Newbie 817 (Game over!)

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Post Post #425 (ISO) » Tue Sep 29, 2009 5:57 pm

Post by bouchedufou »

I'm vanilla too.

Sorry guys, I had an assignment due. And pretty much what I'd expected. No roles at all. What now, guys?
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Post Post #426 (ISO) » Wed Sep 30, 2009 12:20 pm

Post by crazypianist1116 »

Zorblag wrote:I'll talk about why I think that after bouchedufou claims. I know that it looks like I'm obstructing things unnecessarily but I really do have a reason for this and it shouldn't take much longer to finish the mass claim at all with only one left to go.

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So what's your theory?
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Post Post #427 (ISO) » Wed Sep 30, 2009 4:58 pm

Post by Zorblag »

OK, thanks for letting that finish up. Now it's time for me to open up a bit.

There wasn't any really good reason to think that power roles would have come out yet despite what was said. A doctor with no successful protections doesn't have any motivation to say anything as they don't on their own have any information to provide and a cop without any guilty results (and that also didn't have two live innocent results) might not come out either. It's not shocking that we didn't end up with any power roles but there wasn't a great reason to be sure we didn't have any.

I also wanted to see if it would affect bouchedufou's claim. He did earlier say that he thought there weren't any power roles in the game. If he's town I was really pretty sure he was vanilla. If he was scum I wanted to give him more reasons to think that claiming a power role might be a good plan as that would essentially out him as scum.

What we've got in terms of information now is that we are indeed in a power role free game. That means that the scum has a roleblocker in addition to a goon. Goons should be slightly more inclined to try to protect roleblockers in the early game by using chainsaw defenses, trying to shift attention away from the roleblocker and what not. We'd want to keep an eye out for those anyhow but now we know that one scum was less expendable than the other at the start so we know what dynimic in particular we're looking for.

Past the claim our best plan today is to lynch either Starbuck or startransmission. I don't care how poorly organized the scum might be, there's no way that a vote by a townie on another townie is going to sit there for 20 days without the scum team getting coordinated enough to hammer. At least one of those two has to be scum.

startransmissions's vote came as soon as the day started. He sites his post 287 for reasons (though I don't think he meant that as 287 doesn't really have anything to do with Starbuck.) His main case throughout day two seems to have been based on the how Starbuck was part of the wagon on Maemuki day one which looks like it involved a fair amount of action right at the deadline. I'm really not seeing a case that he should be comfortable enough to vote with his opening post in what he knows is LyLo.

Starbuck's vote on startransmission doesn't actually look particularly better to me than startransmissions does. I'm not following the case she's trying to make at all at the end there. It seems more like an excuse to vote for startransmission than anything else (especially when she says that she'd been getting a townie reading from him until what she's saying is a contradiction.) She's experienced enough to be able to realize that his vote staying on her as long as it has in LyLo should make it clear that he's got to be scum if she's town.

For the other two players, I don't want to focus on them too much today as I don't have any interest in lynching either of them given the alternative. I will say that I do find bouchedufou's current attitude to be troubling. He's using that there aren't any power roles in the game as an excuse to hang back and not do anything. He also decided that there weren't any power roles way too early. Now that we know there aren't any power roles we know that scum have a roleblocker and would have know that there were either zero or two power roles. That makes it much easier to guess that there aren't power roles in the game (especially as the scum would most likely have been hunting for them.)

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Post Post #428 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2009 11:40 am

Post by startransmission »

Troll wrote: If you'd like to win this game then I'd recommend applying just a bit more patience for now. Given your views I can see how you don't think this is useful but a mass claim, if done right, should help the town if only to be sure about the situation that they're in. I'm less convinced than you are that there will be no power role claims but even if that turns out to be true we'll be helped down the road by committing scum to a particular position.
I see your point here and I agree. As it turns out there were no power roles claimed, but I like your point about committing scum to a particular position. Also, you're right about me needing to be a little more patient. I was frustrated by how much the game has slowed down today, and I was doubtful that we would get a mass claim in a reasonable time frame. Thankfully we did.
Troll wrote:startransmissions's vote came as soon as the day started. He sites his post 287 for reasons (though I don't think he meant that as 287 doesn't really have anything to do with Starbuck.) His main case throughout day two seems to have been based on the how Starbuck was part of the wagon on Maemuki day one which looks like it involved a fair amount of action right at the deadline. I'm really not seeing a case that he should be comfortable enough to vote with his opening post in what he knows is LyLo.
Yeah, I meant post 299.

