Stars Aligned - GAME OVER

[dramonic]

because you can adjust your research-lie when you know how many insanities your fake-target has.

[Sarag]

Question for the mod:

If the number of Cultists submitting a name to the Moderator is equal to or greater than the number of Investigators performing Research, or half the number of surviving Cultists, whichever is smaller, then the target of the Ritual is killed.

If there are an odd number of cultists, do they need half rounded up, or down, to ensure the ritual goes through?

[Percy]

Rounded up. OP fixed.

[Sarag]

because you can adjust your research-lie when you know how many insanities your fake-target has.

So is it better to try to catch research lies over insanity lies?

Let's see, if we claim insanity first - only Investigators are actually going to research, and it's good for them to be able to catch someone lying about their insanity count.

But it means that we give the cultists a safe action to claim - they can say they found someone with lower insanity with little controversy, and it gives them a good cover for their own insanity. Although if they accidentally pick an Investigator with some insanity, they could get themselves into trouble.

On the other hand, if we claim research first, it makes it harder for the cult to claim safely, but makes research less useful since people have a chance to make up a story to fit the insanities from a research claim (unless we don't claim the research target or result?).

Hmm, I'm still not sure which is better. I'm leaning towards insanity claims, but I really don't know.

[Sarag]

LONG NOISE ANALYSIS POST

I am going to assume 6 cult members.

Night 0.

I would guess 5-6 would have crafted fetishes, maybe one grabbed a res kit.

We know they made a fetish of Drench, so that's 1.

If we trust Kise, they fetished him night 0 since you can't craft and pass on the same night. That makes 2.

It seems likely that they made one of arelian since he heard noise that no one claimed to have caused, and he didn't die on night 1 (so he probably wasn't stalked on night 0). We're up to 3.

After that, the following people heard noise and weren't warded, although we know of at least one cause of noise for them:

Mastin (stalked)
zwet (stalked)
Tuberkulos (stalked)
Kise (used protective wards, could have had two fetishes crafted n0)
Exalt/RestFermata (res'd by DeathNote)

I estimate 2-3 people from the above list had fetishes crafted of them (and still in the hands of cultists).

So just based on night 0 noise, the following people may be in danger of being killed by the cult, and would be

decent choices to resuscitate

:

arelian
Kise
RestFermata

If we're lucky, the cult fetished some of the people that were murdered, wasting their actions. They almost certainly lost the one EriktheRed had, except on the off chance that he grabbed some other equipment n0 (if zwet were alive, he could tell us, oh well!)

Night 1

Down to 5 cultists, since EtR was lynched. I would guess that the cultists would assign half their group to submit a name for the ritual to avoid disruption from research. That means only 2 of them can craft fetishes (assuming none of them had to resuscitate a cult-buddy).

We also have the following noises accounted for:

Datadanne (stalked by KoC)
DeathNote (stalked by Datadanne)
RestFermata (warded by Magua)
Magua (used protective wards)
Cass (used protective wards)

It seems unlikely that the cult would bother fetishing Datadanne or DeathNote since their stalkers announced their intentions yesterday. If we believe Magua, then RF wasn't successfully fetished. I'll come back to Magua and Cass in a moment.

The following people heard noise on night 1 and we know of no explanation (

add them to the resuscitate candidate list

):

chenhsi
dramonic
Sajin
Sarag

RestFermata claims to have investigated someone last night so if it was one of the above four, that leaves 3 unexplained noises, 1 more than the number of fetishes I expect. Clearly, there was very little overlap of noise-generating activity, but we must also consider the following possibilities to account for the extra noise:

- we have some fake noise claims today
- there are more than 6 cultists
- the cultists risked the ritual being disrupted (can account for a max of 1 more noise, since we know the ritual did go through, meaning that at least 2 cultists must have submitted a name to cover the two research claims we have)
- someone decided to go murderer after day 1 (possible, since the noise claims were low and may have lead them to think they had little or no competition)
- someone decided to stalk in order to one-shot vig without claiming
- someone has warded, resuscitated or investigated someone without claiming

It's also possible that Magua and/or Cass were targeted by stalk or craft fetish, but I will put them at low risk since that requires us to draw more heavily from the above list of possibilities. Arelian may also have heard noise, or generated noise for someone.

I'm not really sure what to draw from all this, but it's at least good to have an account of what could possibly have taken place.

[ZykeZero]

I have two options for this up coming action, does the team want me to resus someone who we want to keep alive? Like Sarag or nhammen? I won't lie this sort of game is harder for me. Not something I'm used to.

For the record I have not taken any noise causing actions, or heard any.

[ZykeZero]

I have two options for this up coming action, does the team want me to resus someone who we want to keep alive? Like Sarag or nhammen? I won't lie this sort of game is harder for me. Not something I'm used to.

For the record I have not taken any noise causing actions, or heard any.

I've also been watching carefully, making my own lists of who I suspect. If there is no dire need for me to protect anyone I plan on checking for blood.

[Kise]

This game is hard for me as well.

*twitch*

Everyone else has managed to play around the game's set-up, so the usual old scumhunting doesn't look like it'll be effective any time soon, hence why I didn't use my ward (not sure who to trust).

[Sarag]

There are two issues with saying who you will resuscitate:

(1) It leaves you vulnerable to attacks, since res kits do not work on you while you res someone else. This isn't an issue if you are invulnerable (have heard no noise, or were warded the only times you've heard noise).

