions.
1. Why didn't the mafia kill the IC rather than mejifan, and crazypianist?
2. Why are you so obsessed with killing me and dothefandango?
3. Why can't I think of a third question?

This is actually a good question, but unfortunately, is very much unanswerable. In my experience, it goes two ways IF the IC is NOT mafia:

1. Players who are considered "the best" are usually NK'd by night 3.

2. Or those good players are currently barking up an Townie's tree, and since those "good" players hold so much persuasive power, that Townie is likely to get lynched. So, the mafia spares him.

...

Now then, about the Bgg-DTF-CDB Triangle of Confusion.

Bgg's 1337 sting operation/plan-thing, again glowed newb-town. Newb-town tend to threaten those who pose a threat to them. They haven't grasped the concept of tact just yet. Also, NT tend to theorize mafia connections without considering the WIFOM involved.

That being said, I feel I must defend an aspect of the "Too Townie" argument against CDB. We've all seen games where the last scum won. The one player we were certain was Town. He/she made all the right moves, went after players for their bad logic and even led wagons against their fellow scum. After the game is over, everyone says "Dang, I knew something was up with him. He seemed too town to be a good guy."

For reference: http://forum.specialopspaintball.com/in ... &p=2306061

So what I'm saying is, while I have no reason to suspect CDB (in fact he is on my tentative pro-town list), I don't think we should dismiss the "Too Townie" fallacy altogether. Lynches should be based upon scummy posts, but sometimes, your gut feeling on a player is on the right track.

...

DTF, when you make a scummy vote, or a scummy posts--whether by accident or maligned intent--the correct response is to explain your reasoning. Even if it is bad reasoning, pro-town players may understand. Now you've done that to an extent, you say you felt pressured into voting for Kard. But then proclaiming: "look it was a long time ago, don't bring it up" gives the mafia ammunition to use in a lynch against you which is obviously a bad thing for the town.

Thing is though, your actions thus far have been the scummiest. You put an innocent at L-1 under dubious "pressure" and then asked for that action to be ignored.

...

CDB, what will you do if DTF is lynched and is revealed innocent? I will be going after Snow White if that's the case.

[CancerBottle]

Speaking of which, why didn't the mafia kill the little IC?
That's right, I want some answers from you this time CDB.
Don't take it personnally, I'll do it to everyone. It's just to clear false suspicions.
1. Why didn't the mafia kill the IC rather than mejifan, and crazypianist?
2. Why are you so obsessed with killing me and dothefandango?
3. Why can't I think of a third question?

This is actually a good question, but unfortunately, is very much unanswerable. In my experience, it goes two ways IF the IC is NOT mafia:

1. Players who are considered "the best" are usually NK'd by night 3.

2. Or those good players are currently barking up an Townie's tree, and since those "good" players hold so much persuasive power, that Townie is likely to get lynched. So, the mafia spares him.

Yes, it's possible the mafia wants me to lynch DTF. It's also possible, as I've mentioned before, that by leaving me alive they were simply hoping that eventually we would be having this very conversation ("why is the IC still alive? that's suspicious"). As well as a million other reasons.

Is

nobody

listening to me? The

only

thing we can make remotely certain judgement on is POSTS. Things people have said publicly. If there are no scummy posts, there is no case.

A sentiment of which I have agreed. Thing is, as scum, I've used the same argument you're using, when people go after me or my fellow scumbuddies for WIFOM reasons.

Bgg's 1337 sting operation/plan-thing, again glowed newb-town. Newb-town tend to threaten those who pose a threat to them. They haven't grasped the concept of tact just yet. Also, NT tend to theorize mafia connections without considering the WIFOM involved.

I agree with this to an extent (newbie scum also speculates on nightkills and framings because it's easier than scumhunting through analysing posts), but I am not sure who specifically you mean by saying "newb-town tend to threaten those who pose a threat to them". As far as I can tell, bgg's "plan" was about threatening, loosely, "the scum".