What other case do I have,
especially
since we are at LyLo? I don't really have much of a case against anybody else. Is it unreasonable for me to think that there were scum on the Mae wagon? The combination of Starbucks timing and the fact that she is the only remaining person on that wagon that I don't know to be town is as strong a case as I can muster at this point. And I don't think it's weak.
Troll wrote:Starbuck's vote on startransmission doesn't actually look particularly better to me than startransmissions does. I'm not following the case she's trying to make at all at the end there. It seems more like an excuse to vote for startransmission than anything else (especially when she says that she'd been getting a townie reading from him until what she's saying is a contradiction.) She's experienced enough to be able to realize that his vote staying on her as long as it has in LyLo should make it clear that he's got to be scum if she's town.
Thank you for noticing the contradiction. To be fair it's (hypothetically) possible that both Starbuck and I are both town and she just figured I was just a townie that was insanely wrong and was barking up the wrong tree. But I don't believe that for a second, and her case against me was something that I've been waiting for. I wasn't sure how it was going to come, and I think the fact that her case against me has come so late and is so weak shows that she is desperate for some excuse to vote me. I would imagine the mafia pair hoped to find a better case against me, have one vote for me, hope that an undecided townie would vote for me based off that case, and let the other hammer me. And I knew it would be Starbuck presenting a case- her partner is flying under the radar right now, and probably wants to keep it that way.
Troll wrote:For the other two players, I don't want to focus on them too much today as I don't have any interest in lynching either of them given the alternative.
Again I agree. As I said earlier I'm interested in other peoples cases against each other, but unless somebody convincingly admits to being scum my vote won't be moving. My focus is solely on Starbuck, and I hope to convince people that she is the right lynch.
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Post Post #429 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2009 3:13 pm

Post by Zorblag »

startransmission wrote:What other case do I have,
especially
since we are at LyLo? I don't really have much of a case against anybody else. Is it unreasonable for me to think that there were scum on the Mae wagon? The combination of Starbucks timing and the fact that she is the only remaining person on that wagon that I don't know to be town is as strong a case as I can muster at this point. And I don't think it's weak.
In LyLo you've got an entire game's worth of connections and interactions to look at as well as complete voting patterns. I'll get to that in a bit but let's start with the case you're pushing on Starbuck. From what you've said this game I think that you should think that it's weak which is one of the things that bothering me. Here are some quotes from you that express an idea that I very much agree with:
startransmission in [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=1781076#1781076]Post 17[/url] wrote:A no lynch is a fucking disaster. Those who argue for it are always firmly at the top of my scum list. Just saying. I'd go into it, but our illustrious IC would do a better job.
startransmission in [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=1828743#1828743]Post 287[/url] wrote:Of course a lynch is better than a no lynch, I'm not suspicious of you just because you hammered. The hammer vote is always scrutinized, but for me your hammer stands out because of the timing, and your reasons.
No Lynch on day one is a terrible choice for town. It's better to lynch someone you have a neutral read on than it is to let the day end in a no lynch. Personally I'd rather self hammer than let a day one end in no lynch in most cases as town and I tell townies to never self hammer and mean it beyond that one situation.

Both days thus far have come ridiculously close to deadline before a lynch happened. When you're down to the last 24 hours of the day as town you have every reason to shift your votes to someone who has a chance of getting lynched over someone who doesn't. That's exactly what both Starbuck and hiphop did day one and they were down to something like 3 hours. If they hadn't both changed their votes as they did it really looks to me like there would have been no lynch which would have been a worse move for the town than lynching a townie. Either hiphop or Starbuck, were they scum, would have had good reason to sit on their votes, let the day end in a no lynch, take a free night kill and then start day two with just as much suspicion on Maemuki as there was going in.

Your case seems to be that the two of them cast opportunistic last minute votes that ended in a mislynch but it wasn't one that stopped another lynch that might have been scum. It was a mislynch that the town should have been making rather than doing nothing at all. That you express the detriment of a no lynch as strongly as you do tells me that you should see that. It looks a lot like you're setting up an excuse to lynch hiphop and Starbuck in consecutive days in a situation where the town loses if it makes two consecutive mistakes and you're setting it up for flimsy reasons.

