/in-Vitational Game 5, Simon Mafia 2: Game Over before 832

[Battousai]

Batt, I am having trouble making sense of that post. At the beginning it seems that you think he's town, and by the end you seem to think he's scum distancing from a townie wagon. Which is it.

Where's TDC?

I'll tell ya if you replace into Crayola Catastrophe


But really, as I was starting the post, I was explaining what could be done, as if Elmo is town, and ended on the fact that Elmo failed to do it and thus is more likely scum. As the last sentence says, Elmo's actions seems scummy and LF more likely town.

[Goatrevolt]

I wasn't arguing Fluff is incompetent, just suggesting the likelihood of making that play is stronger than making the "backdoor" play. I don't see how competence plays a part. I consider myself competent and I would be much more likely in that situation to vote for TDC out of self-preservation than vote elsewhere and hope to convince people off my wagon.

Unreasonable? Not sure. Very odd? Definitely. It suggests that you were not nearly as confident in your read of Fluff as you tried to portray in earlier days. When I'm as confident someone is scum as you made it out to be, I want them lynched despite the way the wagon progresses, and just assume bad votes are probably busing. Rather than this, you backed off at the first sign of an unreasoned vote, despite you begging people to vote him the day before. I don't know exactly what to make of it, but it's bothersome.

I'm trying to undermine it, because we're sitting at deadline and I have no patience for mind games. If it's a pointless move, why shouldn't I be trying to undermine it? You are maintaining subterfuge because you haven't expressed exactly why you are voting DDD and specifically what you hope to learn. You also exposed this by giving a framework of what you expect to learn. It can be both at the same time.

My suggestion for a better way to spend the time is trying to convince us to lynch DDD if you truly think he is scum, not play games with him 2 days out. I was doing exactly that with Fluff until I changed my opinion on him.

Right now, I'm trying to determine where my vote should be and try to nail scum today. If you have a case, present it. I really have no patience for cloak and dagger at this point, and you will excuse me if I don't necessarily buy your explanation that you will "peg all 3 scum" with this play.

[Lord Gurgi]

Why are you so aggressive? This seems new. I don't think an argument for the compulsive play makes sense in a game this slow, so you'd have to argue he made the worse decision.

I'll just put this down as difference of theory, unless you want to argue it, and waste time. I feel that the reasons that people join a wagon are important.

I don't see why you're accusing me of both, simultaneously. It seems preposterous. It seems to me like you're more angry that I explained what I did at the outset. Would you have preferred a two-word post?

I am trying to figure out with greater certainty. I'm willing to wait even one more day. I think people will mobilize if it gets close.

With the number of three man theories running around right now, why do you attack me for trying to figure out my thoughts, and Elmo for not doing so, and leave everyone else alone?

It seems like you're contradicting both sides of every part of my play. I'm not certain enough, then too certain. Too much subterfuge, too open about it. It's tiring, and a cheap tactic.

[petroleumjelly]

Official Day Three Vote Count #7

3 – LlamaFluff (Elmo, TDC, forbiddanlight)
2 – Debonair Danny DiPietro (LlamaFluff, Lord Gurgi)
2 – TDC (SpyreX, Battousai)
1 – SpyreX (Debonair Danny DiPietro)

With

9

alive, it takes

5

to lynch and

3

to lynch at deadline. Deadline is October 10, 9:59 pm CDT.

Not Voting – 1 – Goatrevolt

---

LOCK COUNT

6 – Green (Goatrevolt, Lord Gurgi, forbiddanlight, SpyreX, Debonair Danny DiPietro, LlamaFluff)
0 – Blue
0 – Red
0 – Yellow

Not Locking – 3 – Battousai, Elmo, TDC

With

9

alive, it takes

5

to lock a floor.

At nightfall, the floor to be locked is: GREEN.

[SpyreX]

Huh, when all is said and done it will be interesting to go back and look at today (realtime) and see what effect my not hammering had.

@Goat:

Maybe "apathy" wasn't the right term. See, I like the posts you have NOW. However, I absolutely dislike the timing of it. Since somehow that totally derailed the growing LF wagon.

