The Werewolves of Millers Hollow (Game Over)

[Yosarian2]

Actually, there were two dead people on that list, dramonic and old-zwet, my mistake.

Things we know:

Zwet is pro-town
Last night, two new people started dancing, and THe Replacment was killed (I asssume by the warewolves). So, I'm going to assume that both the piper and at least one warewolf were active last night, and going to suggest lynch out of the pool of active people.

People who are getting replaced: Battle Mage;Ztife;Rockatansky;Millar13.

(Battle mage dosn't actually count, since he clearly could have sent a choice in last night. Also, we know millar is pro-town)

Ok, that didn't actually help as much as I thought it would. Take those off, and we have:

2) MikeSC6 (Male, 19)
4) DizzyIzzyB13 (Female, 17)
9) Yosarian2 (Male, 28), Mayor
10) Jahudo (Male, 73)
11) Gorrad (Female, 42)
12) NabakovNabakov(Male, 19)
20) Starbuck (Male, 21)
21) Battle Mage (Female, 19)

Hmm. Well, assuming the piper isn't dancing, he must be one of

2) MikeSC6 (Male, 19)
9) Yosarian2 (Male, 28), Mayor
10) Jahudo (Male, 73)
11) Gorrad (Female, 42)
20) Starbuck (Male, 21)

I also don't really think Izzy or Nav look scummy to me, so I wouldn't really want to lynch one of them anyway.

So anyway, I'd be willing to lynch someone off that list (who's not me, obv). The piper is almost certanly there, and I strongly suspect that at least one warewolf is as well (There may be a lurker warewolf as well, but there must be at least one acitve one who sent the kill in, and I think it'll be on that list). So, based on process of elimination I would be willing to lynch one of ( MikeSC6, Jahudo, Gorrad, Starbuck); out of the 4 of them, I'd bet that at least 2 are scum.

Out of those, I know I was suspicious of Mike a few days ago (this game has been dragging on so long, I honestly don't remember why anymore), and Starbuck's seemed a little off to me today. I'll do some targeted re-reads at some point in the near future and try to be more specific then about who on that list I want to lynch today.

[MikeSC6]

Does anyone have access to the original game? If age and gender had something to do with picking the roles, maybe there's a way we could work it out? I can't find anything on Google that suggests age dictated role in the original game, though.

Jahudo's age stands out, but I can't remember considering Jahudo to be acting scummy.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Does anyone have access to the original game? If age and gender had something to do with picking the roles, maybe there's a way we could work it out? I can't find anything on Google that suggests age dictated role in the original game, though.

Jahudo's age stands out, but I can't remember considering Jahudo to be acting scummy.

I'm guessing it's something to do with the random events - remember night one, when we lost the females for a day? I'm betting one or more of them is based on age.

[Starbuck]

Gorrad's age stands out a bit too, since everyone else is either in their 20s or teens.

Gorrad is in his 40s, and Jahudo is in his 70s.

[Yosarian2]

Gorrad's age stands out a bit too, since everyone else is either in their 20s or teens.

Gorrad is in his 40s, and Jahudo is in his 70s.

Everyone picked their own age and gender when they joined the game, starbuck.

[zwetschenwasser]

BM is so the last werewolf.

[Yosarian2]

BM is so the last werewolf.

"the last" warewolf? How many do you think are in this game, zwet?

[zwetschenwasser]

one or two.

[Battle Mage]

BM is so the last werewolf.

lol, you got me SO wrong, hombre.

BM

[Yosarian2]

one or two.

This was a 21 person game...

[Starbuck]

Gorrad's age stands out a bit too, since everyone else is either in their 20s or teens.

Gorrad is in his 40s, and Jahudo is in his 70s.

Everyone picked their own age and gender when they joined the game, starbuck.

Please remember that I replaced in when the game was very far in. I wasn't here at the beginning.

[Yosarian2]

Gorrad's age stands out a bit too, since everyone else is either in their 20s or teens.

Gorrad is in his 40s, and Jahudo is in his 70s.

Everyone picked their own age and gender when they joined the game, starbuck.

Please remember that I replaced in when the game was very far in. I wasn't here at the beginning.

(nods) Yeah, I know, that's why I was lettign you know.

