Mini 862 ~ Mafia of Order (Game Over!)

[Locke Lamora]

I'm not going to be around until Monday so this will be my last post before deadline. I believe Cobalt's claim at this stage and I think DDD's playing differently to when I've played with him as scum before; I think he contributed a lot more as scum. I certainly don't consider there to be enough to go on for a lynch at this stage. I don't like Saberwolf's vote on DDD at all; he doesn't even give any reasons other than 'he's the only one left'. I'm getting enough pro-town vibes off VP lately compared to what I've seen of him in the past to go for Saber over him.

Unvote; Vote: Saberwolf

[Locke Lamora]

Mod: will be V/LA until Monday.

[Juls]

@Cobalt: Why are you posting so much? You have twice as many (if not more) posts than anyone else. It almost seems like you want an excuse NOT to test your claim. I am having a lot of trouble with you because if it weren't for your nameclaim I would completely be voting for you 1) excessive posting -not protown, 2) claiming to act scummy on purpose - not protown, 3) trying to string up everyone that is not named Cobalt - not protown. It's perplexing to say the least. I want a serious answer to my initial question.

ASCN/Saber seem to be wasting posts as well...(see acsn iso 3, 4, 6 and saber iso 0, 2). I'm not seeing a lot of protown here but I am also not seeing a whole lot of scumminess going on.

[snip]the weak unvote of Cobalt while leaving it open to jump back on the wagon if nothing else takes. I am not latching on to anyone else's reasoning, that is my own. Also you are misrepping my Vipod meta. Bad Juls.

That is more of a "it feels the same way as Vipod" type vibe. I am more concerned with your willingness to do what ever Cobalt does. Examples: jumping on the fence sitting arugment, joining Cobalt with a vote on VP. I am sensing some strong buddying here. I don't think you both are scum or there would not be so much of a lovefest going on.

@VP...no posts on Wednesday from me does not warrant a prod. I leave the house at 8a.m. and don't get home until 9p.m. Occassionally I have 2-3 min. between classes I can run to the lab and post but not often. So, no worries...I'm here.

@KMD...I don't like your post 185 yet again...it feels like you are protecting DDD...partners?

I need to see more from LL, fuzzy, DTMaster. I really don't like the choices that have been presented. If I have to go with any of them it's gonna be DDD or saberwolf just because I can't vote for Cobalt right now, and I am not getting scum vibes from VP. Information is important so I don't want to NL. I will vote after I see a vote count cause I don't know where votes stand right now.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

DDD: I'm very curious why VP went from Scum not playing like the Obv-town you know to highly probable town. What caused this swap?

I didn't/wouldn't expect scum-VPB to scum out swinging at me as much as he did which concerned me. And then my trend analysis (which I didn't feel comfortbale running till page 7) showed him as highly probable town with ACSN/Saber showing as far more probable scum.

[Vi]

Loyalty isn't just a personal trait. Most of it hinges on who's calling the shots. What kind of commander you're under. My first commander was only concerned with lining his own pockets. And next was the Mad King himself. Man, I don't ever want to go back to regular military duty. If Shiharam hadn't asked me, I wouldn't have stayed so long. But he showed me what a leader could be: someone who makes following seem like the most natural thing in the world.

Vote Count:

saberwolf (L-3) ~ Goatrevolt, DTMaster, Debonair Danny DiPietro, Locke Lamora

Cobalt (L-4) ~ SensFan, Kmd4390, fuzzylightning
Debonair Danny DiPietro (L-4) ~ VP Baltar, saberwolf, Sotty7
VP Baltar (L-6) ~

Debonair Danny DiPietro, Locke Lamora, Sotty7,

Cobalt
Sotty7 (L-6) ~ Juls

SensFan (L-7) ~

saberwolf

--With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
--Deadline is Saturday, October 17 2009.

(Only got 2 days left)

Post Count:

saberwolf - 14
Cobalt - 33
Debonair Danny DiPietro - 9
DTMaster - 7
fuzzylightning - 7
Goatrevolt - 18
Juls - 8
Kmd4390 - 21
Locke Lamora - 5
SensFan - 21
Sotty7 - 7
VP Baltar - 16

[saberwolf]

Every person that is on my BW.

Without refering to ACSN at all, please tell me why I am scummy, as well as scummier than the rest of the people here.

