Mini 837 - Stratego Mafia! (Game Over!)

[charter]

Vote Count

Gorrad - 1 (ElectricBadger)
Hoopla -1 (Gorrad)

Not Voting

Vaya
AlmasterGM
Hoopla
ortolan


With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline is October 10th, midnight.

[Vaya]

I'm fairly certain that EB is not mafia, given that mafia had a miner and no other bombs have claimed. Of all the players, I'm the most certain that he's town.

I've had a gut town read on ortolan all game. And I don't see ort-scum claiming targets that would make him look so suspicious. I'm inclined to believe that he's telling the truth about his claim and is town.

Not that I particularly think that he's scum, but could someone explain why everyone seems so sure that Gorrad is town? Is it because he bread-crumbed that he was a miner, because it doesn't seem like much of a stretch to believe that the mafia have two miners. Right now, in my mind, he could potentially be the remaining mafia member.

I'm very suspicious of Almaster's cop claim. I think that he may just be trying to set himself up for endgame, as ortolan mentioned. He probably was planning to just go into the next day with a "guilty result" and try to get an easy lynch, and perhaps even get ort to waste his protection on him so that he can kill tonight without worrying about failing.

I have a few reasons that I am skeptical of this claim.
1. I find it really odd that he claims to have investigated Kast, when I don't recall him speaking a word of suspicion against him.
2. As somewhat mentioned before, three investigative roles(traker, jack, cop) seem a tad excessive for the town.

Almaster is my biggest suspect for being the remaining mafia.

However, Hoopla is probably the best lynch for today. If she is a SK, which I do believe is a possibility, then leaving her alive means that two town could be killed tonight, pushing the number of town into the minority and taking the ability to win this game out of our hands. I do not believe that she is the remaining mafia, but I don't want to take the risk of her being a SK and leave her alive another night.

Vote: Hoopla

[Hoopla]

How about this:

1) Lynch Vaya
2) Hoopla Vig ortolan
3) ortolan protects Gorrad.
4) The scum have to target either myself or Hoopla (they can't kill EB, it'll kill them).
5) Gorrad and EB are left in the endgame with either myself or Hoopla.

Personally, I don't think this is the optimal choice because Gorrad's PR isn't as useful as mine, but since people don't trust me as much as Gorrad and there may be a Godfather, it seems to be the best option.

I think this is the closest we've got to a winnable plan. We come up with deaths of ortolan, Vaya, then you/me, with a back-up lynch just in case. Why aren't we pushing this plan?

[ortolan]

I agree Hoops is the only really viable lynch for today, there's no way of confirming her without lynching her and she's claimed the potential "SK"/"vig" set of kills. Lynching her, correctly or incorrectly, can't lose us the game- we end up either in a win or, more likely, MyoL where we have a mafia player still to find.

Bear in mind at the time she claimed there was no evidence of my role in the game (I acknowledge that the only evidence currently is the fact I've claimed it). She can't have expected there to be a JOAT in the game to undermine her role therefore if she were indeed an SK, she would have underestimated the risk of claiming vig at the time.

I agree with all of Vaya's opinions above.

Anyhow, unless there's anything else, lynch Hoops.

Also, in reply to Hoops above. Sorry, it's really scummy that you're pushing that plan, it accomplishes precisely nothing that we want it to.

What happens is Vaya dies, I die, Gorrad doesn't die, Hoopla survives, Almaster survives as he is scum, we're left with two townies vs SK/mafia in end-game. That's terrible. Instead, we should lynch the likely scum-Hoopla, then end up in myoL with at most one mafia player to find.

[ortolan]

also if Hoops is un-NKable SK, she's left in stalemate where if they lynch her, town gets endgamed, if they lynch anyone else Hoops automatically wins because she can't be night-killed. I guess Hoops just totally "forgot" the plan doesn't work if she is un-NKable SK, which she probably is.

[ortolan]

Yer I'm increasingly sure the scum is just Hoops and Almaster (IIRC I thought Vaya was potential SK but he hasn't done anything explicitly scummy, it was more I thought his play was scummy by omission).

Claiming that plan is in some way pro-town from either of their perspectives is laughable

Vote: Hoopla

[Hoopla]

Understandable. I hope when I die, ortolan doesn't live until endgame.

[ortolan]

(if you are in fact town, which looks very unlikely), remind me to ask you after the game what you think I would have to gain by counter-claiming your role as scum, when I didn't know whether you were SK or vig

[Hoopla]

What would I have had to gain from claiming vig when I could have had EB lynched today and coasted into lylo?

It works both ways.

[ortolan]

Happy birthday!

[Hoopla]

I don't understand why people think I'm a SK, when the reason I came out and claimed was to save EB's life. How does that make sense?

By preventing his death, it means it increases the chances of getting myself lynched, lynching a mafia (and if that didn't win the game, it would prove I was a SK), or vigging the last mafia (which if it didn't win the game would prove I am an SK).

You can argue the wifom point, that I'm trying to get to endgame, but I could have got there anyway if I didn't come out and claim. Why would I take those extra risks for no gain?

[ortolan]

Actually, the day started with Gorrad and myself voting for you. Then due to mass-claim, EB looked bad- he was accused of being an SK. As an SK (or a vig) you would know he wasn't the SK he was being accused of. You would also know that when he was lynched and flipped town you were very likely going to be a default lynch the day after, thereby losing you the game. Your actions in claiming are therefore perfectly consistent with you being scum. Also, at that point you would also have lead a paper trail of three deaths to contradict your vig claim. Your kill on Kast d1 looks far more like killing someone putting pressure on you rather than killing someone you suspected. Your kill on WLC day two makes perfect sense in the leadup to a vig claim (which you started effectively breadcrumbing at the start of day 3)- both you and I clearly thought him scummy enough to target.

