Ortolan wrote: Jahudo- the thrust of what I was saying is that he instantly jumped to the conclusion "either the mafia is repeatedly trying to kill the same person or are no killing".
I didn’t jump to the conclusion, I said: “There are other options, some discussed so far, some not, but those 2 seem by far the most likely to me.” This very obviously means that I considered the other options and came up with what I thought are the 2 most likely. You are misrepresenting something I was very clear about.
Ortolan wrote: Why could a no-kill not result from the doctor protecting two different people the mafia targets consecutively?
Odds, not only would the doc have to correctly guess the target yesterday, but then guess that after having blocked 1 kill, that the scum would change target, and THEN correctly guess AGAIN who the new target is. Yeah, that’s sooooooo much more likely than the doc realising he was protecting a scum target and sticking with it. There are other options, but I thought they were even less likely.
Ortolan wrote: Sure it's subject to WIFOM of the doctor changing their targets, but it's incredibly uncommon.
So the doc would be stupid to stay on the same target, but scum can obviously work out that the doc will change target so they can stay on the same target? Wow, you’re tying yourself in knots.
Ortolan wrote: Plus, of course, how did he know the kill wasn't going through today/yesterday (depending how you classify)?
I made my big assumption about 24 hours before deadline, and you think I’ve made a huge assumption?
Ortolan wrote: I am curious as to what ulterior motive you believe I have for bringing this up.
Rolefishing, plain and simple.
Here’s a quick rundown of what you’ve done today/yesterday:
You advocate a no-lynch, saying that we should give scum the next kill.
You then attempt to out someone you think is a doctor
You then ‘hammer’ the no-lynch, ensuring that you can now change your target ‘tomorrow’.
This all looks incredibly dodgy to me. The idea that you would advocate giving scum the next kill with no real resistance, then deliberately try and give them a power-role target is absolutely mind-boggling.
No, I won’t claim today, no matter what I am, it would be possibly the stupidest thing in the world to do. You can’t analyse and get a lynch based on my claim, you’ve hammered the no-lynch, all it gives is scum more information. There is no ‘slip’ that I’ve made unless you ignore the qualifying parts of my post.