Sorry, I should have made that clearer. Pronouns FTL. When NT are questioned by another player NT tend to think that the only players who suspect them are scum. Hence the odd "I have secret info I'm going off of" messages. Good point about newbscum, but in my experience, IIoA, which is kinda what you're talking about isn't all that great a tell. I've found newbscum tend to be as quiet as possible, only showing up to vote or make sketchy analysis.

That being said, I feel I must defend an aspect of the "Too Townie" argument against CDB. We've all seen games where the last scum won. The one player we were certain was Town. He/she made all the right moves, went after players for their bad logic and even led wagons against their fellow scum. After the game is over, everyone says "Dang, I knew something was up with him. He seemed too town to be a good guy."

NO.

NO.

NO.

Yes, scum can play great games and win without garnering much suspicion, but that CANNOT be the only reason to lynch someone, EVER. There has to be *something* that they have said or done that looks scummy, otherwise nine times out of ten it is genuinely a helpful town player that is lynched.

It's Occam's Razor = the simplest answer is usually the correct one. If somebody has been making pro-town arguments, aggressively scumhunting, asking questions, and generally looking pro-town,

they are probably town

.

*facepalm*

*facepalm*

*facepalm*

(Actually that does feel good.)

You'll note that I said cases for lynches need to be build around scummy posts.... I also said, the "gut feeling" should not be ignored.

While I'm a big fan of Occam and his shaving implements, you could turn it around and say the only reason why the IC is still alive is because he himself is scum, not a victim of a somewhat elaborate mafia scheme to distract or discredit him. Again, as scum, I've slammed players for such gut feelings, stating they must find more solid evidence. Their feelings about be were correct, but they couldn't find the evidence to lynch me from my posts.

So what I'm saying is, while I have no reason to suspect CDB (in fact he is on my tentative pro-town list), I don't think we should dismiss the "Too Townie" fallacy altogether. Lynches should be based upon scummy posts, but sometimes, your gut feeling on a player is on the right track.

You've actually used the word "fallacy" yourself! That alone is a pretty damn good reason to dismiss it.

It is a fallacy if that's all you have to base your case on. BUT, I've been burned too many times to dismiss the "Too Townie" argument alltogether.

CDB, what will you do if DTF is lynched and is revealed innocent? I will be going after Snow White if that's the case.

I'm not going to set up tomorrow's lynch before we've seen what happens with today's. As it stands, today, I don't see Snow White as likely scum and it would take a lot for me to change my mind. (There is also the fact that someone will [probably] be nightkilled, and that will reduce the suspect pool)

I ask because you seem pretty steadfast on taking down DTF and Bgg. So if DTF is town, it appears you'll still want to go after Bgg.

[CancerBottle]

A sentiment of which I have agreed. Thing is, as scum, I've used the same argument you're using, when people go after me or my fellow scumbuddies for WIFOM reasons.

I hope they listened to you.

Note that they shortly lost the game to the mafia thereafter because I condemned them for listening to their gut instinct.

IIoA (Information Instead of Analysis for the uninformed) isn't really my point here. A faulty WIFOM argument isn't information, it's an argument.

My mistake then, I was under the impression IIoA extends to theorizing about set-up and speculating the motives behind NKs.

You'll note that I said cases for lynches need to be build around scummy posts.... I also said, the "gut feeling" should not be ignored.

Yes, it absolutely should if you have no reason to back it up. Gut feeling comes from things that rub you up the wrong way. If your (hypothetical you) gut is saying "he looks really town...suspiciously so", then you ate something weird for breakfast.

Gut feelings should provoke a player to dig deeper. If a player's posts rub you the wrong way try to figure out why.

While I'm a big fan of Occam and his shaving implements, you could turn it around and say the only reason why the IC is still alive is because he himself is scum, not a victim of a somewhat elaborate mafia scheme to distract or discredit him. Again, as scum, I've slammed players for such gut feelings, stating they must find more solid evidence. Their feelings about be were correct, but they couldn't find the evidence to lynch me from my posts.

That's not the simplest solution - my whole point here is that

we don't know what the simplest solution regarding nightkills is

, which is why they're highly unreliable as evidence.