[AlmasterGM]

EB, can we get your opinion on the state of things?

[ElectricBadger]

Very sorry for the low post rate lately. 14 hour days at work, plus school, loses. I should be more with it from here on.

I think Hoopla is the worst lynch today, because he's the easiest to prove/disprove without costing anyone else's action. Hoops - so far, the group seems intent upon killing you today, yes? I *think* you're town...but I can see this as a desperate SK play to earn town cred.

Would you agree to target yourself tonight, if we passed you for the lynch? This avoids our having to spend a lynch on you today: we could target someone else likely to be scum. If you don't suicide, we kill you tomorrow, and town still wins. If you do, and we miss scum today, we have one more chance tomorrow, with 3 less players.

That means 2 town and 1 scum, and 4 of the 6 of us dead, which is excellent odds for finding our baddie.

This all, of course, assumes 3 scum total. Otherwise we're pretty well screwed, but I don't expect that.

[ortolan]

I don't know why you would assume 3 scum total.

in a 8v3v1 (i.e. 3 man mafia and an SK) setup a Tracker, a JOAT (if you believe my claim) and a PGO (not counting Gorrad's role as its usefulness is neutral) is a decently powered town in and of itself. IF Almaster actually IS A COP (and furthermore if Hoops is actually a vig), a 3-man scum-team is woefully, woefully, horribly, terribly underpowered.

Your plan does not work, because what Hoops will do is just not target herself- if we fail to lynch the mafia player or she fails to cross-kill them (and she will be trying her hardest to not cross-kill them so it's not going to happen); then we end up in a scenario with 2 town, 1 mafia and Hoops-SK alive. If we lynch her, then the mafia night-kills and town gets endgamed. So in fact we will not get to lynch her, unless we do it today. You need to lynch the claimed killing role, it's absolutely textbook play. The risk of her being an SK (and her positively un-vig-like play d1), particularly with the information we have about the setup, is simply too great.

[ortolan]

meh, tbh, yes, I'm not actually sold on Hoops definitely being an SK, but, lynching her is a necessity. At that point we definitely get a lynch to hit scum (and at four players u should definitely nolynch). Not lynching her is wilfully taking control out of the hands of the town.

[Hoopla]

The thing is though, we have to take a gamble on at least 2 people's alignments. We can't kill everyone. If you gamble on my alignment correctly and I am town, we increase the amount of town aligned kills we can have, and we almost certainly will win.

If you lynch me, you will only get one shot the next day at hitting the mafia (regardless of whether I am town or not), because you're increasing the amount of players that the town cannot kill.

I understand why I am the probable lynch choice, but I don't agree with it.

[AlmasterGM]

I don't really see any flaws in ortolan's logic. We can't take a risk. Minimally, even if Hoops isn't the SK, we will be down to 1 NK per night, so we'll have another two rounds to find the final scum.

Are we ready to hammer? If nobody objects, I'll do it.

[Hoopla]

I don't really see any flaws in ortolan's logic. We can't take a risk. Minimally, even if Hoops isn't the SK, we will be down to 1 NK per night, so we'll have another two rounds to find the final scum.

Are we ready to hammer? If nobody objects, I'll do it.

No, if you lynch me, you get ONE shot at hitting the mafia the next day.

[ElectricBadger]

I'm still not seeing Hoop's claim as a good SK move. Allowing Gorrad to move ahead against me would have cost us a kill, and the backlash on Gorrad for targetting me would have given Hoops a very good chance of avoiding a lynch himself.

And I'm still not sold on Gorrad as town. I see mafia faking a role to out and kill a bomb - a major danger to NK's - as more likely than a town bomb and town miner. I think he assumed the Vig kills were an SK, and as he speculated in public assumed the bomb was the SK. Had this been successful, he would have been cemented as town; if not, as is happening now he could still duck behind the role. I think a real miner would have waited until night to target me, not tried to maneuver a gambit into a lynch.

[AlmasterGM]

And I'm still not sold on Gorrad as town. I see mafia faking a role to out and kill a bomb - a major danger to NK's - as more likely than a town bomb and town miner. I think he assumed the Vig kills were an SK, and as he speculated in public assumed the bomb was the SK. Had this been successful, he would have been cemented as town; if not, as is happening now he could still duck behind the role. I think a real miner would have waited until night to target me, not tried to maneuver a gambit into a lynch.

If Gorrad is scum, then there's two miners on the scumteam - Synx was also a miner. I suppose it's possible, but it seems extremely unlikely as it really waters down the usefulness of the bomb. I do agree with you, though, that Gorrad's way of going about things wasn't very optimal.

[ElectricBadger]

You're assuming his role claim is correct. I don't think it is.

[AlmasterGM]

You're assuming his role claim is correct. I don't think it is.

Hmm, good point. You might have said this already, but do you blow up anyone who targets you during the night? Or is it NK + hammers?

[ElectricBadger]

Nope; I was deliberately avoiding the question earlier, when there was a wagon on me, since Gorrad's willingness to step up might have helped confirm or deny his claim. My role mentions nothing about hammers; it only specifies that anyone who targets me with a night action will be killed, unless they're a miner.

Unfortunately, the specific wording of my role doesn't seem to imply either single or multiple miners.

I'm just not seeing a town role whose only purpose is to vanillify or kill a fellow townie.

[charter]

Prodding Gorrad.