Newbie 807 - Game Over

[bgg1996]

aw crap, am I going to have to respond to all this?

Fine.
It was a stupid plan anyway.

Yes.

QFT

Speaking of which, since the plan cannot work after the mafia reads this post,

I unvote snow white

, but fo

m

s:CDB, you read the fact that if the mafia found out my plan, it would be ruined.

I've already said that it was you that ruined your "plan", not me, by drawing attention to it. There was no way any self-respecting town could have allowed you to get away with saying "I can't tell you why I'm doing this, but I'm not a cop" without explaining yourself, because there was no super-secret information you could have had. Ergo, as soon as you said it, you'd ruined it because you were always going to have to explain, so don't pin this on me because I was the one who asked you to.

Just because the plan was mentioned didn't necessarily mean it was going to fail. It's stupidness made sure of that. In fact I used complicated terms to give the illusion that it wasn't as stupid as in reality it was.
Also, there was a typo, I meant this.

After everyone else but cancerbottle posted, you were the only one to demand to know what it was.

Is my reasoning wrong?

Yes

.
Are the other players who posted newbies and therefore possibly not aware of why it was important you explained yourself?

not if they were townies

.

I noticed every night snow white got framed. After that I started to wonder what would happen if snow white got lynched. Again, I will remind you, that I since realized it was a stupid plan, because I came to the conclusion that the mafia would frame someone else. The mafia, of course, does not have to frame someone else. But since I didn't realize that at the time, I believed I could determine the mafia by who they framed. And remember, next round, NO VOTING!!!!!

Whoops, I unspoilered it. No-one's *not* gonna read it, anyway.

So, uh, yes, it's a bit of a stupid plan, because it relies entirely on conjecture about why people were nightkilled (I've continually given reasons why that sort of thing isn't reliable for scumhunting). So since you're aware that it's a stupid plan, why did you give me a Fo

m

S for supposedly ruining it? (as I've said above, you were the one that ruined it anyway)

Again,

Now that I've told you my plan, I will go on to tell you why I suspect CDB.
He suspects me, and dothefandango, and since DTF is probably dying today, that leaves me as his top suspect (And if DTF turns out to be evil, it doesn't matter who I suspect, because the game would be over), and I know myself to be good.

Clearly one of you is town. That much is obvious. Do you think I think you're

both

scum or something? O.o And why am I likely to be scum just because I suspect you and "you know you're town"? The whole point is that the town don't know who each other are, so town players suspect each other all the time. This is a non-argument.

What I was trying to say was, if dothefandango, ended up good, that would mean your ONLY two suspicions in the game are good, and if he ended up bad, there's no point in having suspicions in the first place, because the game would be over.

Don't you find it a little coincidental that his top suspects_me and DTF_ aren't lynched OR night killed till the 2nd-last day phase, assuming DTF is lynched.

This makes no sense either. You seem to be assuming the following:

1) that I've been suspicious of you and DTF from the very start of the game.
2) that I could have either of them lynched at any time just because I wanted to.
3) that I am somehow responsible for their not being nightkilled.

Here is why the above are not true:

1) I first expressed suspicion of DTF at the start of Day 2 (since I wasn't online at the time he made his lynch-1 vote on Kard, which was at the end of Day 1). I only seriously considered you as scum from your hammer vote at the end of Day 2, and consequently the start of today. I hadn't established clearly defined suspicions yet when Day 1 abruptly ended. So, your point that I've apparently been after you two the whole game is wrong.

I never said you were suspecting us from the start of the game, if you did, you could have picked kard by mistake.
I was saying that in the game, you only ever had 2 suspicions, me and DTF,

2) Of course I couldn't just have one of you lynched at any time just because I wanted to - if that were the case, DTF would have died a lot earlier, probably yesterday. I'm just one of the players in this game, and it requires a majority to lynch. Sure, I'm trying to persuade people to agree with me, because I agree with me, but that doesn't mean that I am responsible for the fact that neither of you have died yet. In fact, it suggests the opposite - I've been arguing for DTF particularly to die for two game days now, so it's pretty much down to everyone else that he hasn't died yet.

I can't argue with you there, but of course if you were mafia

3) This is unfair, because you are *assuming* that I am mafia and not including the possibility that I am town. For someone who's put so much stock into this whole "framing" business with regard to the nightkills, I find it ridiculous that you are so narrow-minded when it comes to how you think the nightkills make me look.

There is the possibility that you are town, but it's

your

job to explain why.

You're an IC, so if you were mafia, you could hide it pretty well, and I STILL find it strange you were never killed.

Being more experienced doesn't automatically make me a better player. I'm fine with you reading my play in this game and some of my other old games if you like, and judging my ability personally, but it's a lazy argument to say "all ICs must be better at mafia".

1.Practice makes perfect.
2.ARE you more experienced?
3.I

am

lazy.

Also, it's not enough for you to just say I'd be good at hiding it if I were mafia. That's using the Too Townie argument, where you accuse someone of being so pro-town, that they must be scum. It's a logical fallacy - if I look pro-town, I'm more likely to be pro-town. Unless you can find actual posts that I've made that are more likely to be made by scum than town (and, please, feel free to look), then you have no real reason to suspect me. It's just IC-fear, and it's baseless.

I'm going to repeat this, because it's something everyone needs to understand:

The only way you can judge whether you think people are scum or not is by finding posts that they've made that are scummy.

Not fear of someone's reputation (whether it's earned or not, I'm not going to judge my own ability as a player, that's up to you), not WIFOM based on a million possible reasons why Player X got killed at night rather than Player Y, but actual things they've said and done that are more likely to have been said and done by someone looking to blend in, to mislead the town, rather than someone looking to hunt the scum.

I genuinely believe that I have spent this game asking questions of people, picking them up only on things they've said and done in the thread, making them answer and explain themselves, to try and determine who is more likely to be scum. If any of you think I've been trying to blend in, or mislead the town,

find a post of mine that backs up that theory

. I'll be happy to explain myself, because I have nothing to hide.

I did that and found out you're actually probably not mafia.
No, not because of your advice,

Vote Count

ChannelDelibird (3)Kichirou

A mafia doesn't usually vote for it's teammate on the first round.

My top suspects are you and snow white, and may I add, never once did snow white vote a mafia.