And congratulations, you played a great game as scum and deserved to win. That's the exception, not the rule.

If the question is "why is the IC, the most experienced player, still alive" then the simplest explanation is that player is still alive because he is mafia. Anything else requires something more elaborate on the mafia's part. You'll notice that I didn't involve myself in the NK analysis after nights one and two. I feel there's too much WIFOM involved.

Erm, not really. When half of the players suspect you're mafia, I don't know how great that is. What I did was I asserted a certain type of evidence was completely invalid and refused to accept it.

It's possible. It will depend on how the end of the day comes around, who gets nightkilled, what people say at the start of the next day. I intend to keep an open mind and take things as they come. Right now all we should be focusing on is today.

Fair enough.

...

Ill put this simply.

Meji for whatever reason came in and immediately did not like me. I was the only person on her scumdar for a remark i had made in contradiction from when i was replaced in. And if anyone wants the remark ask, and i will provide it.

Um, no.

Okay, there are 3 people I am currently going to look at again since I think they must be interesting, 1, and most interesting, Snow White, due to FatedLunar's post 54 of this thread, the sort of non committal nothingness that sets off bright neon warning lights

As for post 54, that post was open to any and all possibilities, supporting none of them, lets see which way the wind blows and make vague comments. The sort of scummy post that leaves everything open

I like where my vote is

@CB you suspect me because of DTF's Occam's Razor or is there actually something i can answer to? Or is DTF's post 337 all there is. A second post i made trying to explain my innocence.

While the "frames" are odd, that's not why I suspect you.

Anyway, during the night phase, I took some time to re-read the thread. Way back when during the Great Kardwagon, I noticed this from Snow White:

CBD appears innocent because he has not a vote on Kard. But equally this could be WIFOM. And yet you continue to tunnel CancerBottle for his additional questions. You seem rather defensive CBD but i think this is just because your an IC and trying to get conversation started for the minute.

I don't see how CDB defending himself against what were gravely misguided suspicions is suspicious. Granted, these were only initial observations, but I find it odd that Snow White didn't post more about the strength of my argument against CDB, but rather that CDB is being "defensive." It seems like she was "storing" an argument for a later vote. Now, I realize I accused CDB of doing the same, but I think there's a stronger case of that "storing" here.

CDB has 3 votes on him.

2of the people have been fading from view and i think they had just bandwagoned to get things moving.

Neither of them have had much explainations to their votes and

i would like an explaination from Kirichou's "CDB's vote was random"

and bgg1996 "he's suspicious" before i vote for either one of them. They could have been plain old townies who just got bored after trying to rush the game along.

If they bandwagoned to "get things moving," then it seems like it would be best to bring them back into view. Notice, how Snow White doesn't ask for more explanation from Kichirou the Goon or Bgg, only more explanation before voting for either of them. Also, what more expanation were you expecting from Kichirou, Snow White, besides, "it was random"?

I agree with snow someone was trying to frame her and push the magnifying glass away from them self so who was the person who had suspicions placed on them last round? Kard and Crazy we know it wasn't the Kard so that leaves Crazy and what do you know snow was voting for him.

Well, the above post was made by scum, and implicates a known townie.

What do you think Snow White? Another frame?

Snow White doesn't ask for more explanation from Kickirou the Goon or Bgg, only more explanation before voting for either of them

what is it you are hoping for me to explain about that?

It looks like you're trying to avoid voting for either of them. As if you're worried you'll be forced to cast a vote for either of them.

EBWOP (which I'm making now): It seems like you want someone to make a case against Kichirou or Bgg before you will vote for them

To which you respond:

At this stage the person i was most adament was scum just flipped town. Im not that sure i want to vote for anyone else and have it blow up in my face if im not voted ooff today.

But the part I'm refering to was during the Kard lynch.

[CancerBottle]

CDB, will you please post everything that you can find scummy about me, so I can disprove it and help find the scum? Thank you in advance.

This about sums it up.

Way to miss my point. I thought your vote on Kichirou was for terrible reasons (abandoning your supposed real suspicion for the sake of the game moving on) and looked like you might have been throwing your scumbuddy under the bus. This is independent of DTF.

