Mini 837 - Stratego Mafia! (Game Over!)

[charter]

Vote Count

AlmasterGM - 3 (ElectricBadger, WeyounsLastClone, dramonic)

Synx - 3 (Gorrad, Vaya, AlmasterGM)

Not Voting

ortolan
Hoopla
Synx

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch!

Deadline is October 1st, midnight.

[AlmasterGM]

That doesn't change my premise, though. Claiming a fake role seems like a bad move. If there were another miner, for instance, they would be able to tell quickly whether the role matched their own

It's not a bad move if multiple players have the same number but not the same role. Seeing as I have the same number as someone who is dead, it's entirely possible that there is another miner in the game, but their role is different than Synx's.

Almaster says he has one of the roles that are dead. Most likely the flag was removed (since in the real game it's instant-win). Unless Charter duplicated roles in a completely arbitrary manner, the only role I can see well being duplicated is the spy. Two trackers on the town team would be pretty unlikely, wouldn't you say?

That's not what I said, so no. Even so, though, like someone else said, there's no reason roles aren't arbitrarily handed out. Numbers clearly were. Why not roles? Saying "no reason to believe otherwise" is a fallacious assumption.

Spy had no numerical rank, so no. Others were both vanilla, although Almaster's phrasing seems to imply he's not (or at least leaves the possibility open). I'm inclined to think this is misinformation to prevent town from counterclaiming as long as he's alive, as I can't see his eagerness to identify his rank serving any other purpose at the moment.

I'm not claiming any role - I'm just saying I share a number. The point of me doing this is that some people seem to be operating under certain presumptions regarding the setup that aren't true (e.g., the Miner has this role, if this person claims this number there can be a counterclaim, etc) I fail to see how this prevents the town from counterclaiming. We can still do that. If anything, it checks back false counterclaims because we know that more than one person can have the same number.

[dramonic]

For one thing, it provides scum with fakeclaims, since according to you any role can be duplicated.

[AlmasterGM]

For one thing, it provides scum with fakeclaims, since according to you any role can be duplicated.

First, I said number not role. Second, fine, don't believe me. You'll find out eventually when someone else flips and proves what I'm saying.

[dramonic]

you, for example?

[ortolan]

Then why no vote?

Because I might want to lynch someone else like Vaya or even Hoops.

Not thrilled with everything he's done, but he reads town to me so far. What stands out?

Early game was lots of cross-questioning from him and setup speculation without taking much of a stand on anything. He only votes when prompted. Some of the dead (confirmed) townies also suspected him. It's quite possible he's not scum with Synx though.

[Hoopla]

Hello, I think Synx is a very choice today. The couple of hiccups in his claim is enough for me to doubt it's worth, and when you consider he was the competing wagon on D1 with a townie, I'm confident he is scum.

Vote: Synx

[ElectricBadger]

Meh. Day's gone on long enough, I think the case on Synx is good, I don't believe his role claim and we've already had two L-1 situations on Synx that have revealed anything we're going to learn. For these reasons and to prevent another of our weird lynch-flinches,

Unvote Almaster, Vote Synx

[dramonic]

and that's the hammer folks. Care to kill the suspense Synx?

[charter]

Final vote count for day two.

Vote Count

AlmasterGM - 2 (WeyounsLastClone, dramonic)

Synx - 5 (Gorrad, Vaya, AlmasterGM, Hoopla, ElectricBadger)

Not Voting

ortolan
Synx

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch!

[charter]

There was much discussion about whether or not Synx was telling the truth about his role. He goes down fighting, but was no match for the five that wanted him off the board.

Synx, MINER - 3 - MAFIA Diffuser, lynched day two!

It's night two now. Day three will start in 72 hours. All night actions

must be PM'ed

to me before 72 hours or they will not count!

[charter]

Ughjdfj.. Still hardly any time, but here we go.

WeyounsLastClone, MAJOR - 7 - MAFIA Goon, shot night two!

dramonic, COLONEL - 8 - Vanilla town, removed from the board night two!

Day three begins! With six alive, it takes four to lynch. Deadline is October 10, midnight.

