Newbie 841 - Game over!

[havingfitz]

So, um... is DeathNote going to be replaced?? @_@; I fear I won't have very much to add until then. T_T; Why is it all the people I think are scummy vanish/go off to mod another game?

By the way... I'd like to mention that I don't really like PBPAs... >_<;
It feels like targets are being painted on our backs for NKs! Usually, I think it's sufficient to post your top suspects! ^_^

What is a PBPA? I assume it is a comprehensive explanation of suspicions like PE and RF provided. Either way...what does it stand for? I agree that it is something that could be used by mafia in a NK but it can also be used by town to find scum. When RayFrost provided his I took it with a grain of salt at that moment but when he ended up being town...it gave his opinions more validity and value IMO. Even though it was still just based on opinion...it was at least based on a bonifide town opinion and not one from scum trying to mislead town (which I am not insinuating PE's post is trying to do).

[Tororingu-chan]

PBPA stands for "Player by player analysis".... it's basically where you post your thoughts on every single player on the game! ^_^ It's good to express your suspicions, but I don't feel that there is much value in saying who you

don't

think is likely to be town.

Nor do I feel that knowing that he was indeed town adds any more value to his opinion... this is a game of deception, and people can easily be mistaken! ^_^

[Tororingu-chan]

EBWOP: I meant "who you don't think is likely to be scum"

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

almightybob replaces DeathNote.

Official Vote Count

Pablo Molinero - 1 (havingfitz)

almightybob - 1 (Tororingu-chan)

Not Voting - 5 (Albert B. Rampage, almightybob, Pablo Molinero, PaltryExcuse, ronnieroo)

4 to Lynch.

Deadline

is the end of Tuesday, October 27.

[havingfitz]

Nor do I feel that knowing that he was indeed town adds any more value to his opinion... this is a game of deception, and people can easily be mistaken! ^_^

Sure...people can be mistaken. But at least reviewing an analysis from someone who was town...you know (or should assume) that the analysis is an honest opinion which may point out things another townie may have not noticed. Whereas if RayFrost had turned out to be mafia I would be more inclined to not believe his anaylsis....though it would perhaps provide insight into who the other mafia were....which would be an understandable reason for mafia to not be interested in providing such an analysis.

[almightybob]

Hey everyone! Rereading at the moment, my thoughts will be with you all soon

[Tororingu-chan]

I never said that providing opinions is a bad thing, but I still don't think pointing out your "top townies" is a good thing... T_T;;

It doesn't help town in the least!

[almightybob]

On page 5 just now, looks like you guys were struggling to maintain activity.

It seems like OMG has disappeared on us. Great. Did I mention that I dislike playing against replacements?

Me too, which is why I can promise you guys right now that I'm here till I'm dead or victorious


And by the way, if anyone has any specific questions for me, fire away and I'll get to them soon.

[Tororingu-chan]

Nothing in particular at the moment, just get up-to-date and post your thoughts! ^_^

[ronnieroo]

Fitz: That's not my case on Pablo, ROFL.

Ack... I hate replacements. >_<

I apologize, but I have a ton of homework to do (I slacked off all weekend) posts 200 on will come tomorrow. Sorry people.

[ronnieroo]

And by fitz I mean PaltyExcuse... Yeah...

[almightybob]

K, all caught up.

It seems the main points in the case against DeathNote were
1) the apparent contradiction in voting for OMGL when he didn't think he was scum/was an easy target
2) his follow-the-herd voting pattern.

I can't claim to know what DN was thinking/planning when he did this, but I can try to interpret his actions now, and hopefully my future play will make up for his.

Anyway, back to the points:

1) I think you're misinterpreting what he meant here. Granted, he could have explained himself more clearly, but when he says "lacked the ability to defend himself" I think he means that OMGL lacks the skill to defend himself properly. As you all noted earlier (one of the main reasons the wagon went to lynch), OMGL's defence was appalling. He called

himself

scummy. I think this lack of knowledge of how to defend himself is what DN is referring to, not the fact that he then went AWOL.

