/in-Vitational Game 5, Simon Mafia 2: Game Over before 832

[Elmo]

Isn't petroleumjelly confirmed too?

vote Battousai

[Elmo]

HI NUWEN

I don't see a persuasive reason to claim anything, yet. What's your sig about?

[Elmo]

I dislike the fact that Patrick's exposition only came AFTER his two word vote post..

Why are you commenting on this in particular? I haven't explained my vote, for example.

I keep forgetting when the deadline is for. D'oh.

[Elmo]

Am behind. Will catch up by tonight. Also, see sig :V

[Elmo]

Hi Patrick. Hi Gurgi.

Cawt up.

Mod

: Are there killing roles which do not require entering a person's room? Does "this includes killing roles" in Special Rules #4 mean that all killing roles require entering a person's room?

Patrick: I figured there was a double standard. I was a little surprised, but I guess it makes sense in retrospect.. I don't really draw a distinction between random voting and slightly-out-of-the-random-stage voting.

Do we all agree that if there's an unclaimed town bellhop, he needs to move fl to green?

The Bellhop Role PM says "If more than one person tries to move a particular guest to a new floor on the same night, the computer will disregard those commands, the guest will remain unmoved". So, um, no.

We got chronic invitational syndrome. Fitting, but in addition to being busy, I'm terribly uninspired and not really helping. I'm considering saying we shouldn't be lynching Danny, because that wagon's been going for a while, and no-one seems interested in an alternative.. but there's been like half the game voting for someone with only their vote on. We need to wagon a bit. Deadline now scares me, because this will be like the least informative day evah.

FL is probably town, yeah. I cannot shake the feeling that PJ is certain to have foreseen the plan and therefore we're (at best) not getting an advantage from it. But I don't know; it's possible he foresaw exactly this, and we're required to do it not to be at a disadvantage. Owell less' find out.

Also- LG/TDC: I'm totally lost on what just happened between you.

This...

That.

[Elmo]

I'm back, but I still don't have any meaningful opinions - I'm halfway through rereading now. Feel free to ask me questions, or so? I'm still struggling to find anything interesting, that's the problem. (I don't think my stance on DDD was bad, although maybe I didn't express it well because it was late.)

[Elmo]

@LF: Well, generally if a scumbag's getting wagoned, their buddies tend to try and start a wagon on someone else, especially early on when wagons don't need much to get started, but no-one really seemed interested in trying. (My reasoning here is kinda like JDodge's in Open 55.) But for example, if Zaz and Danny happen to be scum (with 3 scum total), the single leftover mafioso isn't going to have much influence on the voting patterns. So the more it looks like no-one would be wagoning regardless of alignment, the harder it is (or less reliable) to tell why scum aren't wagoning.

..I think this makes sense.

[Elmo]

Translation: I'm back, but I have no stance since I already know who all the townies are and I can't find anyone doing something scummy enough to frame

If you've

just stated

that no-one's doing anything scummy enough for me to decently attack them if I was scum, why do you think I'd act differently as town?

Well, let's get it over with.

unvote, vote ZazieR

for not being me. Bed, now.

[Elmo]

So do you consider it inevitable that either you or Zazier will be lynched at this point?

Very probably, yes. (at

forbiddanlight

also:) I don't currently think anyone else has a worthwhile case, so votes go on whichever bandwagon is popular. I think the current vote count justifies that opinion.

Pop quiz: If there really are mad awesome "this person is scum" cases out there, why is "omg lurker lynch" getting this amount of traction? The Battousai and Gurgi wagons had absolutely nothing behind them. This is basically a semi-random lynch, which (given the lack of info) is the logical move; I just think anyone seriously claiming I'm scummy is daft.

That's a long way of saying "they could be scum or town." I want to know what you personally think about DDD and Zazie.

I was pointing out something specific so that other people could comment on it, so I don't see anything wrong with the fact it doesn't come to a definite conclusion on his alignment. Rereading Danny, I guess his frustration with LF looks genuine. His dislike of ZazieR is unfounded beyond lurking. Done not a lot else; I'd lean town, but shruggo. On Zazie, there's nothing to look at beyond the random stage, which I didn't get anything out of. I thought the Danny vote was fine. Null.

[Elmo]

forbiddanlight: The only game we've ever been in together, I was

hugely

unhelpful. You have given absolutely no reason why I'm unlikely to act this way as town, merely pointed out that I would as scum. ("Elmo would breathe as scum, Elmo is breathing, therefore Elmo is scum".)

Patrick: Unfounded means based on poor reasons. That is an opinion on the wagon, but it doesn't tell me anything about the alignments of the people involved. I don't consider that a useful opinion, and I'd probably be attacked more for IIoA if I posted it. (shrug)

What exactly characterises my "complete failure to look for scum"?

If the majority of people can get reads, then you certainly can.

Why? That's a pretty bizarre statement.

[Elmo]

In this game you've done nothing.

Second time: Why am I unlikely to do this as town?

[Elmo]

So DDD is town because lack of a different wagon appeared when it was dancing the line between random and semi-random?

That was my idea. I didn't like it, because it's hard to tell here why the other wagon didn't appear.

