Newbie 817 (Game over!)

[bouchedufou]

Ok, bugger. I'm more inclined to listen to what you say, since Petunho was town. And what you say makes sense in that Starbuck seems to be covering herself when she appears to be "defending" hiphop on day1, then attacking his actions. But then, I was thinking generally the same thing along the lines of hiphop. And just about everybody voted Maemuki. What sucks is that it seems we don't have a doctor or cop.

Can we hear what Crazy and VRK think?

[Starbuck]

@start - Where did I deny ever defending him? That's a very strong accusation and if you are going to make it, I would like to see a direct quote.

I also DID make my case on Mae and DID state that besides hiphop that she was scummiest to me. I was wrong. Unfortunately now, we are in LYLO. We need to be very careful. You came right out of the gate voting and I think you are trying to push for a quicklynch.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Sorry guys I need a day or so. I was down in NC Friday looking for a new house and I am not back yet mentally. I am going to do game Mod stuff tonight and read over things.

[startransmission]

@start - Where did I deny ever defending him? That's a very strong accusation and if you are going to make it, I would like to see a direct quote.

So when did you defend him?

As I said, I brought up in post 159 that it seemed that you were perhaps taking hiphop under your wing, and defending his early posts. You responded in the very next post (160) that I was incorrect. I brought this up only to correct bouche. I don't see how this is a very strong accusation, you as well as me and several others have been on hiphops case for alot of day 1 and all of day 2. This has little to do with my case against you.

I also DID make my case on Mae and DID state that besides hiphop that she was scummiest to me. I was wrong. Unfortunately now, we are in LYLO. We need to be very careful.

So you made cases against the two townies that making a case against was easiest. Especially when other townies shared their frustration of Maes play. It was easy to piggyback, and the timing of your vote switch on Day 1 suggests that is exactly what you did. You're good at being scum, and good scum keep their options open.

You came right out of the gate voting and I think you are trying to push for a quicklynch.

Nope, I'd like to take full advantage of this day- as I don't know who your partner is. In fact, if others put you at L-1 early, I'm pulling my vote. I don't want to run the risk of your partner bussing you and ending the day too early.

And anyways, I said at the end of day 2 that if hiphop flipped town I would be going after you, so there shouldn't be any surprise here.

[crazypianist1116]

Rereading with knowledge that hiphop and Petunho are town.

[Starbuck]

The only time I defended hiphop was when he first replaced in because he did replace a very shitty player. I did want to give him a chance to redeem himself since most of the votes that were on him were due to his predecessor's lurking.

Where did I piggyback? I made my own accusations of Mae via post 147, and I made my own accusations of hiphop. So if you are going to say that I was piggybacking, I'd like you to provide an example.

[startransmission]

@ Starbuck, let's say you're town. Who do you suspect as scum right now?

I'll lay out my case against you

again

tomorrow, but in the meantime we have time, and I want to know where you would place your vote.

[crazypianist1116]

Prod bouched and vrk please.

Currently reading. Sorry I'm taking so long, I'm almost done.

[Elmo]

Day 3, Vote Count #1

Starbuck <- startransmission

Not voting: crazypianist1116, bouchedufou, Starbuck, Vel-Rahn Koon.

The

deadline

is Thursday 1st October, 22:00 UTC, which is 16 days, 1 hour and 6 minutes from this post. If deadline hits, there will be No Lynch.
With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch. bouchedufou & Vel-Rahn Koon have been prodded.

[startransmission]

Well, this bodes poorly for a town win. Scummy McScummerson and I are the only ones posting, and she still hasn't responded to my question about who she finds scummy.

jesus christ you people

QFT

[bouchedufou]

Yikes. Feeling slightly depressed, and more than a big clueless. Was convinced hiphop was scum. And he isn't. No-one's really posting anything substantial at all. And VRK seems to be busy.

sigh. Time to reread again, I suppose, and see if anything jumps out this time.

[bouchedufou]

^ bit clueless

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Sorry, I'm here. FYI: I am moving at the end of the month, and I may need to be replaced if I can't get internet access. No worries for now, but it could be an issue later.

