DHSDSM beta: Game Over.

[ortolan]

you meaning J-Scope

[Saunt Adelaus]

Hello kids! Rumours about my death have been greatly exaggerated.

Final Votecount for day 5:

No Lynch:

4

:J-Scope, Poke-the-Alpaka, Ojando, Ortohoops

not voting:

3

:Frog Dodging, nyballosulgniirkps, Zaphod Beeblebrox,

while 7 players are alive, 4 votes will lynch

It is now Day 6. You have 14 days from this post to come up with a lynch. With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

[ortolan]

massclaim massclaim massclaim

[Jahudo]

I don't care when I claim or how we do it.

[ortolan]

imo popcorn style

that's 2 votes out of 7, we just need 4 really to begin

[nyballosulgniirkps]

Let's do it.

[Ojando]

Mass-claim at this stage is a mistake. The entire reason we no-lynched was to have 1 less player in lylo. Mass-claiming now will probably achieve that, at the expense of losing a power-role. We should mass-claim, but only once a kill goes through or once we agree that no kill will go through.

At the moment, if we mass-claim, we really can't get a lynch before scum kills, so all that the mass-claim pre-kill accomplishes is giving scum more information for the kill.

Ortolan, you are completely aware of this, I'm sure of it. You realised that no-lynch was the best option, you've obviously considered our options. You trying to force me to claim is also a fairly obvious attempt by you to set up a post-scumkill lynch. You force me to claim, scum kills someone else, you say that since I didn't die my claim obviously must be false. Setting this up at any time is bad enough, doing it now, in lylo, is either really really stupid, or the actions of scum, and I don't think you're stupid.

Orto, you were happy to give some strong reasons for the no-lynch, why are you giving absolutely none for the mass-claim? And why are you guys blindly following along? We can still mass-claim later today, doing it now is BAD for town.

Having thought about the possibly motives behind Orto's actions, and just how anti-town they are, I'm convinced he's scum. I'm still happy to await a scum-kill and mass-claim before voting etc though, they should come in that order though.

[JDodge]

Sorry folks, I completely forgot I was supposed to catch up and post in this game while Shanba is on vacation. Be back soonish!

[Jahudo]

Orto's case right now looks contradictory to this:

I am very strongly of the opinion that you need to be putting forward a hypothesised actual scum-pair now. If we restrict ourselves to making individual scum-cases it's just another way the two scum can easily exploit "behavioural tells" on a townie and therefore end-game. I dislike behavioural tells over actual "links to scum" tells in general though.

His case on ojando looks absolutely like a behavior tell and does not link to any other player that I can see. It is some players scumhunting approach to speculate publicly on power actions.

All I see is that Ojando speculated on what was going on with power roles. I cannot see how even as scum or doc he would have had inside information at that point, because he would not have known whether or not a kill was stopped. So to me it is clear that Ojando could be any role, or just a VT.

I think we need an alpaca and a goofball to either say Yea or Nay to massclaim.

[Jahudo]

EBYOP: The only way scum-Ojando would know his kill was stopped is if he sent it in at the start of the day (during that 11 day period between July 10 and July 21.) For some reason Ojando did not post once in that time period and only ojanen was posting in other games during that week. Any reason?

Also, to reply directly:

Why could a no-kill not result from the doctor protecting two different people the mafia targets consecutively? I would see that as way more likely

How is that more likely? I don't think we can quantify either in terms of likeliness because that depends on alot of variables we do not know. So I think all speculation is equally not very productive or conclusive until maybe after massclaim.

also, I don't see why; if the mafia target someone and get no kill on that night, they would ever target them again the next night. Sure it's subject to WIFOM of the doctor changing their targets, but it's incredibly uncommon.

How is it uncommon if you say its WIFOM? That means there's a guessing game between scum and doc where a better choice is not easily made.

Thus the fact that he says "the mafia is repeatedly targeting the same person" implies to me he is either the doc (in which case he is still jumping the gun) because he knows he targeted the same person on two consecutive days, or he is the scum that submitted the kill. Plus, of course, how did he know the kill wasn't going through today/yesterday (depending how you classify)?

The doc would never know he protected correctly the first no-kill day for multiple reasons: Maybe there's a third doc? Maybe there's a RB? If Ojando is the doc, he's still speculating about the first day just like a doc could only speculate about the second day because the day was not over and the mod was V/LA.

If he is scum and unless he had killed between July 10 and 21, he would not know whether or not the kill went through. I definitely think scum could speculate there, but not definitively more likely than a townie.

If Ojando had killed between July 10 and 21, I personally feel that they also would have been active in this game to start setting up lynch options if/when their kill went through.

[ortolan]

Mass-claim at this stage is a mistake. The entire reason we no-lynched was to have 1 less player in lylo. Mass-claiming now will probably achieve that, at the expense of losing a power-role. We should mass-claim, but only once a kill goes through or once we agree that no kill will go through.