Even if you have weak reads, especially at a time like this you need to put them out and at least attempt to explain them. I do not buy that your scum list is neutral-everyone, and thats it.

Okay.

[Elmo]

PYP3.

<_<

[Elmo]

(@LF: Okay to the second part. I get that you don't buy it, and I'm not really inclined to argue.)

FL: Playing differently can be caused either by a different alignment or different circumstances. Why do you think alignment is more likely? Why do you think I would behave like this as town?

[Elmo]

Here, alive, reading. This game kills me. Every time I begin trying to follow posts here I zone out and end up reading the same sentence half a dozen times with no significance.

Same. :V

I can't see a lot of point to keep posting here?

[Elmo]

Righto.

[Elmo]

And you honestly think a competent scum player would so blatantly ignore the game and draw attention to himself through non-contribution.

Yes. Absolutely.

There's like two or three parts. Before V/LA, I didn't do very much. Then I went on V/LA without any strong reads, came back, still don't have strong reads.

[Elmo]

I think it's fair to say that I have a meta for not being interested / involved very early on in Day 1. My last game was Mini 792 - Tofu Mafia, for reference. This also fits pretty exactly with my play in BSG up to the point I decided a gambit was called for, incidentally. And Crackers D1, and probably some others.

Nuwen, do you think I should have played scum and just faked suspicions of some random people?

[Elmo]

Patrick: In Satin Doll, I was genuinely V/LA, though. I told you that post-game. "Lynch Elmo if V/LA" probably isn't a good play? (Glork was essentially right to complain about the wagon, seeing as it was started by scum and was 50% scum at lynch, imo. But we debated that already <_<)

You don't need to fake suspicion to pull information out of people, which is what I consider the goal of Day 1.

Mmm. That's not what I asked, though.

As to Day 1: it varies. I think that I mostly skim it (ie actually read it) but make empty motions until something "interesting" happens that I can get involved with. In BSG, I kinda intentionally started a wagon on myself out of boredom. >_>

Are you even TRYING?

I imagine I'm very trying.

Good times.

[Elmo]

Considering how hard it was to reach 4 votes on Elmo in the first place, I do not suspect we will have this issue.

It looked pretty straightforward from where I'm sitting. :J

[Elmo]

I think two wagons that are close together can provide us with information on how people decide to vote.

I don't want to put words in his mouth, but this was in the voting post.

I think Nuwen is more likely to defend me in that manner as town. I acknowledge it's a kinda textbook scum manoeuver, tho. LlamaFluff, I don't think you got round to explaining your vote for me..?

[Elmo]

I'm curious why Nuwen drew heat for defending me, but Gurgi's "I don't like to lynch Elmo in general" thing went mostly without comment.

[Elmo]

Not as vehement. I did notice it, just never thought about things in the scum defending town perspective

I think if a lightning bolt struck me and I flipped scum near Gurgi's "I don't like to lynch Elmo as a general thing", he'd (understandably) be dogpiled. I think it makes considerable sense from "scum staying off popular town wagon near deadline", as well. I'm just curious why something less vocal seems to get less attention, given the push against lurkers.

After this evening I'm less comfortable with the idea that Elmo is scum

In the name of all that's holy, why?

[Elmo]

TDC, if I'd died and flipped scum, what would you think about Gurgi? Nuwen?

[Elmo]

I guess I'm obligated to point out that, if I'm town and Patrick can read me, he'd probably have swung round to defending me, and would therefore make a good kill. (shrug)

Elmo, where and why is the line of questioning coming from?

There seems to be a double standard, and I'm curious where it comes from. There isn't really a specific why.

SpyreX / Goatrevolt: What specifically do you dislike about Nuwen's play?

The defense of Elmo was hyperfocused and completely ignored the equal sized Zazie wagon, yet Nuwen's stated rationale was to avoid lynching a lurker/non-contributor, which should have applied to both.

In particular, this is not what I got out of her posting. I think there is a fairly obvious difference between someone who is pure-lurking and someone who says "yes, I'm here, I don't have much to contribute", and that she referenced that e.g. in 496. I haven't found a stated argument from you two, but I guess it revolves around TownNuwen not having sufficient confidence to defend me like that? I'd like to know, anyway.

The point is that, at least in my mind, Nuwen identified some set of behaviour, hypothesised about my alignment and then acted on it. Gurgi's posting didn't seem to be affected by or really reference my alignment. Now, it may be personal bias on his part because we're friends, but I'd nonetheless think an average townie is less likely to defend someone without a read of some kind. It's also notable that Gurgi's comments were more low-key and therefore probably got the best of both worlds, in that it didn't reduce the chance I'd be lynched. So I am having a hard time seeing an objective argument why Nuwen is worse than Gurgi.

Gurgi: You said I was helpful as both alignments. What scum games of mine did you base that on?
SpyreX: Would you go for a Gurgi wagon?

[Elmo]

I'm pretty pro-NK speculation. Mostly because it pisses me off when I wail on a scumbag, get killed, and everyone is like "oh WIFOM". Danny, what scum motive does he have?