2) Looking at the two incidents that T-Chan highlighted:
- the first is page 1, post 18, and you had 3 votes on you. DN's was hardly serious, but I think he just (correctly) realised that 3 votes on the same person before page 2 is a little high. Especially during RVS. I don't think there's anything to defend against here, I would have done the same.
- the second is just as RayFrost enters the thread. DN unvotes saying, essentially, that OMGL was too nooby to defend himself. RayFrost then makes it very clear that he doesn't accept the newbie card as a defence for scummy play. So DN says

In that case...

Vote: RayFrost

Let him respond before someone hammers...

He takes his vote off because he felt that perhaps OMGL was just noobish. Then RayFrost

himself

tells him that noobishness isn't an acceptable cover for scummy play. So if you can't accept that OMGL's scummy defence was because he's new, he must be... scummy.



Anyway yeah, that's my take on the concerns raised about DN. Any questions, hit me.

[Pablo Molinero]

Oh crap. Uh...

EBWOP: Ronnieroo started her case on Pablo while I am writing. More to post on her later.

Sorry Ronnie!

Yeah, I don't know what you're looking at, cuz that wasn't a case against me.

Monday is my hell-day (all 5 classes + HW) so I'll try and show up later this week, but I make no promises for the weekend (21st B-day and all).

[almightybob]

Happy 21st! Spoiler: it's just like any other one.

Although I just thought that you might be American, in which case you can finally legally drink. Enjoy!

[ronnieroo]

Pablo, I'm guessing that PE didn't read the post before posting his EBWOP, but just assumed that it was a case against you.

[Tororingu-chan]

Hi, thanks for replying, almightybob! ^_^ Here are my concerns about your most recent post~

Ahh, I've reread my post and I see I've been pretty ambiguous. I meant to say exactly what you just said... thanks for clarifying! Let me try one more time~!

[RayFrost] was simply the best option since he lacked the ability to defend himself.

What I intended to say (I was frightfully unclear... sorry!! >_<;;) is that DeathNote seems to think that OMGLyncher merely lacks the ability, or skill to defend himself, but he isn't scummy, as you pointed out. Another post after that seems to reflect that attitude:

What? I was defending [RayFrost] to give them a chance to respond so they wouldn't get lynched right off for what appeared to be a nooby mistake.

Here, he remarks that OMGLyncher was making "nooby mistakes", not that he was scum! @_@;

In fact, he says outright that OMGLyncher didn't do anything that was really scummy:

...OMG didn't give us anything to go off of for serious votes.

I personally don't think RayFrost's play was really an issue, and neither did DeathNote, seeing as he completely failed to point out anything that was scummy about him. I lynched him based on his predecessor's actions alone... but DeathNote didn't think OMGLyncher was scummy!!

The point I'm trying to make is:

DeathNote did not find anything scummy about OMGLyncher/RayFrost, but despite that, voted and lynched him.

And that's pretty scummy... isn't it?? >_<;;

If there are any questions or if I've gotten anything wrong, please feel free to correct me~~

[almightybob]

Hm. I see your point, and from those quotes you're right, it is strange. If I saw only those, I would agree with you that it's pretty scummy.

All I can really do is provide some counter-quotes that show that DN

did

think OMGL/RayFrost was scum. Here are a few I found:

@OMGLyncher- Lets see...
Contradiction of posts- check
Active Lurking- check
Admitted to being a good choice for lynch atm- check

At the moment, I only have one suspect...

Lyncher as indicated in my previous post.

(Bob's note: I think he's referring to post 97 here, specifically the part I've quoted above)

Ray's LoS never do anything for him.

I would like you to claim as well although I am expecting VT, whether you are town or scum. I think your LoS is fine as some of my suspicions match yours (excluding how you put yourself on town).