I am with start in that starbuck is probably one of our scum. The switch to mae seems to be a switch of convenience to ensure a lynch, no matter how you try to spin it ("she was my 2nd target").

but who is number two? I was thinking start is probably town, but I'm not terribly excited by the fact that he's drumming up accusations against starbuck (piggybacking) and then can't or won't provide examples. Either respond to starbuck's request or come up with a better argument - this is something you're accusing starbuck of doing, yet you're doing it yourself. You're also using a subtle Appeal to Emotion with 384.

The opening sentence of 378 would tend to be a null-tell, given that we now know that hiphop is Town, so why bring it up? And the rest of the case is you saying she piggy backed against the two easiest players. Would you have voted for anyone different? I 100% agree with your 299 - the timing of the vote switch was WAY wrong, and she was called out on it by petunho and yourself.

But, I don't see how you can call any of 378 a case. Therefore I'm going to throw out another radical idea for a pair -

starbuck and start

. That's a very very VERY weak "case", to be honest. It looks good on the surface, but it's got no substance. Starbuck formulated her own ideas from what I see; I don't see piggybacking. And really, she went after the people who were scummiest at the time, just like the rest of us. The one big point you have against starbuck, which I whoeheartedly agree with, is that she switched her vote to Mae at the end of Day 1, and it looks very, very, very opportunistic. For that one reason I see starbuck as being probable scum. But there are two left. You're formulation of this "case" is making me lean towards you as the other. You and starbuck being buddies also means that you can feel free to throw that vote in LyLo, knowing with full confidence that there's no way for a scum quicklynch, and setting yourself up for a great endgame after a huge bus.

I would like to hear bouched and crazy take stances and formulate their own opinions, and not just piggy back in here. Both of you have given very little insight into your thought processes and opinions, and that needs to stop today so we can win this game. It is most likely that one or both of you is going to end up being in the endgame - if we don't get opinions out of you today that help us determine alignment it could be used as a possible point against you tomorrow.

[startransmission]

but who is number two? I was thinking start is probably town, but I'm not terribly excited by the fact that he's drumming up accusations against starbuck (piggybacking) and then can't or won't provide examples. Either respond to starbuck's request or come up with a better argument - this is something you're accusing starbuck of doing, yet you're doing it yourself. You're also using a subtle Appeal to Emotion with 384.

What I'm saying isn't coming out of left field. She asks me to point out where she said she never defended hiphop, and I point to post 160. I'm not going to go through the trouble of making a wall o' text quotewar post about that, because it's irrelevent and has nothing to do with my case. Next she asks where she piggybacks... I'm already making a case that she switched her vote to Mae when it was convenient for her to do so, and the fact that she expressed dislike for Maes behavior long before she put her vote on her isn't convincing me of anything.

And what appeal to emotion? 384 was rather regrettable, but I'm frustrated at the silence.

The opening sentence of 378 would tend to be a null-tell, given that we now know that hiphop is Town, so why bring it up? And the rest of the case is you saying she piggy backed against the two easiest players. Would you have voted for anyone different?

No, I'm happy with my votes, if not the outcomes. My point is that it's easy to set up a precedent for voting somebody when the wagon arrives if you've already echoed what town has to say about that person. When it's an obvious problem (like Mae or hiphop) it's a wet dream because you can actually attack and appear to be scumhunting. She says she had pointed out her issues with Mae before she switched votes, and my point is that's what good scum do. This wagons gone kaput? No problem, I can jump on this one, I've already complained about the person involved.

But, I don't see how you can call any of 378 a case.

Disregard the hiphop stuff (this all came from me responding to bouche's post 375) I want to be done with it. The second paragraph ties in with my case completely.

Therefore I'm going to throw out another radical idea for a pair -

starbuck and start

.

Holy shit. First it was Starbuck and hiphop as the crazy pairing, and now it's Starbuck and I? If we were partners then this little ruse leading to me bussing her would not be necessary. We could have easily played these last two days as we have been and gotten the people we wanted dead lynched and nked without ever really having to work in concert. In fact the only time Starbuck and I communicated on Day 2 was when I voted her. And frankly, the level of discussion today would have been ace for Starbuck and I were we scumbuddies. No bussing necessary, we could go for the win together.

