Mini 837 - Stratego Mafia! (Game Over!)

[Hoopla]

Confirming, hello everyone.

[Hoopla]

Does anyone think it's worthwhile talking about the set-up at this stage? If anyone here isn't familiar with the rankings, definitely check it out now. I have a few thoughts about the way roles could possibly interact and what we could expect, but if others deem it a moot topic, then we can skip it and just go straight to lynching scum.

In other news;

Vote: ortolan

[Hoopla]

For what it's worth, I don't think we should talk about the possibility of having/not having numbers in our role PM's. You'll note that the Spy, bombs and the flag aren't assigned number values on that system.

[Hoopla]

btw just to get on record; dramonic's 35 is the scummiest thing I've seen in the game so far but I needed to get that Kast vote off my chest

How exactly? The garbage Sajin is spewing is the only thing of note so far.

[Hoopla]

I actually like that scumtell ortolan has explained, and recall seeing other similar examples in a couple of my games. It isn't universal though, and I can think of plenty of times where you don't always vote for the scummiest action.

I think when some players lay down a random vote, they feel like their next one has to be serious and justified by a case, and therefore may not vote a slight scumtell.

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: dramonic

[Hoopla]

I'm not a fan of quick early-wagons and I don't have a decent case (since I can't find scum before post 13 of a game). I'm not going to vote without at least the latter <<

I find it odd you'd make this statement when your wagon only had two votes on it. Why didn't you express similar concern for the two vote wagon on Gorrad? What was the purpose for stating you don't like early bandwagons?

[Hoopla]

because people were voting me for not voting Gorrad.

Would you suggest their votes would better serve on a random person?

[Hoopla]

No, I'd suggest their vote would be better off on hiatus until we can see what the devil is that oh so mighty case Sajin has on Gorrad and vote accordingly.

Why should the game stall for someone posting garbage? There was no N0, scum are the one's that have information. I suspect it was done just for the sake of conversation, and if that's true we'll get better conversation from wagonning players. It's a nice bonus that you're looking like flustered scum.

[Hoopla]

With 12 alive, it takes 8 to lynch!

Error?

[Hoopla]

I am disliking Hoopla's posts just a bit less than I dislike AlmasterGM's posts. Hoopla seems to be looking to jump on an easy lynch target rather than looking for scum.

Why do you think he is an easy lynch target? I don't see anything that would suggest dramonic is a rubbish player, or incapable of defending himself. If you think he is an easy lynch target, surely he is doing something wrong, or has an anti-town meta?

I've played in a game were someone got hammered before 48 hours had passed since the beginning. I'm not big on early wagons. Odds are I won't be voting before a few pages in (and 3 is not enough)

These games are so few and far between, and on the odd occasion someone is quicklynched, it usually gives the town more information than a normal day of back and forth semantic garbage.

[Hoopla]

I always feel scum can often post with much more certainty than townies and that townies in general tend to use more 'tentative'. Finding peole scummy because they use 'I think' is scummy of its own in my opinion.

Although I catch myself using tentative language as town, I still disagree. Scum

know

that whoever they're attacking is town, and

know

they're lying. Using tentative language allows for suspicion on a player but also a get-out clause if need be. Most scum players will generally try and leave options open for bussing, or chasing other townies.

Leaving FoS's is another tactic that furthers suspicion without furthering a wagon, but still leaves a placeholder of suspicion to jump back to if needing an excuse to jump on a wagon.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla-

I believe you are misunderstanding or misrepresenting dramonic's post 47 and he seems incapable of calling you out on it.

-I think this pretty clearly answers your question. I see no evidence that Dramonic made any posts that successfully clarified his position which you were misrepresenting. If you disagree, then please show those posts.

Dramonic only said that in 47 after he was voted for by Vaya in the previous post. But I think I did misunderstand his post initially, so I want to readdress something here;

I'm not a fan of quick early-wagons and I don't have a decent case (since I can't find scum before post 13 of a game). I'm not going to vote without at least the latter <<

I find it odd you'd make this statement when your wagon only had two votes on it. Why didn't you express similar concern for the two vote wagon on Gorrad? What was the purpose for stating you don't like early bandwagons?

because people were voting me for not voting Gorrad.

