Mini 808 - Rabbit Doubt Mafia: Over!

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So, Haylen is Phily, CSL is Tenchi, and Mastin is still a phantom player, right?

CSL, what specifically do you find scummy about Kmd?

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Scum may also have targeted Kmd yesterday. Several players called Batt town, but a few players also said they'd clear Kmd if Greg turned up town. If you have a good reason for suspecting Batt was the target over Kmd, please clarify.

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There's not a lot you can go on when not everything makes sense to you. I said I'd suspect KMD & MSG if Greg were town and I do.

Why does Greg being town make Kmd likely scum? And could you explain that first sentence to me?

By "Greg" in your question to Batt and me, I'm assuming you meant CSL? Or Kmd?

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With regard to your question -- I'm not completely sure, but I'd definitely like to hear more from Haylen (Phily). It'd be nice of Mastin existed, too.

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Well, considering that Mastin doesn't exist and Haylen hasn't done anything since replacing in, I couldn't claim to have much of a read on either of them.

Why did you pick those players specifically?

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Kmd voting DJ isn't OMGUS. He started the wagon on DJ yesterday on the basis of his voting record. Why would you want Kmd to vote Mastin to "activate inactive players"? Mastin doesn't exist.

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lolwat @ Looker.

Vote: Looker

. What on earth are you talking about?

wat @ Spyrex. Is he the new Mastin? Would make me happy.

Vote count analysis is still against you, DJ, because you were on the wagon for both town lynches. I don't know about the meta arguments against you one way or the other. Could one of you provide a link to the game in question? It seems like answering "is DJ lurking" would be pretty straightforward. Granted, you've stopped lurking since then, but there were some extenuating circumstances.

Kmd hasn't mentioned your "not everyone needs to scumhunt" comment.

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I think being wrong is actually a little bit of a scumtell. Not that you're uniquely guilty of it atm.

Kmd, why are you excluding MSG from the scum trifecta? It seems like he voted Greg even later than Looker. Also, why're you including Tenchi? Since Tenchi may as well not exist (CSL), it seems like it has to be PoE, but I don't understand the basis of your eliminations.

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Being wrong is a slight scumtell because scum has a motive to be wrong and town doesn't. Overreliance on this scumtell is also a scumtell, though, since it's, ye know, only slight.

Did Tenchi uniquely abandon this game, or did he drop several games at once? It's true that Tenchi's spot went empty a little earlier than the others, but I think the D2 cutoff is more because Zaz had trouble finding a replacement than that Tenchi's situation is so much different than Phily's or Mastin's.

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Kmd has been wrong once and right once (well, wrong twice if you count Kre). You, DJ, and Batt have been wrong on both lynches. This is literally more wrong than Kmd, but you're voting Kmd for being wrong. That makes no sense. That's why I'm voting you. Please clarify your read on Kmd if there's more to it.

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Kmd was right about Greg.

I don't think I've ever said that town will be 100% accurate; I'm just saying that their "reads" are more likely to be accurate than are scum's. So they're less likely to be wrong on average (or I'd be willing to bet as much). The alternative would force me to believe that busing happens more frequently than it actually does as far as I've seen.

Fair enough on Tenchi. I'm not crazy about your reported odds on myko and DJ, though. Relying purely on the numbers ignores the influence of actual play on the probability of being correct, which I see as slightly scummy.

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Not crazy about Kmd's explanation for his use of random statistics. I agree with DJ's most recent post as far as Kmd's recent play is concerned. If we want to get really silly, we could assert that Kmd should change his suspect because of the Monty Hall problem, so he shouldn't suspect DJ. We could also assert that DJ is more likely to be right than Kmd for the same reason. (Let me know if Monty Hall doesn't apply for whatever reason; I may not have thought it through correctly.) This kind of logic ignores actual play and promotes random play, which I consider anti-town at best.

However, I don't understand DJ's claim that "checking the rooms was an alternate form of scumhunting." That sounds a little silly to me, since I believe he's already stated that the doors didn't do anything for him.

I may be able to review SD over the weekend. I have a major exam Friday.

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There are other explanations for looking around in rooms, as the business with Batt and the Storage Room from the early game demonstrate. The same bonuses that can apply to town players probably apply to scum. So looking in rooms is certainly playing to win, but it's not playing to win for any particular alignment.

Iecerint enters Corridor, if necessary.
Iecerint enters Room 3

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Monty Hall on Wikipedia.

Kmd, I don't think that your vote on DJ is random; I think you've provided good reasons for it. Rather, I was referring to your response to Looker, where you assumed random lynches. Your comment in post 1341 led me to believe that you were serious about it.

