Mafia 33: Checkmate - Game over!

[Yaw]

Well, I hadn't counted the roles yet. By my count we have:

2 White Pawns, 1 Black Pawns
2 White Knights, 2 Black Knights
1 White Bishops, 1 Black Bishop
1 Black Rook
1 White King
1 Black Queen

Which isn't a lot of pawns, that's true. I still don't think people are going to suddenly claim special roles -- in three specific cases (Rook, King, Queen) that would be equivalent to a colour claim, and hence effectively suicidal, in two others (the Bishops) it would be admitting to scumminess. The colour issue just makes it disadvantageous to claim, because it sabotages the chances at achieving half of the stated goals of this game.

[BabyJesus]

Well, I hadn't counted the roles yet. By my count we have:

2 White Pawns, 1 Black Pawns
2 White Knights, 2 Black Knights
1 White Bishops, 1 Black Bishop
1 Black Rook
1 White King
1 Black Queen

Which isn't a lot of pawns, that's true. I still don't think people are going to suddenly claim special roles -- in three specific cases (Rook, King, Queen) that would be equivalent to a colour claim, and hence effectively suicidal, in two others (the Bishops) it would be admitting to scumminess. The colour issue just makes it disadvantageous to claim, because it sabotages the chances at achieving half of the stated goals of this game.

well, we're equal in color....so both sides will be at a similar disadvantage. And we'll have our scum really pinned down.

[warpdragon]

Well, I hadn't counted the roles yet. By my count we have:

2 White Pawns, 1 Black Pawns
2 White Knights, 2 Black Knights
1 White Bishops, 1 Black Bishop
1 Black Rook
1 White King
1 Black Queen

Which isn't a lot of pawns, that's true. I still don't think people are going to suddenly claim special roles -- in three specific cases (Rook, King, Queen) that would be equivalent to a colour claim, and hence effectively suicidal, in two others (the Bishops) it would be admitting to scumminess. The colour issue just makes it disadvantageous to claim, because it sabotages the chances at achieving half of the stated goals of this game.

well, we're equal in color....so both sides will be at a similar disadvantage. And we'll have our scum really pinned down.

How are the colors equal?

[BabyJesus]

Well, I hadn't counted the roles yet. By my count we have:

2 White Pawns, 1 Black Pawns
2 White Knights, 2 Black Knights
1 White Bishops, 1 Black Bishop
1 Black Rook
1 White King
1 Black Queen

Which isn't a lot of pawns, that's true. I still don't think people are going to suddenly claim special roles -- in three specific cases (Rook, King, Queen) that would be equivalent to a colour claim, and hence effectively suicidal, in two others (the Bishops) it would be admitting to scumminess. The colour issue just makes it disadvantageous to claim, because it sabotages the chances at achieving half of the stated goals of this game.

well, we're equal in color....so both sides will be at a similar disadvantage. And we'll have our scum really pinned down.

How are the colors equal?

6 and 6.....

[Crola]

What if everone claims "White Pawn"?

[BabyJesus]

What if everone claims "White Pawn"?

then obviously the non-mafia are not on board with the plan.... whatever, just an idea.

[warpdragon]

Well, I hadn't counted the roles yet. By my count we have:

2 White Pawns, 1 Black Pawns
2 White Knights, 2 Black Knights
1 White Bishops, 1 Black Bishop
1 Black Rook
1 White King
1 Black Queen

Which isn't a lot of pawns, that's true. I still don't think people are going to suddenly claim special roles -- in three specific cases (Rook, King, Queen) that would be equivalent to a colour claim, and hence effectively suicidal, in two others (the Bishops) it would be admitting to scumminess. The colour issue just makes it disadvantageous to claim, because it sabotages the chances at achieving half of the stated goals of this game.

well, we're equal in color....so both sides will be at a similar disadvantage. And we'll have our scum really pinned down.

How are the colors equal?

6 and 6.....

Oh, I see. I was just looking at the collumns becasue thats how they were at the top. I was thinking that it would be like this:

2 White Pawns |1 Black Pawns
2 White Knights |2 Black Knights
1 White Bishops |1 Black Bishop
-------------------|1 Black Rook
1 White King----|---------------
------------------|1 Black Queen

[big_kahunia]

Vote Count

4 Crola – (BabyJesus, Yaw, Dranko20, PookyTheMagicalBear)
1 warpdragon – (Crola)
1 Dranko20 – (rolandofthewhite)

Not voting (6):

Fuldu, Lt. Origen, Pie_is_good, Save the Dragons, StevieT92, warpdragon

With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch.

[Pie_is_good]

A claim would give us 1/4 confirmed innocents (The king would pretty much have to claim "white pawn").

...The king, though, being a color cop, would have alot more information. The queen would also be safe, as the king can save her.

I, personally, am for it. I really think the town needs to start taking risks if we want to win this.

[Yaw]

Except that the king and queen are on opposite sides, and so

want

the other one dead.