Here the implication is clearly that he disagrees with Ray's evaluation of himself as Town - i.e. DN believes Ray is scum.

Because Ray was replacing in for someone who seemed noob scum.

It should be noted, this post came immediately before the second one you quoted, so in fact he did say that OMGL was both nooby and scummy.



So in conclusion, I would respectfully disagree with your assertion that DeathNote didn't find anything scummy about OMGL. He calls him his "one suspect", implicitly states he thinks OMGL was scum in post 194, then explicitly states it in 208.

The first quote, I think we've covered enough. It was a commentary on OMGL's inability (skill-wise) to defend himself. No extra townishness or scumminess is implied by DN with this statement.
Your second quote, when taken in context with his post immediately before it (post 208), no longer reflects a "nooby not scummy" attitude, but a "nooby and scummy" attitude.
The third quote, I can't really explain I'm afraid, as I don't know what DN was thinking or what he meant by this phrase.

Hopefully I have shown though that he did have suspicions about OMGL. He had them for a long time (had OMGL as his "only suspect" on page 5) and he maintained those suspicions right up until the lynch.

[Tororingu-chan]

Hi, thanks for the quick reply! ^_^ I wish everyone were as pleasant as you are!

I don't disagree with your analysis of the first and second quotes, I'm glad we could come to an agreement there~!! ^u^

However, it's the third and last quote that worries me the most, and is the only one you cannot explain. Here it is again, because it's such a great line~! ^_^

post 174

...OMG didn't give us anything to go off of for serious votes.

This statement effectively means that any prior suspicions he had on OMGLyncher (all pre-174 posts) were not "serious", and can probably be disregarded for the sake of the argument. I also feel that there's reason to believe that his suspicions post-174 were falsified -- note that every time he mentions something about RayFrost/OMGLyncher being scum, it's always a vague assertion with no explanation.... =_=;

Even if you did take him at his word that he

did

think OMGLyncher/RayFrost was suspect, that leaves us with a bizarre situation: he went from believing that there was nothing "serious" about the wagon on OMGLyncher to voting and waiting for the hammer in 2 posts!! O_O;;

In these two posts between his vote and unvote, there is a post by PaltryExcuse (post 175)that's only a rehash of existing arguments, and a statement by RayFrost himself (post 176) that he does not approve of the use of the newbie excuse.

What do you think in these two posts changed his mind so quickly and entirely?? >_<;; I don't know, but I can't see anything~~~

[almightybob]

This statement effectively means that any prior suspicions he had on OMGLyncher (all pre-174 posts) were not "serious", and can probably be disregarded for the sake of the argument.

Ehh it's a bit of a stretch to say that all his suspicions were irrelevant. He's documented as saying several times that he thinks OMGL is scummy. What about when he names him his "one suspect"? That seems pretty serious to me.

I also feel that there's reason to believe that his suspicions post-174 were falsified -- note that every time he mentions something about RayFrost/OMGLyncher being scum, it's always a vague assertion with no explanation

Well yes, because he states his reasons for finding OMGL scummy back in post 97. You can't expect him to repeat it over and over every time he mentions his read on the OMGL/Ray slot. That would make very tedious reading, for one thing.

What do you think in these two posts changed his mind so quickly and entirely??

As I said in post 311, my take on the unvote-vote is this:
- DN feels that Ray might be lynched because of a noobish mistake from OMGL, and while he (DN) thinks it is a newb-scum mistake, he acknowledges that it may be newb-Town.
- He unvotes to allow Ray some breathing room to construct his argument, probably expecting an explanation of the noob-mistake
- Ray says that he finds noobishness an unacceptable defence of scumminess.
- If noobishness is not a sufficient defence of scumminess, then OMGL's play is scummy, so DN puts his vote back on.



I would also like the rest of the Town's reactions to my explanations/countercase please. More questions/feedback/outraged finger-pointing/whatever are welcomed.