[CancerBottle]

To be honest, walls of text just frustrate me to no end. Walls of text responding to walls of text are even more difficult for me to stand. But anyhow, I'm trying to think of a good way to say this without really sounding like an idiot, but there are so many questions that people asked me in the last few pages that I cannot address them all without getting lost in reading.

Bud, you're playing a

text-based

forum game.

It seemed, in my minds eye, that Snow White and Kichirou were working together. This post by Kichirou caked it, in my mind:

I agree with snow someone was trying to frame her and push the magnifying glass away from them self so who was the person who had suspicions placed on them last round? Kard and Crazy we know it wasn't the Kard so that leaves Crazy and what do you know snow was voting for him.

but I see that after all was said and done how Kichirou could have said that just to get everyone off his tail and that Snow White was independant of this.

But, when CB brought this up earlier, Snow White never responds to it.

Dang, I actually didn't notice that Snow White's "soft" interpretation of Kichirou's vote on Kard was reciprocated. (post 208, BTW)

I think this new (at least new to me) connection warrents a re-vote.

Unvote: Dothefandango. Vote: Snow White.

CDB, most of my Snow White post was simply quoted from my post 266, FYI.

[CancerBottle]

Oh lord.

Even he can't help us now.

Townies please ask your questions of me straight forwardly in bullet points. Please. If you want us to be in with a chance of winning this game please give me the chance to clear my name!

Excuse me, but I'm not going to follow your formatting guidelines simply because you refuse to read our entire posts. In any event, I don't have questions for you, but rather suspicions--based upon your posts--which I have layed out. In the post directly above your's no less.

What is it you are wary of me for CancerBottle? FadedLunar's old post? I replaced in for her. What she said had nothing to do with me and the only reason i can give for that is thaat she was

A simple newb Townie

who was new to the game and unsure of her views.

FatedLunar has nothing to do with my suspicions towards you.

Im innocent. If you dont believe that fine. I apologise for being friendly to Kichiriou because i thought he was a simple bored townie. I was wrong and i will admit to it.

What made you think he was a simple bored townie?

@CancerBottle, im curious after the town scapegoat is lynched and flips innocent, who will your suspicions then turn to?

You are not a scapegoat, just another suspect. I have presented my suspicions against you. You have responded with theatrics. For now, it's really a contest between you and DTF.

...

Once more:

Ill put this simply.

Meji for whatever reason came in and immediately did not like me. I was the only person on her scumdar for a remark i had made in contradiction from when i was replaced in. And if anyone wants the remark ask, and i will provide it.

Um, no.

Okay, there are 3 people I am currently going to look at again since I think they must be interesting, 1, and most interesting, Snow White, due to FatedLunar's post 54 of this thread, the sort of non committal nothingness that sets off bright neon warning lights

As for post 54, that post was open to any and all possibilities, supporting none of them, lets see which way the wind blows and make vague comments. The sort of scummy post that leaves everything open

I like where my vote is

@CB you suspect me because of DTF's Occam's Razor or is there actually something i can answer to? Or is DTF's post 337 all there is. A second post i made trying to explain my innocence.

While the "frames" are odd, that's not why I suspect you.

Anyway, during the night phase, I took some time to re-read the thread. Way back when during the Great Kardwagon, I noticed this from Snow White:

CBD appears innocent because he has not a vote on Kard. But equally this could be WIFOM. And yet you continue to tunnel CancerBottle for his additional questions. You seem rather defensive CBD but i think this is just because your an IC and trying to get conversation started for the minute.

I don't see how CDB defending himself against what were gravely misguided suspicions is suspicious. Granted, these were only initial observations, but I find it odd that Snow White didn't post more about the strength of my argument against CDB, but rather that CDB is being "defensive." It seems like she was "storing" an argument for a later vote. Now, I realize I accused CDB of doing the same, but I think there's a stronger case of that "storing" here.

CDB has 3 votes on him.

2of the people have been fading from view and i think they had just bandwagoned to get things moving.

