Mini 837 - Stratego Mafia! (Game Over!)

[ortolan]

I agree, Gorrad's stated reasons for voting you don't make sense. You didn't claim bomb, you claimed major.

Unvote

I would currently like the pseudo-mass-claim that has been started to finish. Vaya, please claim your entire role.

[charter]

Vote Count

Gorrad - 1 (ElectricBadger)
Hoopla -1 (Gorrad)

Not Voting

Vaya
AlmasterGM
Hoopla
ortolan


With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline is October 10th, midnight.

[Hoopla]

What powers have you got left in your arsenal, ortolan? The standard doc/RB/cop/vig combo, I assume?

[AlmasterGM]

Hoopla, a bomb is anti-town because I'm town and have a role that's anti-bomb.

Almaster, see above. There's obviously an anti-town bomb because of my role. If Hoopla is NOT a bomb, then there's a fourth anti-town role which is a bomb.

You're still being vague. Why exactly is Hoopla the bomb? EB claimed no number - AKA bomb. Hoopla claimed a NK, and there has yet to be a counterclaim. Given that, explain to me why this scenario doesn't make the most sense out of anything:

Gorrad: Scum Miner
EB: Town Bomb

[ortolan]

I really think Vaya should claim tbh imho

[AlmasterGM]

I agree.

[Vaya]

Marshall - 10, vanilla.

[AlmasterGM]

I think Hoopla is the SK and either Gorrad or Vaya is scum. One of them is lying - either Vaya is a scum bomb that Gorrad can diffuse, or Gorrad is making up his Miner claim (he probably got the idea from Synx's role).

That being said, I think it's better to take out Hoopla (or whoever the SK is, if new information comes to light) today. With all these power roles (bomb, JOAT, tracker, cop (and Vig, if there's no SK), there's no way there's just a 3-person mafia team - the town would be too good. There has to be some other factor, and it's probably a SK. If we take the SK out tonight, we bring things down to 1 NK, and hopefully then we can utilize the following ...

Claim: I'm a cop. I blew my Night 1 investigation on Kast (TOWN, obviously). Night 2, I checked ortolan and he came up as TOWN, so I believe him when he says he a JOAT. Night 3, if he uses his doctor shield on me, I'll be able to report in the morning on Gorrad. If he comes up as scum, game over. If not, we know he can be trusted, and we'll lynch either Vaya or EB.

Thoughts?

[Gorrad]

Hoopla, what in the nine rings makes you think the bomb is a PGO? Seriously. Don't assume speculation to be undeniable truth.

Almaster, I'm down with that plan.

EB, if I had pursued another target, then I would have left Ortolan and the rest of y'all wondering why the heck I asked for the claim. Also, you could have been Flag.

[Hoopla]

I disagree Alamaster - Vig, tracker, cop, JOAT could be balanced if the last mafia has a powerrole. You have to consider the bomb is generally a detrimental role for town too as it can easily take out any town role that targets it.

It frustrates me that ortolan came up scum, because I really didn't believe his claim. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a mafia godfather, but we should play the percentages.

Again, ortolan, what have you got left of your JOAT powers?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, what in the nine rings makes you think the bomb is a PGO? Seriously. Don't assume speculation to be undeniable truth.

Almaster, I'm down with that plan.

EB, if I had pursued another target, then I would have left Ortolan and the rest of y'all wondering why the heck I asked for the claim. Also, you could have been Flag.

*sigh*

As opposed to you speculating it was an SK?

Bomb Wiki

Vote Gorrad.

I am the bomb, and am town, as bombs normally are. My role states miners are immune to the effects, so it makes little sense to specify it to one miner and not to another.

My D1 speculation of you as a scum bomb was, of course, for the sole purpose of implying I had no knowledge of the bomb myself - hoping to make mafia assume I was the one 'safe' target.

Your claim is weak, and even if true your actions are timed perfectly to take pressure off Hoops, whom you clearly think is scum; I see no town reason to divert a lynch from scum and reroute it towards the one player that town wants to be night killed.

I have no night action, and thus no night targets. I am a regular bomb; btw, this also means that no one with night actions has targeted me during the game (feel free to counterclaim).

Is that enough?

Also, EB should confirm or deny this in his next post. The bomb makes sense to me

knowing

I am a vig, as there needs to be a role that depowers town somehow. It's the bomb that does it.

[Gorrad]

Hoopla, I've given non-flavor-based evidence.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, I've given non-flavor-based evidence.

Post number please.

[Gorrad]

456!

[Hoopla]

Look, there's a town miner and a scum miner. Therefore, the bomb is SK. Hoops may be a third scum, but EB's undoubtedly the SK.

BUT I'M CLAIMING THE KILLS!

Your theory on EB's role is a lot more reaching than my normal interpretation of a normal town role. Plus, my theory doesn't run into problems such as another player (me), claiming the kills EB hasn't claimed.

[ElectricBadger]

Hoopla: Anyone who targets me with a night action dies, unless they are a miner.

Almaster: Why would scum Hoopla claim the kills Gorrad assigned to me?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla: Anyone who targets me with a night action dies, unless they are a miner.

Exactly, it's essentially a PGO that miners are immune to. Although I suspect that miners can defuse the bomb to make it safe for everyone else.

[ortolan]

Here is my theory:

Hoopla is SK with night-kill immunity. She claimed today knowing scumkills couldn't affect her and in the hope that claiming vig earlier rather than in LyoL would be better.

AlmasterGM is scum. I also think he is setting himself up for an end-game (if we lynch Hoops today and I protect him he has a cover for not dying tonight).