None really. I just figured. When I played with you last it didn't seem like anything you said had anything to do with your personal interests.

What does that actually mean? I was town last time. Whilst I agree that my town and scum play look perfectly identical and it's totally fruitless to try and read me, it's no fun when people don't try.

The method and timing of jumping to your defense + the rest of the play. I wish I could quantify it better but being on the low end of contribution and then hard-lining on you to drift back into nothingness is blah.

What is "the rest of the play"? My interpretation was she showed up for the deadline and slouched off again... I don't really see the dislike.

[Elmo]

It's sometimes quite useful. I don't think it's hugely useful here, since Patrick is a good kill regardless.

Less probable that FL, Goat, or Gurgi would want Patrick dead, as a player that has marked you as townie is an asset.

Danny, you don't think this is true enough to be even slightly useful? I really can't see this kind of analysis as intrinsically scummy.

Also, SpyreX: you remember last game, with me and Artem? How the specific defence itself different, apart from her pattern of activity?

vote tdc

[Elmo]

Are you the new Fluff, or is there anything behind this?

Not really.. I figure everyone else seems at least slightly townish.

I'm not sure why this game is like slogging through molasses.

Oh, oh, I know, I know!

[Elmo]

Why?

[Elmo]

Yes, but why is it annoying? Do you think it's undeserved, do you think I'm incorrect, do you think my reasoning is wrong?

[Elmo]

Restated: Do you think my opinion that everyone else is more townish is undeserved? Do you think I'm incorrect that everyone else is more townish? Do you think my reasoning that if everyone else is more townish than you then I should be voting for you is incorrect?

[Elmo]

TDC, I think you can comment on whether you agree with my conclusions without knowing the reasoning behind them. Not undeserving would simply mean that you thought it wasn't unreasonable for me to conclude what I did. Incorrect would mean, I suppose, that if you were in my place, you'd come to a different conclusion. I don't think you really answered either.

What bias do you have looking at your own play? Why exactly would your "towniness shine through"? What do you mean by "a weak line of scumhunting", and why's that bad?

Nuwen. I really don't know who else at this juncture. Since we have 28 pages of NOTHING.

Weren't you fairly bloodthirsty for me taking the same stance?

Battousai, why do you think I'm trying to lynch TDC?

[Elmo]

Also, deadline is in like 2 days, 20 hours.

People who don't especially want Nuwen lynched, who would you actually like lynched instead? Who still actually cares who we lynch if it's not them?

Mod

: Can you prod Nuwen? Thanks.

[Elmo]

Why lynch Llama?

[Elmo]

Again, how would I EVER come to the conclusion that everyone but me is town? How could I possibly agree? That just makes no sense whatsoever.

I dunno, that's got nothing in common with what I asked you - why the strawman? I asked you if you thought my conclusion was unreasonable, and I asked if you'd come to a different conclusion in my place. My stated conclusion was "everyone else seems at least slightly townish". I really don't think I'm being preposterous here.

Why would scum they be doing a better job than you? Are you more prone to think a behaviour is more townish if you know it comes from town-you, or what effect does the bias actually have? Why would would people randomly "notice you're town"? I mean, how does that work - why would they reasonably draw that conclusion? Why is my attack weak? What is bad about it being a weak attack?

[Elmo]

I'm saying that voting me on the basis that everyone else looks town is ridiculous.

Why? I mean, you've agreed with my reasoning assuming everyone else is slightly townish. I don't see why it's ridiculous.

I don't think everyone else is town and you're refusing to tell me why I should.

I'm not going to tell you why you should, because I don't think you (necessarily) should. I really don't mind what you think, one way or the other.

Nuwen is slightly townish for defending me, I think she's at least slightly less likely to do that as scum. Batt is slightly town for gut plus his vote near the end of day 1 plus his recent comments about you. SpyreX is very slightly townish on pure gut... I go back and forth on that. Danny is slightly townish for the frustration. Goat isn't slightly townish, but I don't want to lynch him because he came up with that plan and how it pans out probably reflects on his alignment.

No matter what you think about me, but if you think 8 people are slightly townish, scum are playing pretty good no matter what, or you suck as badly as I do.

I'm missing something. That doesn't answer the question, and I don't take your point about my play. At maximum I'm slightly right about five people and slightly wrong about three.

I know I'm playing to the best of my ability. Every single post of me screams town, if I read it.

So you'd guess there's generally a disjoint between your perception of your posts and other people's perception?

I sometimes notice people are town. Should work the other way around, too.

But you notice based on specific things, not posts like "hi im here" or so. It follows you should have some idea what kind of thing is likely to result in people noticing, and then have some idea of whether you've posted it or not.

It is weak because it relies on your read on eight other players. I thought that much was obvious.

Why does that make it weaker, though?

I'm not suggesting it is bad as such. Just annoying and makes me wonder why, if you can't find something at least remotely plausible, you bother at all.

Why annoying, though? And I don't follow the latter; why is it implausible, and would you seriously prefer I didn't bother at all?

[Elmo]

I think I'm obligated to

Curiously, Fluff doesn't seem to be bothered by your lack of suspicion as much as he was by mine.

