Mini 848 - Second String Muppets Mafia - Game Over.

[Ectomancer]

Well there is another softclaim you are overlooking. You are also right, we don't know if they can target or not. Neither does scum. They almost certainly have to kill rather than risk a no kill when possibly nobody could target him even if they wanted to. But it is possible.
I also disagree with your assessment about the worth of a confirmed PGO. They are not simply another townie confirmed. To the mafia, they would become an

unkillable

confirmed townie and that is a far different and much more powerful creature. Now is that not right? Or does a target by mafia become a mutual kill? Even then we would force the mafia to take out one of themselves and if they are the last one they wont have that option even.

Here's the main thing I dislike about not finding a good way to confirm or debunk his claim. Scum dont have to get through endgame alive anymore. They just have to make it

to

endgame with charter alive. I'd prefer to find a way to turn it back on

them

and make them have to figure out how to deal with him, even at the loss of another (hopefully) minor power role.

If there is no way, there is no way but if there are other ideas to bat around, spit them out.

[Kirbyoshi]

Sure, the evidence would be in favor of it, and that would be probably enough to

lynch the PGO,

Did I miss something here? I thought that PGOs were at least most of the time, and at most always, town-aligned. Brings up an interesting point though: would it be beyond the realm of imagination for there to be a

scum-aligned

PGO? This is probably reaching, but I want to hear what the more experienced players have to say about it.

[MonkeyMan576]

Well there is another softclaim you are overlooking. You are also right, we don't know if they can target or not. Neither does scum. They almost certainly have to kill rather than risk a no kill when possibly nobody could target him even if they wanted to. But it is possible.
I also disagree with your assessment about the worth of a confirmed PGO. They are not simply another townie confirmed. To the mafia, they would become an

unkillable

confirmed townie and that is a far different and much more powerful creature. Now is that not right? Or does a target by mafia become a mutual kill? Even then we would force the mafia to take out one of themselves and if they are the last one they wont have that option even.

Here's the main thing I dislike about not finding a good way to confirm or debunk his claim. Scum dont have to get through endgame alive anymore. They just have to make it

to

endgame with charter alive. I'd prefer to find a way to turn it back on

them

and make them have to figure out how to deal with him, even at the loss of another (hopefully) minor power role.

If there is no way, there is no way but if there are other ideas to bat around, spit them out.

PGO's are not necessarily unkillable. Depending on the mod, if a killer targets them, they simply both die. That is, PGO's aren't necessarily bulletproof. But, put in those terms, if we found a player with a claimed night action that was acceptable to lose, and it meant that a scum had to die to kill the PGO, it would be a good tradeoff. But a competent mafia would probably try to kill the player that was targeting the PGO, so maybe not.

[Kirbyoshi]

Or does a target by mafia become a mutual kill?

Not according to my experience at epicmafia, but I've never dealt with a PGO in forum mafia, so idk.

[Ectomancer]

But, put in those terms, if we found a player with a claimed night action that was acceptable to lose, and it meant that a scum had to die to kill the PGO, it would be a good tradeoff. But a competent mafia would probably try to kill the player that was targeting the PGO, so maybe not.

Yeah, that's the key here. We can't know who is going to do it until after it is done. Whoever has a role that might be worth the sacrifice will have to make the personal decision based upon our discussion here.

Sounds like that's about all there is to cover there really...

[Kirbyoshi]

@mod: Please don't tell us if there is a PGO, but if there is, would a mafia target be a mutual kill?

[MacavityLock]

@mod: Please don't tell us if there is a PGO, but if there is, would a mafia target be a mutual kill?

This is a no-bones, 100% anti-town question to ask. I don't see a single way this helps the town, and if answered, clearly helps scum.

Unvote. Vote: Kirby.

[charter]

@mod: Please don't tell us if there is a PGO, but if there is, would a mafia target be a mutual kill?

This is a no-bones, 100% anti-town question to ask. I don't see a single way this helps the town, and if answered, clearly helps scum.

Unvote. Vote: Kirby.

We got one scum bussing Kirby, now we just need the other one! In all seriousness, Kirby is scum, and your point is another good one against him.

Ecto, I hate to break it to you, but your plan is a POOR idea. Sacrificing another townie to confirm me is dumb. Their power is almost certainly better than mine, so it's a really poor trade. I've been in games with PGO (and been one before), and the only difference is, you get lynched if you're scummy (not really a difference at all). You just don't get targeted at night. You should just wait until tonight and see if anyone is dumb enough to try it, and then reassess tomorrow.

[ekiM]

Welcome, charter.

---

Unvote

. There's a lot going on here. I don't really have my head wrapped around everything. Trying to get back up to speed.