[Gorrad]

Alive D1 people on final BW:

Hoopla, Vaya, AlmasterGM

, ortolan
Alive D2 people on final BW: Gorrad,

Vaya, AlmasterGM, Hoopla

, ElectricBadger

Vote: Hoopla

.

[ElectricBadger]

Knowing his vote would put either wagon at L-1, why would scum Hoopla choose to vote scum Synx rather than Almaster? Although I don't like some things Hoop did - especially his reaction to the lynch flinch on dramonic now we know he was town - it seems like a bad time to buss a buddy.

[ortolan]

fyi the last? scum doesn't need to have connections to the two mafia players. I'm 99% sure the setup is either 3 mafia and one SK or 2 mafia and one SK (leaning towards the latter).

Vaya/Hoops are the two players I'm looking at to fill out those roles.

[Hoopla]

Alive D1 people on final BW:

Hoopla, Vaya, AlmasterGM

, ortolan
Alive D2 people on final BW: Gorrad,

Vaya, AlmasterGM, Hoopla

, ElectricBadger

Vote: Hoopla

.

That doesn't make any sense to me at all. For one, the second bandwagon lynched scum, and you have two other players both in similar positions to me. Show your reasoning please.

I'm looking squarely at those that weren't on the Synx lynch, and possibly EB for being the hammer vote. I agree it doesn't seem like an opportune time to bus - and that the competing wagon with Synx is probably town. When Synx was at L-2, after ortolan jumped off - note Weyouns attempt to start a rival wagon elsewhere. I'm quite sure Alamaster is town, and my top suspects are ortolan and ElectricBadger - but I will be doing a more thorough reread quite soon.

[ElectricBadger]

I'm looking squarely at those that weren't on the Synx lynch, and possibly EB for being the hammer vote.

I'm confused, Hoops. You've called out dramonic for posting suspicion and not voting; you've called out the first dramonic wagon for putting him at L-1 and not lynching; and you've called me out for hammering a third time L-1.

What vote, precisely, ISN'T a scum tell for you?

[Hoopla]

I'm looking squarely at those that weren't on the Synx lynch, and possibly EB for being the hammer vote.

I'm confused, Hoops. You've called out dramonic for posting suspicion and not voting; you've called out the first dramonic wagon for putting him at L-1 and not lynching; and you've called me out for hammering a third time L-1.

What vote, precisely, ISN'T a scum tell for you?

All the other votes in the game that you've failed to mention? Voting is a great way to discover motives, as they are generally a statement of intent.

--

If the Synx wagon was considered likely to happen, why wouldn't scum jump on to gain some town credit? I don't think the votes early on the wagon are likely to be scum when it was still up in the air.

[ortolan]

I think Hoops is the only really plausible last member of the mafia if there is one. Vaya is very likely to be an SK.

This is the only instance I can find of Hoops talking to WLC

I always feel scum can often post with much more certainty than townies and that townies in general tend to use more 'tentative'. Finding peole scummy because they use 'I think' is scummy of its own in my opinion.

Although I catch myself using tentative language as town, I still disagree. Scum

know

that whoever they're attacking is town, and

know

they're lying. Using tentative language allows for suspicion on a player but also a get-out clause if need be. Most scum players will generally try and leave options open for bussing, or chasing other townies.

Leaving FoS's is another tactic that furthers suspicion without furthering a wagon, but still leaves a placeholder of suspicion to jump back to if needing an excuse to jump on a wagon.

Then if I recall correctly the first time she mentioned Synx was here:

I still like my Sajin vote. Can someone explain the Synx wagon for me?

I'd still rather a Sajin lynch, but I'm not opposed to the Synx wagon on the basis of him being lurky.

Only when Synx came under suspicion did she really start to claim to suspect him. Then she confidently put him on L-1 being "confident" he would flip scum, after using the excuse of being away and thus unable to attend to the game. Seems like rather standard busing to me.

Vaya has been lurking, not engaging with anyone and this is an SK-tell:

I actually kinda agree with dramonic. A role that only blocks scum kills seems odd to me. To clarify, Synx, does your role pm specifically say you only block scum kills, or does it simply prevent kills in general?