We all picked our gender and sex when we joined the game. I think it was before we got our roles, if I'm rembering correctly.

[zwetschenwasser]

one or two.

This was a 21 person game...

Then I'm about 80% sure BM is a werewolf.

[Battle Mage]

one or two.

This was a 21 person game...

Then I'm about 80% sure BM is a werewolf.

would you bet your considerable reputation on it? xD

BM

[MikeSC6]

I agree that BM is scummy, but it would be better to target someone who's scummy and could possibly be the Piper, in my opinion.

6 left not dancing. One of them we think is the Piper.

So the worst case scenario is- we lynch someone who isn't dancing but isn't the Piper. That's 4 left. Nightkill another non-dancer, that's 3 left. 2 new dancers, 1 left. We'd have a 50/50 chance of hitting the Piper tomorrow (as a worst case scenario).

If we lynch a dancer to try and thin the numbers, it's possible that could help the Piper- as they could be left tomorrow with two non-dancers other than the Piper. Worse odds when it comes to lynching the Piper.

[NabakovNabakov]

I agree that BM is scummy, but it would be better to target someone who's scummy and could possibly be the Piper, in my opinion.

6 left not dancing. One of them we think is the Piper.

So the worst case scenario is- we lynch someone who isn't dancing but isn't the Piper. That's 4 left. Nightkill another non-dancer, that's 3 left. 2 new dancers, 1 left. We'd have a 50/50 chance of hitting the Piper tomorrow (as a worst case scenario).

If we lynch a dancer to try and thin the numbers, it's possible that could help the Piper- as they could be left tomorrow with two non-dancers other than the Piper. Worse odds when it comes to lynching the Piper.

This assumes that:
1) The scum agree with killing a non-dancer
2) The non-dancer they kill is

not

targeted by the Piper

Personally, I feel there are so many unknowns

and

ways to correct course at this stage that lynching dancer v. non-dancer today is pretty much irrelevant.

If we lynch a dancer, the possible number of non-dancers tomorrow ranges from 3 to 5. If we lynch a non dancer, that range becomes 2 to 4. From anywhere in that cumulative range (2 to 5), we could eke out a 50-50 shot.

With 2 non-dancers: Already there
With 3 non-dancers: Lynch one, obligate the scum to kill one of the other two.
With 4 non-dancers: Lynch a dancer, obligate the scum to kill a dancer.
With 5 non-dancers: Lynch a non-dancer, obligate the scum to kill a dancer (or vice-versa).

[Yosarian2]

Vote:Gorrad

Out of the 4 people on my list, he's been completely hiding in the background, and just being generally useless to the town, for basically the entire game, while sitlll posting often enough to not be replaced (and being around enough so he could easily have sent in either the wolf kills or the dancer targets).

[Yosarian2]

Yeah. Gorrad has been in the game for 4 months now, and has made not a single post at any point anywhere in the game that looks like honest scumhunting. He's probably scum.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

A review of Gorrad's posts seems to correlate with what Yos said. He seems to have drifted in and out of the game, whilst never reallty posting long or original posts. He's been quick to latch onto wagons and hasn't tended to make original points when voting or explaining voting. He's joined easy wagons, while boosting his post count by squabbling with Zwet over his playstyle to appear to be creating content. He also tried to push for BM for mayor on day one, which isn't exactly in his favor, either. There's certainly a case to answer against him, I think. Hmm. Unless there's a better case to be made against another one of the active players on Yos' list of suspects, I think he's the play for today.

vote: Gorrad{/b]

[DizzyIzzyB13]

vote: Gorrad

, since I typoed the bolding.

[zwetschenwasser]

BM is more likely werewolf than anyone! He tried to prove his innocence by merely proving that he wasn't the piper! It's manipulation!

[Gorrad]

Back from V/LA.

I'm vanilla. I always lurk when I'm vanilla, and the whole you-don't-post-for-a-day sure as hell didn't help. It, in fact, hurt. Simply put, the vanilla and the lackaday screwed me over motivation-wise.

As scum and PR, I have an active interest in the game and am MUCH more likely to post.

[zwetschenwasser]

Do YOU think BM is scum?

[Gorrad]

Nope!

[Yosarian2]

I'm vanilla.

And he claims vanilla with two votes on him.

Let's hang him.