The Werewolves of Millers Hollow (Game Over)

[Yosarian2]

Um...so, basically, you're fishing for town roles again, draconinc. Nice.

[Yosarian2]

Alright. I'm here. I'd like everyone who still wants to play in this game to send me a copy of thier PM to my inbox. An exact copy. If you lie then you break the rules and will get immeadiately replaced.

Role PM sent in.

You don't have a list of all the roles?

[MafiaSSK]

Alright. I'm here. I'd like everyone who still wants to play in this game to send me a copy of thier PM to my inbox. An exact copy. If you lie then you break the rules and will get immeadiately replaced.

Role PM sent in.

You don't have a list of all the roles?

I do. Just makes things easier for me whenever there's a lynch.

[dramonic]

call it fishing if you want, but the lovers are going to be a nuisance to the town in the long run if they are both town, and if they are half town half scum its one less third party to worry about.

[Yosarian2]

call it fishing if you want, but the lovers are going to be a nuisance to the town in the long run if they are both town, and if they are half town half scum its one less third party to worry about.

If you think it would be good for the town for the lovers to claim, then you should have said so, and we could have discusses it. Instead, you tried to trick them into revealing themselves, which seems bad.

Also...if we do make the lovers reveal themselves, dosn't that just give the scum a free 2 for 1?

[Starbuck]

Yeah, after that, my vote is not moving from dramonic.

[dramonic]

You'd rather give them a 2 for 1 when there are like, 6 people left Yos?

Also, for the... nth time, one of the lovers could be mafia <<

And the goal was not to "trick" the lovers. My objective was to know the lovers without the mafia knowing.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

And how exactly did you plan on pulling that off, genius?

[zwetschenwasser]

Um...so, basically, you're fishing for town roles again, draconinc. Nice.

THIS

[dramonic]

Through various methods, like say, analysing votes.

Also, it's dramonic, no draconinc

[Jahudo]

Why are you suggesting this now dramonic?

BTW, I think its a bad idea.

[dramonic]

Well, I've said why I think it's a worthy lynch, you don't have to help me search XS

[MikeSC6]

I actually think Dramonic has a point here- but as long as we take the possibility of Lovers into consideration as we play, we should be able to work around it without going the whole hog and possibly killing two townies.

[Jahudo]

I think the dissatisfaction event is a convenient time to suggest this, since getting rid of two townies instead of one tonight would help scum stay alive.

[MikeSC6]

I'll be V/LA (does that mean Vacation/Limited Activity?) from this Saturday, for one week.

[MafiaSSK]

I'll be V/LA (does that mean Vacation/Limited Activity?) from this Saturday, for one week.

Acknowledged.

[dramonic]

But scum can't control the dissatisfaction, it's a hidden vote and the town can influence it much more greatly

[NabakovNabakov]

Whoops, forgot about this game. I'll send my PM and get reading.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Sorry; I'm in the middle of moving and haven't had access. I should be back in a week or two.

Thanks for taking over, SSK.

[MafiaSSK]

Sorry; I'm in the middle of moving and haven't had access. I should be back in a week or two.

Thanks for taking over, SSK.

All right. I'll take it over until you tell me otherwise.

[NabakovNabakov]

Ok, so I made a big post analyzing Dramonic's loverhunt (conclusion: a bad idea that probably won't work anyway), but it got eaten by my computer's schizophrenic control key. I'll try to recreate it later.

[MafiaSSK]

Those who did not send me a PM and as thus will be replaced are:

The Replacement (Female, 19)
millar13 (Male, 18), Village Idiot
Rockatanskyknox (Female, 18)
Ztife (Female, 24)
Battle Mage

[dramonic]

so many replacement. This game is in trouble ;_;

[Jahudo]

But scum can't control the dissatisfaction, it's a hidden vote and the town can influence it much more greatly

I had already made a bad speculation because the NK's would take place after the hidden vote. Anyway, the only good thing I see about outing the lovers is if they were 3rd party, but we have no way of knowing. I think losing 2 town votes now hurts us more because we'd lose those votes for all days and not just endgame.

@Nabakov, what do you mean dramonic's plan wouldn't work?

[NabakovNabakov]

Ok, sorry about the delay.

Dramonic's plan has a number of potential faults:
1) From a VC-making perspective, you could completely disregard all the vote; unvote pairs in dramonic's test post. Therefore, if the lover vote restriction is enacted by simply not acknowleding any attempt they make to vote for each other, we won't learn anything.
2) If the restriction is enforced by some sort of private punishment, there will be no definite evidence of that punishment. We won't learn anything.
3)If the restriction is enforced by public punishment, that punishment will likely be replacement or modkill. Assuming that the lovers would be aware of this fact, we would essentially be asking the players to kick themselves out of the game, and that crosses some ethical lines in my book.

Therefore, the

only

way dramonic's plan will do what it is supposed to do is if the lover's non-voting clause is enforced in some way that is publically noticable but not a modkill. Add in the fact that (for the time being) we are working with a mod who may have no idea who the lovers are or what to do if they vote each other, and it looks like we have a slim chance of learning anything.

In terms of the strategic implications if we actually

did

have a reliable way to locate the lovers, I ran the probabilities and came up with this:

[Assuming 4 remaining scum + 1 third-party piper]
2 Town: 39.6% (9/14)*(8/13)
1 Scum; 1 Town: 49.5% (9/14)*(5/13) + (5/14)*(9/13)
2 Scum: 10.9% (5/14)*(4/13)

Note: These were not the numbers I was working with in my lost post. At that time, I had been treating the town as if it still had 21 people (which gave me less encouraging numbers), even though it is acceptable in the rules of probability to just use the number of town members alive today.

Note2: Also keep in mind that all these numbers are based on scum-group-size numbers that I do not have and are different (though not drastically so) for

+

1 scum-group-size.

If we were able to repeat this process a large number of times, we could catch roughly 80 scum and 120 townies per hundred lover reveals. In other words, revealing the lovers catches .8 of a scum. A random lynch (5/14), by comparsion, would catch about .36 of a scum. That might make it seem like lover-reveal has the edge, but a few considerations:
-We are not lynching randomly. That lynches informed and directed towards scum by town discussion is a founding principle in mafia.
-In 5/6 of cases where we kill scum, we also kill a townie.
-If we're talking about the chances of catching scum while killing 2 people, it's interesting to note that the chances of killing at least one scum with two consecutive random lynches under the Dissatisfaction rules is 74%, only 6% short of a lover-reveal.

Probability-wise, there is no discernable improvement to our chances of catching scum via revealing the lovers rather than actually hunting scum the good old fashioned way.

As to the argument that the lovers, regardless of their respective allignments, should be eliminated ASAP, I disagree that we gain anything from killing 2 town now rather than later. It would be nice to elminate the threat of Survivoresque third-party shenanigans, but I hardly think this concern takes precedence over locating the Mafia and Piper. If all three threatening factions (and we aren't even positive the lovers are a threatening faction) went unchecked, either the Mafia or the Piper would reach their win-condition long before the lovers.

So again: a bad idea that probably won't work anyway.