Two days untill deadline of D2 is way to far into the game to have that big of a question mark by anyone.

..?

[Elmo]

Unless I'm missing something, I still have yet to hear an argument as to why Nuwen's position on me wasn't justified. Why is she less likely to do that as town?

While I think of it, Gurgi dislikes Fluff because he's not trying to dissuade Gurgi from voting him.. I would have thought TDC's response would be earning him town points with Gurgi, but he seems to be somewhat negative towards him. Why, pray?

It's funny because instead of doing little for 10 days and scrambling maniacally when everyone shows up for deadline, we could just have 96 hours deadlines and do comparably well.

[Elmo]

I vaguely recall debating this with Elmo in mafia discussion at some point, though I could be wrong).

Yeah, I was gonna

unvote

at some point soon. I wondered if anyone would jump on it.. I'm not fond of Fluff's move here. Battousai is interesting in the refusal.

Nuwen has posted in GD and been on AIM, I think. Not reading anything into that, personally. Battousai should probably also be on the town list fwiw. The case against Nuwen is interesting... I'm pretty curious why I'm on the list, to be honest.

TDC: I think I have a most a very weak bias when looking at my own play; obviously I have special knowledge about myself that other people don't, but beyond that I don't think so. I think I'm probably slightly scummy all told, but interpretation can swing it around a lot. (There are any number of complicated things to say here, but it's not rly worthwhile I guess.)

[Elmo]

Ya, it's just ultra unclear who the non-Nuwen lynch is. We have.. 42 hours?

The reason I find Nuwen suspicious is her defence of Elmo yesterday. I'll elaborate on it more when Nuwen gets here/I have more time.

I think this would probably be good if it's not QFTing Goat.

[Elmo]

I should probably reread it, but: I think if I were to defend someone, I'd throw out whatever arguments might work, including "irrelevant reasoning" that had rhetorical value. I also think that "who are Elmo's partners" is okay in general, although it probably isn't valid in that situation - I don't think you could draw links between anyone and me at that point.

If her intention was to save you, she would have voted Zazie. If her intention was to stop a lynch on an inactive/lurker, she would have pushed people to vote elsewhere. Neither of those happened.

This is the bit that interests me. I think it's quite tough to find a viable non{me,Zazie} target at that point, but I generally agree that defend person X without pushing person Y is a tell. It's just a big unclear how she pushes a Zazie lynch while arguing against people wanting to lurkerlynch me. Occam's razor suggets "Zaz lurked more", but I'm not sure that would have much weight with e.f. Forbidden at the time. I dunno, what's a stronger line to take against Zazie than she did? What do you think about her point in that last sentance of 539? That looked at least a little relevant.

I guess the thing that gets me is her not voting for Zazie at any point. I did notice that at the time, chalked it up to absence iirc, but it is weird. Enough to make the case interesting and Nuwen not a ultra-horrible lynch, albeit not really one I'm enthusiastic about. This is where I mention rereading and how it never gets done. Yup.

I think I'm slightly scummy because I haven't done anything I'd consider townish, and (around the time when you asked) relatively little obvious effort to acquire reads on people. I think the way I didn't do anything but defend myself and refused to give reads when I might have been lynched Day 1 is more than a little reminiscent of scum not wanting to give anything away in the event they're lynched. There's no particular explanation of why I played the way I did day 1. I think my behaviour towards TDC is null if not slightly scummy... hard to exactly put my finger on why. I'm probably forgetting some stuff, I'm heading to bed soon.

Because you seem to legitimately care about who we lynch, and seem legitimately interested in finding scum.

I really don't see how that's true.

For all this, I still have a question mark about Gurgi, and to a lesser extent SpyreX. I keep going back and forth on the both of them.

[Elmo]

It boggles the mind.

Maybe you can see why I'm unhappy with "Elmo would ___ as town" arguments.

you seem to be the only player actively doing anything.

But I got wagoned yesterday mostly for "not doing anything". I have a clear incentive to look like I'm doing something, which was one of the reasons why I talked to TDC. And I don't think that from the perspective of starting that interchange it holds any particular promise of actually being productive, indeed TDC was/is probably legitimately fed up because it was going nowhere. I don't see how that adds to my town credentials at all.

I didn't think your lack of anything end of day 1 was you trying not to tie yourself to scum buddies.

You don't have to think that. Specifically, you don't have to think it's the likeliest explanation; it can be very unlikely for that to be true, but I don't think you'd assert there's a 0% chance it's the reason. Say, 95% of the time when I do that, it's not related to alignment. As long as there's a small chance I did it because I was scum, and it doesn't reflect on my alignment if I didn't do it specifically because I was scum, it should be slightly scummy. (I'm sure you can follow my reasoning.)

If it wasn't the real rationale behind your actions, then doesn't it stand to reason that we as a town should be able to determine that it wasn't your real reason?

No, in fact I feel the direct opposite applies for some actions (not necessarily mine). I don't see why it stands to reason, though, towns very frequently get it wrong. In fact, given most scumtells are tendencies, you may be able to accurately say I'm scum 90% of the time when I ___, but even that level of correct analysis leads to the wrong conclusion 10% of the time.