I see now dramonic was referencing Gorrad's wagon, but he only referenced Gorrad's wagon once he started getting votes (which is perhaps where the confusion lay). Dramonic has been in enough games to know the nature of the RVS and beyond - I truly don't understand why he would be worried about two votes, on either Gorrad or himself.

Also, you don't need to respond to everything in all your posts, it just makes me less likely to read them.

At least one

of the players not voting currently is guaranteed to be scum.

Stupid logic. Maybe going by pure chance it's feasible, but unless you're going to back this up with something substancial, it's an airy quote.

[Hoopla]

Since when do we unvote on vanilla claims?

This is exactly what I was thinking. You should not let a player be pushed to L-1 if you have no intention of lynching them. If you have the intention of lynching them, a vanilla claim should not save them.

[Hoopla]

Tempting as it is to go through with the policy lynch of dramonic I'm not feeling his recent responses as scum sadly

I think one or both of Kast and Hoops is scum

Hoops, are you scum?

Kast, are you scum?

No, so it must be Kast.

[Hoopla]

You've pretty much been tunneling dramonic this whole game. I can't incriminate you too much for this as I've been doing the same, but could you share you're thoughts on other players, particularly who you think may be scum?

Sure, the latter half of the dramonic wagon is scummy as hell. How can you put someone to L-1, get them to claim vanilla, then jump off the bandwagon? That is about as blatant as rolefishing could possibly be, and is bad news for the town as it narrows the powerrole pool.

Ortolan, EB and Sajin look the most opportunistic, in this sense. Ortolan because of how easily he convinced himself that dramonic was town after he had claimed. He had a convenient placeholder of suspicion early which helped his cause, so I'm more focussed on the other two.

Sajin is the worst in this respect. He's 4th on the wagon and then look at his next two posts after dramonic claims;

Unvote

while I ponder more.

I still like my gorrad vote.

Vote: Gorrad

The fact that Sajin had another preferrable lynch choice in Gorrad suggests he was pushing the wagon for the sake of pushing. I can't believe he hasn't warranted any attention from this.

Electricbadger's (197) sucks. The way he gets his vote off dramonic is well scummy. You don't think 8 is going to be mafia? You shouldn't have put him at L-1 and fished for a claim if you were going to jump off that easily.

Unvote, vote: Sajin

Seriously, this guy needs more attention.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla
I could understand why a person might have thought dramonic was town after his claim. I agree with what EB just said. If you feel that he should have been lynched, I think that suggests that you feel he may be scum. But you don't seem too concerned about figuring out if he's scum or proving it, you just seem upset that he wasn't lynched.

I'm upset with people pushing dramonic's lynch and being unprepared to lynch a vanilla. It indicates to me that it was scum-driven.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, do you think dramonic is scum or townie?

I thought he was scum up until he claimed, and even then I thought he was a decent chance (as decent as you can get on D1). The fact that so many people bailed from the wagon as soon as he claimed makes me think he's likelier to be a townie, and scum don't want to get caught with their name stuck on an innocent.

If dramonic is scum, we're all idiots for missing an opportunity. It was a very bizarre wagon that definitely has some scum involvement - although I think it's a lot more likely it was pushed by scum, than scum being pushed.

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: Sajin

Seriously, this guy needs more attention.

This is a dangerous lynch. If Sajin has a very high number like he hinted at the beginning, we could be taking out an extremely powerful pro-town player. Remember, we still don't know how this number system works.

I doubt the numbers have that much to do with the roles. If dramonic is truthful, we have just found out that his vanilla role is an 8.

Even if the numbers do have something to do with it and he is a supposed powerful role - if he's town-aligned he may very well die anyway. This is silly though, because it's a defense based on non-information.

---

Sajin, your vote was weak, and you should have jumped off the wagon before dramonic claimed if you had no intention to lynch.

[Hoopla]

I still like my Sajin vote. Can someone explain the Synx wagon for me?

[Hoopla]

I'd still rather a Sajin lynch, but I'm not opposed to the Synx wagon on the basis of him being lurky.

