/in-Vitational Game 5, Simon Mafia 2: Game Over before 832

[Elmo]

Why lynch Llama?

[Elmo]

Again, how would I EVER come to the conclusion that everyone but me is town? How could I possibly agree? That just makes no sense whatsoever.

I dunno, that's got nothing in common with what I asked you - why the strawman? I asked you if you thought my conclusion was unreasonable, and I asked if you'd come to a different conclusion in my place. My stated conclusion was "everyone else seems at least slightly townish". I really don't think I'm being preposterous here.

Why would scum they be doing a better job than you? Are you more prone to think a behaviour is more townish if you know it comes from town-you, or what effect does the bias actually have? Why would would people randomly "notice you're town"? I mean, how does that work - why would they reasonably draw that conclusion? Why is my attack weak? What is bad about it being a weak attack?

[TDC]

Incidentally, I think that's what Elmo meant. If you disagree with him, who do you think is the most scummy?

That's not at all what he's saying. I asked whether he shared Fluff's thought that I'm scummy for not having suspicions and he declined.
He is specifically voting me because he perceives everyone else as town.
I'm not saying that he should vote someone else because that someone else is scummier. I'm saying that voting me on the basis that everyone else looks town is ridiculous.

Again, how would I EVER come to the conclusion that everyone but me is town? How could I possibly agree? That just makes no sense whatsoever.

I dunno, that's got nothing in common with what I asked you - why the strawman? I asked you if you thought my conclusion was unreasonable, and I asked if you'd come to a different conclusion in my place. My stated conclusion was "everyone else seems at least slightly townish". I really don't think I'm being preposterous here.

I don't think everyone else is town and you're refusing to tell me why I should.
Why is Nuwen slightly townish?
Why is GR slightly townish?
Why is SpyreX slightly townish?
Why is Batt slightly townish?
Why is DDD slightly townish?

Why would scum they be doing a better job than you?

No matter what you think about me, but if you think 8 people are slightly townish, scum are playing pretty good no matter what, or you suck as badly as I do.

Are you more prone to think a behaviour is more townish if you know it comes from town-you, or what effect does the bias actually have?

I know I'm playing to the best of my ability. Every single post of me screams town, if I read it.

But I knew that already.

.
I'm really lost as to what you're trying to get at here.

Why would would people randomly "notice you're town"? I mean, how does that work - why would they reasonably draw that conclusion?

I sometimes notice people are town. Should work the other way around, too.
If you're asking whether I can point to a specific thing I've done that shows I'm town, then I obviously can't. (And if I could, it would be all WIFOM..)

Why is my attack weak? What is bad about it being a weak attack?

It is weak because it relies on your read on eight other players. I thought that much was obvious.
I'm not suggesting it is bad as such. Just annoying and makes me wonder why, if you can't find something at least remotely plausible, you bother at all.
Curiously, Fluff doesn't seem to be bothered by your lack of suspicion as much as he was by mine.

[Elmo]

I'm saying that voting me on the basis that everyone else looks town is ridiculous.

Why? I mean, you've agreed with my reasoning assuming everyone else is slightly townish. I don't see why it's ridiculous.

I don't think everyone else is town and you're refusing to tell me why I should.

I'm not going to tell you why you should, because I don't think you (necessarily) should. I really don't mind what you think, one way or the other.

Nuwen is slightly townish for defending me, I think she's at least slightly less likely to do that as scum. Batt is slightly town for gut plus his vote near the end of day 1 plus his recent comments about you. SpyreX is very slightly townish on pure gut... I go back and forth on that. Danny is slightly townish for the frustration. Goat isn't slightly townish, but I don't want to lynch him because he came up with that plan and how it pans out probably reflects on his alignment.

No matter what you think about me, but if you think 8 people are slightly townish, scum are playing pretty good no matter what, or you suck as badly as I do.

I'm missing something. That doesn't answer the question, and I don't take your point about my play. At maximum I'm slightly right about five people and slightly wrong about three.

I know I'm playing to the best of my ability. Every single post of me screams town, if I read it.

So you'd guess there's generally a disjoint between your perception of your posts and other people's perception?