You're speculating poorly on why you think others should find you scummy and then wondering why I don't believe said speculation?

I don't know why you say it's poor. I don't expect you to believe it (?), because you have a different set of views to me; I just think some things are mostly inaccurate. As to self-evaluation, other people's views have followed pretty much exactly what I thought they'd be. You would expect people to be biased towards the truth, so I kind of doubt thinking I'd be slightly scummy to my own eyes (as it were) implies bias. (shrug)

It'd be fine to postpone this until tomorrow, though. I'll convince my scumbuddies not to kill you.

[Elmo]

Llama is staying, right? Coolies. I want to know where Gurgi and Battousai stand on, like, everyone. Also, FL, I think I asked a question or two yesterday? Ta.

vote Lord Gurgi

is a good direction, I think..

[Elmo]

Nuwen. I really don't know who else at this juncture. Since we have 28 pages of NOTHING.

Weren't you fairly bloodthirsty for me taking the same stance?

[Elmo]

[Elmo]

On another note it was just pathetic that both Elmo and TDC weren't voting at the end of the day.

Why?

[Elmo]

Explain what better? You haven't asked me to explain anything.

[Elmo]

If you thought the Nuwen lynch was a good one then you should've been behind it and voting, if you thought it was a bad lynch then you should've been voting someone else trying to push your own candidate or find a viable alternative.

And this lynch should fit clearly into those two categories? I thought it was dubious at best, but not outright terrible. I did think she was mildly townish, and I said so at the time. If you would have liked me to do one or the other, then you should have talked to me at the time and we could have discussed it, instead of you informing me of your preferences well past the point where I can do anything about it.

And I am

not

going to defend Nuwen, either directly or indirectly by pushing a counter-wagon for the purposes of a counter-wagon, without a reasonably strong town read on her.

[Elmo]

If Nuwen wasn't scummiest to you then someone else was, it's a simple and truthful binary equation.

It is neither simple nor true that a single person is scummiest to me, because a group of people may be, and were.

And you showed either no confidence or interest in pushing a wagon for information or attempting to get them lynched based on your read.

Agreed. Therefore..?

Well, you haven't reacted to my vote or claims. I want your opinion on what I said.

You said that you find not voting at the end of the day scummy; I don't agree. You said you thought I'd be more likely to argue with Goatrevolt if I was scum. I don't know the truth of that.

It shouldn't have to be discussed. Do you tell every player, 'Make sure to scumhunt'? No. Because they should already know.

I don't even agree that it's true, much less that it's obvious. Why is it true?

Assuming that I should "just know" to do stuff is a great way to end up in this situation - you think I should have done it, I don't, and somehow I have done something wrong, despite having no way of knowing what you wanted me to do. If you wanted me to do it, and I was not doing it at the time, why do you wait until this point to say anything?

[Elmo]

Why exactly should I 'know' this?

[Elmo]

Yes, I should have done that previously. I guess I haven't got a lot out of it, I only voted you because I wanted to have a vote out and I'm slightly paranoid about the idea of people buddying up to me; I think you're a bit more townish than I used to, though I guess I can't really justify that. I didn't have a plan beyond "see what happens", really. I don't think it's rude, and I think it's fine to be a bit rude if you feel the game demands it, regardless of who it is

As to LlamaFluff, the way people defend themselves varies. Some people think it's pro-town to let the wagons happen in hopes of drawing out more info, some people think it's anti-town to have any votes on a townie. I mostly side with the former, but the latter makes sense, especially with a certain playstyle. I guess the thing that interests me was the point early on, that he disliked the setup discussion (as did I) but didn't really try to spark discussion.. I guess I'm WIFOMing myself about that more than I did previously. It's hard to tell the difference between simply not trying and wanting to, but not finding a viable way to make an attempt. That said, I probably should have wagon'd LF before.

unvote, vote LlamaFluff

- wherefore art thou, anyhow?

As to Danny, I honestly can't remember where or why you suspected him. I should probably mention that I don't want to lynch forbiddanlight, but I'm not at all convinced she's town on the basis of e.g. 807.

I'm practically certain that Elmo is town

I can't help being a little curious, but maybe it'd be better for everyone to just leave it alone?

[Elmo]

I thought the defining feature of a policy lynch was lynching to a policy (e.g. lynch all self-voters) as opposed to lynching because they're scummy.

Battousai, for TDC specifically, amortized over all possible games it might be scummy, but why is it scummy in

this

game? Who should he have voted?

[Elmo]

I disagree, but I don't really want a theory debate, although I'm willing if you insist. The default reason for lynching is because ___ is scummy, so stating another reason (policy) implies it isn't that, to me, and a fair number of people will support policy lynches without asserting they're more likely to hit scum.

Battousai, how do you know that he is not trying to find scum?

[Elmo]

Goat: Yes. No. Okay.

[Elmo]

Gut, Spy?

[Elmo]

Mmm. I thought of TDC, but it turns out I was thinking of you on Gurgi... I looked back now. Why do you think Goat is town?