On reflection I agree with his.

You trying to force me to claim is also a fairly obvious attempt by you to set up a post-scumkill lynch.

Ok firstly I'm not trying to get you to claim outside of the context of a massclaim. Also I don't understand this point. Are you saying I am trying to force you to claim because I know your claim will be scummy and we will be able to lynch you after I put the scum-kill through? Even if I was scum and you were town I wouldn't know in advance that your claim was going to be scummy, so I simply do not understand what point you're making here except possibly that "my claim is going to get me lynched", in which case, I laugh (at the scumminess of this assertion).

His case on ojando looks absolutely like a behavior tell and does not link to any other player that I can see.

True. That doesn't mean I can't see him being scumbuddies e.g. with you.

EBYOP: The only way scum-Ojando would know his kill was stopped is if he sent it in at the start of the day (during that 11 day period between July 10 and July 21.) For some reason Ojando did not post once in that time period and only ojanen was posting in other games during that week. Any reason?

Wait, I'm not sure I understand this but are you saying that because Ojando didn't post in this game he can't have put a kill through? I should hope not.

Why could a no-kill not result from the doctor protecting two different people the mafia targets consecutively? I would see that as way more likely

How is that more likely? I don't think we can quantify either in terms of likeliness because that depends on alot of variables we do not know. So I think all speculation is equally not very productive or conclusive until maybe after massclaim.

You've taken my quote entirely out of context. I wasn't seeking to discuss which was the more likely, I was questioning Ojando's initial assertion that it was likely the doctor protected the same person twice in a row, which I see there being no basis for.

How is it uncommon if you say its WIFOM? That means there's a guessing game between scum and doc where a better choice is not easily made.

Again, this is all in the context of wondering why Ojando made the assertion he did.

If Ojando had killed between July 10 and 21, I personally feel that they also would have been active in this game to start setting up lynch options if/when their kill went through.

You think Ojando is town?

[Jahudo]

EBYOP: The only way scum-Ojando would know his kill was stopped is if he sent it in at the start of the day (during that 11 day period between July 10 and July 21.) For some reason Ojando did not post once in that time period and only ojanen was posting in other games during that week. Any reason?

Wait, I'm not sure I understand this but are you saying that because Ojando didn't post in this game he can't have put a kill through? I should hope not.

I'm asking Ojando if they have any reason for not posting in that time period. I do not think that their absence omits them from being able to kill.

You've taken my quote entirely out of context. I wasn't seeking to discuss which was the more likely, I was questioning Ojando's initial assertion that it was likely the doctor protected the same person twice in a row, which I see there being no basis for.

I agree with you that his speculation looked baseless if made as a townie, but I still think some townies say these things.

You think Ojando is town?

Based on his speculation I do not get any strong feeling one way or the other. I had a concern about him in another area, but it does not link to any other player as of yet. So I'm more than all right with keeping the spotlight on Ojando, but I just want to talk about his other posts.

[Ojando]

On reflection I agree with his.

I’m calling BS on your ‘reflection’. You’d thought about the status of the game enough to insist on a no-lynch, but you then didn’t think through the implications of a mass-claim while doing exactly what you wanted by no-lynching? Yeah right.

Even if I was scum and you were town I wouldn't know in advance that your claim was going to be scummy, so I simply do not understand what point you're making here except possibly that "my claim is going to get me lynched", in which case, I laugh (at the scumminess of this assertion).

You’re scum, you get me to claim, you kill someone else, point at me and go ‘look, he didn’t die after claiming power role, clearly scum’. It looks a lot like you trying to set up a post-scumkill lynch.

Again, this is all in the context of wondering why Ojando made the assertion he did.

I made it pretty clear why I made the assertion, in fact, I made it pretty clear in that same post. My 2 ‘scenarios’ are the most likely in terms of odds, no matter what I am. Saying ‘these are the 2 most likely options’ is a tell of some sort if I’m using powerole/scum information to come to conclusion not supported by what town knows, but I’m not, so it’s merely me being right, and anyone can be right.

I'm asking Ojando if they have any reason for not posting in that time period. I do not think that their absence omits them from being able to kill.

I’m confused, are you guys looking at June? July 10-21 went like this for us:

We posted July 13th, 15th, 18th, 3 times on the 19th and 21st. There were posts from both me and my partner.

During a similar period in June I don’t think we posted, but are those dates relevant for kills etc?

[PokerFace]

Hey guys. I ain't read exactly all of what has been said today. I spend time on mafia games mainly when I am home from work and neighbor just recently turned his wi-fi back on at this time of day. Don't know what he's been doing but I'll hopefully get back up to speed before it goes off. At any rate there are 2 things I want to ask.

@one of those voting for mass claim, why today in a sence of what do you think will be accomplished now as apposed to waiting for later?