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EBWOP: To make the Monty Hall problem analogy clearer -- scum are cars, townies are goats, players are doors, and someone other than your preferred lynch being mislynched (as in you and DJ/Looker D2) is the host showing the location of one of the goats.

My point was that trying to play assuming random lynch probabilities is unwise and a little silly, as your vote for DJ presumably wasn't totally random but rather based on an analysis of the game.

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I'm currently voting Looker for his bizarre vote on Kmd, but DJ has probably done more troubling stuff over the course of the entire game. I'm going to

Unvote, Vote: DJ

largely on the basis of what Batt, Kmd, and I have mentioned over the course of the past few pages.

This is 3 votes for DJ (Kmd, Batt, me), which puts him at L-2.

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That was awfully quick. It's especially hilarious how Looker basically told CSL to hammer in spite of the fact that Looker wasn't voting DJ. <_<

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I am not scum. That list probably isn't any more accurate than your similar lists D1 and D3.

Are those just your 3 most suspicious players, or is there a basis for connections between those players?

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On what basis is MSG town? On what basis is Phily (Haylen) the least scummy of the remaining players?

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You didn't explicitly say that Haylen was the least scummy of the remaining 4, but you listed the other 3 remaining players (CSL, Looker, and me) as your hypothetical scumteam. Either you didn't really believe in your scumteam, or you thought Haylen was the least scummy of those 4.

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Looker:

1. Who is that directed at?
2. That makes no sense. (Or, I can't think of a person you could have directed it at such that your comment would make sense.)

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Kmd, do you disagree with my claim that your behavior implies you think Haylen is the least scummy? If so, why do you think your behavior does not imply that? If you think Haylen is the least scummy, why do you think so?

"Least scummy" refers to "least scummy out of Iec, CSL, Looker, and Haylen."

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Kmd, it sounds like you're suspecting me because you suspect Looker and Looker suspects me. Also, your original question to Looker, CSL, and I regarding whether we were scum did not reflect your perspective of the scumteam. Do I have that right?

CSL, you've commented on Kmd's conclusions, but not his logic. Do you also like his logic, or did you arrive at your position from alternate means? For that matter, if you think Kmd is inappropriately assuming you are scum, why are you largely accepting his conclusions?

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I think we should lynch either Looker or CSL on the basis of their scummy behavior at the end of D3. Looker wasn't even voting DJ, and he told CSL to hammer him. Why didn't Looker just hammer him himself? Moreover, why was CSL so quick to take Looker's advice? DJ hadn't been at L-1 for very long. The latter is maybe a little less suspct because of DJ's self-L-1 (this is my first time seeing town do that), but that whole scenario was still very scummy in my eyes. Why has no one mentioned this yet? For all the talk of DJ's "scummy hammer," this definitely trumped it.

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? Why would you drag me into that?

You told CSL to hammer DJ when you weren't even voting CSL. I see no reason for a town player to do this. I think a town player who wanted to lynch DJ would first vote DJ, and then encourage others to vote for him. A scum player might convince someone else to hammer while refraining to vote to avoid responsibility for the hammer.

If there's a reason you didn't vote DJ before telling others to vote him, please explain. I may be missing an obvious explanation.

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Why didn't you just hammer DJ yourself, then? Why encourage someone else to do it, especially if you think they actually shouldn't just yet?

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Looker, are you claiming that you asked CSL to hammer as a joke?

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Room 8 is my room. You can't close it.

On what basis do you think people out-of-doors are vulnerable?

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The doors apparently grant one-night abilities when someone stays in them overnight. I'm pretty sure Kre was in a room N1, and he died, so I doubt they protect from NK (except rooms 1-2).

I've already said that I think we should lynch one of you and CSL for that incredibly sketchy hammer. The only reason I haven't placed a vote yet is that I'm not crazy about Kmd, and he thinks this is a good idea, too. (Addendum to Batt's comment about Kmd's "Haylen must be scum" view -- even discounting that scum may be nervous or we may not be in lylo, Kmd being scum would also explain why the wagon hasn't led to lynch.)

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Mastin's role would make sense. I thought he might be some kind of cop on the basis that he slept in the Library with the door closed N1. On the other hand, I believe Mastin also started D2 by voting Kmd (albeit "jokingly"), so I dunno how that's a tell with regard to Kmd's alignment one way or the other. Assuming that a role's abilities are determined only by sleeping locations, "bunny" players may well be simply that abstracted from their sleeping locations.