You mean, never once did Snow White vote for a *confirmed* mafia. She may well have voted for the other mafia, but we don't know who that is yet. This is an unfair argument to use on her (and also, I never voted for Kichirou either. We can't both be scum).

I know, It was just something I thought I'd point out.

Also, Snow white, for your own good, list all of the possibly scummy things you did, and say why they aren't true. Trust me, the more there are, the less scummy you'll seem.

No, it's not up to her to find what she thinks might be scummy about herself, because she will believe everything she's done is pro-town. You have to tell her what you found scummy, and then she can respond to them.

I disagree with that statement, but I have the time now, so Snow White:
1. Why do you think the mafia tried to frame you rather than say, CDB?
2. What proof do you have that you're not mafia?
3. What does your scumdar say?

[Xtoxm]

Vote Count

DTF (2) CDB, CB

Not voting (3) SW, DTF, bgg

3 to lynch.

[bgg1996]

In other news, Snow White is quite right to react in the way she did to bgg's vague hints. They looked a lot like a cop trying to intimate a guilty investigation (and if we DO have a cop with a guilty, come out now and we can win the game), but as bgg's since specified that he is not a cop, then

bgg - you must explain yourself

. If you're not a cop, then there is no information you can have which can't or shouldn't be shared with the town. Any "plan" you had can't work now because you've drawn attention to it. Explain this in your next post, because otherwise it's just going to look like you're lying scum trying (and failing) to convince people to vote Snow White for a secret (read: no) reason.

Fine.
It was a stupid plan anyway.
Speaking of which, since the plan cannot work after the mafia reads this post,

I unvote snow white

, but fos:CDB, you read the fact that if the mafia found out my plan, it would be ruined. After everyone else but cancerbottle posted, you were the only one to demand to know what it was. Of course my plan would only work if snow white actually got lynched, sooo. I will now take a break from why I suspect CDB to tell you my plan.It's in the spoiler.

I noticed every night snow white got framed. After that I started to wonder what would happen if snow white got lynched. Again, I will remind you, that I since realized it was a stupid plan, because I came to the conclusion that the mafia would frame someone else. The mafia, of course, does not have to frame someone else. But since I didn't realize that at the time, I believed I could determine the mafia by who they framed. And remember, next round, NO VOTING!!!!!

Now that I've told you my plan, I will go on to tell you why I suspect CDB.
He suspects me, and dothefandango, and since DTF is probably die-ing today, that leaves me as his top suspect (And if DTF turns out to be evil, it doesn't matter who I suspect, because the game would be over), and I know myself to be good. Don't you find it a little coincidental that his top suspects_me and DTF_ aren't lynched OR night killed till the 2nd-last day phase, assuming DTF is lynched. You're an IC, so if you were mafia, you could hide it pretty well, and I STILL find it strange you were never killed.

My top suspects are you and snow white, and may I add, never once did snow white vote a mafia.

Also, Snow white, for your own good, list all of the possibly scummy things you did, and say why they aren't true. Trust me, the more there are, the less scummy you'll seem.

ahem

[CancerBottle]

Oh crud, sorry.

I've been running around D.C., and I totally forgot about this game.

Some analysis within the hour.

[CancerBottle]

Ah wow, alot more has happened than I thought.

I'll respond to some posts that stuck out to me first then I'll post my thoughts on events thus far.

Ok, computer is fixed and I'm ready to go.

I'm willing to let go of Snow White, but to be perfectly honest do not think this unvote is a relaxation of my suspicions. You guys made some good points and I think we need to look further into this.

UNVOTE

... for now.

Which points convinced you? It's also interesting that you unvoted after I analysed SW's posts and voted for you.

Speaking of which, why didn't the mafia kill the little IC?
That's right, I want some answers from you this time CDB.
Don't take it personnally, I'll do it to everyone. It's just to clear false suspicions.
1. Why didn't the mafia kill the IC rather than mejifan, and crazypianist?
2. Why are you so obsessed with killing me and dothefandango?
3. Why can't I think of a third question?

This is actually a good question, but unfortunately, is very much unanswerable. In my experience, it goes two ways IF the IC is NOT mafia:

1. Players who are considered "the best" are usually NK'd by night 3.

2. Or those good players are currently barking up an Townie's tree, and since those "good" players hold so much persuasive power, that Townie is likely to get lynched. So, the mafia spares him.

...

Now then, about the Bgg-DTF-CDB Triangle of Confusion.

Bgg's 1337 sting operation/plan-thing, again glowed newb-town. Newb-town tend to threaten those who pose a threat to them. They haven't grasped the concept of tact just yet. Also, NT tend to theorize mafia connections without considering the WIFOM involved.

That being said, I feel I must defend an aspect of the "Too Townie" argument against CDB. We've all seen games where the last scum won. The one player we were certain was Town. He/she made all the right moves, went after players for their bad logic and even led wagons against their fellow scum. After the game is over, everyone says "Dang, I knew something was up with him. He seemed too town to be a good guy."

For reference: http://forum.specialopspaintball.com/in ... &p=2306061

So what I'm saying is, while I have no reason to suspect CDB (in fact he is on my tentative pro-town list), I don't think we should dismiss the "Too Townie" fallacy altogether. Lynches should be based upon scummy posts, but sometimes, your gut feeling on a player is on the right track.

...

DTF, when you make a scummy vote, or a scummy posts--whether by accident or maligned intent--the correct response is to explain your reasoning. Even if it is bad reasoning, pro-town players may understand. Now you've done that to an extent, you say you felt pressured into voting for Kard. But then proclaiming: "look it was a long time ago, don't bring it up" gives the mafia ammunition to use in a lynch against you which is obviously a bad thing for the town.

Thing is though, your actions thus far have been the scummiest. You put an innocent at L-1 under dubious "pressure" and then asked for that action to be ignored.

...

CDB, what will you do if DTF is lynched and is revealed innocent? I will be going after Snow White if that's the case.

[ChannelDelibird]

I've already said that it was you that ruined your "plan", not me, by drawing attention to it. There was no way any self-respecting town could have allowed you to get away with saying "I can't tell you why I'm doing this, but I'm not a cop" without explaining yourself, because there was no super-secret information you could have had. Ergo, as soon as you said it, you'd ruined it because you were always going to have to explain, so don't pin this on me because I was the one who asked you to.