---

Claim theory discussion

• Claims are for stopping power roles getting lynched. Apart from that function, claims are bad. They let the scum know whom to target.
  
• Unnecessary claims are really bad. Claims should happen when a clear and solid majority wants to lynch someone. Not before.
  
• Don't ask for a claim too early. Just because someone is at L-1 doesn't mean "it's time for them to claim". Only if everyone currently on the wagon is still gung-ho for a lynch, and someone else is ready to hammer. L-2 is ridiculously early.
  
• If someone asks you to claim and you think it's too soon, don't just submit. Argue against it.
  
• Vanilla claims should never stop a lynch, if the claim was requested at the right time. If they did, it means they were asked too early. (N.B., it's not scummy to claim as vanilla, it's just a bad idea. Argue the wagon instead.)

---

Monkey's vanilla claim

This was requested early. EL put Monkey to 6 votes and immediately asked for a claim, backed up by Elvis. Then the wagon started to fall to pieces. There wasn't a consensus that a Monkey lynch at that point was apropos, so asking for a claim was inappropriate and unnecessary. I'd like to know why those two thought that was a good time for a claim. Unnecessary claims only benefit scum.

---

charter's PGO claim

If this is true, this is excellent. The trouble is, knowing if it's true. I don't like Ecto's ideas for "confirming" it by having town PRs targeting him. Too high-risk, too much to lose. Potentially losing some or all of our power roles and still not having true confirmation doesn't sound good to me. I thought the best way would be to observe his play and see if it's pro-town. But the problem is, if we allow that then as scum he's free to bus hard and coast to victory on a pseudo-confirmation. So I'm not sure yet what's best here. Never played in a game with one before.

One thing I will say is that Kirby's question is something scum would badly want to know, and I don't think charter should answer it if he knows.

---

I'm going to come back to this this evening, hopefully. Long weekend made me behind on all my games, and I have two more I need to catch up on. :\ I'll give my full comments and suspicions later, but my first impressions are something along the lines of...

Town-ish: DDD, Ecto, Jordan
Neutral/unsure: ML, charter, Monkey
Suspect: EL, Elvis, Kirby, Snix
AWOL: Spring

[Snix]

question to monkey: What makes you think there are 3 scum? I don't see it anywhere in the first post.

[Ectomancer]

I agree Monkey's claim was early. I believe it was EL, I'd have to check, but he asked me about the conundrum he thought I was in and wondered whether I still supported a Monkey claim. I expected to be able to comment on it, but just a few posts later Monkey had already claimed. It was unfortunate because my answer would have been much the same as yours, we get a claim when there is nothing left but a lynch. I recall this post here because it felt like a taunt. Clearly EL could tell that I was beginning to lean away from a claim from Monkey.

Criticizing me for putting DDD under suspicion puts you in an interesting position now Ecto, do you intend to derail your wagon that you seem to feel so sure about in order to prevent a roleclaim from Monkey? Does my waffling on the situation make me look like a busser? I especially want to hear from you on this, Elvis.

[elvis_knits]

@ekiM, there pretty much was a consensus that MM would be lynched at that point, at least that is what I thought. Otherwise so many people wouldn't have been voting for him! He was L-1 and I was thinking about voting him. Perfect time to claim.

Also, for the most part, I like Ecto, but I don't like him now saying he was leaning away from getting a claim from Monkey at that point. Since he was hammering away at monkey all day and was still voting monkey, I don't know how anyone was supposed to know he wouldn't have wanted monkey to claim.

[charter]

Request Prod/Replacement of springlulliby

[Ectomancer]

@ekiM, there pretty much was a consensus that MM would be lynched at that point, at least that is what I thought. Otherwise so many people wouldn't have been voting for him! He was L-1 and I was thinking about voting him. Perfect time to claim.

Also, for the most part, I like Ecto, but I don't like him now saying he was leaning away from getting a claim from Monkey at that point. Since he was hammering away at monkey all day and was still voting monkey, I don't know how anyone was supposed to know he wouldn't have wanted monkey to claim.

Maybe you didn't see it because you weren't personally involved like EL was. What he saw was me suddenly side with my target against him. He felt the psychological shift. You "don't know how anyone was supposed to know", but those are Eldritch Lords words, not mine. I didn't put them into his mouth. What I am confirming is that he was right. I

was

beginning to feel real doubt about Monkey and his question was a very real and pertinent one. Would I still support a Monkey claim after looking at the fact that we already had 2 PR claims (remember my /facepalm?) and he felt my support for a Monkey lynch slipping? You saw the taunt? So he put him at L-1 to put me on the line, only Monkey claimed before I could give input on it.