Throughout day two the two people you spent nearly the entirety of your energy trying to get lynched were Starbuck and hiphop. You seemed to decide at some point that crazypianist1116 was a probable scum partner for Starbuck if she was scum (I need to look at how you decided that but I'm not I could see your case there) but really your attention didn't particularly leave them at all. Now you're carrying the same case which, like I said isn't one that should be consistent with your beliefs, over to LyLo and using as a reason to vote without any other attempts to look at the rest of the game as soon as the day starts.

In fact, getting back to the idea of looking at the connections and interactions that we have from throughout the game, I was struck during my last read of you in isolation by how little you've had to say about either crazypianist or bouchedufou the entire game. For bouchedufou in particular the most that you've had to say about him came in Post 159 which is really easy to see as a chainsaw defense against Starbuck when she's drawing attention to him.
startransmission wrote:To be fair it's (hypothetically) possible that both Starbuck and I are both town and she just figured I was just a townie that was insanely wrong and was barking up the wrong tree.
I don't buy that at all. Like I said in my last post, if you were both town that would mean that the the two scum who would have won by hammering Starbuck held of on doing so for almost three entire weeks. I can buy it taking a bit of time for them to coordinate but not that long. Either you or Starbuck or both are scum. I need to see what Starbuck has to say for herself because I like her play recently about as little as I like what you've done since day two and I need to see some more reactions for everyone else but if deadline was coming up you would be my current first choice for a lynch.

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Post Post #430 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2009 10:24 am

Post by Zorblag »

So that approach apparently is the way to get this group going. Let's try something slightly different. I'm looking to get reactions here to use for both the decision today and for decisions that get made later. We'll have to get today right for the later part to matter but I'll be optimistic for now. No one should feel that they are obligated to respond to everything that I'm saying or that I'm bringing up the only topics that might be of interest but these will be a place to start. Mafia is a game of information and reactions so it behooves the town to be talking now and sharing what they've come up with after watching most of a game's worth of play already.

@bouchedufou, you seem to be unsure about what we should be doing now so let me throw some observations that I've got about what I see when I look at your play. You can react to those as well as possibly doing the same to other players. We're at a stage in the game where there is a lot to look back through and draw upon. Not having power roles really isn't that big an issue if people have been playing the game and we can see what they've had to say.

As I've decided that Starbuck or startransmission are the reasonable lynch candidates for today (another thing that you could do is argue that I'm making a mistake when I come to that conclusion if you think I am) I've taken a look at what you've done to interact with the two of them thus far this game. Just like I think that startransmission has largely ignored you barring an attack on an attack on you from Starbuck it seems that you've had very little in the way of thoughts about startransmission compared to other players. Before this game day the biggest thing I can find other than saying you agree with things that he said about others is what appears to be a slight defense of him in the form of questioning the attacks made against him back in Post 53. With Starbuck on the other hand you have been expressing opinions throughout the game. They've been a bit up and down but from my read you seem to think that she's town more often than you think she's scum.

Would you say those characterizations are fair? What are your thoughts about our two stars now?

@crazypianist1116, I liked how you started this game a fair amount. If anyone was paying attention to everything that was going on it was you. That seems to have tapered off some recently. It'd be great if you could go back and use the same eye for details that you were showing the first day and see what you think of Starbuck and startransmission now. Since I've arrived you've had your opinion change from disliking startransmission becuase he rubs you the wrong way to disliking Starbuck because her most recent vote was a weak one. Those are both all well and good (and to be fair up till now what I've said about Starbuck isn't really that much more complicated than saying that her reason for voting is weak) but what would you like to see from them to help you decide if you had to pick one of the two to lynch? What have they done already that I've missed in my read throughs?

@Starbuck, I'd like to know a couple things from you. Why were you thinking that startransmission was likely town? It doesn't look like that's what you're thinking when you say things like:
Starbuck wrote:I also DID make my case on Mae and DID state that besides hiphop that she was scummiest to me. I was wrong. Unfortunately now, we are in LYLO. We need to be very careful. You came right out of the gate voting and I think you are trying to push for a quicklynch.
How did you find the statements from startransmission that you quoted most recently to be a scum slip as I'm not seeing it. Both of those things he's said are things that I'd have no trouble saying if I were town.

I'm claiming that both you and startransmission are taking his vote in LyLo too lightly. What do you make of that assertion? Is it a fair criterion to be looking at? Does it describe your attitudes correctly?