Just because the plan was mentioned didn't necessarily mean it was going to fail. It's stupidness made sure of that. In fact I used complicated terms to give the illusion that it wasn't as stupid as in reality it was.

Explain to me why my logic is wrong when I say that a town

must

ask a player who explicitly claims not-cop yet also claims some secret plan that precludes them from explaining themselves to explain themselves.

Also, there was a typo, I meant this.

After everyone else but cancerbottle posted, you were the only one to demand to know what it was.

Is my reasoning wrong?

Yes

.
Are the other players who posted newbies and therefore possibly not aware of why it was important you explained yourself?

not if they were townies

.

What? You're saying that townies, even newbie townies, would know why you had to explain yourself rather than just be allowed to go on saying "it's a plan, shhhh", and therefore you are suggesting that DTF, who was the only one who did not pick you up on it, is scum? If so, why are you voting Snow White and not DTF?

Also, saying it was only a Finger of Minor Suspicion doesn't change that it's a degree of suspicion, and I see absolutely no reason why I should be suspected for picking you up on that.

Clearly one of you is town. That much is obvious. Do you think I think you're

both

scum or something? O.o And why am I likely to be scum just because I suspect you and "you know you're town"? The whole point is that the town don't know who each other are, so town players suspect each other all the time. This is a non-argument.

What I was trying to say was, if dothefandango, ended up good, that would mean your ONLY two suspicions in the game are good, and if he ended up bad, there's no point in having suspicions in the first place, because the game would be over.

This makes absolutely no sense. Yes, it's possible you are both town, but I think it's unlikely, given the evidence, but that's not the point - you seem to be implying that I somehow *couldn't* only suspect town players, and that is ridiculous.

On the other hand, what do you mean, there would be no point in having suspicions in the first place because the game would be over - THAT WOULD BE THE POINT. Finding the scum, lynching them, ENDING THE GAME. I genuinely have no idea what you are trying to imply here.

Don't you find it a little coincidental that his top suspects_me and DTF_ aren't lynched OR night killed till the 2nd-last day phase, assuming DTF is lynched.

This makes no sense either. You seem to be assuming the following:

1) that I've been suspicious of you and DTF from the very start of the game.
2) that I could have either of them lynched at any time just because I wanted to.
3) that I am somehow responsible for their not being nightkilled.

Here is why the above are not true:

1) I first expressed suspicion of DTF at the start of Day 2 (since I wasn't online at the time he made his lynch-1 vote on Kard, which was at the end of Day 1). I only seriously considered you as scum from your hammer vote at the end of Day 2, and consequently the start of today. I hadn't established clearly defined suspicions yet when Day 1 abruptly ended. So, your point that I've apparently been after you two the whole game is wrong.

I never said you were suspecting us from the start of the game, if you did, you could have picked kard by mistake.
I was saying that in the game, you only ever had 2 suspicions, me and DTF,

And

why

was that important? At all?

2) Of course I couldn't just have one of you lynched at any time just because I wanted to - if that were the case, DTF would have died a lot earlier, probably yesterday. I'm just one of the players in this game, and it requires a majority to lynch. Sure, I'm trying to persuade people to agree with me, because I agree with me, but that doesn't mean that I am responsible for the fact that neither of you have died yet. In fact, it suggests the opposite - I've been arguing for DTF particularly to die for two game days now, so it's pretty much down to everyone else that he hasn't died yet.

I can't argue with you there, but of course if you were mafia

But of course if I were mafia, what?

3) This is unfair, because you are *assuming* that I am mafia and not including the possibility that I am town. For someone who's put so much stock into this whole "framing" business with regard to the nightkills, I find it ridiculous that you are so narrow-minded when it comes to how you think the nightkills make me look.

There is the possibility that you are town, but it's

your

job to explain why.

Have you not understood what I have been saying

all game

about nightkill speculation?

You're an IC, so if you were mafia, you could hide it pretty well, and I STILL find it strange you were never killed.

Being more experienced doesn't automatically make me a better player. I'm fine with you reading my play in this game and some of my other old games if you like, and judging my ability personally, but it's a lazy argument to say "all ICs must be better at mafia".

1.Practice makes perfect.
2.ARE you more experienced?
3.I

am

lazy.

1. Practice improves. I'm not perfect.
2. Yes, clearly, but it's perfectly possible for a new player to be better than someone who's played for a long time. (I could mention frequent players on this site who are inferior players to those I've seen in this game)
3. Admitting to being lazy doesn't make it right to use lazy arguments.

I did that and found out you're actually probably not mafia.
No, not because of your advice,

Vote Count

ChannelDelibird (3)Kichirou

A mafia doesn't usually vote for it's teammate on the first round.

:headdesk:

A few things:
1) That's a sweeping statement. Do you have any evidence to back it up?
2) In my experience, mafia do sometimes do that. About as often as not, in fact.
3) You seem determined to miss my point. Have you read

my

posts, not Kichirou's votes (though those may be interesting to look at *separately*), and what do you think of them? Do they look like pro-town posts?

My top suspects are you and snow white, and may I add, never once did snow white vote a mafia.

You mean, never once did Snow White vote for a *confirmed* mafia. She may well have voted for the other mafia, but we don't know who that is yet. This is an unfair argument to use on her (and also, I never voted for Kichirou either. We can't both be scum).

I know, It was just something I thought I'd point out.

So you're admitting that the argument is invalid because we don't know who the other mafia is, but you made it anyway? Why? If it's invalid, it's not useful, but posting it has the effect of stirring the pot on Snow White anyway, so that sounds like a good reason for scum trying to get Snow White lynched.

Also, Snow white, for your own good, list all of the possibly scummy things you did, and say why they aren't true. Trust me, the more there are, the less scummy you'll seem.

No, it's not up to her to find what she thinks might be scummy about herself, because she will believe everything she's done is pro-town. You have to tell her what you found scummy, and then she can respond to them.

I disagree with that statement

Tell me

why

I'm wrong. Not just that you disagree. Address my reasons.

but I have the time now, so Snow White:
1. Why do you think the mafia tried to frame you rather than say, CDB?

Jesus Christ! Have you not been reading my posts? Look, I'll quote it again for you:

The only way you can judge whether you think people are scum or not is by finding posts that they've made that are scummy. Not fear of someone's reputation (whether it's earned or not, I'm not going to judge my own ability as a player, that's up to you), not WIFOM based on a million possible reasons why Player X got killed at night rather than Player Y, but actual things they've said and done that are more likely to have been said and done by someone looking to blend in, to mislead the town, rather than someone looking to hunt the scum.