I'm sorry but I believe that charter would put a cop in the game in addition to my role even less than I believe he would put a vig in the game. Two town roles with sane cop abilities in a mini theme game (even if mine is one-shot) is ridiculous. It is also possible Almaster has a rolecop ability, while looking on the wiki the standard entry for a JOAT says killing protecting and investigating, as far as I'm aware the abilities do vary from game to game. I'm not sure he would have just assumed (corectly) I had a protect ability if his survival as a cop depended on it.

it's possible Gorrad's claim is a really elaborate gambit but I see it as unlikely. For EB, he was consistently on Synx's wagon both days 1 and 2. Looking at his comments it is possible to interpret it as busing (he almost seems kind of too sure Synx will flip scum) but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on balance. EB cannot be the "SK"- Hoopla has claimed the "SK" kills. EB is either scum or town, and I can't call him scum based on what I saw. So while Gorrad/EB's role interactions seem odd I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt.

So, my current plan is to lynch Hoops then Almaster. What do people think of this?

[ortolan]

I still find Synx quite suspect, but also Almaster. We hadn't had any discussion to speak off, and he already places Synx at L-1.

Vote AlmasterGM.

^^ I had forgotten about this. WLC would have to be

really

good at busing for Almaster to be scum. I can't think of a singular theory for this game which makes sense.

[ortolan]

Hey Hoops why do you find me scummy again? Is it just the reasons in 453?

[Hoopla]

Hey Hoops why do you find me scummy again? Is it just the reasons in 453?

Can you please answer the question I keep asking first. What powers have you got left up your sleeve?

[Hoopla]

It's funny how ortolan can't believe there is another vig, or another cop in the game. It's his role that contradicts two others in the game, whereas mine and Alamaster only contradict one. Not to mention claiming a cop result on a corpse, and a vig target on my kill.

---

My theory, based on the knowledge I am a town vigilante:

I know there is only scum left in the game. It's likely it is either Alamaster or ortolan.

If Alamaster is a sane cop, it is highly likely there is a Godfather role to water down the effectiveness of the cop (especially considering the roles the town possess).

There is a chance Alamaster is scum, but it makes no sense to come out this early, as he's leaving himself exposed when he isn't NK'd (presumably he'd push for my lynch if this was the case).

There is a slim chance Alamaster is a naive cop (another detrimental town role) to even out the excess of power in the town.

--

Gorrad is not scum, because of reasons I posted earlier, and EB is a town bomb. Vaya has a slim chance of being scum, but that would mean Alamaster and ortolan must be truthful, which seems unlikely without Alamaster being naive (which in turn is also unlikely).

--

The good news is I have a plan to win the game for the town (even with the possibility of me being an SK), which I will reveal soon.

[ortolan]

It's funny how ortolan can't believe there is another vig, or another cop in the game. It's his role that contradicts two others in the game

Yes, it is. To be honest I would think I would be pretty dumb to claim such as scum.

Not to mention claiming a cop result on a corpse, and a vig target on my kill.

I agree, my claimed targets are scummy and unverifiable. If I was scum I would hope I would claim something less scummy, like e.g. vanilla townie maybe. I hope I can rely on my play/meta helping me here. I had a very vested interesting in determining if Kast was scum, as I believe I pointed out day one I've played three previous games with him where he was scum and I was town- in two he effectively outwitted me, in one we both died night one so it was irrelevant. I honestly could not distinguish his play from those previous scum-games of his (which suggests he is a good scum-player). That explains my decision to cop him. I unvoted Synx not because I believed his claim, but because I didn't want him to roleblock me if he was town and prevent my Kast investigation (hence the "meh" comment).

I vigged WLC because he had quite obviously tried to detract from the Synx wagon by voting Almaster (plus if you're suggesting he's scum with me remember he did vote me day one with pretty bad reasoning which I reacted against).

Basically I wait to hear what your plan is Hoops. I'm not second-guessing any element of this setup after the claims we've been privy to.

also has EB full-claimed yet?

[AlmasterGM]

I have to admit I didn't consider the possibility of a Godfather. It would make sense for there to be one - he'd represent the Flag (this is Stratego Mafia, after all). It'd also make sense given the number of power roles we have on the town side.

What's your plan, Hoopla?

[Hoopla]

Here are my thoughts. This plan works on the basis that Gorrad is a town miner, and EB is a town bomb. These two alignments are the ones we are most certain of.

We need to no lynch today and coordinate our night actions to prove the powerroles.

1. Hoopla vig/SK kills Alamaster
2. Alamaster investigates Vaya
3. Ortolan protects Alamaster
4. Gorrad does not defuse the EB bomb


If Alamaster dies, it proves ortolan was lying about his JOAT claim. There is a slim chance ortolan is still a mafia roleblocker or mafia doctor. But I see this as very unlikely if we have a cop.

If ortolan is truthful, no vig/SK kill will go through, and there will just be the mafia kill. This will bring the numbers down to 5 and confirm ortolan, and we find out if Vaya is scum. If so, we lynch Vaya the next day. If not, we lynch me.

This method catches out ortolan, Vaya (unless he is a Godfather or Alamaster is naive/scum) and myself. Plus we still have a backup lynch in 3-player lylo if scum is Alamaster or Godfather Vaya.

--

This seems like the best percentage play the town has. It ensures ortolan does not win as scum, or myself as SK. Leaving EB undefused leaves us one near confirmed town player alive in a 3-player lylo.

The main worry is the first mafia nightkill after we no lynch. This plan would work a lot better if ortolan had a one-shot Roleblock ability too. Can you roleblock ortolan?