[warpdragon]

Regardless of the color, both want the mafia dead.

[Lt. Origen]

Actually, that's kinda a bad deal for the king's side. After all, if the queen's side can pick off the other at a faster rate, then they'll have quite the advantage.

[Fuldu]

A claim would give us 1/4 confirmed innocents (The king would pretty much have to claim "white pawn").

...The king, though, being a color cop, would have alot more information. The queen would also be safe, as the king can save her.

I, personally, am for it. I really think the town needs to start taking risks if we want to win this.

Some problems with this argument:

If, as suggested, the king claims white pawn, we'd have 1/6 confirmed innocents, not 1/4, with the two confirmed both being black.

It isn't clear how doc protections work in this game, but the queen would be by no means certain to be safe. We've had 3-5 kills every night. In many games, doc protection only prevents 1 kill.

Why does the color cop have so much more information? If we claim, who's going to lie about their color? With the split even, it's to everyone's advantage to tell the truth about that. The king isn't going to catch anyone out that way unless a member of the white mafia tried to claim black queen.

...

That was my first thought. Except that, if you look back at what I have in the first paragraph above, it becomes to the advantage of all the non-confirmable black players (bishop, knights, and pawn) to consider lying about their color. If everyone tells the truth about their color, we have six uncertain white players, of whom we think three are scum, and four uncertain black players, of whom we think three are scum. Given those odds, my vote would go to one of the uncertain black players (barring a noteworthy queen result). And given that, those four players (including the pawn) all have an incentive to lie about their color.

Two options for claiming, then: We claim as suggested and insist that the real black pawn tell the truth. This puts the black scum in a bind. If they all claim white, then that's another confirmed innocent. If more than one person claims black pawn, we lynch one of them and either find scum or find the pawn, in which case we know all other claimed black pawns are scum.

Or, we just have the queen claim, give all results, have the unclaimed king protect her and hope for the best. If the queen is going to claim either way, it isn't obvious how much is really gained by doing the rest of it. If her claim is going to be disputed, then we can put the two of them to the test and if it isn't, then we can work off her results before we decide whether to go on with the rest of it. Yaw obviously suspects BJ is the queen. I've been burned by BJ's aggressive behavior before, so I'm warier, but if a BJ queen claim goes unchallenged, then I'll happily lynch Crola without having to worry about any of the rest of it.

Both of these, as I've pointed out, put the queen at risk, the second probably even more so. The second doesn't put the rook at risk, and with many scum and few power roles left, a roleblocker is a good person to have around. The second also doesn't put as much of the color issue into play. Neither of these options is without risks, but pie's point that it's late enough in the game that risks may be necessary is an important one.

[BabyJesus]

well, fuldu, I'm not the queen, so you're safe there....

[Crola]

well, fuldu, I'm not the queen, so you're safe there....

Assuming this is true, then your vote on me is either crap, random, or both. Basically 4 people are on a bandwagon without knowing who the victim is.

BJ, the only thing you could be is a color cop, and if you investigated me, that wouldn't really tell you much.

[Pie_is_good]

FoS: Crola. Speculation about king = bad.

Fuldu-- Maybe we should have the queen

and

the black pawn claim? The roleblocker would be safe, and we'd have two confirmed innocents (maybe more, pending the Queen's results).

[StevieT92]

I think claiming is a good idea, as we have a 6-6 split, and have a good chance of catching scum.

[BabyJesus]

well, fuldu, I'm not the queen, so you're safe there....

Assuming this is true, then your vote on me is either crap, random, or both. Basically 4 people are on a bandwagon without knowing who the victim is.

BJ, the only thing you could be is a color cop, and if you investigated me, that wouldn't really tell you much.

You are two from a lynch scum, care to claim??

[Fuldu]

Actually, the more I think about it, the more I'm inclined to

just

have the black pawn claim. That puts the black mafia in a bind before they even know who the queen is. They either grant us the confirmed innocent by not counter-claiming, or they give us a pool from which all but one person is scum to draw lynches out of. If two or three players claim black pawn, then I'm quite comfortable not having the queen claim at all and simply trying to decide which of the pawn claims to lynch on the basis of past behavior.

If we were to go ahead with this, I'd recommend a variation on a standard mass-claim procedure. One person starts, but instead of claiming they simply say "black pawn" or "not black pawn." Then they pick who goes next. That helps to prevent scum from getting to make their decision at the very end of the list.

[Pie_is_good]

Sounds good, Fuldu.

I am not the black pawn.

Crola goes next

[Crola]

sorry for the dely, I'm not the black pawn

[Fuldu]

Crola, pick someone to go next.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

*huge yawn comes out of Pooky*

[Save The Dragons]

I am really bad at paying attention to these deep, involved, strategic things.

Just letting you know that I'm still alive.

Also, I will be gone from THU 16 to TUE 21.

[Lt. Origen]

Oddly enough, I'll be away during the same days as STD. No, we're not eloping.