[Elmo]

SpyreX, why do you want to hammer?

Llama, can you give any reasoning behind any of the reads? Like, one of LG and TDC being scum. I just want to hear what you're thinking, really.

GoatRevolt could easily be scum here and tbh the people who seem to believe otherwise scare me. I figured I'd say that since no-one is talking much about him. (Honestly, I'm reconsidering my conspiracy theory from Day 1 with Goat + FLight as scum while telling myself it makes no sense.)

This is irritating because I have like one single tiny towntell on most people and I'm chasing my tail trying to decide which to follow. I should really have checked in earlier and decided what to do, I think it's fairly inevitable that fluffy gets lynched at this point. Derp.

[Elmo]

Anyone could be scum. Do you have reason to believe I'm scum?

I meant exactly what I said, that you could easily be scum, not that I have any particular reason to think that you are. People like SpyreX are discounting the possibility, and I don't like that. I'm not attacking you, just

- it's too damn easy for one person to look helpful and slip through

I really don't like you pushing to try to get people away from reading me as town while likewise not actually presenting any points against me yourself. It feels like I'm being set up.

How exactly would I be setting you up?

This reads as your disappointment in LlamaFluff being the likely lynch. This is a bit interesting considering your current vote on LlamaFluff...

I don't see how. It's irritating because my read on him isn't significantly different from my read on most other people, my original vote was bandwagoning, and I meant to check in between then and now but I don't think I did.

I'm also not a fan of how the wagon's going; I actually considering unvoting and voting SpyreX in that post, but like I said, it looked/looks fairly inevitable, though, so meh.

I'm really second guessing my earlier town call on Elmo.

I told you so

[Elmo]

Yay for posting without previewing. I'm not attacking you, I'm just wary of the fact that people who are active, make sense and post a fair amount tend to not to be examined in any great detail - it's too easy for one person to look helpful and slip through without anyone seriously thinking about whether they're scum. And you've done basically nothing that I think you wouldn't do as scum, probably nothing that I think anyone competent wouldn't do as scum.

Elmo, you seem mighty interested in removing the idea that I'm town from everyone's mind

Why am I "mighty interested"? I think I said pretty much one sentence in one post, thus far.

[Elmo]

You don't see how that post reads as you expressing disappointment with the LlamaFluff lynch?

No, I don't, it's what I said it was.

No, this is not an excuse. If you unvote, TDC and Fluff will be tied in votes. If you voted SpyreX he would also be tied in votes. I refuse to accept this as valid.

I thought he was on four, and I don't/didn't expect anyone to show up and care before deadline. Shrug.

You pushed SpyreX on it earlier today, and then brought it up again today. Looking at how many relevant posts you've made today, it's been a fairly prevalent topic for you.

I asked him why he thought you were town. I wanted to know if he had a decent reason. How is asking someone "Why is __ townish" anything to do with trying to remove that idea from their mind?

Gurgi: I don't have any convincing reasons to think Fluff is town.
Battousai: I didn't claim it was inevitable, I said it looked/looks inevitable. I didn't think enough people would shift their viewpoints away from Llama.

[Elmo]

Gurgi, why exactly are you railing on him for voting the other candidate at deadline when I did precisely the same thing with ZazieR day 1?

[Elmo]

Goat, I don't believe you're town. I also don't believe you're scum. I have never had a town read on you, and never had a scum read on you. I think you would have done pretty much exactly the same things as either alignment. I just want people to actually look at your play and think about it, rather than you being a "blind spot". If SpyreX had been able to give me what I considered a decent reason, including "gut", to think you were town, I'd have been fine with it.

I actually thought his response was kind of scummy, fwiw.

[Elmo]

Elmo, That would be a good question if it wasn't you asking it. This is why I think you're town and he's not. If anyone else had brought that up, I might think more of it, but that you were the first one to vocalise the connection only strengthens my opinion.

Sorry, what? I don't see how that answers the question at all. You were strongly against him, just now, for doing something that I did on Day 1. And I'm pretty sure you were defending me on very general meta grounds if that, and definitely didn't have any kind of read on me then. So why wasn't it scummy when I did it?

[Elmo]

Yeah. I don't think that's a decent reason at all. It actually worried me slightly more, since mechanics stuff is an way to "look town" without doing stuff that actually necessarily helps the town. It's entirely possible that his plan will never benefit us at all. I don't particularly believe that's true, but it's certainly possible, and that's pretty much being overlooked, as far as I can see.

[Elmo]

Well, let's get it over with. unvote, vote ZazieR for not being me. Bed, now.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 70#1835570

[Elmo]

SpyreX, #2 isn't right, I don't think it makes you scum. And I didn't say I outright didn't believe you, I just think it's a bit (slightly?) more likely that you'd have better reasons as town. I didn't put much faith in it, so I dropped it.

[Elmo]

The only one I can find is roughly a week before deadline, and you weren't even a real candidate at that point. I assume I'm just not looking properly. Because if that is the one, then it's rather massively different, just because of how close the deadline is.

