Dichotomafia- Games Over

[Fishbulb]

And

that's

what makes him your least likely candidate?

Interesting...

[Norinel]

About 48 hours, no vote changes since last count, no reason to extend. 2 to lynch at deadline, if I hadn't said that yet.

[Talitha]

OK, I looked over the town lynches of the 2 scum Nanook and STD because i thought they would give the most information.
Things of note:
- neither Fuldu or Fishbulb helped lynch Nanook the Godfather
- Fishbulb was earlyish to vote for STD, and didn't waiver after the claim
- Fuldu was hesitant to vote for STD but eventually changed his mind after the claim
- ralphmerridew went after STD immediately on Day 4
- Uraj/King E are making me

very

uneasy with the complete lack of participation on those 2 days.

So in conclusion, I'll keep my vote on Fuldu, and

FOS: Uraj

Why is no-one else voting?

[ralphmerridew]

I'll be away from my computer until after deadline; could

you lock my vote to MoS's

(that is, make me vote for the same person that MoS is voting for)? If that's not possible, set it as a

vote for Fuldu

.

[Fuldu]

Crap. Looking at the way Talitha describes the situation, I'd vote for me. I clearly haven't played very well in this game. I am, however, exactly who I say I am and (since I doubt Norinel will accept ralphm's voting strategy) about to be lynched. My Fishbulb vote was as a result of little preference between the two and the fact that a vote was on Fishbulb already. Since the vote has been removed, I'm back to relative indifference, but ralphm's most recent post seems pro-town (if, again, wrong) where Fishbulb's doesn't.

My interpretation is that Uraj was saying he considered me the least likely candidate because my speculations seemed well-intentioned, which they were. He's willing to grant me the benefit of the doubt because I owned up to it when subsequent evidence contradicted my conclusions. My goals were good ones, even if my results weren't. Whether you agree with the argument or not, saying that it doesn't make sense that such an argument would make me less suspicious in someone's eyes is dishonest.

As a separate appeal to someone who probably won't get the opportunity to change his mind, let me say this. ralphm, we were highly successful scum together in More Mountainous. Does my behavior in this game accord in any way with my strategy for success in that game? Would it make sense for me to use a wholly different strategy here simply to fool you?

[Uraj45]

Well, I'm not really sure what the whole lynch status is right now, but I'll

vote ralphmerridew

.
And this is basically what I was saying Fuldu though it's not really the owning up part that makes me feel that way.

[Fishbulb]

I was delaying voting because I just wasn't sure. I had seen the same thing Talitha had mentioned, but it didn't seem concrete enough. But down to the wire, and it looks like I'm not going to get any new information to work with, so it's time to go with my gut.

Unfortunately, Fuldu has been an active player, so it makes it difficult to hang him when we are having trouble keeping the game moving.

If I'm wrong you guys will probably hang me tomorrow, or if I'm right and there are any scum left I'm dead tonight, so my time in this game will probably be ending shortly as well.

Vote: Fuldu

[Coron]

Fuldu and Fishbulb are at this point my very top suspicions.

vote: fishbulb

he was acting like he had good info yesterday, now he claims townie, one of the only people that would do that is scum(or wierd town) best lead in my opinion.

[Norinel]

About 23 hours. I don't think I'll be letting rm's vote scheme slide, although it wouldn't affect who would be lynched if the deadline were right now.

Vote Count:

Fuldu- 3 (Talitha, ralphmerridew, Fishbulb)
Fishbulb- 2 (Fuldu, Coron)
ralphmerridew- 1 (Uraj45)

Not voting (1): Mastermind of Sin

4 to lynch, 2 at deadline.

[Norinel]

And with no posts between now and then, it's just like the deadline were right now. End of day count is in the last post.

I missed a couple of these:

The Top 10 Reasons Dichotomafia != Tuthrededmafya:

10. Werewolfs are cool. (PeaceBringer, STD, King Enigma)
9. It's two, two, two roles in one! (FD, Fishbulb, tss)
8. Wacky can't count. (Wacky's fourth of ten reasons.)
7. Dichotomafia has a much cooler name (MMCL)
6. I rock the modding scene harder than those mathslamm guys (lulu muumuu, similar sentiments expressed by ralphmerridew)
5. Dichotomafia is not penguin excrement. (Inspired by IS)
4. Two games, good; two mods, bad. (Fuldu)

Town Day 5/Village Night 5

Much confusion, including over who died last night, but the arguments come, if a bit sputtery. Time advances and the sun sets with Fuldu having the most evil glares at him. He is drug to the tree, and it's revealed that nothing about was particularly mafiaish, or townish for that matter.

