California Trilogy: City of Angels - On Camera (Game Over)

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

wait

this is for charity?

For real?

are you guys nuts?!?!?

are we really spending this much time arguing over something for charity!?

what has charity done for ME?

Shit when I was just a poor black youth in Pa, where the hell were my handouts? That shit don't make no sense man, paying mad money to fly food all the way to africa when there are poor starving black kids in your backyard!

this shit is whack man.

[Talilan]

sorry Dweezil, that question was genuine, I didn't understand what you were trying to communicate.

Kelly we have no way of verifying if your pick actually was random. Therefore if you've made the wrong choice we're not going to be able to hold you to account.

[elmosaurian]

Oh, my dear Carrie, of course there is some doubt about if the previous you was evil. Only after death can a person's worth truly be judged.

I had been assuming that since, as you say, there is only one advocate, and it is you, that you would know whatever the advocate is supposed to, but if not, then that's fine. Everything happens for a reason.

Now, of course I don't think the old carrie behaved appropriately.

And yes, of course if she was evil, she would have known what the doors would do. That was why I made a specific point of trying to pin her down to picking a specific door, and telling her that she would likely lose our trust if she told us the wrong one. I'm not sure she entirely understood what I was getting at, but before she switched out, she again indicated that she thought we should pick door number 1, even though that is not what the math would suggest we do, which is interesting. I am not sure if she really understood what was going on, though, and unfortunately she was switched out before it could really be clarified.

[Thok]

I'm confused as to why the current Carrie thinks I'm trying to cloud the issue about whether the original Carrie is evil. One comment I've made was in response to Mr. Odbody being ambivalent: it's clear my question there was to extract info from Mr. Odbody rather than to suggest the possibility of Carrie's innocence.

(It's certainly more obvious that was my intention was inquisitive than a similar comment you made yesterday, Godwin thought to himself.)

In the other posts I've made, it was clear that I think the former Carrie is evil, since I provided my reasons for thinking she is evil. I only comment that it is merely likely since I don't know she is evil, and won't know until her head is in a noose and her identity shown to all of us. But I find it useless to think that she is good.

I'd also still like to hear you reexplain you comments about DEATH (or at least tell us we can ignore that, or something.)

The head of my real life counterpart has cleared up some. I should be making more posts soon, as well as a vote on the decision.

[Talilan]

you can ignore the comment about DEATH

[MafiaJin]

Well Clarence, I thought you saw the good in everybody, yet your telling me she was evil? No bell rings for you.

But that is not what is important. What IS important is whether the correct door is number 1 or number 2. If the drunken Carrie was as you say, which door is correct in your opinion?

[Mr. Grey]

Vote Count:

5 to Decide.

Door 1: 2 (Carrie Fisher, Dweezil Zappa)
Door 2: 0

Not Voting: 7 (Clarence Odbody, Glen Stewart Godwin, Kelly Garrett, Kobe Bryant, John Locke, Julie Newmar, Lance Ito)

[MrJellyLee]

[PJ Posting]

Judge Ito closes and his eyes and listens for a time. He is certainly not used to being around people who do not silence themselves when he is talking.

"I do not think we are any closer to a concensus than we were before. I also do not find the current conversation very enlightening. I think we are all working off of slight biases, and I think we will be better off if we focus on discovering those.

"I, for one, distrust Mr. Godwin, and not only because he is a criminal. Yes, Mr. Godwin, I recognized you -- all governmental positions do. It’s fortunate for you that my job is to interpret the law and not to enforce the law. Although you have reasons to stand back while talking, most of what you say strikes me as dishonest. As one part of me wants to put it [MBL], ‘icky.’ I feel I cannot take your words at face value.

“At least one half of me [MBL] distrusts Ms. Newmar. I may elaborate on that later.

“Finally, I seem to be torn about Mr. Odbody. One half of me [PJ] thinks he is relying on reasonable-sounding speech to carry him while he says little, while the other half of me [MBL] thinks he is simply being thoughtful, and in a good way.

“So that is where I stand. What say you?”

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i dont understand one word the crazy asian guy is saying.

[Thok]

Godwin drops his hand, and in a sudden motion grabs the judge and pulls a gun that he waves at the other players.

"You should have ignored me until the police were here. I can't afford to go back to the slammer, and I certainly won't leave anyone who will flap his mouth about me."

"Don't try to be a hero," Godwin shouts at the other seven as he vaguely points his gun at the crowd, while dragging the judge away from them.

For what it's worth Mr. Ito, I agree with your worries about Ms. Newmar, as she's not said what she thinks about the decision. I have similar concerns about Pooky.