I'm not sure if I'd rather lynch Vaya or Hoops first.

[Hoopla]

I don't understand why ortolan is creating a scumtell out of my interaction (or lack thereof) with WLC when he had a dozen game posts over two days. I think almost all of us had similar encounters with him.

--

fyi the last? scum doesn't need to have connections to the two mafia players. I'm 99% sure the setup is either 3 mafia and one SK or 2 mafia and one SK (leaning towards the latter).

Vaya/Hoops are the two players I'm looking at to fill out those roles.

Again, I don't understand why ortolan is so confident about a SK. You're not usually one to exaggerate so heavily, so I find it odd why you hold these views. Why don't town aligned kills make sense to you?

I think there is 3 mafia - a 'diffuser' and a goon seems like a pretty weak scum team to be up against a town and a vig/SK. The defusing element of the scum team makes more sense up against a town aligned killer. Why would the SK be watered down like that?

[Hoopla]

This is why Gorrad is town.

Vote Count

Gorrad - 1 (Sajin)

dramonic - 2 (Synx, Gorrad)

AlmasterGM - 1 (Kast)
ortolan - 1 (WeyounsLastClone)
Synx - 3 (Debonair Danny DiPietro, ortolan, ElectricBadger)
Sajin - 4 (Hoopla, AlmasterGM, Vaya, dramonic)

---

This is the vote count as of post 275. WLC then jumps on with this on post 287;

I'm not really sure, at this point I'd still like to vote for ortolan or Gorrad, but those votes wouldn't help that much. I don't see the point for either Sajin or Synx, but dramonic I can see a bit of reason why he'd be scum.

Unvote. Vote: dramonic.

This is a matter of scum conciousness. As scum know the cases they pursue and votes they make are false, they're aware of their collective suspicions. Many don't even look at this beyond the cosmetic, and I speculate only the brazen would buddy so openly on the same bandwagon. Talented scum can manipulate this, but I don't think WLC fits into this category, and I could not possibly see him jumping on to dramonic's fizzling wagon if Synx AND Gorrad were scum.

[ortolan]

I would like you to make a case against someone Hoops

[Hoopla]

I would like you to make a case against someone Hoops

Cases aren't really my thing. I offer quantified gut feelings and processes of elimination. PBPA's and iso-cases are always reaching, and almost always bullshit. But here is my thinking now;

Myself, Alamaster and Gorrad aren't scum, and I don't think Vaya is scum (but this is just gut) based on yesterday's lynch.

I will likely be rallying for your lynch today, or EB's. I dislike your abandonment of wagons to near lynch, especially dramonics. This is minor though. I remember when we were a hydra together as town, and I got worried that the candidate I'd been chasing all day was starting to look town to me. We had a discussion about it's always wisest to be honest and back down, even if it makes you look scummy. I can kind of see this in regards to dramonic.

But less so with Synx. You offered suspicion, then voted with an exit strategy;

Vote: Synx

Certainly until he provides a better explanation for that misspelling.

And then jumped off, and didn't manage to find a way back on to his wagon, while still offering suspicion. I also have a gut feeling about your play in general - it just feels superficial and overly assumptive, which doesn't remind me of town you.

Can you tell me your opinions of Alamaster and Gorrad?

[ortolan]

town. I'm quite sure the scum is you and/or Vaya

I know I've left myself a bit open to attack this game, but I had suspected Synx since day one. I didn't really like his claim day one either, but I had reason at the time to unvote him. IIRC I was the one to bring up the "misspelled role" point.

You will also notice WLC voted me during day one, and I didn't respond very well to his case.

I also haven't changed my suspicions. The reason I unvoted Synx day two was potentially in favour of you or Vaya. That hasn't changed.

Vote: Hoopla

[Gorrad]

Let's see here....In any case, I think the odds are in favor of it being three mafia. Ergo the bomb is almost definitely the vig that asploded DDD and Dramonic.

What does the town think about a massclaim? We've got one, maybe two people left to out, so the advantage is with us. Considering Synx's claim, I'm guessing scum were not given fakeclaims.