I sometimes notice people are town. Should work the other way around, too.

But you notice based on specific things, not posts like "hi im here" or so. It follows you should have some idea what kind of thing is likely to result in people noticing, and then have some idea of whether you've posted it or not.

It is weak because it relies on your read on eight other players. I thought that much was obvious.

Why does that make it weaker, though?

I'm not suggesting it is bad as such. Just annoying and makes me wonder why, if you can't find something at least remotely plausible, you bother at all.

Why annoying, though? And I don't follow the latter; why is it implausible, and would you seriously prefer I didn't bother at all?

[TDC]

I'm getting tired of this.

Nuwen is slightly townish for defending me, I think she's at least slightly less likely to do that as scum. Batt is slightly town for gut plus his vote near the end of day 1 plus his recent comments about you. SpyreX is very slightly townish on pure gut... I go back and forth on that. Danny is slightly townish for the frustration. Goat isn't slightly townish, but I don't want to lynch him because he came up with that plan and how it pans out probably reflects on his alignment.

In other words, your reads are all very vague.

No matter what you think about me, but if you think 8 people are slightly townish, scum are playing pretty good no matter what, or you suck as badly as I do.

I'm missing something. That doesn't answer the question, and I don't take your point about my play. At maximum I'm slightly right about five people and slightly wrong about three.

As you would always be if you said everyone was "slightly townish". But clearly if the scum are in your slightly townish category while I'm not, they're doing something right.

I know I'm playing to the best of my ability. Every single post of me screams town, if I read it.

So you'd guess there's generally a disjoint between your perception of your posts and other people's perception?

Yes. Are you trying to tell me that you can look at your own play without any kind of bias? What's your read on yourself?

I sometimes notice people are town. Should work the other way around, too.

But you notice based on specific things, not posts like "hi im here" or so. It follows you should have some idea what kind of thing is likely to result in people noticing, and then have some idea of whether you've posted it or not.

If I knew what I had to say to look like town, I'd also do exactly that as scum, duh. You have no idea why you think SpyreX is town, and just like that you could have no idea why you would think I'm town.

It is weak because it relies on your read on eight other players. I thought that much was obvious.

Why does that make it weaker, though?

You don't see how more premises with less certainty make a conclusion less valid? (Compare your stance to endgame, where someone says "I'm pretty sure X is town, vote: Y", which is a perfectly reasonable argument.)

I'm not suggesting it is bad as such. Just annoying and makes me wonder why, if you can't find something at least remotely plausible, you bother at all.

Why annoying, though?

What, why annoying. It just is. I read your vote and it annoys me. It's not a "TDC has done this and that" which I can reply to. Which I can try to argue against. I can't possibly argue against it (the pointless discussion we're having proves that), because you're resting everything on your vague town reads.

And I don't follow the latter; why is it implausible, and would you seriously prefer I didn't bother at all?

I've already said this. It could be that your hand is empty and you're just trying to keep the game going or whatever.
Could also be that your hand is empty and you're just pretending it isn't.
I can't tell which is the case. I don't really see my wagon overtaking Nuwen's wagon because of your brilliant case, so I doubt you're trying to save her.
If you don't want me lynched, voting me and not voting me are just as useless courses of action, only that the latter looks as if it wasn't.
If you do want me lynched, we're back to your case being the weakest and least-likely-to-fall-back-on-you case I could possibly imagine.

[Lord Gurgi]

Lynch Llama because his intent in responding to anything I say about him is to kill a wagon, not to convince me that he's town.

[petroleumjelly]

Official Day Two Vote Count #4

3 Nuwen (forbiddanlight, SpyreX, Goatrevolt)
1 Battousai (Debonair Danny DiPietro)
1 LlamaFluff (Lord Gurgi)
1 TDC (Elmo)

With

10

alive, it takes

6

to lynch and

4

to lynch at deadline. Deadline is September 22, 9:59 pm CDT.

