Mini 808 - Rabbit Doubt Mafia: Over!

[Kmd4390]

Batt, Hmm. So you think we are hiding from ALL actions and not just kills? You are actually probably right. I didn't think of that before..

Looker, didn't I suspect Don before he suspected me? I could be wrong, but my point is I suspected him long before today.

And I don't support a straight up lurker lynch on Day 3. Why did you include Iec as a lurker? Mastin flaked from the site, so he's gonna be replaced. Wait, you included Batt too. Why? Haylen should show up. I hope..

[don_johnson]

Kmd voting DJ isn't OMGUS. He started the wagon on DJ yesterday on the basis of his voting record. Why would you want Kmd to vote Mastin to "activate inactive players"? Mastin doesn't exist.

sorry, but i don't recall a case on me ever being fleshed out. if its going to be rehashed today then i would like some sort of summary of the case. this may be a bit hypocritical of me to ask for as i will most likely not be contributing a giant case today, but whatever. this game is dragging on and i don't know what to do.

statistically speaking, spyrex is most likely not scum, but that's a whole nother story...

[Kmd4390]

Don,

Vote Don_Johnson

. Didn't get enough attention as Zt lurked and Don wasn't caught up yet. Don, you either weren't caught up and hammered anyway OR you caught up without giving us your opinions and hammered. Either way, it's scummy.

This was my original reason for voting you along with my look at the lynching wagon. I also made some points in our back and forth. I thought I remembered doing a bulleted-point case, but I just found out that using Ctrl+F to search "Don" brings up far too much "don't" to be useful.

[Kmd4390]

Oh, I found it.

Porque tu eres muy scummy.
-Vote Count analysis pins you as a likely suspect
-The hammer didn't seem like a town hammer
-Zt pretty much lurked the same way he did in Zazie's last modded game as scum
-You remind me of your scum game in Speed Dating (posting frequency, lack of content, quick to act, etc)

[don_johnson]

-

Vote Count analysis pins you as a likely suspect

how? is this point still relevant?

-The hammer didn't seem like a town hammer

why not? i checked every room, hammered. if anything it should be nulltell.

-Zt pretty much lurked the same way he did in Zazie's last modded game as scum

indefensible, but seems to be a meta argument.

-You remind me of your scum game in Speed Dating (posting frequency, lack of content, quick to act, etc)

anyone agreeing with this should read the game and see if they agree. my play is almost completely different. meta arguments are bad in general, but this one doesn't even fit.

do you really still think i'm scum?

[Looker]

I simply said that because that's what

I

was trying to do. I was trying to let enough people vote KMD so that I could hammer. Not that I don't enjoy your company, it's just that me allowing you to live is a liability. You were head to head with Myk, who turned up town D1, and stayed on me, who I know to be town, the entire time D2. I'm not saying that DJ is town, I'm simply stating that I would be much more comfortable if I at least

attempted

to get you lynched. Ergo,

unvote; vote kmd

[Iecerint]

lolwat @ Looker.

Vote: Looker

. What on earth are you talking about?

wat @ Spyrex. Is he the new Mastin? Would make me happy.

Vote count analysis is still against you, DJ, because you were on the wagon for both town lynches. I don't know about the meta arguments against you one way or the other. Could one of you provide a link to the game in question? It seems like answering "is DJ lurking" would be pretty straightforward. Granted, you've stopped lurking since then, but there were some extenuating circumstances.

Kmd hasn't mentioned your "not everyone needs to scumhunt" comment.

[Kmd4390]

-

Vote Count analysis pins you as a likely suspect

how? is this point still relevant?

Yeah, it is. You hammered Day 1 without giving us an "I'm caught up, here's my thoughts" post and then placed the L-2 vote on Greg Day 2. I'm going old school here. Oh, and Looker is your buddy for voting late too. Tenchi (CSL) is the other scum.

-The hammer didn't seem like a town hammer

why not? i checked every room, hammered. if anything it should be nulltell.

Checking the rooms takes the place of scumhunting?

-Zt pretty much lurked the same way he did in Zazie's last modded game as scum

indefensible, but seems to be a meta argument.

Yep.