Go and quote some posts that Snow White made that are scummy. POSTS. That SHE made and that SHE can answer for.

2. What proof do you have that you're not mafia?

This is a leading question, because it is asked assuming that she is mafia. I repeat, it is YOUR job to find posts that suggest she is mafia, and HER job to answer your questions about them.

[ChannelDelibird]

Speaking of which, why didn't the mafia kill the little IC?
That's right, I want some answers from you this time CDB.
Don't take it personnally, I'll do it to everyone. It's just to clear false suspicions.
1. Why didn't the mafia kill the IC rather than mejifan, and crazypianist?
2. Why are you so obsessed with killing me and dothefandango?
3. Why can't I think of a third question?

This is actually a good question, but unfortunately, is very much unanswerable. In my experience, it goes two ways IF the IC is NOT mafia:

1. Players who are considered "the best" are usually NK'd by night 3.

2. Or those good players are currently barking up an Townie's tree, and since those "good" players hold so much persuasive power, that Townie is likely to get lynched. So, the mafia spares him.

Yes, it's possible the mafia wants me to lynch DTF. It's also possible, as I've mentioned before, that by leaving me alive they were simply hoping that eventually we would be having this very conversation ("why is the IC still alive? that's suspicious"). As well as a million other reasons.

Is

nobody

listening to me? The

only

thing we can make remotely certain judgement on is POSTS. Things people have said publicly. If there are no scummy posts, there is no case.

Bgg's 1337 sting operation/plan-thing, again glowed newb-town. Newb-town tend to threaten those who pose a threat to them. They haven't grasped the concept of tact just yet. Also, NT tend to theorize mafia connections without considering the WIFOM involved.

I agree with this to an extent (newbie scum also speculates on nightkills and framings because it's easier than scumhunting through analysing posts), but I am not sure who specifically you mean by saying "newb-town tend to threaten those who pose a threat to them". As far as I can tell, bgg's "plan" was about threatening, loosely, "the scum".

That being said, I feel I must defend an aspect of the "Too Townie" argument against CDB. We've all seen games where the last scum won. The one player we were certain was Town. He/she made all the right moves, went after players for their bad logic and even led wagons against their fellow scum. After the game is over, everyone says "Dang, I knew something was up with him. He seemed too town to be a good guy."

NO.

NO.

NO.

Yes, scum can play great games and win without garnering much suspicion, but that CANNOT be the only reason to lynch someone, EVER. There has to be *something* that they have said or done that looks scummy, otherwise nine times out of ten it is genuinely a helpful town player that is lynched.

It's Occam's Razor = the simplest answer is usually the correct one. If somebody has been making pro-town arguments, aggressively scumhunting, asking questions, and generally looking pro-town,

they are probably town

.

So what I'm saying is, while I have no reason to suspect CDB (in fact he is on my tentative pro-town list), I don't think we should dismiss the "Too Townie" fallacy altogether. Lynches should be based upon scummy posts, but sometimes, your gut feeling on a player is on the right track.

You've actually used the word "fallacy" yourself! That alone is a pretty damn good reason to dismiss it.

CDB, what will you do if DTF is lynched and is revealed innocent? I will be going after Snow White if that's the case.

I'm not going to set up tomorrow's lynch before we've seen what happens with today's. As it stands, today, I don't see Snow White as likely scum and it would take a lot for me to change my mind. (There is also the fact that someone will [probably] be nightkilled, and that will reduce the suspect pool)

[CancerBottle]

Speaking of which, why didn't the mafia kill the little IC?
That's right, I want some answers from you this time CDB.
Don't take it personnally, I'll do it to everyone. It's just to clear false suspicions.
1. Why didn't the mafia kill the IC rather than mejifan, and crazypianist?
2. Why are you so obsessed with killing me and dothefandango?
3. Why can't I think of a third question?

This is actually a good question, but unfortunately, is very much unanswerable. In my experience, it goes two ways IF the IC is NOT mafia:

1. Players who are considered "the best" are usually NK'd by night 3.

2. Or those good players are currently barking up an Townie's tree, and since those "good" players hold so much persuasive power, that Townie is likely to get lynched. So, the mafia spares him.

Yes, it's possible the mafia wants me to lynch DTF. It's also possible, as I've mentioned before, that by leaving me alive they were simply hoping that eventually we would be having this very conversation ("why is the IC still alive? that's suspicious"). As well as a million other reasons.

Is

nobody

listening to me? The

only

thing we can make remotely certain judgement on is POSTS. Things people have said publicly. If there are no scummy posts, there is no case.

A sentiment of which I have agreed. Thing is, as scum, I've used the same argument you're using, when people go after me or my fellow scumbuddies for WIFOM reasons.

Bgg's 1337 sting operation/plan-thing, again glowed newb-town. Newb-town tend to threaten those who pose a threat to them. They haven't grasped the concept of tact just yet. Also, NT tend to theorize mafia connections without considering the WIFOM involved.

I agree with this to an extent (newbie scum also speculates on nightkills and framings because it's easier than scumhunting through analysing posts), but I am not sure who specifically you mean by saying "newb-town tend to threaten those who pose a threat to them". As far as I can tell, bgg's "plan" was about threatening, loosely, "the scum".

Sorry, I should have made that clearer. Pronouns FTL. When NT are questioned by another player NT tend to think that the only players who suspect them are scum. Hence the odd "I have secret info I'm going off of" messages. Good point about newbscum, but in my experience, IIoA, which is kinda what you're talking about isn't all that great a tell. I've found newbscum tend to be as quiet as possible, only showing up to vote or make sketchy analysis.

That being said, I feel I must defend an aspect of the "Too Townie" argument against CDB. We've all seen games where the last scum won. The one player we were certain was Town. He/she made all the right moves, went after players for their bad logic and even led wagons against their fellow scum. After the game is over, everyone says "Dang, I knew something was up with him. He seemed too town to be a good guy."

NO.

NO.

NO.

Yes, scum can play great games and win without garnering much suspicion, but that CANNOT be the only reason to lynch someone, EVER. There has to be *something* that they have said or done that looks scummy, otherwise nine times out of ten it is genuinely a helpful town player that is lynched.