Not Voting – 4 – Battousai, LlamaFluff, Nuwen, TDC

---

LOCK COUNT

8 – Green (forbiddanlight, SpyreX, Lord Gurgi, Battousai, Debonair Danny DiPietro, Nuwen, Goatrevolt, TDC)
0 – Blue
0 – Red
0 – Yellow

Not Locking – 2 – Elmo, LlamaFluff

At nightfall, the floor to be locked is: GREEN.

Nuwen has already been prodded. I will not reveal whether or not Nuwen has picked up her prod.

Just a reminder: the deadline September 22.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Unvote; Vote: Lord Gurgi

For completely failing to convince me at all that Llama is scum.

[Lord Gurgi]

....?

[Lord Gurgi]

DDD, I don't understand why you don't think he's scum. A townie should be trying to convince people off their wagon, and if I think the person attacking me is town, even more so. With ten alive, if just one townie is on another townie's wagon, that leaves the last six (or less?) to decide unanimously on a scum wagon (I'm going to make a leap and say that the scum aren't going to bus if they don't have to). The scum can afford to have a townie on them, they just need to stop a wagon from growing. In Llama's defenses he doesn't care at all about what I think, he cares what the group thinks. That's not a terribly hard connection to make. Now, I can't think of any reason at all for a townie to be content while someone's voting them.

I assume that you are voting me because you think my case is bad. When I think about the leading lurker lynch, I have to wonder why you chose me.

TDC: Who do you suspect. After all this defense from you, I haven't seen you give an alternative.

[Battousai]

Battousai, why do you think I'm trying to lynch TDC?

Why don't you tell me if you think I am wrong or right? I don't like your case on TDC. If you have no suspects, try scumhunting more than what you are doing.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

DDD, I don't understand why you don't think he's scum. A townie should be trying to convince people off their wagon, and if I think the person attacking me is town, even more so.

That's all well and good in theory, but if someone is running an ineffective case on me that doesn't appear to be convincing anyone then personally I'd just ignore it as well. Addressing it gives it some credence, ignoring it makes the person look like a lone voice braying at nothing.

I assume that you are voting me because you think my case is bad. When I think about the leading lurker lynch, I have to wonder why you chose me.

All I know is you've been pounding away at "he's not addressing my arguments" which doesn't tug at my heartstrings at all. I'll make the assumption that you're a competent player which makes me question your motives when you keep pushing an argument that doesn't resonate at all with me.

Plus we have two days till deadline and no one seemed much interested in a Batt lynch so I figured I'd see if I could get traction in another direction before we succumb to the inevitable and uninformative Nuwen lynch.

[forbiddanlight]

before we succumb to the inevitable and uninformative Nuwen lynch.

And what if she's scum? Then we have accomplished part of our win con, no? Still want a Nuwen lynch.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

before we succumb to the inevitable and uninformative Nuwen lynch.

And what if she's scum? Then we have accomplished part of our win con, no? Still want a Nuwen lynch.

I didn't say it was a bad lynch and if nothing better present itself then I'll make sure it gets to the needed 4 and/or 6 votes, just that even if she flips scum I'm not sure it tells us that much.

[LlamaFluff]

DDD, I don't understand why you don't think he's scum. A townie should be trying to convince people off their wagon, and if I think the person attacking me is town, even more so. With ten alive, if just one townie is on another townie's wagon, that leaves the last six (or less?) to decide unanimously on a scum wagon (I'm going to make a leap and say that the scum aren't going to bus if they don't have to). The scum can afford to have a townie on them, they just need to stop a wagon from growing. In Llama's defenses he doesn't care at all about what I think, he cares what the group thinks. That's not a terribly hard connection to make. Now, I can't think of any reason at all for a townie to be content while someone's voting them.

You already basically have said it a few times. You have given your reasons, I have said why I think they are pretty weak reasons. If you really want to keep going back and forth for the rest of the game with the whole "yeah-huh, nuh-uh" thing, sure I will. When we both have laid out our points though, nothing I can do will really change stuff except finding a magic rewording of the exact same thing, or presenting an alternative lynch.

I really have had zero time to make a magic rewording, and I think its very unhelpful to try, unless you seriously expect to be lynched. Otherwise making an alternative is a better path to take, which I intend to do now that I have more time.