Fuldu (Townie) - lynched Day 5 by the Town

It is now Night 6 in the Town, send choices by the end of the Village's Day.

And everyone left goes through the town goes to sleep, village wakes up routine again, only to find that, yet again, two do not wake up. The first is NanookTheWolf, who despite his name, has only mystic implements in his house as opposed to wolfish ones.

NanookTheWolf (Seer) - mauled Night 5 in the Village

The second is halfpint, again shot in a non-werewolf like fashion. Apparently, the herbs placed about her house served no deterrent to her killer.

halfpint (Wolfsbane) - shot Night 5 in the Village.

It is now Day 5 in the Village, 3 to lynch.

(Wolfsbane is bulletproof vest, immune to werewolf attacks at night, excepting the endgame massacre.)

[ralphmerridew]

Back from the fishing trip. PB, what's your role?

[Save The Dragons]

First of all, props to RM for being the only one left alive in both games.

Second of all, someone remind me why PB was confirmed again?

Third of all, I'm thinking we should lynch either PB or MGM and I'll shoot the other, and then it'll just be myself and the masons (which are pretty much confirmed, since Tally's proven and came out, otherwise I'd be skeptical).

[the silent speaker]

PB was named innocent by cop willows_weep, and with the Dogfather dead a sane cop would have found a wolfy PB guilty. I'm not sure why it's assumed that willows wasn't naive, but there you have it.

We have five people left. One is a werewolf, and (assuming not PB) that's Mgm; STD has an alibi for the mauling, in that he was at the shooting. BUT. It's still possible that STD is a serial killer.
Let's see. In that case there are two scum alive; lynching either wipes out his group and day breaks with three. I assume those three will (if we lynch STD) be Mgm, PB and ralph, and then we have to hope that ralph guesses right. There's a fair chance of it, since Mgm is much likelier to be scum IMO than PeaceBringer is, but there's still a fair chance of it going sour. Call it ballpark two-thirds town win in that case.
If we follow STD's plan to the letter, best case is he's town and the one scum is dead by the end of the night; worst case is we lynch the wrong wolf candidate, there are four going into the night, and (since this is worst case) two of them are scum. If the mafia kills one of the masons we've lost, since there will be two alive in the morning and one of them a serial killer -- and that's if STD doesn't simply decide to cross us all the way up. Middle case is we lynch the right wolf, and go into night with one scum in four and we know just who it is: STD. Two guaranteed wins, one very likely loss, overall odds roughly 70%.
If we lynch and STD doesn't kill: 1. We lynch right. Game over, town win. STD will cross us up if he's scum but then we just lynch him tomorrow. 2. We lynch wrong. Night falls with four alive. If STD is town, he won't cross us and three wake up, one scum. We lynch that one and bingo. If however STD is scum, I think we're stuck again in the worst case above.
Wait. If STD is scum and doesn't cross us, then what? Five alive now; four go into night. Three wake, we lynch one, two go into night... no, I think we lose then. Crap.

Bottom line is this. We have to reckon with one mauling tomorrow anyway unless we get the wolf today, and if we do get the wolf, STD would be killing a townie. So we have to lynch right between Mgm and PB today irrespective of all other considerations. OK then. Best go with the plan from yesterday then and

vote: Mgm

. STD, if Mgm is town shoot PB,

and not otherwise.

[PeaceBringer]

As to my role, simple villager.

Mgm has to be the wolf, vote Mgm

[Save The Dragons]

Don't lynch MGM. Posting to follow.

[Save The Dragons]

And by the above statement, I of course me don't lynch MGM until I post, not don't lynch him ever.

TSS: Your analysis is excellent, yet it lacks context.

If MGM is scum, either the game will end, or there's one more scum left, correct?

If it's PB, then why shouldn't I vig him? I know it's not me, and I know it's not a mason. So therefore, W_W must've had a different sanity.

If it's me, then telling me not to kill PB means that you must have a different sanity.

Now I'm sure you're going to say something to prove me utterly wrong, and that is why we shouldn't lynch MGM until I completely understand the ramifications. Sorry to delay the innevitable.

[Save The Dragons]

And by the above statement, I of course me

AN

don't lynch MGM until I post, not don't lynch him ever.

[ralphmerridew]

How about this strategy:

1) Today, town lynches MgM.
2) If the game doesn't end, STD kills PB; if PB is mafia, he can kill whomever he wants.
3) Next day, if game isn't over, town lynches STD.