[PaltryExcuse]

Firstly, hello almightybob!

Pablo, I'm guessing that PE didn't read the post before posting his EBWOP, but just assumed that it was a case against you.

Ya, that's pretty much it exactly. I had a couple hours during my V/LA and I thought I'd do a PBPA. I went out soon after and didn't really read the post (just saw there was one). I just assumed that Ronnie'd post on Pablo like she said she was going to. But she changed her mind. My bad. Upon actually reading the post, it actually looks more DN-centric rather than anyone else.

@Ronnie: Who is your focus on at this point? You said you had a case on Pablo, but your summary post's focus is DN. Who do you believe is scum and why?

On Bob's defense:
So far, pretty sound on the points put forth. The posts seem to indicate he believes it to be so, and then quickly changes his mind. Basically, the way things have been written, DN seems positive at times of OMG's scummy-ness and sees it as newbie behaviour in others. One question really: Bob, in your opinion, when is DN convinced of OMG being scum enough to keep his vote on him until the lynch?

[almightybob]

Hello there!

Basically, the way things have been written, DN seems positive at times of OMG's scummy-ness and sees it as newbie behaviour in others.

See, this is the false dichotomy that I think T-Chan has been pushing (with or without realising it) on DN's actions: that he thought OMGL's play was either scummy

OR

nooby.
It ignores the possibility that he thought it was scummy

AND

nooby - and this discarded option is the one that proves to be the case, as evidenced when DN says:

Because Ray was replacing in for someone who seemed noob scum.

So I don't think it's that he was jumping between calling it scummy and calling it a noobish mistake - he thought it was a noobscum mistake.

One question really: Bob, in your opinion, when is DN convinced of OMG being scum enough to keep his vote on him until the lynch?

I would say that he had OMGL pegged as scum from pretty early on, and he stuck with it all through D1. The only votes he placed (other than in RVS) were against OMGL/Ray. He said as early as Page 5 that OMGL was his only suspect, and he didn't really pursue any other lines of enquiry. In fact, he was probably tunnelling a little.

It's hard to pin an exact time where DN decided he wanted OMGL for the lynch. He had his vote on him for almost all of D1. It may initially have been a pressure vote, which developed into a real one.
I would say that, by the time Ray replaced in, DN was almost definitely happy with an OMGL lynch, because after Ray removed the noobishness defence issue, DN happily put his vote straight back on and put Ray at L-1.

[almightybob]

EBWOP: My mistake, apparently people were confused and DN only put Ray at L-2. Imagine a 2 at the end of that last sentence in 320.

[havingfitz]

I have been reading over each individual's posts the last few days and I don't feel like I am getting anywhere. I thought TC made some good observations on DN but when I looked closer I think I came to some of the same conclusions Bob has used in DN's defense. I'm not convinced DN is mafia. Also...I'm having a hard time pinning down suspicions on TC, Roo, and PE. I'm still maintaining my suspicions towards Pablo but I think I'm starting to get a scummy feel from ABR. ABR came in right off the bat with attacks towards RayFrost (who at the time was the scum leader for several people...including me). He threw a quick vote out on Roo...even though he seemed focused on RF/OMG. He then urged everyone to vote...trying to get votes on Roo...get people to vote it up. Urged RF to claim (which I do not understand the value of as who would believe a claim from someone they suspected was scum?) several times and then voted him regardless. Since RF has been gone ABR has been basically taking a back seat and making worthless posts (to stay involved?) and letting us know he is v/LA but will get things going once he returns. So at the moment he is right up there with PM for me.

[Pablo Molinero]

Agreed on ABR. He has claimed away, but still has been nonexistant so much in this game. Thoughts instantly go to scum lurking/lacking a foothold.

[PaltryExcuse]

ABR hasn't said much in Day 2, true, but he has said to be V/LA for most of it so far. Now his sig. says Emergency V/LA. On the flipside, he has posted much more in Newbie 842 than this one, recently.