[Goatrevolt]

DDD: I'm very curious why VP went from Scum not playing like the Obv-town you know to highly probable town. What caused this swap?

I didn't/wouldn't expect scum-VPB to scum out swinging at me as much as he did which concerned me. And then my trend analysis (which I didn't feel comfortbale running till page 7) showed him as highly probable town with ACSN/Saber showing as far more probable scum.

Trend Analysis? I haven't seen you do anything of the sort. You've merely labeled some people as scummy and others as town with no rationale. If that is a trend analysis, then I am pretty good at doing them myself.

Why does your trend analysis show people as town and others as scum? Why weren't you comfortable "running" it until page 7? Why wouldn't VP-scum swing at you as much as he has done?

Every person that is on my BW.

Without refering to ACSN at all, please tell me why I am scummy, as well as scummier than the rest of the people here.

Without refering to ACSN? Umm... you don't get a clean slate as a replacement. Whatever alignment ACSN was, you are as well, so if my read on ACSN is scum, that carries over to you.

"Without reading any of my posts that could be construed as scummy, please tell me why I'm scummy." That's basically the equivalent of what you're suggesting.

Anyway,

Unvote, Vote DDD

I'm not really liking his play recently, especially the fairly reasonless swap on Baltar and the "trend analysis" which I would love to see backed up.

The ACSN wagon is less appealing to me right now, with how DDD and Locke jumped aboard and how KMD seems loath to wagon DDD, despite DDD being one of his "gut call 3 scum".

KMD: Fantasy Mafia, day 1. You jumped on Shadow Knight, who had only 1 vote on him at the time with 9 hours before deadline. I hardly believe that you truly buy this "We don't have enough time to wagon elsewhere" argument you are spouting off here.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

DDD: I'm very curious why VP went from Scum not playing like the Obv-town you know to highly probable town. What caused this swap?

I didn't/wouldn't expect scum-VPB to scum out swinging at me as much as he did which concerned me. And then my trend analysis (which I didn't feel comfortbale running till page 7) showed him as highly probable town with ACSN/Saber showing as far more probable scum.

Trend Analysis? I haven't seen you do anything of the sort. You've merely labeled some people as scummy and others as town with no rationale. If that is a trend analysis, then I am pretty good at doing them myself.

Why does your trend analysis show people as town and others as scum? Why weren't you comfortable "running" it until page 7? Why wouldn't VP-scum swing at you as much as he has done?

Just because I don't post every minor detail doesn't mean it's not done. There are certain behavioral trends that correlate highly with scum and town. I use an exact statistical formula for newbie games where I originally developed the concept, but I apply the general ideas to mini games as well. Essentially I'm looking for outliers who are more likely to be town than scum and I'm looking for certain incongruous behaviors among the non-outliers who are more likely to be scum. I don't run the analysis until page 7 because it takes time for certain pattern to emerge so you're not just grabbing a single snapshot of where a certain player was V/LA or some other aberration.

I'm not going to get more detailed then that because doing so is like explaining why you have a meta read on someone, it loses its effectiveness thereafter.

Well it's certainly not the behavior I would take as scum and I generally think VPB and I think along the same lines. I wouldn't have considered myself a big threat as someone without a lot of posts who wasn't pushing hard and was already getting grief from other players. Hence there's not as much scum need to try and build a wagon when he could've dismissed or ignored and continued to attack Cobalt and/or ACSN/Saber.

[Cobalt]

unvote: vote saberwolf

[Goatrevolt]

Well it's certainly not the behavior I would take as scum and I generally think VPB and I think along the same lines. I wouldn't have considered myself a big threat as someone without a lot of posts who wasn't pushing hard and was already getting grief from other players. Hence there's not as much scum need to try and build a wagon when he could've dismissed or ignored and continued to attack Cobalt and/or ACSN/Saber.

You're voting ACSN/Saber, presumably based on your opinion that he's scum. I don't understand why VP moving away from Saberwolf to you makes him more likely town. If Saber is scum, then VP as scum would benefit from building a competing wagon instead of letting his scum buddy roast. The idea that VP as scum could have just sat on Saber also revolves around the idea that Saber is town, but yet you think Saber is scum. How does this make sense?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Well it's certainly not the behavior I would take as scum and I generally think VPB and I think along the same lines. I wouldn't have considered myself a big threat as someone without a lot of posts who wasn't pushing hard and was already getting grief from other players. Hence there's not as much scum need to try and build a wagon when he could've dismissed or ignored and continued to attack Cobalt and/or ACSN/Saber.