I think the only way that plan will fail is if MgM and PB are werewolves, and STD is an SK. Since that would come to 5 maf and 1 sk out of 16 people, I think we can safely assume that won't happen.

Oh, MgM, before we lynch you, could you confirm that you and MoS were the only masons in town? (Not that there's any real doubt about it.)

[Mgm]

Damned! I knew I was going to become a target eventually. I can be short about things. STD is right. It wouldn't be smart to lynch me and his eagerness to get me lynched makes PB quite suspicious in my eyes.

As to my role, simple villager.
Mgm has to be the wolf, vote Mgm

I've seen such statements from scum who smelled a quick victory.

Wasn't he also the last to claim his role? Willows_weep could've had a different sanity (I'd have to check), so it doesn't exclude PB being scum.

It's either me or him, as I think the the masons are clear and we need STD to shoot the wolf in case of a faulty lynch so my vote won't be surprising.

Vote: Peacebringer

Please don't rush this lynch. I need some more time to plead my case and review some ideas. The site is acting up as well. You don't have anything to lose by waiting.

[Mgm]

I've seen such statements from scum who smelled a quick victory.

I meant to say "

mostly

from scum" in that quote.

As for the mason thingy. If memory serves me correct, me and MOS were indeed the only 2 masons in the town, but I'll dig up my PM to be sure.

[the silent speaker]

The thing is, ralph, that once we lynch Mgm and STD kills PeaceBringer

and Peacebringer kills whoever

, there will only be two people left. If STD is scum (and I grant that he's probably not) he won't be lynchable.

STD, if Mgm is town, I do want you to shoot PB. I want you to be clearly under orders *not* to shoot him if Mgm is scum mainly to prevent oopsies. If PB is scum too, so that day breaks with yet another mauling (which makes five werewolves in a town of sixteen!) we will be safe enough with three people alive without your kill, two of whom will know exactly who to vote for; and if day breaks with a shooting, we know where your loyalties lie.

All of this is worst-case scenario. I expect Mgm to be the last werewolf and the lynch of him to end the game, especially since the shootings didn't start until two nights ago.

[Mgm]

I'm not the last wolf. Doesn't it count for anything that I was the one to start the idea of having the last few players claim yester-village-day? Isn't PB's stalling enough reason to lynch him?

I'm not really sure whether STD is town or not, but at least he's trying to kill werewolves.

STD: Kill PB if I'm lynched. If you're scum it win's you the game, if not - it bags the game for the town.

[Save The Dragons]

MGM: No, I never said it wouldn't be smart to lynch you. I said not to lynch until I posted. I've posted, I'm happy to lynch you.

TSS: If day breaks with a shooting, then there can't BE a dispute as to my loyalty. If I'm town, I've saved the town one day, and all that'll be left is two of the three of us. Otherwise, I'm scum. Which of course, being the endgame, I wouldn't listen to you. I know arguing with you doesn't seem like the smartest thing to do, and the last thing I'd want is for you to question my moral ambiguoity, but I'm meerly saying that your situation's domain does not rest in our current situation.

PB is dead tonight, if MGM is not the last wolf. Sorry.

[Save The Dragons]

MGM: No, I never said it wouldn't be smart to lynch you. I said not to lynch until I posted. I've posted, I'm happy to lynch you.

TSS: If day breaks with a shooting, then there can't BE a dispute as to my loyalty. If I'm town, I've saved the town one day, and all that'll be left is two of the three of us. Otherwise, I'm scum. Which of course, being the endgame, I wouldn't listen to you. I know arguing with you doesn't seem like the smartest thing to do, and the last thing I'd want is for you to question my moral ambiguoity, but I'm meerly saying that your situation's domain does not rest in our current situation.

PB is dead tonight, if MGM is not the last wolf. Sorry.

[Save The Dragons]

MGM: No, I never said it wouldn't be smart to lynch you. I said not to lynch until I posted. I've posted, I'm happy to lynch you.

TSS: If day breaks with a shooting, then there can't BE a dispute as to my loyalty. If I'm town, I've saved the town one day, and all that'll be left is two of the three of us. Otherwise, I'm scum. Which of course, being the endgame, I wouldn't listen to you. I know arguing with you doesn't seem like the smartest thing to do, and the last thing I'd want is for you to question my moral ambiguoity, but I'm meerly saying that your situation's domain does not rest in our current situation.

PB is dead tonight, if MGM is not the last wolf. Sorry.