Obviously I at least felt (and feel) I was a real candidate, otherwise I wouldn't have voted. And it is not at all different. It makes it slightly

worse

that I did it before deadline if anything, because Fluff's hand is essentially forced, whereas I could have happily held off but didn't. Either way, it's very very much self-preservation in your terms. You have a double standard, here.

[Elmo]

Lock: Green

and that Elmo has a bad feeling about it but isn't doing anything against it

I said nothing resembling that

This is me being shocked about where Gurgi's vote is right now. There's no way I'm voting Danny over Fluff, and I thought TDC was a bit townish when talking to me similar to Goat, so vote stays. I'm not sure how I'm supposed to be distancing myself from this lynch when I haven't said anything bad about it? This is a little silly; I should probably just have lurked out the deadline, obv.

(apparently seemed and are, are totally different for Elmo)

Durr?

[Elmo]

I would like to lynch either Gurgi or Elmo today. They are the two with the worst stances in regards to Llama, who I think is more likely town than scum at this point.

This has nothing to do with you thinking I'm being all devious in your direction?

[Elmo]

One is that there were two people content to let the wagon go while not being happy about it. Screams mislynch.

If one of these is me, this is wrong and pretty much in direct opposition to what I posted.

[Elmo]

Questioning the hammer is not how someone acts toward a wagon they are fine with.

That's pretty weasel-worded. I asked why he wanted to hammer, I didn't object to him doing it.

Questioning Llama for reads, suggests that you are not sold to the wagon.

How does it suggest that?

Calling a wagon "fairly inevitable" suggests a mentality that you are unhappy with the wagon.

If you actually read my post, that is right after I talk about not showing up to decide what I wanted to do. The decision's been made for me, as far as I could see.

I'm also not a fan of how the wagon's going; I actually considering unvoting and voting SpyreX in that post, but like I said, it looked/looks fairly inevitable, though, so meh.

Self-explanatory. Really.

Well, no. I considered switching my vote, and didn't. What I didn't like about it was (I'm going from memory) that it seemed like a bunch of people showed up and tossed votes on without having a particularly good reason to suspect him. I thought Danny's vote was pretty bad.

Saying I am "not enthralled" with it is probably literally true. I think it's the best wagon at the moment.

[Elmo]

I think it's ironic that you criticised me for thinking LF's lynch looked inevitable and then say that it is pretty much 24(?) hours later. I also think it's ironic that if you're feeling conspiratorial, it makes far more sense for you to be setting me up (with town Llama) at this point than vice versa. I dunno why you think I'd want to try and get you lynched tomorrow as opposed to some lower hanging town fruit considering the state of people's opinions. But whatever.

I do find Gurgi's behaviour around Llama weird. We only need three to lynch - how'd you like it if you and me voted Gurgi, now? I don't have a strong preference between the two, but no-one wanted to wagon him previously. I remember thinking he was a bit off a while ago, but I don't really know why.

[Elmo]

Nope, four hours 44 minutes. Until 10pm Central Daylight Time.

[Elmo]

Blah, I hope that wasn't obviously fake.

unvote, vote Lord Gurgi

for now?

Anyone?

[Elmo]

This is hilarious if Goat basically gave up and wandered off and now we're all sitting here going "But who do we lynch???"

[Elmo]

The majority of the town was content to sit back and do relatively nothing, which game us plenty of opportunity to take control of the game.

How'd you feel the scum had control of the game?

I dunno exactly what to say, I suspect no-one wants to hear it.

[Elmo]

I dunno, I would have happily resigned this on night 1. It's more of a town loss than a scum win; I don't think the scum did horrible, but they didn't really have to do much beyond not play jester. And people thinking Goat was town is just depressing, literally. I just give up.

Also, lol at people metagaming me. That's pretty much 100% of people who tried that have failed. I was playing different, I mix up my play a lot, durr? I decided that whatever game I played next, I'd experiment with playing a lot more passively than usual, maybe I got unlucky with the game I picked but what happened is pretty depressing. I can't possibly believe that it all falls apart without me, but I dunno what the hell happened. I'm not sure how I would have played apart from that, maybe tried to get Gurgi lynched Day 2, meh. Would probably have lost anyway, though, so at least I saved some effort.

Elmo: I feel the scum had control of the game because the town sure didn't.

Eh, that's pretty weird reasoning. I don't think either side had much control. Town was apathetic and you had influence over, like, SpyreX or so.

The town really needed someone to step up and lead.

I don't agree. The town just needed to do stuff, you don't need any leader for that. We had pretty much three lurker lynches in a row, and I don't really object to any of them because no-one put a viable case out there.

I have no idea about the setup. It was close to what I thought it would be, and didn't/don't see how town can get much advantage from it, but I wouldn't say it's hugely imbalanced either way. But then I'm optimistic about vanilla games, so.

[Elmo]

Because you didn't push for my lynch on meta grounds, or what, exactly?

[Elmo]

Complaining about people considering me town but not actually considering me scum or doing anything at all to push for my lynch is pretty meaningless.

"People" was me, as far as I can remember. I'm not sure what point you're making here - believing you were town was really bad. I agree it probably wouldn't have changed the outcome if everyone was neutral on you, if that's what you mean, but it's a bugbear of mine. It just mystifies me how people can get it that wrong - there is literally nothing you did that it remotely townish.