The circular argument to me seriously is distracting to have to deal with as town, and it throws me off as it tends to draw most arguments to it in the end, and eventually even starts distracting from other wagons, so im not going to get into it with you. I have done enough to defend against what has been put out without being lynched, and am content with that.

TDC: Who do you suspect. After all this defense from you, I haven't seen you give an alternative.

Basically this

Vote TDC

For that matter, who is town? I really have no good idea about where you stand at all. Two days untill deadline of D2 is way to far into the game to have that big of a question mark by anyone.

[LlamaFluff]

Also I agree with LG that the vote from DDD on him is kind of poor

[Elmo]

I think I'm obligated to

Curiously, Fluff doesn't seem to be bothered by your lack of suspicion as much as he was by mine.

Two days untill deadline of D2 is way to far into the game to have that big of a question mark by anyone.

..?

[Goatrevolt]

Damn, the deadline is in two days... I'm going to catch up on what I've missed.

[Elmo]

Unless I'm missing something, I still have yet to hear an argument as to why Nuwen's position on me wasn't justified. Why is she less likely to do that as town?

While I think of it, Gurgi dislikes Fluff because he's not trying to dissuade Gurgi from voting him.. I would have thought TDC's response would be earning him town points with Gurgi, but he seems to be somewhat negative towards him. Why, pray?

It's funny because instead of doing little for 10 days and scrambling maniacally when everyone shows up for deadline, we could just have 96 hours deadlines and do comparably well.

[Goatrevolt]

Same. but nonetheless,

Vote: LlamaFluff

. Not voting at the end of the day is scummy.

Context doesn't matter at all?

[Goatrevolt]

SpyreX / Goatrevolt: What specifically do you dislike about Nuwen's play?

The arguments she used while defending you where irrelevant to whether or not you were a good lynch. Defending you wasn't scummy, else I would have jumped on Gurgi for the same thing. Defending you with reasons like "What information would we learn

if

Elmo is town" has no bearing on whether or not you're town or whether or not you'd be a good lynch. Most townie lynches suck for info. The best info is from lynching scum, so regardless if a lynch of you generated 0 information if you are town, it's still the right play if you are the best scum suspect.

Townies have legit reasons to want to avoid a lynch. I don't buy that "who are partners to Elmo" and "what would we learn from lynching Elmo if he's town" are legit reasons to avoid lynching someone. Neither of them have any bearing on the lynch at hand, and whether or not the lynchee is scum, which is of ultimate importance.

The defense of Elmo was hyperfocused and completely ignored the equal sized Zazie wagon, yet Nuwen's stated rationale was to avoid lynching a lurker/non-contributor, which should have applied to both.

In particular, this is not what I got out of her posting. I think there is a fairly obvious difference between someone who is pure-lurking and someone who says "yes, I'm here, I don't have much to contribute", and that she referenced that e.g. in 496. I haven't found a stated argument from you two, but I guess it revolves around TownNuwen not having sufficient confidence to defend me like that? I'd like to know, anyway.

Nah, it has nothing to do with her not having enough confidence to defend you like that. If she had said something like "I'm pretty sure Elmo is town based on gut" and then pushed an alternative suspect, I wouldn't have had any issue there. To push against your lynch with irrelevant reasoning and then ignore the other lynch option is just scummy. If her intention was to save you, she would have voted Zazie. If her intention was to stop a lynch on an inactive/lurker, she would have pushed people to vote elsewhere. Neither of those happened.

The point is that, at least in my mind, Nuwen identified some set of behaviour, hypothesised about my alignment and then acted on it. Gurgi's posting didn't seem to be affected by or really reference my alignment. Now, it may be personal bias on his part because we're friends, but I'd nonetheless think an average townie is less likely to defend someone without a read of some kind. It's also notable that Gurgi's comments were more low-key and therefore probably got the best of both worlds, in that it didn't reduce the chance I'd be lynched. So I am having a hard time seeing an objective argument why Nuwen is worse than Gurgi.