/drunkpost

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Kmd has been highly nonspecific throughout this game with regard to the bases of his suspicions. His case on myko was based on a clear joke from RVS. When 2 of his 3 suspects D1 turned up town by D2, he abandoned his third suspect (who was admittedly not present), and singled out DJ among people on the wagon for weak reasons. He correctly asserted that Greg was town, but never clarified why he thought so other than "gut." Today he created a new scumlist with 3 players (CSL, Looker, me), but then turned around and voted Haylen around the time that I asked what separated her from his three suspects. He then removed CSL (the closest thing to a genuinely scummy suspect) from his list. So he's left with Haylen (formerly voted out of the top 3), Looker (for claiming not to have read his PM, probably, since he's not suspecting CSL for the hammer), and me (I'm assuming PoE, even though MSG seems to have slipped through the cracks and CSL beating me out makes little sense).

Vote: Kmd

for lack of consistency with his reads. That, or for negligence to clarify his thought process. If it is demonstrated that this is a case of the latter, I may withdraw my vote.

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It is scummy to go from Haylen being 4th most likely scum to 1st most likely scum without a decent reason. The new (?) reason you've listed ("due to the fact that I was still alive") doesn't make any sense to me, either. Why would that take Haylen from 4th to 1st (and now to town again)?

If you aren't suspecting Looker for claiming not reading the PM and you're not suspecting him for goading (IMO) CSL into hammering, what're you suspecting him for? Just VC? Is there any actual play by Looker you'd care to interpret? Are you sure you're not failing to account for all the inactive players (who naturally will have "better" voting histories)?

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On what basis does scum have such a strong motive to kill you that only inactive scum explains their failure to do so? Your refusal/inability to justify your reads? The inaccuracy of your reads? The fact that you claimed unNKable D3?

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Looker had voted you, so you still being alive means that scum were inactive? And that made Haylen LESS scummy than Looker or me?

You officially make no sense whatsoever and deserve to be lynched.

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Why would you assume that Looker is town to call Haylen scum, then put Looker in your Top 3 and suspect me for my association with Looker? That literally makes no sense. I liked this better when it was all gut.

Does anyone else understand what Kmd is arguing? If so, could you restate it for me?

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Maybe we should discuss this first? But I guess we're in lylo, after all, so it's probably inevitable.

What'd'ya mean by "furwert"? And is that really all the flavor you have? I have quite a bit more:

My role is Rabbit. My flavor indicates that I am somewhat sleazy and have used my father's influence to get out of legal trouble in the past. For example, I crashed my friend's car, but he got me off the hook and paid my bail. Now he's gone and I'm scared and vulnerable.

I think (though I don't know the source material very well) that this flavor may be based loosely on Mitsuki, since I think I remember that her father was important to her. Maybe Looker can clarify this. But I don't have any kind of lover mechanic with anyone, at least not that I know of.

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Ah, I see. My flavor calls me "daddy's little girl." Maybe it's analogous to that.

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MSG, what do you make of Kmd's behavior today?

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Haylen, please claim.

Are Batt and I the only "rabbits"? I wonder what the significance is....

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Ah, OK. My flavor doesn't explicitly indicate that I'm a bunny.

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O_O

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He may know her role but not her alignment.

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It is scummy to go from new-gal being 4th most likely scum to 1st most likely scum without a decent reason.

Forgive my potential idiocy, but, why?[/quote]
If someone changes his perspective for no reason, it means either that either his original perspective was not well-reasoned or that the shift is due to the perceived vulnerability of certain parties. I hope it's obvious why the latter is scummy. The former could potentially be just an error, but I think Kmd would've been more tentative in advancing his position of he was so uncertain of it that it changed so quickly.

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EBWOP: Messed up the quote, but I think you understand.

Also, I should add that Kmd has said that he miscalculated how Looker's alignment could mess up his theory, so he's claimed the former.

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I'd be OK with lynching CSL. Kmd is my first choice, then CSL, then Looker. MSG is fourth, I guess.

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OK.

Unvote; Vote: CSL

. If he's town, gg Kmd.

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Let's not get ahead of ourselves. <_<

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Iecerint enters Corridor, if necessary
Iecerint enters Room 8
Iecerint closes Room 8

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I assume special-education.

I'm curious as to why CSL's evidently hanging in there.

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Everyone except Kre seemed scummy to me. That, and the replacements were crazy. Great job, scum.

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What was the function of the key locations?

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I had lingering suspicions about Tenchi, CSL. Coupled with your comparatively low activity and scummy hammer D3, I was OK with the early lynch.

Not that you had a monopoly on scummy town behavior. Kmd and DJ did some weird stuff. Greg was mostly just in a bad situation.

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I wish Kmd had said he wanted to lynch you for lying. That he took the policy lynch angle felt wrong to me.

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If DJ hadn't been claiming that lurking is pro-town and Kmd hadn't been the leader of lynchLooker, I totally would've been all over it.