It's Occam's Razor = the simplest answer is usually the correct one. If somebody has been making pro-town arguments, aggressively scumhunting, asking questions, and generally looking pro-town,

they are probably town

.

*facepalm*

*facepalm*

*facepalm*

(Actually that does feel good.)

You'll note that I said cases for lynches need to be build around scummy posts.... I also said, the "gut feeling" should not be ignored.

While I'm a big fan of Occam and his shaving implements, you could turn it around and say the only reason why the IC is still alive is because he himself is scum, not a victim of a somewhat elaborate mafia scheme to distract or discredit him. Again, as scum, I've slammed players for such gut feelings, stating they must find more solid evidence. Their feelings about be were correct, but they couldn't find the evidence to lynch me from my posts.

So what I'm saying is, while I have no reason to suspect CDB (in fact he is on my tentative pro-town list), I don't think we should dismiss the "Too Townie" fallacy altogether. Lynches should be based upon scummy posts, but sometimes, your gut feeling on a player is on the right track.

You've actually used the word "fallacy" yourself! That alone is a pretty damn good reason to dismiss it.

It is a fallacy if that's all you have to base your case on. BUT, I've been burned too many times to dismiss the "Too Townie" argument alltogether.

CDB, what will you do if DTF is lynched and is revealed innocent? I will be going after Snow White if that's the case.

I'm not going to set up tomorrow's lynch before we've seen what happens with today's. As it stands, today, I don't see Snow White as likely scum and it would take a lot for me to change my mind. (There is also the fact that someone will [probably] be nightkilled, and that will reduce the suspect pool)

I ask because you seem pretty steadfast on taking down DTF and Bgg. So if DTF is town, it appears you'll still want to go after Bgg.

[ChannelDelibird]

A sentiment of which I have agreed. Thing is, as scum, I've used the same argument you're using, when people go after me or my fellow scumbuddies for WIFOM reasons.

I hope they listened to you.

Bgg's 1337 sting operation/plan-thing, again glowed newb-town. Newb-town tend to threaten those who pose a threat to them. They haven't grasped the concept of tact just yet. Also, NT tend to theorize mafia connections without considering the WIFOM involved.

I agree with this to an extent (newbie scum also speculates on nightkills and framings because it's easier than scumhunting through analysing posts), but I am not sure who specifically you mean by saying "newb-town tend to threaten those who pose a threat to them". As far as I can tell, bgg's "plan" was about threatening, loosely, "the scum".

Sorry, I should have made that clearer. Pronouns FTL. When NT are questioned by another player NT tend to think that the only players who suspect them are scum. Hence the odd "I have secret info I'm going off of" messages. Good point about newbscum, but in my experience, IIoA, which is kinda what you're talking about isn't all that great a tell. I've found newbscum tend to be as quiet as possible, only showing up to vote or make sketchy analysis.

IIoA (Information Instead of Analysis for the uninformed) isn't really my point here. A faulty WIFOM argument isn't information, it's an argument.

You'll note that I said cases for lynches need to be build around scummy posts.... I also said, the "gut feeling" should not be ignored.

Yes, it absolutely should if you have no reason to back it up. Gut feeling comes from things that rub you up the wrong way. If your (hypothetical you) gut is saying "he looks really town...suspiciously so", then you ate something weird for breakfast.

While I'm a big fan of Occam and his shaving implements, you could turn it around and say the only reason why the IC is still alive is because he himself is scum, not a victim of a somewhat elaborate mafia scheme to distract or discredit him. Again, as scum, I've slammed players for such gut feelings, stating they must find more solid evidence. Their feelings about be were correct, but they couldn't find the evidence to lynch me from my posts.

That's not the simplest solution - my whole point here is that

we don't know what the simplest solution regarding nightkills is

, which is why they're highly unreliable as evidence.

And congratulations, you played a great game as scum and deserved to win. That's the exception, not the rule.

I'm not going to set up tomorrow's lynch before we've seen what happens with today's. As it stands, today, I don't see Snow White as likely scum and it would take a lot for me to change my mind. (There is also the fact that someone will [probably] be nightkilled, and that will reduce the suspect pool)

I ask because you seem pretty steadfast on taking down DTF and Bgg. So if DTF is town, it appears you'll still want to go after Bgg.[/quote]

It's possible. It will depend on how the end of the day comes around, who gets nightkilled, what people say at the start of the next day. I intend to keep an open mind and take things as they come. Right now all we should be focusing on is today.

[ChannelDelibird]

EBWOP:

I'm not going to set up tomorrow's lynch before we've seen what happens with today's. As it stands, today, I don't see Snow White as likely scum and it would take a lot for me to change my mind. (There is also the fact that someone will [probably] be nightkilled, and that will reduce the suspect pool)

I ask because you seem pretty steadfast on taking down DTF and Bgg. So if DTF is town, it appears you'll still want to go after Bgg.

It's possible. It will depend on how the end of the day comes around, who gets nightkilled, what people say at the start of the next day. I intend to keep an open mind and take things as they come. Right now all we should be focusing on is today.

[dothefandango]

I don't get why all the heat has been removed from Snow White, bgg. I did it to avoid her lynching me, but you unvoted her AFTER she voted for you. She isn't in any sort of clear as far as I can see.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'll ask you the same thing I asked bgg, DTF: go and quote me some of Snow White's posts that were more likely to be made by scum than town.

[dothefandango]

I'll start with Occam's Razor:

Meji Fan died first night, only one to vote for Snow White.
CrazyPianist died second night, Snow White had heavy suspicions of him all along.

Then we get into her saying things like this:

Its not an overt explanation to me because i know im innocent so logically someone was trying to frame me by killing Meji.

I don't see that as a "logical" explanation. It's just as easy for her to kill Meji say that than for a scum to kill Meji. The two are equally logical.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'll start with Occam's Razor:

Meji Fan died first night, only one to vote for Snow White.
CrazyPianist died second night, Snow White had heavy suspicions of him all along.

Okay, let's play along with this ridiculous speculation for a moment: what would Snow White-Scum gain from killing CrazyPianist?

Then we get into her saying things like this:

Its not an overt explanation to me because i know im innocent so logically someone was trying to frame me by killing Meji.

I don't see that as a "logical" explanation. It's just as easy for her to kill Meji say that than for a scum to kill Meji. The two are equally logical.