Gurgi was voting Zazie, was mindful of both competing wagons and selected one over the other. Nuwen ignored the Zazie wagon, pushed strongly against the Elmo wagon in words, but did nothing in terms of actions (votes, suggestion to lynch elsewhere) to stop it.

[Goatrevolt]

A townie should be trying to convince people off their wagon

I'm sure you've played many many games. That sort of behaviour shuts me out. You actively repelling me is not conducive to scumhunting. Stop it.

What is the difference here. End of day 1 (quote 2) you tell Llama to stop trying to repel you off his wagon, and here you are calling him scummy for not trying to repel you off his wagon. Eh?

[Goatrevolt]

I'm pretty sure TDC is town. His method of defense employs a style that I have personally seen come from town vastly more often than scum, and that is his assertions that he's town, and he thinks he appears town, and that he hopes his "townieness shines through" etc. Psychologically, I think that must just be easier for a townie to say than scum, because I rarely see scum employ it (actually, I vaguely recall debating this with Elmo in mafia discussion at some point, though I could be wrong).

I'm disappointed Nuwen hasn't joined us at all. I'm not fully sold on her being scum, and would love to hear her actually address my complaints against her. The mod saying "I won't disclose whether or not she has picked up the prod" basically suggests that she has (also I think she's been posting in GD, but don't quote me on that), which is lame if true. I just finished a game where she was town a week or so ago. There are similarities and differences between her play here and there, enough to where I'm uncomfortable drawing a strict meta call off of it alone. I can see her making the Elmo defense as town, but it's more likely a scum play on the basis of the lack of valid rationale backing it up. In that other game, she pulled a similar play day 1, but never resorted to using irrational arguments to back it up.

There is one thing that is bothering me to no end about Nuwen is the complete lack of a counterpush. If Nuwen is scum, her buddies are not worried about letting her die. Nobody is seriously pushing elsewhere. Gurgi is calling for Llama's head, but is doing nothing to actually get people on board. Elmo is pushing at TDC, but again not actually trying to drive that lynch. Nobody seems too worried about Nuwen being lynched, which is worrisome. This would suggest that her buddies are on board with the bus (at this point, Batt would be the most likely suspect here, based on his lack of commitment to the wagon, yet touting it as his preferred lynch nonetheless) or that she is town and the scum are content to sit back and do nothing while she gets canned via deadline. I'm going to come back to that more tomorrow after I have a chance to think it over, but that is a definite concern.

This game has not been easy to peg scum. I'm not sure why exactly, but when I'm town I can generally get a pretty good feel by day 2 and here I don't have that. I've found that I'm typically better at pegging town than pegging scum, so that is the angle I'm going to try to approach it. I think the following are town:

TDC
DDD
ForbiddanLight
Elmo

I'm in favor of lynching someone who is not on that list. Apologies if my post flows really poorly and is tough to follow, I'm tired and out of it right now. More tomorrow after work...

[TDC]

Vote TDC

For that matter, who is town? I really have no good idea about where you stand at all. Two days untill deadline of D2 is way to far into the game to have that big of a question mark by anyone.

Welcome back, Fluff.
You will notice that I have said some people look town (you, curiously enough, for example) and that I have no read at all on others (DDD, for example).
I will be delighted to read your answer to what Elmo repeated.

Elmo: I'm fine with us dropping what we were arguing about, but I'm interested in your read on yourself.

Add Nuwen not getting replaced to the list of things annoying me in this game.

[Elmo]

I vaguely recall debating this with Elmo in mafia discussion at some point, though I could be wrong).

Yeah, I was gonna

unvote

at some point soon. I wondered if anyone would jump on it.. I'm not fond of Fluff's move here. Battousai is interesting in the refusal.

Nuwen has posted in GD and been on AIM, I think. Not reading anything into that, personally. Battousai should probably also be on the town list fwiw. The case against Nuwen is interesting... I'm pretty curious why I'm on the list, to be honest.

TDC: I think I have a most a very weak bias when looking at my own play; obviously I have special knowledge about myself that other people don't, but beyond that I don't think so. I think I'm probably slightly scummy all told, but interpretation can swing it around a lot. (There are any number of complicated things to say here, but it's not rly worthwhile I guess.)