Looking back at your day two play and your reasons for voting hiphop I see that you're using a very similar argument to startransmission; you found the fact that hiphop chose to hammer some he had a neutral read on at deadline rather than letting a no lynch occur scummy. Do you think that no lynch would be preferable to a lynch you weren't certain of at deadline on day one in general? Am I just spouting nonsense when I say that a no lynch is one of the worst things that can happen to a town day one in this setup?

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Post Post #431 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2009 10:54 am

Post by crazypianist1116 »

Zorblag wrote:@crazypianist1116, I liked how you started this game a fair amount. If anyone was paying attention to everything that was going on it was you. That seems to have tapered off some recently. It'd be great if you could go back and use the same eye for details that you were showing the first day and see what you think of Starbuck and startransmission now. Since I've arrived you've had your opinion change from disliking startransmission becuase he rubs you the wrong way to disliking Starbuck because her most recent vote was a weak one. Those are both all well and good (and to be fair up till now what I've said about Starbuck isn't really that much more complicated than saying that her reason for voting is weak) but what would you like to see from them to help you decide if you had to pick one of the two to lynch? What have they done already that I've missed in my read throughs?
Well I have to be honest. School started at the beginning of September, and since then, I haven't had a ton of time. I'm reading what's being said (I really liked 429 btw). Your point that one of them must be scum is most likely true. Scum would have quicklynched in that time.
I think I'd like to see better cases from both of them. Starbuck's is weak. Start's was essentially all made on Day 2.

To you, start, and starbuck: Who do you think the other mafia is?
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Post Post #432 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2009 12:25 pm

Post by Elmo »

Day 3, Vote Count #3

Starbuck <- startransmission
startransmission <- Starbuck

Not voting: crazypianist1116, bouchedufou, Zorblag.

The
deadline
is Thursday 8th October, 22:00 UTC, which is 5 days, 22 hours and 34 minutes from this post. If deadline hits, there will be No Lynch. With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch.
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Post Post #433 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2009 3:41 pm

Post by Starbuck »

I think the other mafia is Bouched.
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Post Post #434 (ISO) » Sat Oct 03, 2009 3:16 am

Post by Zorblag »

Any other reactions to anything this page Starbuck?

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Post Post #435 (ISO) » Sat Oct 03, 2009 8:08 am

Post by startransmission »

Troll wrote:I'm claiming that both you and startransmission are taking his vote in LyLo too lightly. What do you make of that assertion? Is it a fair criterion to be looking at? Does it describe your attitudes correctly?
I'm taking LyLo too lightly? I have made up my mind that Starbuck is scum, and I voted for her right off the bat. I've explained why I believe Starbuck to be scum, and I really believe my case against her holds water. I have refused to get into distracting discussions as to who the partner might be, because that conversation is academic unless we lynch scum today. That is a discussion for tomorrow, if it comes.

I have been posting content, answering questions, and presenting arguments. I don't see how I'm taking this lightly. I recently posted how important winning this is to me (which is apparently a scumtell) and I think my history in this particular game demonstrates that.

Starbuck on the other hand has posted several one sentence posts today, and when she does say something it's badly explained or just doesn't make a lot of sense. That includes her vote for me. So if anyone is taking things lightly it is her.

@Crazy- what about my case against Starbuck do you feel needs to be clarified/improved? Why does it bother you that it hasn't changed much since Day 2, considering that there has been very little content from her so far today?
Troll wrote:Looking back at your day two play and your reasons for voting hiphop I see that you're using a very similar argument to startransmission; you found the fact that hiphop chose to hammer some he had a neutral read on at deadline rather than letting a no lynch occur scummy. Do you think that no lynch would be preferable to a lynch you weren't certain of at deadline on day one in general? Am I just spouting nonsense when I say that a no lynch is one of the worst things that can happen to a town day one in this setup?
I have to correct you here.
One
of my beefs with hiphop was that he chose to hammer somebody that he said he felt was
town
. Not neutral, he was specific about that. If he had said neutral I would not have been on him so hard, at least not that early in Day 2. There were other factors in my suspicion with him. I absolutely agree that a no-lynch is one of the worst things that can happen. I made clear that the hammer itself was not what raised my suspicion.
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Post Post #436 (ISO) » Sat Oct 03, 2009 8:41 am

Post by Zorblag »

Yes, you're taking a vote at the start of LyLo too lightly. You're acting as though it was reasonable to cast it before doing anything to get new information (such as the mass claim) which simply isn't true. Additionally, as I've already said, you jumped right in and cast your vote despite the fact that it was based on a reason that you shouldn't have found compelling anyhow. If you're trying to win the game then as town you should absolutely get every edge you can to be sure that you're maximizing your chances of hitting scum in LyLo and you've completely failed to do that. If you are town then you're lucky that you happened to latch on to a scum acting in a way that runs counter to their own interest near deadline on day one.