[Hoopla]

Almaster is probably not scum, I targeted him last night because I thought his votes were bandwagon-like.

Mafia edit: I guess he could be scum and have had his partners do the kill

That is if we believe your role. What exactly is it again? You only said Miner and 3 last time.

[Hoopla]

I just find it odd he only claimed the piece and number, when all the kills so far have been; Piece/number/role. He gave a description, but you'd presume he would have been given a role title too.

[Hoopla]

Sorry everyone for my recent inactivity - I'm in the process of moving. The hard stuff is basically done, so I should have a lot of time from now on!

[Hoopla]

Hello, I think Synx is a very choice today. The couple of hiccups in his claim is enough for me to doubt it's worth, and when you consider he was the competing wagon on D1 with a townie, I'm confident he is scum.

Vote: Synx

[Hoopla]

Alive D1 people on final BW:

Hoopla, Vaya, AlmasterGM

, ortolan
Alive D2 people on final BW: Gorrad,

Vaya, AlmasterGM, Hoopla

, ElectricBadger

Vote: Hoopla

.

That doesn't make any sense to me at all. For one, the second bandwagon lynched scum, and you have two other players both in similar positions to me. Show your reasoning please.

I'm looking squarely at those that weren't on the Synx lynch, and possibly EB for being the hammer vote. I agree it doesn't seem like an opportune time to bus - and that the competing wagon with Synx is probably town. When Synx was at L-2, after ortolan jumped off - note Weyouns attempt to start a rival wagon elsewhere. I'm quite sure Alamaster is town, and my top suspects are ortolan and ElectricBadger - but I will be doing a more thorough reread quite soon.

[Hoopla]

I'm looking squarely at those that weren't on the Synx lynch, and possibly EB for being the hammer vote.

I'm confused, Hoops. You've called out dramonic for posting suspicion and not voting; you've called out the first dramonic wagon for putting him at L-1 and not lynching; and you've called me out for hammering a third time L-1.

What vote, precisely, ISN'T a scum tell for you?

All the other votes in the game that you've failed to mention? Voting is a great way to discover motives, as they are generally a statement of intent.

--

If the Synx wagon was considered likely to happen, why wouldn't scum jump on to gain some town credit? I don't think the votes early on the wagon are likely to be scum when it was still up in the air.

[Hoopla]

I don't understand why ortolan is creating a scumtell out of my interaction (or lack thereof) with WLC when he had a dozen game posts over two days. I think almost all of us had similar encounters with him.

--

fyi the last? scum doesn't need to have connections to the two mafia players. I'm 99% sure the setup is either 3 mafia and one SK or 2 mafia and one SK (leaning towards the latter).

Vaya/Hoops are the two players I'm looking at to fill out those roles.

Again, I don't understand why ortolan is so confident about a SK. You're not usually one to exaggerate so heavily, so I find it odd why you hold these views. Why don't town aligned kills make sense to you?

I think there is 3 mafia - a 'diffuser' and a goon seems like a pretty weak scum team to be up against a town and a vig/SK. The defusing element of the scum team makes more sense up against a town aligned killer. Why would the SK be watered down like that?

[Hoopla]

This is why Gorrad is town.

Vote Count

Gorrad - 1 (Sajin)

dramonic - 2 (Synx, Gorrad)

AlmasterGM - 1 (Kast)
ortolan - 1 (WeyounsLastClone)
Synx - 3 (Debonair Danny DiPietro, ortolan, ElectricBadger)
Sajin - 4 (Hoopla, AlmasterGM, Vaya, dramonic)

---

This is the vote count as of post 275. WLC then jumps on with this on post 287;

I'm not really sure, at this point I'd still like to vote for ortolan or Gorrad, but those votes wouldn't help that much. I don't see the point for either Sajin or Synx, but dramonic I can see a bit of reason why he'd be scum.

Unvote. Vote: dramonic.

This is a matter of scum conciousness. As scum know the cases they pursue and votes they make are false, they're aware of their collective suspicions. Many don't even look at this beyond the cosmetic, and I speculate only the brazen would buddy so openly on the same bandwagon. Talented scum can manipulate this, but I don't think WLC fits into this category, and I could not possibly see him jumping on to dramonic's fizzling wagon if Synx AND Gorrad were scum.