(2) The cult will target someone who has not been named as a res target, because they know they are more likely to be successful (barring undeclared ressers).

It's harder to get around (2). Perhaps if we had say, 3 people who are invulnerable and have res kits, we could divide the potential res targets into 3 lists. Then each person could randomly pick someone from their sub-list - this would avoid overlapping res's and avoid giving the cult any clear sign of who will be protected and who is left vulnerable.

People who have heard noise but still want to use their res kit can then still do so without declaring it (but should consider not doing so so that they may be protected themselves).

[Percy]

sykedoc replaces arelian.

[Knight of Cydonia]

Alright, I'm back, what've I missed?

[Datadanne]

*Facepalm*

[Knight of Cydonia]

You, sir, have no right to facepalm at ANYONE in this game.
Reading the last few pages, expect thoughts soon.

[sykedoc]

I'm going to attempt to catch up. It'll take me a little bit of time since this game is a bit more complicated than the last few I've been in.

If possible, I'd like to see a tl:dr version or two. It usually lets me get a handle on the views of the other people in the game on what occurred, which i can compare to my view of what occurred

[Magua]

Annoyance at the sheer number of "rereading, will post" soon posts continues.

But, whatever.

Recap of d1:

- Talk about mechanics, very little individual-wise.
- Mastin shows up, claims cult-going-murderer, complains of non-existent RVS.
- Mastin wagon forms, vs the "It's his meta" antiwagon.
- DeathNote wagon forms based on scummy posts.
- ErikTheRed wagon forms based on vote analysis.
- Datadanne wagon forms based on useless posts.
- ErikTheRed and Zwet go back and forth.
- Talk about town utilizing one-shot vigs.
- ErikTheRed gets lynched.

Continuings of the wagons:
- Mastin got vigged / murdered.
- Datadanne claims to be murdering DeathNote tonight (n2). If so, Datadanne is cleared from being one of the murderers who killed n1, and chances of Datadanne being cult are low.

So none of the wagons from d1 are really viable for d2 at this point.

[Magua]

Also,

I will be V/LA from September 2nd through September 8th.

[sykedoc]

Annoyance at the sheer number of "rereading, will post" soon posts continues.

I actually am just reading, not rereading.

[Cass]

Also:
- 99% chance that Zwet robbed the grave of EtR N1, revealing EtR as cult.
- Zwet got murdered/vigged (my money is on murdered) the same night, alas.
- Two others were vigged/murdered that night, + one cultkilled.
- That makes four corpses of unknown alignment (though Zwet and Drench are pretty sure to be town).
- Today again there's very little scumhunting, and even a lack of wagons forming. This is frustrating, so please vote someone asap.

Also, I have 0 insanity. Claiming insanity before research makes more sense to me than the other way around.

[Sarag]

zwet, Tuberkulos and Mastin were likely targeted by people intending to go murderer (probably one of them was Drench). It isn't possible that any of them were targeted based on anything that transpired on day 1 because they would have to have been stalked on night 0.

Hi sykedoc! We have been claiming noise. Once you have had a chance to read up on why, could you let us know if you heard any noise last night?

[JamesBond]

Got the prod, will catch up.

[semioldguy]

But it means that we give the cultists a safe action to claim - they can say they found someone with lower insanity with little controversy, and it gives them a good cover for their own insanity. Although if they accidentally pick an Investigator with some insanity, they could get themselves into trouble.

In this scenario they couldn't accidentally pick an investigator with insanity, since all the insanity claims would be out first and they could only get it wrong if they don't know how to read the thread.

On the other hand, if we claim research first, it makes it harder for the cult to claim safely, but makes research less useful since people have a chance to make up a story to fit the insanities from a research claim (unless we don't claim the research target or result?).

And then you can judge the story to see if it makes sense, plus if we are claiming insanity regularly it should be a red flag if someone's insanity is rising faster than it should. This just seems extremely more likely to catch scum as it gives them one less action to reliably fake-claim to explain away their insanity gain. (but at this point enough people have insanity claimed that it doesn't matter and would be easy to fake)

Night 1

Down to 5 cultists, since EtR was lynched. I would guess that the cultists would assign half their group to submit a name for the ritual to avoid disruption from research. That means only 2 of them can craft fetishes (assuming none of them had to resuscitate a cult-buddy).

Cultists can each perform an action in addition to performing the ritual action. This is right in the rules and has been brought up in discussion at least once before.

[sykedoc]

zwet, Tuberkulos and Mastin were likely targeted by people intending to go murderer (probably one of them was Drench). It isn't possible that any of them were targeted based on anything that transpired on day 1 because they would have to have been stalked on night 0.

Hi sykedoc! We have been claiming noise. Once you have had a chance to read up on why, could you let us know if you heard any noise last night?

Only heard noise night 0.

Still catching up. LOTS of stuff, very confusing.

[semioldguy]

That makes all noises and non-noises claimed. I agree with Sarag's list for likely night targets based on noise analysis.

@Deathnote
I think you should pick 2 or 3 of those players and say that you are going to resuscitate one of them, without being specific as to which one. The reasoning behind this having already been explained.

@Sajin and nhammen
Why did you feel it pertinent to claim having researched, but not go the full claim and tell us who you researched?

[dramonic]

they researched, they know their result. odds are they want to see if X or Y lie about their insanity count.

[Knight of Cydonia]

So, are we going to insanity count claim to see if we can root out any liars for our researchers, or is it not going to be worth it?
If we do it, then I suggest we popcorn it and I volunteer to go first.