That vote as it was cast is only reasonable if you're scum and hoping that people would follow your lead without stopping to look at the situation. Claiming otherwise (which you're continuing to do even now) is taking voting in LyLo lightly. It has nothing to do with your level of participation.

As for hiphop, he knew that he was town at the end of day one. There were eight other players of which two were scum and six were town. When he says that he thinks he's got a 75% chance of hitting town he's giving what he would if he didn't have any information. It's absolutely a neutral read no matter how you want to spin it.

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Post Post #437 (ISO) » Sat Oct 03, 2009 11:33 am

Post by Elmo »

bouchedufou has requested replacement.
edit: DarkLightA replaces bouchedufou. Thanks!
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Post Post #438 (ISO) » Mon Oct 05, 2009 4:57 am

Post by Zorblag »

Welcome to the game, DarkLightA. I look forward to hearing your thoughts on our current situation.

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Post Post #439 (ISO) » Mon Oct 05, 2009 8:28 am

Post by startransmission »

Troll wrote:You're acting as though it was reasonable to cast it before doing anything to get new information (such as the mass claim) which simply isn't true.
I made clear at the end of Day 2 that if hiphop flipped town I would be going after Starbuck. I followed through. I wasn't interested in a quicklynch, which I pointed out, so I don't see how my vote does anything to curb the amount of information we can get today. In fact the vote is there because a.) I believe Starbuck to be scum and I want to be clear on that and b.) I wanted to engage Starbuck in a debate. That would help me and the rest of the town with who her partner might be. Sadly Starbuck and company have done nothing to engage with todays proceedings. So I might as well not even have a vote on her for all the good it's doing.

And I was skeptical of a mass claim
because
of the inactivity. Because as you say Starbuck and I are the focus for a lynch today I wanted to use the time to convince people that my assertion that she is scum has some merit. But you were right, I've never done a mass claim before and I was dubious of its merits. But people claimed and now everyone is locked into a role. So, lesson learned.
Troll wrote:Additionally, as I've already said, you jumped right in and cast your vote despite the fact that it was based on a reason that you shouldn't have found compelling anyhow. If you're trying to win the game then as town you should absolutely get every edge you can to be sure that you're maximizing your chances of hitting scum in LyLo and you've completely failed to do that. If you are town then you're lucky that you happened to latch on to a scum acting in a way that runs counter to their own interest near deadline on day one.
I'm sorry we have a difference of opinion on the strength of my case. I find my reason to be very compelling. I don't have much of a case on anybody else. As I've said, in my opinion because it's lylo I'm going to press for a lynch on the person I believe is scum. I appreciate any discussion as to whom else could be scum, but unless I see an airtight case presented, my vote sticks. And frankly, Starbucks play today is so inconsistent with her play earlier in the game that it surprises me. It appears that she has either given up or is purposefully posting her one sentence posts to avoid prod and replacement and waste the towns time, giving no information, and waiting for the inactivity to turn into a no lynch.

And her vote for me is such a scumtell I can't believe it's not being challenged more.
Troll wrote:That vote as it was cast is only reasonable if you're scum and hoping that people would follow your lead without stopping to look at the situation. Claiming otherwise (which you're continuing to do even now) is taking voting in LyLo lightly. It has nothing to do with your level of participation.
Again, you make it sound like I'm pushing for a quicklynch, something I made clear I didn't want at the beginning of the day. I'm just letting my frame of mind be known, and I would hope that town does look around and make a thought out decision on who deserves their vote.
Troll wrote:As for hiphop, he knew that he was town at the end of day one. There were eight other players of which two were scum and six were town. When he says that he thinks he's got a 75% chance of hitting town he's giving what he would if he didn't have any information. It's absolutely a neutral read no matter how you want to spin it.
I might be misunderstanding you here. hiphop knew that he was town when he got his role pm. The math is right on the odds of hitting town, but that's not what I was talking about when I said I found it scummy when he said that he thought Mae was town. I wasn't the first person to point out that it was a suspicious statement, so I don't see how I'm spinning anything.