[Hoopla]

I would like you to make a case against someone Hoops

Cases aren't really my thing. I offer quantified gut feelings and processes of elimination. PBPA's and iso-cases are always reaching, and almost always bullshit. But here is my thinking now;

Myself, Alamaster and Gorrad aren't scum, and I don't think Vaya is scum (but this is just gut) based on yesterday's lynch.

I will likely be rallying for your lynch today, or EB's. I dislike your abandonment of wagons to near lynch, especially dramonics. This is minor though. I remember when we were a hydra together as town, and I got worried that the candidate I'd been chasing all day was starting to look town to me. We had a discussion about it's always wisest to be honest and back down, even if it makes you look scummy. I can kind of see this in regards to dramonic.

But less so with Synx. You offered suspicion, then voted with an exit strategy;

Vote: Synx

Certainly until he provides a better explanation for that misspelling.

And then jumped off, and didn't manage to find a way back on to his wagon, while still offering suspicion. I also have a gut feeling about your play in general - it just feels superficial and overly assumptive, which doesn't remind me of town you.

Can you tell me your opinions of Alamaster and Gorrad?

[Hoopla]

Gorrad, rather than being cryptic, can you tell us why claiming is a good idea?

[Hoopla]

There is no point massclaiming if it won't help the town - you're the only one supporting it at the moment. I'm happy to cooperate if you give us something more than, 'HEY GUYS TRUST ME ON THIS ONE!'

[Hoopla]

If we're claiming, I want ortolan and EB to start.

[Hoopla]

that's 1 vote for me/EB, two for Vaya/Hoops

You voted for Alamaster, or was that a typo?

[Hoopla]

Lol...

[Hoopla]

What am I claiming, just number, or entire role?

[Hoopla]

Major - 7

[Hoopla]

I believe EB - he isn't an SK or responsible for any kills at all (unless he is mafia). I was debating whether or not to come out and claim, but this seems like the best option for the town, because I am confident he isn't scum.

I am a Vigilante - I'm responsible for the kills of Kast and WLC.

[Hoopla]

Hoops is scum (also?) (seriously). I am 99.9% sure there is no "vig" in the setup.

Unvote
Vote: Hoopla

Why? You've parrotted this message a few times, but have provided no reasoning. Please show your logic.

[Hoopla]

I have a limited vig ability

Can you please explain this limited vig ability, ortolan?

[Hoopla]

also it is not the only ability I have

What else can you do?

[Hoopla]

cop (which I wasted n1 on Kast) and maybe one or two other things I haven't done yet.

How convenient. Rather than dragging this out, why not come out and claim Jack of All Trades, which is what you seem to be hinting at?

I honestly don't buy it, and am surprised how little scrutiny you've come under, especially for your D2 play. Your attempts to derail Synx's wagon were quite obvious and blatant. Here is a couple of good examples;

I would prefer a Synx to an Almaster lynch substantially.

Hoops seems to be lurking.

What do people think of Vaya? I actually get pretty scummy vibes after re-reading him.

Mod: please prod Hoopla

Then why no vote?

Because I might want to lynch someone else like Vaya or even Hoops.

Not thrilled with everything he's done, but he reads town to me so far. What stands out?

Early game was lots of cross-questioning from him and setup speculation without taking much of a stand on anything. He only votes when prompted. Some of the dead (confirmed) townies also suspected him. It's quite possible he's not scum with Synx though.

--

Also, why vig WLC if you were suspicious of myself and Vaya? WLC seems like a pretty left-field pick for your vig choice.

[Hoopla]

I have seemingly been unlucky/bad a bit with role actions. I investigated Kast on the same night he died and then vigged WLC night two. I suspect what happened is you and I both happened to target him on the same night. Either your kill method takes precedence over mine, or mine happens to be "shot" also. I would hope no-one would think I would claim scummy roleactions as I have done if I were indeed scum. I also wouldn't have any motivation to counter-claim you as I've done as scum, unless say there were a four man mafia and I'm seeking to end-game, which seems rather implausible to me.