Listen to what you're saying there honcho.

After both parties (Jordan-Ecto VS. Monkey) feel they've exhausted the other and are satisfied with the limit of the debate would be the ideal time for me to post my own cases.

I believe that Monkey and myself

are

the parties involved and

we

are asking you for your other cases. I really don't think that you want to attempt to argue that we

haven't

exhausted the argument.

[Zorblag]

@mod: Please don't tell us if there is a PGO, but if there is, would a mafia target be a mutual kill?

No comment.

Mod Note: springlullaby has been prodded.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[elvis_knits]

@ekiM, there pretty much was a consensus that MM would be lynched at that point, at least that is what I thought. Otherwise so many people wouldn't have been voting for him! He was L-1 and I was thinking about voting him. Perfect time to claim.

Also, for the most part, I like Ecto, but I don't like him now saying he was leaning away from getting a claim from Monkey at that point. Since he was hammering away at monkey all day and was still voting monkey, I don't know how anyone was supposed to know he wouldn't have wanted monkey to claim.

Maybe you didn't see it because you weren't personally involved like EL was. What he saw was me suddenly side with my target against him. He felt the psychological shift. You "don't know how anyone was supposed to know", but those are Eldritch Lords words, not mine. I didn't put them into his mouth. What I am confirming is that he was right. I

was

beginning to feel real doubt about Monkey and his question was a very real and pertinent one. Would I still support a Monkey claim after looking at the fact that we already had 2 PR claims (remember my /facepalm?) and he felt my support for a Monkey lynch slipping? You saw the taunt? So he put him at L-1 to put me on the line, only Monkey claimed before I could give input on it.

Well I might have missed some of the nuances of that convo. I was catching up on a lot there. I guess I expected you to still want a claim because of how much time you had spent on monkey.

I agree with you though that EL has made many shady moves. That's why I'm voting him.

[charter]

Elvis, what do you think of post 330? Why make no comment on it?

It's very unsettling how you claim to be suspicious of Kirby, but don't really seem to be.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Actually, would it be the worst thing in the world to have Spring and her PR of dubious benefit target charter (provided it is something she targets with) to test out his claim? I mean Spring has suggested her power might actually hurt the town more than help so in that sense it wouldn't be a big loss assuming she was truthful. Either we'd force scum to kill her to not out charter or we'd have our confirmed townie as the expense of what is allegedly a junk PR. Just thoughts.

[charter]

I don't want to argue against myself, but I don't think that's a good idea. Besides all the not having a clue what her role is, it seems really easy for the mafia to frame anyone if they have a roleblocker and we plan these things out.

I wouldn't worry about it too much on day one, I've seen scum target a claimed PGO before, so we can always hope.

[elvis_knits]

Elvis, what do you think of post 330? Why make no comment on it?

It's very unsettling how you claim to be suspicious of Kirby, but don't really seem to be.

I almost did vote kirby after 330, but I thought it would dilute my case on EL. Do you think EL is scum?

[ekiM]

Indeed, charter. It occurs to me that this sort of speculation and strategizing might be more useful on later days when we have some idea of how many kills we'll be seeing a night...

[ekiM]

I am not fully caught up yet but I have had a full read through just now and I've observed something interesting.

---

EL on the ML case and wagon...:

139 - "Regardless, Ecto/Jordan/Monkey are all lynches I would be okay with if we were to hit the deadline right now seeing how as none of the cases are particularly strong. Still, given the choice I'd take Monkey over Jordan over Ecto."
145 - "Because in relation to anything I've been able to build myself, your case looks very powerful indeed."
147 - "I would prefer not to allow deflection to occur. The focus should be on Monkey, Jordan, and yourself for the moment."
166 - Votes for DDD for putting Monkey at L-1.
173 - "You're very careful with your wording DDD, you weren't just voting, you were setting someone up to be hammered. There is a scary amount of finality and certainty to that given your lack of recent posting.

This is a good question Macavity, one I've been asking myself, actually. I suppose I'd like to hear more from DDD before hearing a roleclaim from Monkey.