Further, as a general note, I'm totally floored at the fact we go at a snails pace and then WOOSH when deadline comes. This isn't good nor healthy.

DDD isn't sparking great feelings but that can wait. I'm still not understanding the resistance to TDC (and doubly not understanding "town feelings" some mentioned)

I'll give it more tomorrow. As it sits, TDC or LF. Not down with TDC.

[Elmo]

You don't see how that post reads as you expressing disappointment with the LlamaFluff lynch?

No, I don't, it's what I said it was.

No, this is not an excuse. If you unvote, TDC and Fluff will be tied in votes. If you voted SpyreX he would also be tied in votes. I refuse to accept this as valid.

I thought he was on four, and I don't/didn't expect anyone to show up and care before deadline. Shrug.

You pushed SpyreX on it earlier today, and then brought it up again today. Looking at how many relevant posts you've made today, it's been a fairly prevalent topic for you.

I asked him why he thought you were town. I wanted to know if he had a decent reason. How is asking someone "Why is __ townish" anything to do with trying to remove that idea from their mind?

Gurgi: I don't have any convincing reasons to think Fluff is town.
Battousai: I didn't claim it was inevitable, I said it looked/looks inevitable. I didn't think enough people would shift their viewpoints away from Llama.

[Goatrevolt]

Gurgi, I feel like crap and don't have the desire or patience to go back and forth with you endlessly, but I'm not being inconsistent at all. I've said it 9 times already. Voting someone for undisclosed reasons at deadline is complete bullshit. It's not helpful to anyone. I really could care less what kind of trickery you are trying to pull. I just want to know why you are voting DDD and whether you want him lynched or not.

This isn't ridiculous. This isn't contradictory to anything I've said to Elmo. I'm getting aggressive because I'm frustrated.

@Spyre: I did derail the Fluff wagon. I also argue that I got it going in the first place. Meh. The deadline bit sucks a lot. I know I am personally guilty of it as well, although today I made a conscious effort to try to start pushing wagons long before the deadline (Fluff-wagon). It just turns out that everything happened with it (FL, Elmo, Gurgi) close to deadline anyway. The only way I can see this changing is if members of the town start acting more pro-active (as I have tried today) thus forcing scum to be more pro-active, and we can start deciding things earlier.

What do you think of my reasons for abandoning my vote on Fluff?

[Elmo]

Gurgi, why exactly are you railing on him for voting the other candidate at deadline when I did precisely the same thing with ZazieR day 1?

[Goatrevolt]

Elmo: The nature of asking that question to Spyre suggests that you don't believe that I am town. As a general trend, people don't challenge other players on a stance they also hold. You asking it a second time as a general statement after Spyre gave his answer suggests again that you don't believe it to be true and are worried about the fact that others do. You wouldn't be worried about people thinking I'm town unless you don't think I'm town yourself. If you are worried about people thinking I am town, you would want to dispel that idea. I'm just playing connect-the-dots.

I am generally fairly good at picking up changes in people's stance on me, and I've detected you changing to more of a scum read on me today (why not ask those questions yesterday?). I simply want to know why. What has caused you to change your opinion?

[LlamaFluff]

So... its late and im tired, but a quick push on why we should do a quick little DDD shift to end this day.

The biggest theme of this game has been a slow buildup to a lynch of a lurkerish player due to an apathy bug that just about everyone has. Day one, it was Zazie/Elmo, day two it went to Nuwen with slight talks of others. Most people took stances at least on who was a preferable lynch and why.

DDD though actually completely ignored the end of day wagons. For the day one duel of Zazie/Elmo, the last time that either player was mentioned was back on page 15. At that point in the game, zazie had three votes, and elmo was voteless. The vote appears to of been for baseless pushing of a wagon, and for subsequent lurking. So in the final 10 pages of the day, DDD added absolutely nothing to the lynch, and never even commented on Elmo.