-You remind me of your scum game in Speed Dating (posting frequency, lack of content, quick to act, etc)

anyone agreeing with this should read the game and see if they agree. my play is almost completely different. meta arguments are bad in general, but this one doesn't even fit.

Nothing wrong with meta. And it actually fits perfectly.

do you really still think i'm scum?

Yeah.

I simply said that because that's what

I

was trying to do. I was trying to let enough people vote KMD so that I could hammer. Not that I don't enjoy your company, it's just that me allowing you to live is a liability. You were head to head with Myk, who turned up town D1, and stayed on me, who I know to be town, the entire time D2. I'm not saying that DJ is town, I'm simply stating that I would be much more comfortable if I at least

attempted

to get you lynched. Ergo,

unvote; vote kmd

Being wrong is a scumtell? And on someone who loves to bus?

------------------

Iec, Speed Dating

[Iecerint]

I think being wrong is actually a little bit of a scumtell. Not that you're uniquely guilty of it atm.

Kmd, why are you excluding MSG from the scum trifecta? It seems like he voted Greg even later than Looker. Also, why're you including Tenchi? Since Tenchi may as well not exist (CSL), it seems like it has to be PoE, but I don't understand the basis of your eliminations.

[Kmd4390]

If being wrong is a scumtell, I was obvscum from Day 1.

I think an inactive at the end of Day 2 is scum. Tenchi fits that best IMO.

[Iecerint]

Being wrong is a slight scumtell because scum has a motive to be wrong and town doesn't. Overreliance on this scumtell is also a scumtell, though, since it's, ye know, only slight.

Did Tenchi uniquely abandon this game, or did he drop several games at once? It's true that Tenchi's spot went empty a little earlier than the others, but I think the D2 cutoff is more because Zaz had trouble finding a replacement than that Tenchi's situation is so much different than Phily's or Mastin's.

[Looker]

Iec's Post 1331 - Hypocrisy or confusion? Why exactly are you voting me?

KMD's Post 1332 -You're the most obvious choice to me. Whether a scumtell or not, I can't see the benefit of consecutive "wrongs". Who's to say that you won't be "wrong" again or that you aren't being intentionally "wrong"? This is why I said not attempting to lynch you would be a liability for me. Does that make any sense cuz I could try and rephrase it...

DISCUSS!

[Iecerint]

Kmd has been wrong once and right once (well, wrong twice if you count Kre). You, DJ, and Batt have been wrong on both lynches. This is literally more wrong than Kmd, but you're voting Kmd for being wrong. That makes no sense. That's why I'm voting you. Please clarify your read on Kmd if there's more to it.

[Looker]

What do you mean by right once? Do you mean his vote on me? And if not KMD, then who? Who do you suspect? Me?

[Kmd4390]

Iec, town doesn't have the knowledge of everyone's alignment coming into the game. Town has a high chance of being wrong. Just because scum can choose to be wrong, doesn't mean town is 100% accurate every time.

I don't suspect Tenchi for flaking. I suspect Tenchi for his play. (FTR, I think Tenchi is currently modding a game and hasn't flaked from that.)

Looker, so someone who is wrong from the beginning is likely to continue being wrong? Don't tell me you haven't seen the movie 21. I have a habit of tunneling. So I usually stick with my first few suspects until they die. When I picked Myko as scum, I had a 3/11 chance of being right. Not very good odds. Myko was lynched. I was wrong. On Day 2, I picked Don as my top suspect. At this time, I had a 3/9 (1/3) chance of being right. Better odds. The more times I am wrong and pick a new suspect, the better chance I have of being right. So if your argument is that because I was wrong before, I'll be wrong again, you have things backwards. It benefits the town to keep me alive with this logic. Discuss THAT! XP

Looker, Iec is saying I was right once because I hardcore defended Gregory and he flipped town.

[Iecerint]

Kmd was right about Greg.

I don't think I've ever said that town will be 100% accurate; I'm just saying that their "reads" are more likely to be accurate than are scum's. So they're less likely to be wrong on average (or I'd be willing to bet as much). The alternative would force me to believe that busing happens more frequently than it actually does as far as I've seen.