It's not weird reasoning at all. Any game where not a single scum player is under threat of being lynched at any point during the game is fairly scum-dominated and scum controlled.

So in a hypothetical game where scum have no influence over the lynch beyond their own votes, but they're under no threat of being lynched, they have control of the game? How does that work? You can pretty much define control as being able to dictate what happens, and they can't do that.

As for the apathy argument, I argue some or most of the apathy was a result of the town not having a clue. I think my scum buddies both played a good game and made it difficult to easily peg them.

Town started getting apathetic like a week into the game. It was effectively lost maybe a couple of days before Night 1. Your scumbuddies played competently, which was sufficient to outplay the town, that's about it. I don't think they played a good game; I just don't see what you think the scum did that brought them the win. Again, we had 1-2-3 lurker lynches, it's not like the scum actually needed to do anything.

This isn't sour grapes, I do think the scum outplayed the town, and I do think the side that played the best won, and I'd be the first to say so if I thought you guys played really well, but the town pretty much rolled over for you here. I probably contributed to that by being absent for a good part of Day 1, which was caused by stuff coming up unexpectedly - which is pretty much bad luck in itself. (shrug)

[Elmo]

Eh, this really sounds like a hindsight thing to be honest.

No, I said pretty much exactly that at the time. You complained about it, remember?

If scum aren't in danger of being lynched, they are in the driver seat. {..} Simply being considered town is sufficient control.

Those are different things, though. Scum can be no danger of being lynched without being considered town, and indeed sometimes while being considered fairly scummy if other townies are being scummier. The fact that they're not in danger of being lynched doesn't mean that they caused it. If town never lynched lurkers, and all the scum were unexpectedly V/LA, then they're almost certainly not being lynched, through no virtue of their own, and yet they have exercised no control over the outcome of the game.

Whether or not the game was 1-2-3 lurker lynches (Llama really wasn't a "lurker" lynch, and neither was TDC, but that's beside the point)

Llama was at minimum nine tenths of a lurker lynch. From memory, most of the votes on that wagon were largely due to lurking, and I seriously doubt he'd have been lynched if he wasn't V/LA.

the fact is that not a single town player at any point in this game had any kind of a good lead on who was scum. That right there pretty much says it all.

I don't know why you think that's an indicator of good play when you would be hard pressed to find a single town player who was seriously trying after Day 1, if that. Personally, I was tempted not to defend myself on Day 1 and hope I got lynched so I wouldn't have to play out the rest of the game. I played the rest pretty much purely out of a sense of obligation and dropped that somewhere on Day 2; I don't think I reread the game once. Most other people seem to have done similar. If it wasn't obvious, my attitude to Llama was because I literally didn't care who got lynched that day. People weren't looking, so it's wrong to claim that you must have hidden well because they didn't find you.

The scum generated mislynches, avoided taking the blame for them, and got townies lynched.

What mislynches did the scum generate? It's possible you were all incredibly subtle and I missed it, but I think town would have lynched pretty much the same people if scum didn't influence them at all (beyond not playing jester, if you want to say that). We had a lurker lynch, a lurker/"Elmogate" lynch pushed primarily by townies (SpyreX & FLight at least, I think Danny might have been in there too), a 95%-lurker lynch, and then LyLo. I didn't read what happened in LyLo, but it should have been a fairly easy win from there considering the previous days.

This was done in an invitational game against quality players.

This wasn't an invitational, and I'm not going to debate the quality of the players (since I can only really disagree by insulting people) but the quality of the

play

was bad. You can say that Nuwen's a good player, but when she's outright apologising for her play after the game, I don't think you can say that performing better than her in this game is an achievement.

What were suboptimal plays the scum made and why didn't the town jump on them?

I don't think you (plural) played optimally, but more than that, playing optimally against a town doesn't necessarily require playing well. If the town decides to lynch people at random, then optimal play is simply to agree and go along with it. That's pretty difficult to

lose

, let alone requiring any level of play to win.

I guess I'm curious, have you ever been apathetic or part of a very apathetic town? Maybe you don't understand how anyone could actually take that attitude, since it's alien to you. Gotta win win win, aye?

[Elmo]

As an aside, I vaguely remember elias complaining that he didn't get a scummie nom for The Pine Barrens, which amused me greatly. Symmetrically, KoC thought we should get a scummie for BSG Mafia just because the town demolished the scum when actually, the scum were just crap. I guess this is the kind of thing I find analogous, although obviously not as accentuated.

[Elmo]

"why the hell am I playing this game if I don't even care who wins and I'm not trying?"

Because I signed up in the hopes of a fun game, and I can't un-signup once I've discovered that's not going to be, basically. Did you have fun this game? I've absolutely hated some games that I ended up winning in similar fashion, from memory, but for some reason I imagine you enjoyed it.

I still have no idea why you think the scum played well; you haven't answered that beyond essentially saying they played better than the town, which (as far as I can see) we agree isn't sufficient. I also don't know which mislynches you think the scum generated (that required non-jester-level play).