The next day in regards to the Nuwen wagon, it just shows up as "a better then no lynch" option. He specifically calls it not a bad lynch, but shows to real push for it, all well and good if there is a different wagon he wants to persue. The wagon of choice is the Batt one, which is based on... speculation of NKs. So again, he manages to avoid attaching himself to the deadline lynch as much as possible, while failing to provide sufficent reasoning to vote someone else. Most of the conversation went "Batt speculated, that scummy. No its not. Yes it is." So an arguement of opinion which regarding speculation is often set in stone for players.

DDD has done everything possible to avoid coming anywhere near the deadline lynches. This includes discussing a player not even remotely having a chance of being lynched D1, and sitting on a wagon that is going nowhere

[Lord Gurgi]

Elmo, That would be a good question if it wasn't you asking it. This is why I think you're town and he's not. If anyone else had brought that up, I might think more of it, but that you were the first one to vocalise the connection only strengthens my opinion.

Goat, I'm sorry, but how I feel about DDD depends upon what happens. Waiting for results is not mutually exclusive with participation. I feel like I'm doing more right now than most other people, and you hounding me on this is not going to make me drop it, so it's not a productive use of your time. I don't like how you're handling this.

[Elmo]

Goat, I don't believe you're town. I also don't believe you're scum. I have never had a town read on you, and never had a scum read on you. I think you would have done pretty much exactly the same things as either alignment. I just want people to actually look at your play and think about it, rather than you being a "blind spot". If SpyreX had been able to give me what I considered a decent reason, including "gut", to think you were town, I'd have been fine with it.

I actually thought his response was kind of scummy, fwiw.

[SpyreX]

...?

I'm pretty sure I said that GR's early play, especially involving setup mechanics, rang very town to me?

[Elmo]

Elmo, That would be a good question if it wasn't you asking it. This is why I think you're town and he's not. If anyone else had brought that up, I might think more of it, but that you were the first one to vocalise the connection only strengthens my opinion.

Sorry, what? I don't see how that answers the question at all. You were strongly against him, just now, for doing something that I did on Day 1. And I'm pretty sure you were defending me on very general meta grounds if that, and definitely didn't have any kind of read on me then. So why wasn't it scummy when I did it?

[SpyreX]

Also considering this bizarre flurry of activity and the weird pushes and pulls with the wagons I'm starting to get the itch that BOTH TDC and LF are scum.

[Elmo]

Yeah. I don't think that's a decent reason at all. It actually worried me slightly more, since mechanics stuff is an way to "look town" without doing stuff that actually necessarily helps the town. It's entirely possible that his plan will never benefit us at all. I don't particularly believe that's true, but it's certainly possible, and that's pretty much being overlooked, as far as I can see.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

It's funny how LF's arguments are completely based around things from the first two days and he's waited until hours before this deadline before bringing them up.

First he suggests that I added nothing new to the Zazie wagon at the end of D1. HELLO, he disappeared, there was nothing that could be added to the points that I had already made. Then on D2 he faults me for trying to find a different lynch instead of basically the same lame lurker lynch we had on D1 which ended up having the same result. Apparently the pro-town thing would've been to completely sit on the sidelines and not vote at all or lamely jump on a bandwagon I no longer really cared for. Give me a break. You want me to take a stance on a deadline lynch, you got yourself a deal buster.

Unvote; Vote: LlamaFluff

[SpyreX]

Elmo you are truly an enigma.

Lets say you don't believe my reasons for thinking he's town.
Lets say even FURTHER that you think that makes me at minimum, if not both of us, scum.

Why now?

If you're going to push my lynch, then there's no room for pussyfooting around. Its too close to deadline for it. So, in essence, its white noise and I don't like that.

On the flipside I actually LIKE 916. It takes some oomph to come out and power-smash like that. I approve.

[Lord Gurgi]

Elmo: Can you link me to the post where you did this? The only one I can find is roughly a week before deadline, and you weren't even a real candidate at that point. I assume I'm just not looking properly. Because if that is the one, then it's rather massively different, just because of how close the deadline is.