I expected a wifom defense from you - so allow me to offer one of my own. Because nobody else has claimed any of the extra night-kills, you all know I am either a vig or SK. As SK, why would I come out and claim to prevent EB's death, when I could have easily got him mislynched, and got a free-pass into lylo?

[Hoopla]

Look, there's a town miner and a scum miner. Therefore, the bomb is SK. Hoops may be a third scum, but EB's undoubtedly the SK.

Are you serious? I'm claiming the extra kills.

[Hoopla]

To help Gorrad out: Nobody has claimed the kill of Kast, therefore it is mine. It is then a logical assumption that the matching kill method must also be my kill.

Kast, SPY - Tracker, shot night one!
WeyounsLastClone, MAJOR - 7 - MAFIA Goon, shot night two!

As mafia I would not shoot my partner WLC, so you must know I am either an SK or a Vigilante.

You have to remember, if I was mafia falsely claiming these kills I have just outed myself to the SK/Vig, which would be an absolutely stupid move. EB isn't an SK, sorry.

[Hoopla]

and Hoops, can you explain why you targeted Kast N1?

To be honest, I had no idea who scum was. My biggest suspicion was Synx, but I opted not to kill him, as I thought if he were town, the mafia would try to kill him. I saw that as a potentially wasteful situaton.

So, I decided to go by gut and take a shot at Kast. The percentages of him being scum over someone else were so slim in my mind, that I decided to kill based on (in my opinion) an anti-town posting style. He reminded me of Mastin.

[Hoopla]

ElectricBadger: Are you a bomb as in, you only explode whoever targets you at night (and yourself I assume)? Or do explode someone who places a hammer vote on you too?

[Hoopla]

What are you talking about? Why on earth would bombs be scum?

My current understanding is that EB is a PGO. These are almost always town.

In stratego, bombs don't ever move. It would be fucking stupid if bomb roles got night choices. Stop and think for a minute please.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, a bomb is anti-town because I'm town and have a role that's anti-bomb.

Almaster, see above. There's obviously an anti-town bomb because of my role. If Hoopla is NOT a bomb, then there's a fourth anti-town role which is a bomb.

You're unbelievable. I can't believe the craplogic you're peddling. I seriously hope you don't believe this.

The bomb is a bomb - it's a paranoid gun owner. It explodes someone who targets it. It is a town-role, despite usually being a detriment (as there are more town actions flying around at night, ergo more chance of town hitting it).

You said you don't know what your role does, right? I bet you defuse the bomb and stop it killing anyone that targets it. It's a much better theory than thinking it's an SK,

when I am the one that claimed the kills

.

[Hoopla]

What powers have you got left in your arsenal, ortolan? The standard doc/RB/cop/vig combo, I assume?

[Hoopla]

I disagree Alamaster - Vig, tracker, cop, JOAT could be balanced if the last mafia has a powerrole. You have to consider the bomb is generally a detrimental role for town too as it can easily take out any town role that targets it.

It frustrates me that ortolan came up scum, because I really didn't believe his claim. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a mafia godfather, but we should play the percentages.

Again, ortolan, what have you got left of your JOAT powers?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, what in the nine rings makes you think the bomb is a PGO? Seriously. Don't assume speculation to be undeniable truth.

Almaster, I'm down with that plan.

EB, if I had pursued another target, then I would have left Ortolan and the rest of y'all wondering why the heck I asked for the claim. Also, you could have been Flag.

*sigh*

As opposed to you speculating it was an SK?

Bomb Wiki

Vote Gorrad.

I am the bomb, and am town, as bombs normally are. My role states miners are immune to the effects, so it makes little sense to specify it to one miner and not to another.

My D1 speculation of you as a scum bomb was, of course, for the sole purpose of implying I had no knowledge of the bomb myself - hoping to make mafia assume I was the one 'safe' target.

Your claim is weak, and even if true your actions are timed perfectly to take pressure off Hoops, whom you clearly think is scum; I see no town reason to divert a lynch from scum and reroute it towards the one player that town wants to be night killed.

I have no night action, and thus no night targets. I am a regular bomb; btw, this also means that no one with night actions has targeted me during the game (feel free to counterclaim).