Fair enough on Tenchi. I'm not crazy about your reported odds on myko and DJ, though. Relying purely on the numbers ignores the influence of actual play on the probability of being correct, which I see as slightly scummy.

[Kmd4390]

I still have to disagree on the right/wrong thing, but we are getting into MD territory unless you suspect me for being wrong. My odds thing was to counter Looker's logic that I should be lynched regardless of alignment because I was wrong about Myko and could hurt the town, because statistically, I'm more likely to be right about Don than I was about Myko. And if Don is lynched and is town, I'm even more likely to be right tomorrow.

[don_johnson]

wonderful link. i would love a third party opinion on kmd's comparison of my play here to my play in speed dating.

basically kmd is admittedly basing his lynch probability on random selection which undermines the idea that his suspicions are even valid.

i explained why i didn't make a "catch-up" post, but saying i haven't given my thoughts is ridiculous. much like the accusation yesterday of the "extension request" issue.

checking the rooms was an alternative form of scum hunting. if you notice i posted a report on my findings the very next day and, in fact, based my vote off of those findings. perhaps you need to read the thread more closely?

Being wrong is a scumtell? And on someone who loves to bus?

^^ uber hypocritical. dj is scum because of his voting record(being wrong twice), but if kmd is accused of being wrong it is suddenly a questionable tell.

happy with my vote. encouraging others to lynch kmd.

[Iecerint]

Not crazy about Kmd's explanation for his use of random statistics. I agree with DJ's most recent post as far as Kmd's recent play is concerned. If we want to get really silly, we could assert that Kmd should change his suspect because of the Monty Hall problem, so he shouldn't suspect DJ. We could also assert that DJ is more likely to be right than Kmd for the same reason. (Let me know if Monty Hall doesn't apply for whatever reason; I may not have thought it through correctly.) This kind of logic ignores actual play and promotes random play, which I consider anti-town at best.

However, I don't understand DJ's claim that "checking the rooms was an alternate form of scumhunting." That sounds a little silly to me, since I believe he's already stated that the doors didn't do anything for him.

I may be able to review SD over the weekend. I have a major exam Friday.

[don_johnson]

you don't think investigating our surroundings counts towards scumhunting? why don't we all just stay in the corridor then? batt and kmd claim to have found "abilities" within rooms, and on day 1 mole claimed to have been given a post restriction from simply entering a room. investigating the rooms makes sense any way you look at it.. feeling that the myko lynch was inevitable, i did what "made sense" and moved the game along.

[Iecerint]

There are other explanations for looking around in rooms, as the business with Batt and the Storage Room from the early game demonstrate. The same bonuses that can apply to town players probably apply to scum. So looking in rooms is certainly playing to win, but it's not playing to win for any particular alignment.

Iecerint enters Corridor, if necessary.
Iecerint enters Room 3

.

[Looker]

Bookmark.

[Kmd4390]

Wow. When did I

EVER

say anything was random about my vote on you?

Yes, you've given thoughts NOW, but not at the time of your hammer.

So you are admitting that you checked rooms INSTEAD of scumhunting. I don't even know what to say to that one...

I'm not saying you are scum for being wrong. Not everyone on the mislynches is scum. It's impossible. I'm saying that most any mislynch will include scum and based on where your votes lie on both wagons, combined with context and my experience with you in a past game, you fit the bill as scum better than anyone else in this game.

--------------

Iec, why are you buying that anything about my vote is random? It's completely backed with logic. If you mean my smartass response to Looker about being wrong leading to being right later, then I can't believe that you are taking it seriously. If you mean my vote count analysis, then hey, it's worked before.

Call me dumb, but what is Monty Hall?

---------------

Back to Don. No, checking rooms gives us abilites, NOT in-thread scumhunting. Scumhunting is more important.

[Iecerint]

Monty Hall on Wikipedia.

Kmd, I don't think that your vote on DJ is random; I think you've provided good reasons for it. Rather, I was referring to your response to Looker, where you assumed random lynches. Your comment in post 1341 led me to believe that you were serious about it.

[Kmd4390]

Oh. Yeah. That. That was my smartass response at Looker. lol. I wasn't assuming random lynches though. 1341 is me not knowing when to stop. XD