Mini 837 - Stratego Mafia! (Game Over!)

Hoopla · Post Post #500 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2009 8:29 am

Actually, that could leave us in a 1 mafia, 1 SK/Vig, 2 town endgame. Even though I am a vigilante, this will be a bad result from the town perspective, as I will probably be lynched to let mafia win.

A better plan is for us to no-lynch today, then;

1. Hoopla vig Hoopla
2. Ortolan protect Hoopla
3. Alamaster inspect Vaya
4. Gorrad does not defuse EB bomb

This way, if I die, it proves ortolan is scum. If I don't, it confirms ortolan, we only have one kill which makes it safe to lynch me with 5 alive.

Hmm, although, if I were an SK I could just say this, shoot someone else and hope mafia hit someone else and get 4 player endgame which gives me a shot at the end. Maybe I am the best lynch today.

Sorry, my plan is rubbish.

Hoopla · Post Post #501 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2009 8:38 am

Okay, we lynch me today, then we go to night with 5 players. When I flip town vigilante you follow my plan. If I'm the SK, yay town, it doesn't matter.

1. Ortolan protects Gorrad
2. Alamaster investigates Vaya
3. Gorrad does not defuse bomb EB

The only way Gorrad can die is if Ortolan is scum. But he would not shoot Gorrad, as he would be outing himself. This forces whoever mafia is to kill ortolan, Vaya or Alamaster.

Gorrad and EB then choose the next lynch as they are the most town, although if I were to choose; ortolan, Vaya then Alamaster is my preferential order.

Even this comes down to guesswork though - I cannot find any autowin for town. Sorry, I thought I had it this morning when I was eating breakfast.

ortolan · Post Post #502 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2009 8:40 am

Almaster could be scum and just lie about his investigation result.

Hoopla · Post Post #503 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2009 8:42 am

Yeah, this is a tricky scenario. Do you agree that EB and Gorrad are the most town, though?

Hoopla · Post Post #504 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2009 8:45 am

ElectricBadger: Do you explode just your opponent, or do you die too? Do you know that?

AlmasterGM · Post Post #505 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2009 8:56 am

Why would I have claimed cop if I was scum? Nobody suspected me at all before. There's zero reason for me to invent that claim.

Hoopla · Post Post #506 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2009 9:03 am

AlmasterGM wrote:Why would I have claimed cop if I was scum? Nobody suspected me at all before. There's zero reason for me to invent that claim.

Why would I claim vig, when I could have got EB lynched and a free pass into lylo?

Why would ortolan claim JOAT when he didn't need to, with results on my targets?

There's plenty of wifom going around. The fact we'll probably lynch each other because of it suggests the game is balanced enough, with a seemeingly excess in town power.

--

It's like having two sane cops, or two doctors in a set-up. It's almost not any more advantagous for the town having the extra role, as they're likely to be lynched thinking one is lying.

In fact, in charter's other game, he had two cops. Granted, it was a 'cops and robbers' game. But still, I guess it makes the 'no doubles' possibility a little less likelier.

Hoopla · Post Post #507 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2009 9:08 am

Ortolan, for the billionth time, can you roleblock?

charter · Post Post #508 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2009 9:08 am

Vote Count

Gorrad - 1 (ElectricBadger)
Hoopla -1 (Gorrad)

Not Voting

Vaya
AlmasterGM
Hoopla
ortolan

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline is October 10th, midnight.

AlmasterGM · Post Post #509 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:17 am

True, true, true...

I'l go along with the plan if everyone else will.

Gorrad · Post Post #510 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2009 1:35 pm

AlmasterGM wrote:Why would I have claimed cop if I was scum? Nobody suspected me at all before. There's zero reason for me to invent that claim.

I totally suspected you.

ortolan · Post Post #511 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2009 6:09 pm

nah I can't roleblock

ortolan · Post Post #512 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2009 11:03 pm

Vaya, who do you think the scum is here?

Hoopla · Post Post #513 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2009 1:09 am

Everyone should post their opinions of what the set-up is. I know it's 3:9, but I want to know if people genuinely believe I am an SK.

ortolan · Post Post #514 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2009 1:21 am

Gorrad · Post Post #515 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2009 3:48 am

Honestly? I think it's either 3-9 or 2-1-9. Though conceivable, I rather doubt we'd be set up against a 3-1-9.

Gorrad · Post Post #516 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2009 3:49 am

...Math fail. Last should read 3-1-8, not 3-1-9.

Hoopla · Post Post #517 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2009 4:11 am

Gorrad wrote:Honestly? I think it's either 3-9 or 2-1-9. Though conceivable, I rather doubt we'd be set up against a 3-1-9.

I agree, especially when you consider the bomb to be not a positive town role.

AlmasterGM · Post Post #518 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2009 5:19 am

I agree with those two setup options.

Even so, though, it doesn't seem like there is any foolproof way for the town to win. Every plan revolves around trusting somebody. What I think we should do, therefore, is all create a trust --> suspect list. We can then create a plan that optimizes trustworthiness against potency (e.g., if we decide Gorrad is the most trustworthy, we'll go with the best plan that doesn't need to verify his role). Here's my list, for example:

ortolan
Gorrad
EB
Hoopla
Vaya

Are we in agreement? I don't think there's any other way to do this.

Hoopla · Post Post #519 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2009 5:31 am

Why do you trust ortolan?

AlmasterGM · Post Post #520 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2009 5:32 am

Hoopla wrote:Why do you trust ortolan?

I investigated him last night and got he came up town. Granted, he could be a Godfather, but I'm more inclined to trust the read than to ignore it.

Hoopla · Post Post #521 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2009 5:36 am

Hmm, okay, but if there was a cop (and a JOAT), there is quite likely going to be a godfather, which is only possible out of Vaya and ortolan.

My list:

EB/Gorrad (90% town)

BIG GAP

Alamaster
ortolan/Vaya

AlmasterGM · Post Post #522 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2009 6:08 am

How about this:

1) Lynch Vaya
2) Hoopla Vig ortolan
3) ortolan protects Gorrad.
4) The scum have to target either myself or Hoopla (they can't kill EB, it'll kill them).
5) Gorrad and EB are left in the endgame with either myself or Hoopla.

Personally, I don't think this is the optimal choice because Gorrad's PR isn't as useful as mine, but since people don't trust me as much as Gorrad and there may be a Godfather, it seems to be the best option.

Gorrad · Post Post #523 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2009 7:35 am

Ortolan, while we're trying to make the game 100% winnable for town, your cooperation in telling us what abilities you have left would be fantastic.

ortolan · Post Post #524 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2009 11:20 am

I have a doctor ability left, I thought I implied that already.

Also there is clearly nothing close to an autowin for the town here.

I must say Hoops' contention that "oh he might be a godfather" is complete rubbish. The only reason she has for suspecting me is that my role contradicts hers (and she claimed at a time when there was no evidence of my role to place her in bad light). The fact that she then ignores a claimed cop innocent on me is just further proof she is not looking for scum but is looking for a way to justify her own claimed role.

Vaya, who do you suspect?