Is that enough?

Also, EB should confirm or deny this in his next post. The bomb makes sense to me

knowing

I am a vig, as there needs to be a role that depowers town somehow. It's the bomb that does it.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, I've given non-flavor-based evidence.

Post number please.

[Hoopla]

Look, there's a town miner and a scum miner. Therefore, the bomb is SK. Hoops may be a third scum, but EB's undoubtedly the SK.

BUT I'M CLAIMING THE KILLS!

Your theory on EB's role is a lot more reaching than my normal interpretation of a normal town role. Plus, my theory doesn't run into problems such as another player (me), claiming the kills EB hasn't claimed.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla: Anyone who targets me with a night action dies, unless they are a miner.

Exactly, it's essentially a PGO that miners are immune to. Although I suspect that miners can defuse the bomb to make it safe for everyone else.

[Hoopla]

Hey Hoops why do you find me scummy again? Is it just the reasons in 453?

Can you please answer the question I keep asking first. What powers have you got left up your sleeve?

[Hoopla]

It's funny how ortolan can't believe there is another vig, or another cop in the game. It's his role that contradicts two others in the game, whereas mine and Alamaster only contradict one. Not to mention claiming a cop result on a corpse, and a vig target on my kill.

---

My theory, based on the knowledge I am a town vigilante:

I know there is only scum left in the game. It's likely it is either Alamaster or ortolan.

If Alamaster is a sane cop, it is highly likely there is a Godfather role to water down the effectiveness of the cop (especially considering the roles the town possess).

There is a chance Alamaster is scum, but it makes no sense to come out this early, as he's leaving himself exposed when he isn't NK'd (presumably he'd push for my lynch if this was the case).

There is a slim chance Alamaster is a naive cop (another detrimental town role) to even out the excess of power in the town.

--

Gorrad is not scum, because of reasons I posted earlier, and EB is a town bomb. Vaya has a slim chance of being scum, but that would mean Alamaster and ortolan must be truthful, which seems unlikely without Alamaster being naive (which in turn is also unlikely).

--

The good news is I have a plan to win the game for the town (even with the possibility of me being an SK), which I will reveal soon.

[Hoopla]

Here are my thoughts. This plan works on the basis that Gorrad is a town miner, and EB is a town bomb. These two alignments are the ones we are most certain of.

We need to no lynch today and coordinate our night actions to prove the powerroles.

1. Hoopla vig/SK kills Alamaster
2. Alamaster investigates Vaya
3. Ortolan protects Alamaster
4. Gorrad does not defuse the EB bomb


If Alamaster dies, it proves ortolan was lying about his JOAT claim. There is a slim chance ortolan is still a mafia roleblocker or mafia doctor. But I see this as very unlikely if we have a cop.

If ortolan is truthful, no vig/SK kill will go through, and there will just be the mafia kill. This will bring the numbers down to 5 and confirm ortolan, and we find out if Vaya is scum. If so, we lynch Vaya the next day. If not, we lynch me.

This method catches out ortolan, Vaya (unless he is a Godfather or Alamaster is naive/scum) and myself. Plus we still have a backup lynch in 3-player lylo if scum is Alamaster or Godfather Vaya.

--

This seems like the best percentage play the town has. It ensures ortolan does not win as scum, or myself as SK. Leaving EB undefused leaves us one near confirmed town player alive in a 3-player lylo.

The main worry is the first mafia nightkill after we no lynch. This plan would work a lot better if ortolan had a one-shot Roleblock ability too. Can you roleblock ortolan?

[Hoopla]

Actually, that could leave us in a 1 mafia, 1 SK/Vig, 2 town endgame. Even though I am a vigilante, this will be a bad result from the town perspective, as I will probably be lynched to let mafia win.

A better plan is for us to no-lynch today, then;

1. Hoopla vig Hoopla
2. Ortolan protect Hoopla
3. Alamaster inspect Vaya
4. Gorrad does not defuse EB bomb

This way, if I die, it proves ortolan is scum. If I don't, it confirms ortolan, we only have one kill which makes it safe to lynch me with 5 alive.