Welcome DarklightA. I know it's quite a bit of reading, but I'm anxious to read your take on things.
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Post Post #440 (ISO) » Mon Oct 05, 2009 9:53 am

Post by DarkLightA »

/in as replacement.

I'll be rereading tomorrow. Seems like a nice group of people =)
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Post Post #441 (ISO) » Mon Oct 05, 2009 1:52 pm

Post by Zorblag »

Hmm, I'm going to step back from this particular game for a bit and try to explain why it's not a good idea to cast a vote right away in LyLo. In this game we've gone into the last day with 3 town and 2 scum. Regardless of their intentions of having a quick lynch or not any townie who votes right off the start and doesn't have something like a cop investigation to be sure that they're right is risking getting it wrong, voting for another member of the town and letting the scum get that quick hammer in.

In fact that's what happened to the town in the last game that we played together (Newbie Game 698.) charter and GnKoichi were convinced incorrectly that each other were scum and I think they both threw down votes in LyLo for eachother. Before they came to their sense nuriens and I managed to coordinate a hammer for the win. I'm not sure that the town would have figured out what was going on there if they'd taken more time but with the early votes they didn't have a chance to.

Another example of early day voting gone wrong would be Tofu Mafia where the final day came down to Elmo, myself and Vi (who happened to be scum.) Elmo voted for me very early in the final day (I recall it being his first post though I'd have to look back and check) because he was sure enough about Vi's play being protown to think that I must be scum. Now I'll certainly admit that Vi had me fooled as well; I was pretty sure that Elmo was scum in that game but there was information that I wanted to sort through before voting. It turns out that if we had held up a bit Vi would likely have voted for Elmo to show that he wasn't just hanging back (which scum might be inclined to do) which would have had the effect of confirming for Elmo that I was town when I didn't hammer him directly after. The quick vote took away that chance. Again, I'm not going to say that I'm sure no early vote would have lead to a different outcome but it would have allowed for the possibility of one.

Actually, Tofu mafia had another good example of LyLo voting gone wrong (this time for the scum team.) The second to last day Vi's partner, Ectomancer, opened the day with a vote for me. As I've said I was town and I did a poor job of figuring out who scum were that game. If even one townie had followed Ectomancer's lead and voted for me then Vi would have come in and hammered for the win. As it was no one else did. The day dragged on to the point where it was clear we were in a situation there like we are now. I knew that if Ectomancer wasn't scum that I would have been hammered by the two scum eventually. When it didn't happen I was able to correctly conclude that Ecotmancer had to be scum himself. I wouldn't have been able to do that if it hadn't been for his vote for me.

Coming back to this game then, either you're town and you were right (and lucky) that Starbuck is scum or you're scum and an early LyLo vote is safer and likely a pretty reasonable move. Figuring out which of those is the case is the job of the rest of us (well, at least those of us who are town) at this point. A vote from town without something like a cop investigation behind it which lets the scum win if it's wrong is not a move that I like to see people make to start a day. You can intend for the day to go on as long as you want but you're taking away any power you have to prevent a quick lynch.

In the future I'll highly recommend holding off on voting in LyLo in a situation like this. You can express your opinions without a vote but any extra information you gain from examination of the night kill, mass claim, theories that others have that you haven't thought of or whatever are worth taking into account before the vote. Prior to LyLo a vote like you cast to start the day is a fine and in fact an early push for a lynch can be very useful. Once a mislynch will actually cause a loss it's time to exercise more caution.

As for Starbuck's vote for you, the vote itself is just fine. She waited long enough that if she's town she should be sure that you're scum as she didn't get hammered (just like I was able to put that together in Tofu mafia.) What's troublesome is that she hasn't shown that she's aware of that at all; the reasons she gave for the vote don't justify it in LyLo at all. From my perspective you've played a game that could very easily be a pretty simple but well played try from scum to push through two bad decisions quickly (or one bad decision and a bus to make you look really good in a three person endgame) while Starbuck seems to be holding back to see where the game goes while she gives easy answers without reasons. It feels scummy for this stage in the game because town needs to avoid the lynch today but scum can still win so long as their partner is safe tomorrow.