I was kind of on the same boat as Snix, just waiting for someone to do something that I legitimately identify as scummy. Ecto and Monkey are both definitely still on my radar, but I can't pin them down beyond cases that make way too much inference."
194 - "That said, I was never too particularly attached to the case against Monkey and spent most of my time trying to understand exactly what the case against Ecto was rather than pursue Monkey directly, though I think the Ecto/Monkey debate certainly deserves the great deal of scrutiny you've provided knits. I think, out of my strategy, we got several interesting dodges from Monkey which led me to believe it was a case full of hot air -- possibly scummy hot air."
196 - If the majority of town feels that they're ready to choose Monkey, I'm alright with that choice, I feel that he's slipped up enough to warrant a lynch...... I don't understand why everyone seems to eager to hold a guy at L-1 to force a roleclaim when we have posters who haven't posted since page 1."
197 - "I do think the cases against Monkey and Ecto are weak, the slip ups that have occurred during discourse, however, put Monkey in a very bad light for me."
203 - revotes MM. claims "everyone" wants to see a roleclaim
205 - requests claim.

Let me summarize some of that...

139 - All cases are weak, Monkey is best.
145 - Monkey case is very powerful (compared to nothing?)
147 - Please focus on monkey/jordan
166 - DDD is suspect for voting for monkey
173 - Not ready for a monkey roleclaim, case is not legitimately scummy, based too much on inference
194 - Not particularly attached to the case on Monkey, full of hot air, possibly scummy
196 - Too early to force a roleclaim, despite what "everyone" says
197 - the case is weak
203 - "everyone" wants a roleclaim, so votes Monkey.
205 - requests claim.

I do not see what changed between 196 and 203. At all. In 196 he didn't see why "everyone" wants Monkey at L-1 and forced to claim. A few posts later he did exactly that. None of the people he was missing had spoken up.

Looks like he wanted to force a totally unnecessary roleclaim but was looking for cover by claiming it was what "everyone" wanted. If that was true, his 'reluctant' vote wouldn't be necessary. I think forcing the claim then was a blatantly anti-town move, and trying to avoid responsibility for it just makes EL look worse.

Vote: Eldritch Lord

.

---

@ekiM, there pretty much was a consensus that MM would be lynched at that point, at least that is what I thought. Otherwise so many people wouldn't have been voting for him! He was L-1 and I was thinking about voting him. Perfect time to claim.

People were voting him, but it was an early game wagon and some people on it hadn't spoken in a while. How were you so sure there was a "consensus" there? Why force the claim without seeing responses to him being back at L-1?

Did you notice EL's sudden shift of stance I catalogue above? What do you make of it?

---

I still want Snix to answer this:

Your question was "Jordan seemed to shut up after you stated that he made a newb mistake, experienced scum hushing up the less experienced?" I'm not sure what you were expecting Ecto to say here. That is, how else can someone answer that other than with a yes or a no? Seriously loaded question.

I wasn't looking for a yes or a no in particular, just a real response.

Please give an example of a response you would expect a townie to give to that horribly loaded question.

It strikes me that asking loaded questions isn't very pro-town behavior. It's not designed to determine alignment, it's designed to make the subject look bad no matter what their alignment.

[ekiM]

Mod and others: I will be V/LA Fri 25th to Sun 27th.

[elvis_knits]

@ekiM, there pretty much was a consensus that MM would be lynched at that point, at least that is what I thought. Otherwise so many people wouldn't have been voting for him! He was L-1 and I was thinking about voting him. Perfect time to claim.

People were voting him, but it was an early game wagon and some people on it hadn't spoken in a while. How were you so sure there was a "consensus" there? Why force the claim without seeing responses to him being back at L-1?

Did you notice EL's sudden shift of stance I catalogue above? What do you make of it?

I don't know what you're talking about "early game wagon" when we'd been playing the game for over 10 pages. It's not like the votes on monkey were random. I was sure there was a consensus by there being 10 pages of discussion mostly about monkey, and there being 6 votes on him.

I do agree that EL's vote on Monkey muddies the waters a bit. After I had time to think about it, I liked it less and less, but at the time I was compartmentalizing a bit. Even if EL seems like scum, that doesn't mean Monkey isn't scum too. The circumstances of him laying the L-1 vote were suspicious, but I find scum often put bad votes on buddies in order to buss them. I had just criticized EL for jumping ship on monkey (trying to save his buddy?), so he came back and voted monkey. That seems almost like a confirmation of my suspicions.

But lots of that is speculation, dependent on people being buddies, which is so WIFOM at this point. So I just went with the fact that monkey was scummy and he had six votes on him. Simple. I don't understand why that is weird to anyone.

[charter]

Elvis, what do you think of post 330? Why make no comment on it?

It's very unsettling how you claim to be suspicious of Kirby, but don't really seem to be.

I almost did vote kirby after 330, but I thought it would dilute my case on EL. Do you think EL is scum?

I will take another look, I know he definately had a bunch of highly questionable actions when I read through, but I didn't conclude that he was scum. I can tell you (with almost 100% certainty) that I will not be voting EL after this, barring some scumslip, since I am really sure that Kirby is scum.