Hmm, although, if I were an SK I could just say this, shoot someone else and hope mafia hit someone else and get 4 player endgame which gives me a shot at the end. Maybe I am the best lynch today.

Sorry, my plan is rubbish.

[Hoopla]

Okay, we lynch me today, then we go to night with 5 players. When I flip town vigilante you follow my plan. If I'm the SK, yay town, it doesn't matter.

1. Ortolan protects Gorrad
2. Alamaster investigates Vaya
3. Gorrad does not defuse bomb EB

The only way Gorrad can die is if Ortolan is scum. But he would not shoot Gorrad, as he would be outing himself. This forces whoever mafia is to kill ortolan, Vaya or Alamaster.

Gorrad and EB then choose the next lynch as they are the most town, although if I were to choose; ortolan, Vaya then Alamaster is my preferential order.

Even this comes down to guesswork though - I cannot find any autowin for town. Sorry, I thought I had it this morning when I was eating breakfast.

[Hoopla]

Yeah, this is a tricky scenario. Do you agree that EB and Gorrad are the most town, though?

[Hoopla]

ElectricBadger: Do you explode just your opponent, or do you die too? Do you know that?

[Hoopla]

Why would I have claimed cop if I was scum? Nobody suspected me at all before. There's zero reason for me to invent that claim.

Why would I claim vig, when I could have got EB lynched and a free pass into lylo?

Why would ortolan claim JOAT when he didn't need to, with results on my targets?

There's plenty of wifom going around. The fact we'll probably lynch each other because of it suggests the game is balanced enough, with a seemeingly excess in town power.

--

It's like having two sane cops, or two doctors in a set-up. It's almost not any more advantagous for the town having the extra role, as they're likely to be lynched thinking one is lying.

In fact, in charter's other game, he had two cops. Granted, it was a 'cops and robbers' game. But still, I guess it makes the 'no doubles' possibility a little less likelier.

[Hoopla]

Ortolan, for the billionth time, can you roleblock?

[Hoopla]

Everyone should post their opinions of what the set-up is. I know it's 3:9, but I want to know if people genuinely believe I am an SK.

[Hoopla]

Honestly? I think it's either 3-9 or 2-1-9. Though conceivable, I rather doubt we'd be set up against a 3-1-9.

I agree, especially when you consider the bomb to be not a positive town role.

[Hoopla]

Why do you trust ortolan?

[Hoopla]

Hmm, okay, but if there was a cop (and a JOAT), there is quite likely going to be a godfather, which is only possible out of Vaya and ortolan.

My list:

EB/Gorrad (90% town)

BIG GAP

Alamaster
ortolan/Vaya

[Hoopla]

How about this:

1) Lynch Vaya
2) Hoopla Vig ortolan
3) ortolan protects Gorrad.
4) The scum have to target either myself or Hoopla (they can't kill EB, it'll kill them).
5) Gorrad and EB are left in the endgame with either myself or Hoopla.

Personally, I don't think this is the optimal choice because Gorrad's PR isn't as useful as mine, but since people don't trust me as much as Gorrad and there may be a Godfather, it seems to be the best option.

I think this is the closest we've got to a winnable plan. We come up with deaths of ortolan, Vaya, then you/me, with a back-up lynch just in case. Why aren't we pushing this plan?

[Hoopla]

Understandable. I hope when I die, ortolan doesn't live until endgame.

[Hoopla]

What would I have had to gain from claiming vig when I could have had EB lynched today and coasted into lylo?

It works both ways.

[Hoopla]

I don't understand why people think I'm a SK, when the reason I came out and claimed was to save EB's life. How does that make sense?

By preventing his death, it means it increases the chances of getting myself lynched, lynching a mafia (and if that didn't win the game, it would prove I was a SK), or vigging the last mafia (which if it didn't win the game would prove I am an SK).

You can argue the wifom point, that I'm trying to get to endgame, but I could have got there anyway if I didn't come out and claim. Why would I take those extra risks for no gain?

[Hoopla]

The thing is though, we have to take a gamble on at least 2 people's alignments. We can't kill everyone. If you gamble on my alignment correctly and I am town, we increase the amount of town aligned kills we can have, and we almost certainly will win.