It's logical for

her

to say. She's naturally going to only see it from the POV of her being town. I don't really see why this is indicative of scum.

So your case on Snow White is one post that she made, in which she takes as read that she is town. I'm not impressed.

[ChannelDelibird]

Also, if they're

equally

logical (I would use the word 'similarly', but I agree), it's not Occam's Razor.

[Snow White]

Ill put this simply.

Meji for whatever reason came in and immediately did not like me. I was the only person on her scumdar for a remark i had made in contradiction from when i was replaced in. And if anyone wants the remark ask, and i will provide it.

As the only person on her scum list i thought immediately after she had been NK'd the focus would be on me the next day so i explained myself before scum could leap in.

I simply said it was logical for me to think that because i know my role. You dont and i understand that but if you keep pushing me and going back to how insulting you were i know in myself im likely to hammer you out of anger if someone else hasnt removed their vote.

@DTF. You removing your vote from me is nothing. As far as im aware you still have 2votes on you. I could still hammer and as yet i havent. I dont mind you trying to put a case on me but you certainly seem convicted after CP was killed i would be day lynched. And i did feel quite attacked. So why wouldnt i further try to defend myself.

@CB you suspect me because of DTF's Occam's Razor or is there actually something i can answer to? Or is DTF's post 337 all there is. A second post i made trying to explain my innocence.

Btw

You're trying to force a play on Snow White. Don't do that. When it comes out that I am town, you have NO ONE but yourself to blame. If you were scum, you would be smart enough to realize that this sort of persecution can only lead to your demise if I am a townie. Everyone is following YOUR lead. This is on your head man.

Is in far contrast to

I had hoped that Kichirou's guilt would get you off my case and realize that Kard's voting process was a joke, but I guess not.

Vote: SNOW WHITE

Let's end this.

My thoughts on who is scum is in the following order:
1. bgg1996. You left enough to threaten you had a pro town role. I said as much DAY1 and was surprised but pleased you had not picked up on it. Today, DAY3 you also left a threatening post that you had some higher knowledge. Which was a lie. You apparently had some plan that makes no sense in my eyes because DAY 3 YOU VOTED FOR ME. AND HOW WOULD YOU HAVE KNOWN THAT ON DAY 1? - Caps in case it failed to garner your attentions.

2. Atm. I cant decide whether i just dont like you and your attitude to me. But i dont like the way you've gunned for me so vehemently and vigourously. And i dont see what exactly your post in 335 means. You complained at the beginning, there was no action for you to wonder about. Now you seem unable to comprehand the action being taken. Im inclined to accept Cancer's thought that you are a newb town but i still amnt sure of you.

3. ChannelDeliBird. I appreciate you sticking up for me(really i do). But you do not know im innocent. And as playing this as scum in another forum ive often stuck up for innocents under threat of a lynch. This is all. In other words i think you've acted favourably to the town and i think your top suspects are well as good as mine.

4. CancerBottle. I see inactivity as townie signs. Maybe its because the last game i played was so much faster. This is really a whole new realm for me. He's posted what i consider to be his genuine thoughts.

Of course these are my thoughts and they are only thoughts. And shouldnt be taken as gospel if i happen to be killed.

[dothefandango]

Also, if they're

equally

logical (I would use the word 'similarly', but I agree), it's not Occam's Razor.

THe last example was not OR, but a suspicion I had.

[ChannelDelibird]

No, Snow White, I don't *know* you're innocent. However, I think you are *probably* innocent because you've not made scummy posts, plus my two top suspects are flinging bad cases at you. I won't make your defence for you if they come up with an actual reason to suspect you, but I will always object if they keep pushing this crap one.

[Snow White]

Well then, thank you CDB.

[bgg1996]

CDB, will you please post everything that you can find scummy about me, so I can disprove it and help find the scum? Thank you in advance.

[CancerBottle]

A sentiment of which I have agreed. Thing is, as scum, I've used the same argument you're using, when people go after me or my fellow scumbuddies for WIFOM reasons.

I hope they listened to you.

Note that they shortly lost the game to the mafia thereafter because I condemned them for listening to their gut instinct.

IIoA (Information Instead of Analysis for the uninformed) isn't really my point here. A faulty WIFOM argument isn't information, it's an argument.

My mistake then, I was under the impression IIoA extends to theorizing about set-up and speculating the motives behind NKs.

You'll note that I said cases for lynches need to be build around scummy posts.... I also said, the "gut feeling" should not be ignored.

Yes, it absolutely should if you have no reason to back it up. Gut feeling comes from things that rub you up the wrong way. If your (hypothetical you) gut is saying "he looks really town...suspiciously so", then you ate something weird for breakfast.

Gut feelings should provoke a player to dig deeper. If a player's posts rub you the wrong way try to figure out why.

While I'm a big fan of Occam and his shaving implements, you could turn it around and say the only reason why the IC is still alive is because he himself is scum, not a victim of a somewhat elaborate mafia scheme to distract or discredit him. Again, as scum, I've slammed players for such gut feelings, stating they must find more solid evidence. Their feelings about be were correct, but they couldn't find the evidence to lynch me from my posts.

That's not the simplest solution - my whole point here is that

we don't know what the simplest solution regarding nightkills is

, which is why they're highly unreliable as evidence.

And congratulations, you played a great game as scum and deserved to win. That's the exception, not the rule.

If the question is "why is the IC, the most experienced player, still alive" then the simplest explanation is that player is still alive because he is mafia. Anything else requires something more elaborate on the mafia's part. You'll notice that I didn't involve myself in the NK analysis after nights one and two. I feel there's too much WIFOM involved.

Erm, not really. When half of the players suspect you're mafia, I don't know how great that is. What I did was I asserted a certain type of evidence was completely invalid and refused to accept it.

It's possible. It will depend on how the end of the day comes around, who gets nightkilled, what people say at the start of the next day. I intend to keep an open mind and take things as they come. Right now all we should be focusing on is today.

Fair enough.

...

Ill put this simply.

Meji for whatever reason came in and immediately did not like me. I was the only person on her scumdar for a remark i had made in contradiction from when i was replaced in. And if anyone wants the remark ask, and i will provide it.

Um, no.