My line of thought is this. If the original Carrie truly did know nothing and was working for us, we would switch 100% without thinking, as that would give us the best chance of winning. That means that the optimal strategy for an evil Carrie would be to pick the good door 100% of the time. Because we agree that the original Carrie was evil, we can anticipate this and WIFOM starts coming into play, but I feel it drops the 100% chance to something like 66%, rather than 50% (or even farther.)

Obviously more information can affect the decision (hence why we have discussion.) And some players will trust their gut rather than the numbers.

[Talilan]

I had not realised how close we were to deadline (just over 2 and a half days). Here is my rationale:

I think the right course of action is staying. I think they originally wanted to stick with "stay" being the right option as we're more likely to switch off-hand. But then they tried to double bluff us by saying door 1 is the right option. So I'd say stay.

Which means our vote will be unchanged.

Would very much like to hear from Kobe, John, Julie and John as to what to do.

[Talilan]

And that decision's from my notes from a while ago, and it's very interesting to see what other people chose.

Both Dweezil and Lance, those of the town, thought the same thing.

Both Clarence and Glen, those more evilly inclined, the opposite.

It's possible to interpret this both ways- as scum trying to get in the good books by pushing towards a decision they know is correct, or simply in trying to mislead us. After all, even if their decision was correct, it would prompt questions as to how they knew what the correct course of action was. I'm also aware they may be attempting to bait us into going the wrong way, fully aware that we won't trust them. Nevertheless I find it difficult to find fault with my original rationale. I think the previous Carrie wanted to start by going with something which would prevent the dominant strategy from working i.e. choosing the correct door to begin with. But then she added WIFOM by saying we should stay. I think she thought we would think she was bluffing, and hence be more likely to change to the other door.

She was probably thinking "go with the door which means you need to play counter-intuitively to win, and then motivate people further not to choose the counter-intuitive option by choosing it yourself".

[elmosaurian]

If the original carrie was not trustworthy, and was trying to outwit us either with or without advice from other untrustworthy individuals then...well, in that case, without knowing who was advising her or how or when they decided what to do, and without being able to probe farther into her thought process, there's no way of knowing what she'd do. In that case, I think Kelly is right, we might as well flip a coin; trying to outguess an unknown person playing a shell game is futile.

If the original carrie was trustworthy, or if she was just acting randomly without thinking it through, then there is a 2/3 chance door 2 is the correct option.

Also, along with the fact that the current carrie, who I find almost as untrustworthy as her predecessor, is pushing for door number 1, makes me pretty confident of my choice here.

I'm going to vote now, but let's remember, there are unseen forces at work here. We don't want to make our final decision until the time is right or until we receive a sign from the heavens. SInce we are nowhere close to that at the moment, and time is limited, I'll cast my vote now.

I haven't been able to talk with my other half; he did tell me he's still following the situation at hand, but as he still hasn't had a chance to comment, I'm going to expect that he's not going to have a chance to. If he disagrees with this decision, though, he should feel free to say so here.

Vote:Door#2

[Talilan]

I strongly feel Clarence is overacting the whole

I don't know if the old Carrie was scum or not thing!

in an attempt to act uncertain in accordance with how she thinks a town-inclined person would. However she hasn't realised it's blatantly obvious the old Carrie was evil since the previous scene.

Notions based on whether the original Carrie was trustworthy wouldn't even be considered by a reasonable town-inclined person. Yer that's why she stole my part in the last scene to avoid being lynched, before getting trusted with the knowledge determined by the evil players, before choosing her door instantly with no discussion, clearly in order to do so before she could be replaced. Yer Clarence, it's really "unclear" whether or not she's evil, isn't it.

Plus you haven't given any reasons to reinforce your choice of door 2, beyond going with the ridiculous "I suspect you therefore I'll go with the opposite door" argument. You've made no attempt to address my clearly stated rationale for why we should choose door 1, and whether it's wrong.

[elmosaurian]

In the last scene, and afterwords, I was completely convinced that the old carrie was evil; if my memory serves me correctly, I believe I was actually one of the people driving the suspicion on her, and I was quite frustrated when she removed herself from our grasp.

Now, I am not so confident. Something in her play today makes me doubt; it was not what I would have expected from one who was untrustworthy and who was being coached by other untrustworthy types. I actually, in my heart, have a gut feeling that she's more trustworthy then she appears to be.

I may very well be wrong, much of the logical evidence in fact speaks strongly in favor of that possibility, but you claiming that her being evil is "blatantly obvious" and attacking me for not going along with you on that is not going to change my mind without a more concrete argument on the subject.

Also, why do you claim a "I suspect you therefore I'll go with the opposite door" argument is bad? Didn't you just make that exact same argument very recently?