@Claus/Saunt Adelaus, what exactly is meant by Strike One in the game title?

I'll try to catch up on today's stuff and state my thoughts on players comments and or questions tomorrow. I'll see what orto said to my last question and see if perhaps nyball will have an answer to my previous question I directed at nyball

[Saunt Adelaus]

"Strike One" means that you should avoid no-lynching/no-killing, else you might see yourself into a "... and everyone lived happily ever after", which means all teams lose.

[Saunt Adelaus]

bump.

[ortolan]

I’m calling BS on your ‘reflection’. You’d thought about the status of the game enough to insist on a no-lynch, but you then didn’t think through the implications of a mass-claim while doing exactly what you wanted by no-lynching? Yeah right.

ONCE we've established a scum-kill isn't going to happen and/or we agree on a massclaim (which entails that anyway), we can massclaim.

You’re scum, you get me to claim, you kill someone else, point at me and go ‘look, he didn’t die after claiming power role, clearly scum’. It looks a lot like you trying to set up a post-scumkill lynch.

Ok, I see what you were accusing us of now. However, we/I never wanted you to claim in isolation anyhow, it was only in the context of a massclaim (as I already stated).

My 2 ‘scenarios’ are the most likely in terms of odds, no matter what I am.

No they aren't. In any game I've been in as scum will not target the same player twice in a row if they don't die on the first night.

[Zaphod Beeblebrox]

I'm alright with a massclaim.

[Jahudo]

Who wants to go first?

I'm going to have limited to no access for a while soon. see sig.
I'll see if K-Scope can replace me

[Zaphod Beeblebrox]

I can go first.

Vanilla.

[ortolan]

"

I want Ojando to go next

[ortolan]

that means I'm also vanilla if it wasn't clear

[Ojando]

Fine.
Doc.
Targets:
Death the hogfather protected Yosariwen pre-game.
Second phase(=day 3) we protected PtA. After sex club had flipped scum PtA seemed unlikely to be mafia, sex club's adamancy in getting them lynched did not seem buddy behaviour. A&B had flipped sk, now also Trosky; we didn't see space for PtA scum anymore. We also considered Frog who felt townish but were somewhat wary of them having survived without our help the A&B kill.
(That's why I finecombed that chain of events and questioned some stuff about their posting history here and here.)
For day 4 the same thought process re: PtA still applied; didn't see space for PtA scum and this was a general feeling in the thread. This is the day that no kill went through.
Before day 5 we thought the kill was taking a long while to come and we might have a confirmed innocent due to protection, but couldn't be sure until after Zmd's lynch scene and next dawn. Protected PtA again for next day.

Day 5 after Frog said doc should breadcrumb target, I first did this in a hurry, entering PtA scrambled as apt twice in the post using the word slightly strangely.

Gah, summer. I'm

apt

to being V/LAish currently but I'm trying to get a substantive post up later today or latest tomorrow. Traveling isn't friendly to mafia.

Guys, what do you mean by this?

Look at the number of SKs, mafia; look at the number of kills.
If SKs don't submit a kill, someone is chosen randomly by the mod.
This mechanism doesn't appear to apply to mafia.

So unless wishbone stopped kills, or scum tried to kill the same people at the same time, its possible that a massclaim will answer why there were no kills in previous days?
Still we don't know which kills were from which scum. This looks like further reason for a RB claim at the least now.

I'd think the situation would be pretty obvious regarding the kills that happened:
Mafia killed Incamnito, Trotsky killed SWSWC and A&B tried to kill Frog Dodging but hit RW's protection. Second time mafia killed Yosariwen, sk's were lynched already. Yesterday mafia failed to kill: either they hit a protection or a block (though I'd think a RB would have claimed already) or then suffered from general organizational in

apt

itude, I'd think.

I'll get back to you soon.

Came back next day and there was a natural way to be able to breadcrumb; we made sure we didn't call anyone else townish that day.

I know it's working backwards, but I see no compelling reason to let nyballs live one more day.

It is extreme. I think PoketheAlpaca is town. Everything else is a blur. Nyballs in particular seems disenganged. Maybe to the point of forgetting to send in a kill?

PtA seems townish to me too

, but you seem to be jumping to supporting a lynch in mylo on someone you previously didn't express suspicion of because ýou think the case comes from town.
The "maybe forgetful" argument seems a little funny: if there's a doctor, it seems you would want to draw him out now instead of tomorrow or then not be interested in seeing if there's a claim at all. I'm not sure you even checked nyball's activity, cause looks like he posted when Zmd was L-1.

The second part of your post is a misunderstanding: the quote is from me and directed towards nyball.

And there's no reason for me to tell who we protected today.

[Ojando]

Nyball next.

[ortolan]

so tell me why I was wrong/scummy to say "you are either scum or the doctor"?

I was right wasn't I? (I may yet be right about both; or just the scum part)