[Elmo]

Well, let's get it over with. unvote, vote ZazieR for not being me. Bed, now.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 70#1835570

[Elmo]

SpyreX, #2 isn't right, I don't think it makes you scum. And I didn't say I outright didn't believe you, I just think it's a bit (slightly?) more likely that you'd have better reasons as town. I didn't put much faith in it, so I dropped it.

[Elmo]

The only one I can find is roughly a week before deadline, and you weren't even a real candidate at that point. I assume I'm just not looking properly. Because if that is the one, then it's rather massively different, just because of how close the deadline is.

Obviously I at least felt (and feel) I was a real candidate, otherwise I wouldn't have voted. And it is not at all different. It makes it slightly

worse

that I did it before deadline if anything, because Fluff's hand is essentially forced, whereas I could have happily held off but didn't. Either way, it's very very much self-preservation in your terms. You have a double standard, here.

[Lord Gurgi]

ZazieR wasn't a non-candidate. The point is that LF went for a non-candidate, not TDC. TDC did what you did, and I didn't get on him, SpyreX did.

[TDC]

I'm really starting to think I'm hallucinating all this crap now.

I had forgotten that Gurgi had been pushing for a Fluff lynch back in the days and had interpreted his question as him being suspicious of the wagon only cropping up when I was about to be lynched. Which is why I placed him into the camp of people that I expected to vote me.

As such I never considered this:

Gurgi is expressing surprise at the Llama wagon and hasn't yet jumped on board? Well, shucks. Call me surprised. Seems a bit odd, no, considering his earlier stances where he kept wondering why nobody was voting Llama?

I mean, makes sense and all, but Gurgi's post really read to me like what he now says it was supposed to say.

Anyway, then comes fl and votes Fluff out of left field placing Fluff firmly in the lead and he.. votes DDD? Speaks out against me being quicklynched tomorrow?
It's not just that he isn't trying to save himself. He was actually suspicious of me for the whole fucking game and when we are the two competing wagons he starts a new one? It boggles the mind.

Then pointless discussion between GR and Elmo. I agree with Elmo, I haven't seen anything that makes me think GR must be town. What's wrong with pointing that out?

And then, of all people, it's GR who disassembles the Fluff wagon. With the reasoning that Gurgi isn't joining it (wasn't that the reason to think they were BOTH scum just a few posts ago?) and that Elmo has a bad feeling about it but isn't doing anything against it (isn't that exactly what Gurgi has been doing to give GR the idea of them being scum together?).

Then Batt (who's otherwise just sitting there) has this brilliant tip for Elmo:

It's not inevitable. You can always switch to TDC and lynch scum.

As if Elmo had shown any recent interest in lynching me.

Where's TDC?

I was gone for 30 fucking hours. fl doesn't do a thing for a whole week and nobody cares and I'm supposed to stand up at four in the morning or what.

I'm not seeing the DDD "case" and I'm really not liking how it came out of nothing with two days to deadline.
Can't fault SpyreX for his conclusion that this is because Fluff and I are both scum.
I personally think it's, because those that are trying to derail the Fluff wagon can't convincingly sell voting me.
GR certainly couldn't. Not sure about Gurgi, think if he wanted to, he could do it and not take too much flak.
So yeah, Fluff-scum would look bad for GR, as far as I'm concerned.

[LlamaFluff]

It's not just that he isn't trying to save himself. He was actually suspicious of me for the whole fucking game and when we are the two competing wagons he starts a new one? It boggles the mind.

Its the best play for the town I think, just not the best play to keep me alive. The fact of the matter is very simple, if one of us gets lynched and flips town, the other will be lucky to not get lynched the next day. I am not confident enough in you flipping scum to base the game on it in a scenario where there is not a competing wagon that is not my own, which is what is happening.

It comes from a mix of reads on others, the big turn around from LG, and a lot of nagging suspicions.

All in all it makes sense for me to be lynched, I am a townie, I am not on green, I have connections to a lot of people. There will still be quite a few players off limits for the kill and unable to kill, another should be added to the mix tonight rendering at least half of the game unkillable, if not more, it just makes sense at this point for this to happen, and may be the best shot town has.