Look, you get one point of my case, but I think you're confusing some other observational stuff as part of my case. My case is simple and kinda weak in that it makes one big assumption, and that only I and scum know that I'm town. I'll quote myself, as I love to do that.

Day 1, Vote Count #11
Maemuki (5) <- Petunho, startransmission, iamausername, Starbuck, hiphop
hiphop (2) <- crazypianist1116, bouchedufou

This is the final vote count. I'm convinced that scum is somewhere on the Mae wagon. I don't believe Petunho to be scum, I got little scum read out of his predecessor and if he were scum he would be able to reasonably put hiphop at L-1 and avoid being the hammer. Nobody would question him as the momentum was going against hiphop anyhow. He instead chose to vote Mae, and supplied good reasoning. The next vote is myself. While I know myself to be town, none of you (except the mafia) do, so this part is a bit academic. But... I vote for Mae as well, about a day later. I say why I won't get on the hiphop wagon besides there being some valid reasons to vote him, and echo what I've said before about Mae. I found her scummier, and my vote makes two. Next is iamausername, about two hours after my vote- now is where things go fast. He supplies the same reasons as everybody else, and he is now proven town.

This is where things get tricky. Despite being very vocal against hiphop, once three votes quickly stack up against Mae, Starbuck moves into that sweet spot I was talking about with Petunho and hiphop and puts Mae at L-1. This happens within an hour of iamausersname vote.

And now the hammer. hiphop supplies it, just before the deadline. This is about two hours after Mae was placed at L-1. During that two hours both hiphop and Mae were active. Mae claims, but time is out. hiphop figures that a lynch is better than a no lynch (despite not thinking Mae was scum, which still bothers me) and does the deed.

So, given that my list of suspects is down to two, let's look at the possibilities.

1. Starbuck is scum. Her main candidate clearly fell through; with time running out the hiphop wagon was sputtering. Three votes quickly stack against another viable candidate. She has (as had virtually everybody else) already brought up her issues with Mae, so a vote would have precedent in argument. Soon (within an hour) after the third vote comes in she strikes, putting Mae at L-1 and avoiding being the hammer. This part is important, she doesn't wait too long for somebody else to grab the L-2 spot, she nabs it quite quickly. Nothing left to do now but hope that either VRK or hiphop takes the bait. Either way it's a win, either her primary candidate for a lynch is stuck with the hammer, or the IC is.

2. hiphop is scum. Everybody feels more comfortable with a Mae lynch because she was scummy, and once she's placed at L-1 hiphop takes advantage and uses the 22% or whatever thing as a crutch to do his dirty deed.

So, my logic for this whole argument is that I'm positive that scum was on the Mae wagon. Process of elimination leads me to Starbuck. I know that people can point out that I may be the scum on that wagon, but all I can say to that is look at the timing. It can also be pointed out that perhaps only town was on that wagon, and both scum looked on with glee. Perhaps, but again I would point to Starbucks timing.

[crazypianist1116]

I'm pleading the I just got my wisdom teeth taken out case.

[bouchedufou]

As an observation, is it worth pointing out that Startransmission was the only active player here? Now, I understand that VRK's busy, but in a situation like this, normally, do scum post a lot/less, or is there not pattern here? Because Starbuck seems to not be posting much. And crazy and me are pretty much posting fluff, atm.

[startransmission]

Elmo, can we get a prod on Starbuck?

[Starbuck]

I posted my V/LA in the V/LA thread. I have military stuff (command wide inspection/inventory) going on all this week and a bit of next. I am off and on. I'm following along, but I really don't have time right this second to make the analytical post that I want to. I should be able to catch up on all my games on Sunday. I apologize for the inconvenience but that's the way of life when you are in the military.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

@ start: I'm digesting your response. I'll post more later, but before I say anything else I want opinions from our mystery guests.

As an observation, is it worth pointing out that Startransmission was the only active player here? Now, I understand that VRK's busy, but in a situation like this, normally, do scum post a lot/less, or is there not pattern here? Because Starbuck seems to not be posting much. And crazy and me

are pretty much posting fluff

, atm.