Okay, there are 3 people I am currently going to look at again since I think they must be interesting, 1, and most interesting, Snow White, due to FatedLunar's post 54 of this thread, the sort of non committal nothingness that sets off bright neon warning lights

As for post 54, that post was open to any and all possibilities, supporting none of them, lets see which way the wind blows and make vague comments. The sort of scummy post that leaves everything open

I like where my vote is

@CB you suspect me because of DTF's Occam's Razor or is there actually something i can answer to? Or is DTF's post 337 all there is. A second post i made trying to explain my innocence.

While the "frames" are odd, that's not why I suspect you.

Anyway, during the night phase, I took some time to re-read the thread. Way back when during the Great Kardwagon, I noticed this from Snow White:

CBD appears innocent because he has not a vote on Kard. But equally this could be WIFOM. And yet you continue to tunnel CancerBottle for his additional questions. You seem rather defensive CBD but i think this is just because your an IC and trying to get conversation started for the minute.

I don't see how CDB defending himself against what were gravely misguided suspicions is suspicious. Granted, these were only initial observations, but I find it odd that Snow White didn't post more about the strength of my argument against CDB, but rather that CDB is being "defensive." It seems like she was "storing" an argument for a later vote. Now, I realize I accused CDB of doing the same, but I think there's a stronger case of that "storing" here.

CDB has 3 votes on him.

2of the people have been fading from view and i think they had just bandwagoned to get things moving.

Neither of them have had much explainations to their votes and

i would like an explaination from Kirichou's "CDB's vote was random"

and bgg1996 "he's suspicious" before i vote for either one of them. They could have been plain old townies who just got bored after trying to rush the game along.

If they bandwagoned to "get things moving," then it seems like it would be best to bring them back into view. Notice, how Snow White doesn't ask for more explanation from Kichirou the Goon or Bgg, only more explanation before voting for either of them. Also, what more expanation were you expecting from Kichirou, Snow White, besides, "it was random"?

I agree with snow someone was trying to frame her and push the magnifying glass away from them self so who was the person who had suspicions placed on them last round? Kard and Crazy we know it wasn't the Kard so that leaves Crazy and what do you know snow was voting for him.

Well, the above post was made by scum, and implicates a known townie.

What do you think Snow White? Another frame?

Snow White doesn't ask for more explanation from Kickirou the Goon or Bgg, only more explanation before voting for either of them

what is it you are hoping for me to explain about that?

It looks like you're trying to avoid voting for either of them. As if you're worried you'll be forced to cast a vote for either of them.

EBWOP (which I'm making now): It seems like you want someone to make a case against Kichirou or Bgg before you will vote for them

To which you respond:

At this stage the person i was most adament was scum just flipped town. Im not that sure i want to vote for anyone else and have it blow up in my face if im not voted ooff today.

But the part I'm refering to was during the Kard lynch.

[CancerBottle]

CDB, will you please post everything that you can find scummy about me, so I can disprove it and help find the scum? Thank you in advance.

This about sums it up.

Way to miss my point. I thought your vote on Kichirou was for terrible reasons (abandoning your supposed real suspicion for the sake of the game moving on) and looked like you might have been throwing your scumbuddy under the bus. This is independent of DTF.

[bgg1996]

Man, this post took a long time.

CDB, will you please post everything that you can find scummy about me, so I can disprove it and help find the scum? Thank you in advance.

This about sums it up.

Way to miss my point. I thought your vote on Kichirou was for terrible reasons

1.(abandoning your supposed real suspicion for the sake of the game moving on)

2. and looked like you might have been throwing your scumbuddy under the bus. This is independent of DTF.

If that's his only reason, then I'm not sure what to think.

But, I'll answer it using my own logic

and

CDB's.

CDB's Logic:
1. If I'm not not finding scum, I probably am scum, but if I were scum, then I would know that kichirou was scum, therefore, I wouldn't be abandoning my true suspicions, because I would know kichirou was scum. You're logic is flawed.

2. 4 people voted her, and none of them had any more chance of bussing than the other. This is a non-argument.

My Logic:
1. If I didn't, someone would, and it sure wouldn't have been the scum who switched to their buddy, you would be barking up the wrong tree AGAIN, and the scum would profit greatly,

or

the game would end.

2. Anyone who voted kichirou could have been bussing her.


----------------------------------

You are hypocritical.

The only way you can judge whether you think people are scum or not is by finding posts that they've made that are scummy. Not fear of someone's reputation (whether it's earned or not, I'm not going to judge my own ability as a player, that's up to you), not WIFOM based on a million possible reasons why Player X got killed at night rather than Player Y, but actual things they've said and done that are more likely to have been said and done by someone looking to blend in, to mislead the town, rather than someone looking to hunt the scum.

1. There are plenty of reasons why this could be the case (though as I've said repeatedly this game, though, trying to figure out the scum's thinking on the nightkills is murky WIFOM territory): for example, it's quite possible that I've been left alive because the scum were hoping that someone would make exactly the post that you just did, implicating me. It's also possible that for whatever reason the scum thought Meji or CP might be threats later, or that they thought they could frame someone else by killing those particular people, or that Meji looked at them a bit funny, or that the scum have an irrational hatred of people whose usernames end in 'pianist'. There are a lot of possible reasons, and we have no way of deciding with any certainty at all which is the more likely.

And you're logic is flawed

This doesn't make sense. You didn't know bgg was going to just hammer to get on with the game, and if you did, the pro-town move would have been to not allow him to do so. It's quite plausible that you could have been bussing Kichirou, in order to use exactly this argument ("look, I got a mafia lynched! I

can't

be scum!") to make people think you're town.

Actually, he

did

know, because I told him I would.

You read the post, you even posted about it.
You allowed me to do so as well. You could very well have been stacking the votes in such a manner, that it would be inevitable that someone would switch, so you could make this very argument.





You

do

have scummy posts

CDB, what will you do if DTF is lynched and is revealed innocent? I will be going after Snow White if that's the case.

I'm not going to set up tomorrow's lynch before we've seen what happens with today's. As it stands, today, I don't see Snow White as likely scum and it would take a lot for me to change my mind. (There is also the fact that someone will [probably] be nightkilled, and that will reduce the suspect pool)

It sounds like you're trying to limit our investigative skills, as well as the following quote, and many others.

You've actually used the word "fallacy" yourself! That alone is a pretty damn good reason to dismiss it.