Neither of them have had much explainations to their votes and

i would like an explaination from Kirichou's "CDB's vote was random"

and bgg1996 "he's suspicious" before i vote for either one of them. They could have been plain old townies who just got bored after trying to rush the game along.

If they bandwagoned to "get things moving," then it seems like it would be best to bring them back into view. Notice, how Snow White doesn't ask for more explanation from Kichirou the Goon or Bgg, only more explanation before voting for either of them. Also, what more expanation were you expecting from Kichirou, Snow White, besides, "it was random"?

I agree with snow someone was trying to frame her and push the magnifying glass away from them self so who was the person who had suspicions placed on them last round? Kard and Crazy we know it wasn't the Kard so that leaves Crazy and what do you know snow was voting for him.

Well, the above post was made by scum, and implicates a known townie.

What do you think Snow White? Another frame?

Snow White doesn't ask for more explanation from Kickirou the Goon or Bgg, only more explanation before voting for either of them

what is it you are hoping for me to explain about that?

It looks like you're trying to avoid voting for either of them. As if you're worried you'll be forced to cast a vote for either of them.

EBWOP (which I made in post 345): It seems like you want someone to make a case against Kichirou or Bgg before you will vote for them

To which you respond:

At this stage the person i was most adament was scum just flipped town. Im not that sure i want to vote for anyone else and have it blow up in my face if im not voted ooff today.

But the part I'm refering to was during the Kard lynch.

I agree with snow someone was trying to frame her and push the magnifying glass away from them self so who was the person who had suspicions placed on them last round? Kard and Crazy we know it wasn't the Kard so that leaves Crazy and what do you know snow was voting for him.

Dang, I actually didn't notice that Snow White's "soft" interpretation of Kichirou's vote on Kard was reciprocated. (post 208, BTW)

[CancerBottle]

btw. reapplying my vote

Vote bgg1996

Er uh. Why?

[CancerBottle]

Snow White, good responses.

You did dismiss bgg's Kard vote as a newbie vote, as well as Kich's.

And Kichirou defending you so as to take you down with him seems more plausible than an elaborate frame via NKs.

Unvote: Snow White, vote: Dothefandango.

This would be the hammer, yes?

[CancerBottle]

Wow. Lesson 1, or maybe 5: "if they look like scum...they're probably scum."

I WIFOM'd myself into trusting bgg. Everyone say "Good job, CB."

Great game everybody. It was a real pleasure playing my first game on this site with all of you, and I can't wait 'till next game.

[CancerBottle]

Oh, and bgg did an amazing job, I didnt suspect him a bit . . . my 2nd favorite suspect was CDB

Bgg played great newb-town. I didn't realize he already had 200 posts.

[CancerBottle]

*Jaw Drop*

A replacement would have been a FAR better choıce sınce bgg had obvıously waıted untıl the tıme ran out. If ı had not already fınıshed another game before thıs one and ınvested ın several more ı would have never come back to thıs sıte.

Am ı dısgruntled? Yes. *Sıgh* Im annoyed how the game played out and yeah. I was town. Lolç surprıse. surprıse!

-Thanks to CDB for helpıng me wıth all my querıes. I thought you were an awesome IC now you were proved town.

-CB was an ıncredıble player to play wıth throughout who actually naıled me as ınnocent. *applause*

-Im sorry for Craypıanıst1116 who ı hounded lıke the hammers of hell and ı guess thats ıt.

Good luck everyone. I wısh ı could say ıt was an awesome game. But ın my opınıon. It wasnt. Sorry.

As always.
Snow.

Heh. To be honest, Snow White, once DTF flipped town, I was sure you were scum.

And yes, ChannelDelibird, you were a phenomenal IC. Thank you for guiding us newbies through this game. More or less, but mostly less, intact.

[CancerBottle]

Sorry for latching onto you Snow White, I really was convinced you were scum up until the last day when I was mildly torn between you and CDB

I hope I didnt put you off Mafia

And Im still curious why I got NKed

Ah tunnel vision.

Dido to Meji's second question.