As for your "clearly stated rationale", it clearly only applies if you assume Carrie is untrustworthy, which I am not willing to assume; and even if she is not, if you think about what you most recently said on the subject, it becomes clear that even you realize that your speculation on what an evil Carrie might do is almost completely a blind guess based on a confusing wine in front of me situation, and that you could just as easily be wrong as right.

[Talilan]

I am utterly at a loss as to how you think you can plausibly claim there is any chance the old Carrie is not evil.

My argument for door 1 was not "I suspect you therefore I'll go with the opposite door", it was entirely independent of that. It's the fact I think the scum i.e. Carrie (having spoken to yourself, Glen and Angel) would have chosen the right door to begin with, under the knowledge it's optimal play to switch and if we pursue a proper mixed strategy in light of knowing she knows which is the right one, we will go with the switch 2/3rds of the time anyway.

Furthermore, she decided to bluff us by choosing this door herself, making us even less likely to go with the "stay" option because she chose it herself. This is a very clearly laid out rationale. It is independent of the fact you are obv-evil.

I then reviewed my rationale in light of my rather strong suspicion you and Glen are both evil; yet chose the opposite option. I conclude I cannot conclude enough from this to motivate a change to the chances of my original rationale.

You are just using a very transparently scummy excuse of 'ooh I don't know if Carrie was scummy' to pursue obviously suboptimal reasoning.

Just for you though, CAN ONE OF THE STAGEHANDS GET ME A DONUT? AND PERHAPS WE COULD HAVE WORD IF MS. BLUE HAS TURNED BLUE YET? IF NOT WHY NOT? WAS SHE EVIL?

[Talilan]

We need 5 votes for one choice within the next two and a half days, pending news from off-stage please provide rationale and a vote in your next post.

[elmosaurian]

All I can say, my dear, is that my best guess at the moment was that those who are working towards ill ends should have known, and probably did know, what the effect of making old-Carrie the advocate would be. My hunch is that they did so both hoping that we wouldn't trust her, that the situation would lead to her being replaced and then killed by terrible mob violence, and that this would also provide enough WIFOM confusion to give those working against us plenty of cover to manipulate us.

If I did think old-carrie was scum and this was all part of some master plan planned by the scum group as a whole, I would still choose door #2, because if they know we don't trust her, and if we think carrie-scum "wants" us to go for door #2 by monty-hall logic we would be expected to go door #1. But that kind of attempt to outguess those who know we are trying to outguess them isn't especially reliable, or even all that helpful, in my experience.

[Talilan]

where's that donut? Can anyone remember who the director of photography is?

[Thok]

Godwin, annoyed by Carrie's demands and stressed by the current showdown, aims his gun towards Carrie and shouts loudly "If you don't stop asking for a donut, I'm going to put a hole in you." All the while he keeps a strong grip on Judge Ito.

I'm getting annoyed by Carrie. She seems to have no comments about the fact that she misrepresented me today, except to repeat her insistence that I and those that attack her are obviously evil. If Carrie is good, then she is behaving similar to her role in Blues Brothers, so blinded by rage over a slight that she acts violently and irrationally.

Also, unlike her, I think that Locke's position on the situation is clear, given what has happened (in the sense that I believe he has clearly indicated what door he is likely to pick, and that he was one of the earliest people to make that indication, albeit an indication that was dependent on certain conditions; he made these observations even before the newest version of Carrie arrived.) He may have changed his mind, but he has also indicated that he would prefer to hear of the old Carrie's fate before discussing that. In pointing this out, I am merely mentioning facts that anybody can find by reconsidering his words.

Finally, even if we don't have a majority, I believe the official decision making process would lead to us choosing door 1 at the moment. We can make inquiries to the proper authorities if need be. I agree that a majority would be better, just to have a voting record, and to avoid last minute shenanigans. For that reason I will

vote: Door 1

[Talilan]

I see that you haven't insisted that the old Carrie's alignment is unproven. I retract any implication that you had if there was any

[Thesp]

[Thesp]

[MafiaJin]

We have a go. This just in, the entire state of kentucky (KY) is going to be lynched. Heh.

vote door #1

I figure we were single faked and not doubled faked. I do indeed believe we were trying to be led astray.

Tags removed. Only votes at the end of the post are counted. - Mod

[Mr. Grey]

Deadline:

Approximately 48.5 hours from this post.

Vote Count:

5 to Decide.

Door 1: 3 (Carrie Fisher, Dweezil Zappa, Glen Stewart Godwin)
Door 2: 1 (Clarence Odbody)

Not Voting: 5 (Kelly Garrett, Kobe Bryant, John Locke, Julie Newmar, Lance Ito)