If you lynch me, you will only get one shot the next day at hitting the mafia (regardless of whether I am town or not), because you're increasing the amount of players that the town cannot kill.

I understand why I am the probable lynch choice, but I don't agree with it.

[Hoopla]

I don't really see any flaws in ortolan's logic. We can't take a risk. Minimally, even if Hoops isn't the SK, we will be down to 1 NK per night, so we'll have another two rounds to find the final scum.

Are we ready to hammer? If nobody objects, I'll do it.

No, if you lynch me, you get ONE shot at hitting the mafia the next day.

[Hoopla]

You're assuming his role claim is correct. I don't think it is.

It'd be stupid to have a scumteam consisting of two miners and a goon, if they're competing with a cop, vig/sk, tracker and a JOAT. Gorrad is probably the most likely to be town, other than you.

[Hoopla]

There are six alive. With Hoopla NOT lynched tonight, there are three D4. If there's another mafia and Hoopla is an SK, we auto-lose. With Hoopla lynched tonight, there are four D4 and we're in LYLO.

LYLO or auto-lose if there are two anti-town. Those are our choices. Personally, I'm going for the former.

Also, for those saying Hoopla claiming the Mafia kill makes her impossible to be Mafia? Who's saying she's telling the truth? Those kills were almost definitely made by an SK, one who would have to counter-claim to call Hoopla's bluff. I say she's the mafia and EB's the SK.

Why on earth would I claim vig/SK kills as mafia? Especially if I was the only one in my team left alive.

1) It means I leave myself exposed to the real vig/SK counterclaiming the kills.
2) If the real vig/SK is lynched today, or dies at night I screw myself over as I am caught lying.
3) I basically say to the vig/SK that I am mafia, and if it's a vig, I will be the night target.


GREAT SCUM PLAN!

[Hoopla]

Also Gorrad, are you saying that you are in favor of a Hoopla lynch?

If I was not, then why would I be voting for her?

She didn't claim the kills to protect, but rather to seal in her vig fakeclaim.

So, do you still think I am mafia, or are you just going to turn a blind eye to my post? If so, please post a response to my logic.

If not (and since you are still voting me), you must think I am an SK. What does that make of your read on EB? You can't have it both ways.

[Hoopla]

No, those odds are rubbish because you're not taking other variables into play.

You know I am not mafia, it is quite likely Gorrad and EB are not mafia. I would put the chances of hitting mafia at about 30% today, if we lynched someone other than me. Regardless of whether I am a vig or SK, you will have ONE shot of lynching mafia if I am the lynch today.

Oh okay, I was just about to explain how lynching me is a statistically bad play, but never mind (I started this post earlier this afternoon and forgot about it).

Good luck town!

[Hoopla]

While it's twilight, I'm starting to believe Almaster could be mafia, but ortolan would have been my vig choice. It's a coin flip between those two.

Gorrad and EB are town, Vaya is probably town.

[Hoopla]

I hope my opinions aren't discarded too swiftly tomorrow.

[Hoopla]

I'm a bit ticked off losing to lurker-scum, but that's the town's fault. It's funny how the entire scum-team were lurkers.

Great set-up charter! I really enjoyed it, not just because I got to kill people, but because I love stratego. I initially thought the possibility of actions would fail against higher roles, but never brought it up. I don't know why the idea didn't come back later in the game.

I think the set-up could have been hard for scum to win if Vaya was lynched early, as you essentially have 2 Bulletproof townies (not to mention the PGO lurking), but I'm glad it went into lylo. I'm disappointed I was lynched, but did my best to survive. I think I've lost my last ten games on-site, I don't remember winning.

[Hoopla]

sorry Hoops, that was my bad. was just a policy lynch really, which turned out to be a very bad idea this game

I wouldn't have been able to kill Vaya even if I wanted to though, so it's okay I suppose.

[Hoopla]

I think doing a large theme on this would be pretty cool too, yes/no? (Though this is likely not happening any time soon, supposed to be modding another large theme right now)

DO IT please! This was probably my favourite game I've played so far - it was a very creative setup.