The question you're asking is a good one, but it comes down to a player's meta (meta = metagaming. If you've ever played a Pen and Pencil RPG before you'll understand the term, if not, click here). Different players will act differently in the various Mafia roles, and you're going to need to read other games to get a meta on those players to answer that question.

What do you think of start's case?

What do you think of starbuck's response?

What do you think of my whacko scenario?

Your opinion is

vital

to the game, especially in the end stages of days 3 and 4. You don't have to be perfect, but you do have to participate. This is a Newbie game so that you can practice. You've now got 2+ "days" of stuff to look back and see the type of questions you should be asking. If you need to, just start with the three questions I've posted above and answer them. But don't just give one liners - let us see your thought processes.

If you think any/all of us are full of shit, then SAY SO!!! If you read something and think "well that's crap" then by all means, post why! Shooting holes in someone's logic will only help by 1) forcing them to refocus their efforts, 2) abandon the questioning and maybe realize they're tunneling/off base, or 3) expose a possible scum (yourself or the person you're questioning).

Come up with your own theory if you have one. But do something other than fluffpost. You are not helping your team out, whichever team that is. If you're scum, you're making yourself a target by fence-sitting and not giving an opinion. If you're town, you're making yourself an easy target for a mislynch. This is why it's vital for everyone to post, especially scum. Scum are damned if you do, damned if you don't in this game. Either you don't post and you get painted as a lurker, or you do post and potentially give something away. It's not perfect, but it's the best theoretical line under which the game operates.

Crazy, same for you. Sorry about your teeth - that sucks. Hope you feel better soon and get something posted.

[bouchedufou]

as soon as momentum went against Bagsquad, this game got very very quiet. It wreaks of scum sitting on thier hands and waiting for day two.

Considering he was voting BagSquad at the time, this does not sit well with me.

explanation,

You weren't just voting for BagSquad, you were simultaneously voting for BagSquad and suggesting that scum were trying to get BagSquad lynched. That's what I have a problem with.

Just something I thought was interesting, maybe keep that in mind. I'm about a third of the way through, but I'll continue later.

What I'm finding suspicious about VRK is that he hasn't done much the whole game. Apart from one analysis post (I'll post what I think about that when I reach it), he's been very inactive. Admittedly, he's been busy. But then his main contributions that I can remember off the top of my head have been 2 random, crazy suggestions- hiphop/starbuck and now starbuck/startran. There really hasn't been any reasoning behind those suspicions of his, and they've really only served to muddy the waters for me.

Starbuck, from my reading so far just doesn't seem very scummy. Like VRK, she's posted advice to newbies (perhaps sub-consciously biasing me towards her), but she's also made some pretty full-on posts the whole way through, outlining suspicions and all. And I just don't think Startran's views against Starbuck are valid.

Bringing me back to Startran, your second vote on Maemuki maybe should also bear looking into?

On Crazy? Well, he's sort of like me in that he hasn't done much at all. Plus he seems to have a decent reason to be away. So, no idea?

Main suspicion: VRK- why are you trying to confuse us now with random voting ideas, and in the earlier days doing nothing?
Secondary suspicion, aka worth looking more into: Startran- seem suspicious.

I'd like Starbuck and Crazy to outline any suspicions, please.

[startransmission]

Bouche, I'll get to your concerns in a moment, in the meantime I'll sleep and sober up.

What the fuck is going on here? I know Starbuck has a (somewhat) decent excuse for not posting, what's the deal with the rest of you?

Mod, can we get a prod on... everybody?

[Elmo]

crazypianist1116, bouchedufou & Vel-Rahn Koon have been prodded.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

You forgot to send me a PM Elmo.

Sorry guys weekends are taken with packing. I need to respond to start.

[Elmo]

I sent two copies to bouchedufou. Oops.

[crazypianist1116]

Ok responding to prod. I'm really sorry. I've been swamped with school work. As of late I re-read Day 1 again and got scummy vibes from bouched actually. I'll explain it more tomorrow but now I have to sleep.