Regarding the hiphop read on Maemuki, I'm not that interested in pursuing it just now as both startransmission and Starbuck seem to have made similar decisions so it doesn't help to distinguish between the two of them. Having said that, hiphop never said that he had a town read on Maemuki that I can see. I don't care if everyone else in the game said that he did, when you take his saying that she had a 25% chance of being scum as a town read despite that it's exactly what he should expect you're spinning it.

tldr: voting very early in a LyLo situation is bad for town to do but a viable strategy for scum if they have more than one player. hiphop never gave Maemuki a town read.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh
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Post Post #442 (ISO) » Mon Oct 05, 2009 9:24 pm

Post by startransmission »

Listen, I see your point. I just know I have scum in my sights. I can't shake that feeling. You call it luck (if I'm right) and I call it deductive reasoning with a dash of logic and instinct.

You bring up some instances of games where a quick vote in LyLo cost the game. If you have the time I'd like you to read the last day of a game I finished up a few weeks ago. I was the cop and led the charge to lynch the IC. I was wrong, and luckily that game wasn't at LyLo. If you can be bothered, read that last day (it's brief) and tell me if I'm making a similar mistake here. I don't think I am. And I had much more information in that game compared to this one.

viewtopic.php?t=11618&postdays=0&postor ... &start=350

I bring it up because of your recent post, and also to illustrate how sensitive I am (now) to myopic cases and lynches. I'm really trying to not be careless, but I do believe I have scum in my scope.
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Post Post #443 (ISO) » Mon Oct 05, 2009 9:37 pm

Post by startransmission »

Also, this game is almost lost. Not to be a negative nancy, but we got about two days at most.

Mod, please prod Starbuck and Crazy.
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Post Post #444 (ISO) » Tue Oct 06, 2009 2:02 am

Post by DarkLightA »

Ok, I've read the first 4 pages now. Here's a summary so far.

My guess now would be Startransmission - Crazypianist scum pair.
iamausername wrote:
startransmission wrote:as soon as momentum went against Bagsquad, this game got very very quiet. It wreaks of scum sitting on thier hands and waiting for day two.
Considering he was voting BagSquad at the time, this does not sit well with me.

Unvote, Vote: startransmission



P.S. crazypianist, what do you think of Starbuck?
Here iamausername powers up the suspicion on Startransmission. He happens to die at night. This could easily be a way for ST (startransmission) to get away easily with this conflict, seeing as iamausername is one of the more experienced, and would be a quite natural kill. But I'm not setting anything in stone; there are some clever scum around. We (townies) just have to be smarter.

My suspicion of ST also comes from his early posts, and the way I feel he has a 'Don't care' attitude.

The idea of ST - CP pair comes from top of page 3
Here ST helps CP come off with an easy, hypocrytical short post complaining about another short post being short :roll: by supporting CP.

More to come later when I read on.[/url]
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Post Post #445 (ISO) » Tue Oct 06, 2009 2:04 am

Post by DarkLightA »

DarkLightA wrote:He happens to die at night.
'He' is iamausername.

Also, @the no power roles post, unless you are a power role or a mafia, you're correct.
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Post Post #446 (ISO) » Tue Oct 06, 2009 2:04 am

Post by DarkLightA »

that turned out wrong again:

I'm vanilla.

If you are also a vanilla, then there aren't any power roles.
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Post Post #447 (ISO) » Tue Oct 06, 2009 5:21 am

Post by Elmo »

Day 3, Vote Count #4

Starbuck <- startransmission
startransmission <- Starbuck

Not voting: crazypianist1116, bouchedufou, Zorblag.

The
deadline
is Thursday 8th October, 22:00 UTC, which is 2 days, 5 hours and 38 minutes from this post. If deadline hits, there will be No Lynch.
With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch. crazypianist1116 & Starbuck have been prodded.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford
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Post Post #448 (ISO) » Tue Oct 06, 2009 6:45 am

Post by DarkLightA »

Elmo wrote:
Day 3, Vote Count #4

Starbuck <- startransmission
startransmission <- Starbuck
3 to lynch.

This really has me heading for a ST lynch.
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Post Post #449 (ISO) » Tue Oct 06, 2009 8:18 am

Post by crazypianist1116 »

Responding to prod. Sorry, didn't realize I haven't posted in that long, I've been keeping up with reading though.

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