Not to mention ALL of the times you told us not to judge based off of NKs.



You admitted to being mafia yourself.

I, ChannelDelibird, am proclaiming, that I, am mafia.

Just kidding

[ChannelDelibird]

If the question is "why is the IC, the most experienced player, still alive" then the simplest explanation is that player is still alive because he is mafia. Anything else requires something more elaborate on the mafia's part.

Only if you assume that I am the default nightkill target, which I don't think is necessarily fair.

Erm, not really. When half of the players suspect you're mafia, I don't know how great that is. What I did was I asserted a certain type of evidence was completely invalid and refused to accept it.

That type of evidence

was

invalid, and if they couldn't find any actual reason to back it up, then you

did

play a great game, because while their guts were acting up, they couldn't justify lynching you.

I'll have a look at your Snow White stuff after I respond to bgg's post.

[ChannelDelibird]

CDB, will you please post everything that you can find scummy about me, so I can disprove it and help find the scum? Thank you in advance.

This about sums it up.

Way to miss my point. I thought your vote on Kichirou was for terrible reasons

1.(abandoning your supposed real suspicion for the sake of the game moving on)

2. and looked like you might have been throwing your scumbuddy under the bus. This is independent of DTF.

If that's his only reason, then I'm not sure what to think.

But, I'll answer it using my own logic

and

CDB's.

CDB's Logic:
1. If I'm not not finding scum, I probably am scum, but if I were scum, then I would know that kichirou was scum, therefore, I wouldn't be abandoning my true suspicions, because I would know kichirou was scum. You're logic is flawed.

It's entirely possible that you could have hammered Kichirou as his scumbuddy - it buys you cheap points with the town and avoids having to follow through on your "true" suspicions. If you'd had a reason to vote Kichirou, any reason at all, I'd not be giving you a hard time for it, but you had

no valid reason at all to vote for him

. "I wanted to move the game on" is not a pro-town reason to hammer anyone, even scum.

2. 4 people voted her, and none of them had any more chance of bussing than the other. This is a non-argument.

If you remove the vital element of the content of their posts, sure. I'll admit I found the Kichirou case somewhat flimsy and I think we got lucky with the lynch, but you were the only one to vote him without ANY semblance of a reason. That plus it being the hammer vote means you were more likely than the others to be bussing Kichirou.

(Don't get me wrong, right now I still think it was DTF who was bussing and you were just making a really bad vote, but there's not much in it)

My Logic:
1. If I didn't, someone would, and it sure wouldn't have been the scum who switched to their buddy, you would be barking up the wrong tree AGAIN, and the scum would profit greatly,

or

the game would end.

This assumes you are town, and it's impossible for me to reason with such bias. "I know I'm town" does not show why you were more likely to make that post as town than scum.

2. Anyone who voted kichirou could have been bussing her.

See above.

You are hypocritical.

I'm interested to see where you're going with this.

The only way you can judge whether you think people are scum or not is by finding posts that they've made that are scummy. Not fear of someone's reputation (whether it's earned or not, I'm not going to judge my own ability as a player, that's up to you), not WIFOM based on a million possible reasons why Player X got killed at night rather than Player Y, but actual things they've said and done that are more likely to have been said and done by someone looking to blend in, to mislead the town, rather than someone looking to hunt the scum.

1. There are plenty of reasons why this could be the case (though as I've said repeatedly this game, though, trying to figure out the scum's thinking on the nightkills is murky WIFOM territory): for example, it's quite possible that I've been left alive because the scum were hoping that someone would make exactly the post that you just did, implicating me. It's also possible that for whatever reason the scum thought Meji or CP might be threats later, or that they thought they could frame someone else by killing those particular people, or that Meji looked at them a bit funny, or that the scum have an irrational hatred of people whose usernames end in 'pianist'. There are a lot of possible reasons, and we have no way of deciding with any certainty at all which is the more likely.

I don't see the hypocrisy here. First quote is me asserting yet again that we can only judge on posts, not WIFOM based on nightkills. Second quote is me showing how arbitrary nightkill speculation is. I'm not discounting any possibility in the second quote, just showing that there are loads of equally plausible possibilities that make it impossible to work under any assumption regarding nightkills.

And you're logic is flawed

This doesn't make sense. You didn't know bgg was going to just hammer to get on with the game, and if you did, the pro-town move would have been to not allow him to do so. It's quite plausible that you could have been bussing Kichirou, in order to use exactly this argument ("look, I got a mafia lynched! I

can't

be scum!") to make people think you're town.

Actually, he

did

know, because I told him I would.

I'll go and check that again, but if so, that's another strike against DTF for putting Kichirou at lynch-1 in that knowledge, and it makes your behaviour, regardless of alignment, even more reprehensible.

You read the post, you even posted about it.
You allowed me to do so as well. You could very well have been stacking the votes in such a manner, that it would be inevitable that someone would switch, so you could make this very argument.

Can you explain your context here with quotes? I'm not sure what you're referring to.

You

do

have scummy posts

CDB, what will you do if DTF is lynched and is revealed innocent? I will be going after Snow White if that's the case.

I'm not going to set up tomorrow's lynch before we've seen what happens with today's. As it stands, today, I don't see Snow White as likely scum and it would take a lot for me to change my mind. (There is also the fact that someone will [probably] be nightkilled, and that will reduce the suspect pool)

It sounds like you're trying to limit our investigative skills, as well as the following quote, and many others.

What? Consider this, bgg: there is exactly one scum left in the game. Therefore, if we lynch that scum today, there will be no tomorrow because we will have won. Therefore, we should be concentrating on finding the scum today and winning rather than assuming we're going to lynch town and just plan for failure. And tell me, exactly what investigation skills am I limiting by saying that?

Not to mention ALL of the times you told us not to judge based off of NKs.

YES! YES, THAT'S EXACTLY IT! I've explained a million times how it's impossible to judge based off nightkills, and now, rather than even trying to understand, you're just going to throw it back in my face, saying that it's scummy, without explaining why I'm wrong, which is what you need to do in order to make it scummy?

I urge you to read Being a good IC, which is the wiki document that governs my play in this game. It urges, quite rightly, that as an IC I give advice regarding tactics

impartially, as truthfully as possible

, even if I am scum, and that is exactly what I am trying to do. I am speaking about nightkill speculation as an IC, and I would be saying it even if I were scum.