You're voting ACSN/Saber, presumably based on your opinion that he's scum. I don't understand why VP moving away from Saberwolf to you makes him more likely town. If Saber is scum, then VP as scum would benefit from building a competing wagon instead of letting his scum buddy roast. The idea that VP as scum could have just sat on Saber also revolves around the idea that Saber is town, but yet you think Saber is scum. How does this make sense?

No it would've made more sense to once again come back to the Cobalt wagon he was on earlier in the day anyways, unless of course you're implying that the scum team is VPB/Cobalt/ACSN which would be simultaneously hilarious and awesome and stupidly unlikely.

[Goatrevolt]

No it would've made more sense to once again come back to the Cobalt wagon he was on earlier in the day anyways, unless of course you're implying that the scum team is VPB/Cobalt/ACSN which would be simultaneously hilarious and awesome and stupidly unlikely.

After he called Cobalt a VI? How would he justify his spot back on that wagon?

I don't think Cobalt/VP/ACSN are the scum team. I also don't think your radical swap on VP from scum to town is genuine.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

No it would've made more sense to once again come back to the Cobalt wagon he was on earlier in the day anyways, unless of course you're implying that the scum team is VPB/Cobalt/ACSN which would be simultaneously hilarious and awesome and stupidly unlikely.

1) After he called Cobalt a VI? How would he justify his spot back on that wagon?

2) I don't think Cobalt/VP/ACSN are the scum team. 3) I also don't think your radical swap on VP from scum to town is genuine.

1) Seriously? You're going to suggest that a competent player like VPB couldn't find his way back onto a major wagon because of a one-liner where he called a player a VI.

2) Hey, me neither, glad we agree.

3) I keep trying to write a response to this point, but none of those responses seem genuine either which is ironing and makes them not terribly useful.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

*Which is ironic.

[SensFan]

Unvote, Vote: saber

[Sotty7]

That is more of a "it feels the same way as Vipod" type vibe. I am more concerned with your willingness to do what ever Cobalt does. Examples: jumping on the fence sitting arugment, joining Cobalt with a vote on VP. I am sensing some strong buddying here. I don't think you both are scum or there would not be so much of a lovefest going on.

You are stretching this. Lovefest? Seriously? I agreed with him on two things and expressed unease how he got the scum win con. I am about to agree with you on a couple of points, does that mean we are having a lovefest now?

Also nice backtrack on the Vipod thing after VP agreed with me.

@KMD...I don't like your post 185 yet again...it feels like you are protecting DDD...partners?

Agree.

@Cobalt: Why are you posting so much? You have twice as many (if not more) posts than anyone else. It almost seems like you want an excuse NOT to test your claim.

Agree.

*Cue Sotty Juls lovefest*

I will say that Triple D has used the term “trend analysis” in another game I am playing with him in. Still not sure just what to think of it though.

[VP Baltar]

I don't like LL's "Imma vote saber, see ya tomorrow y'all!"

@VP...no posts on Wednesday from me does not warrant a prod. I leave the house at 8a.m. and don't get home until 9p.m. Occassionally I have 2-3 min. between classes I can run to the lab and post but not often. So, no worries...I'm here.

I just get ants in the pants at deadline. I know you're busy and it wasn't meant to say you're inactive or anything like that. Sorry.

@KMD...I don't like your post 185 yet again...it feels like you are protecting DDD...partners?

I agree. The opposition to the DDD wagon for no logical explanation irks me big time. You should vote him ASAP, Juls, cause the scum are rushing toward this saberwolf lynch in short order.

Kmd, I got your number two suspect to be one of the leading wagons despite your protest. Time to put up or shut up. Let's see that vote.

Goatrevolt is obv. town.

Cobalt, please answer my previous question you conveniently ignored about what pro-town actions you see from DDD since you say he is more town than LL. You said he has been scumhunting, please direct me to parts of his play you think are scumhunting.

Sens, I think you should be voting DDD as well. When he flips scum, it should significantly help your Cobalt case.

DTMaster and fuzzy need to post ASAP. Preferably putting DDD at L-1 so we can get a claim by this afternoon.

[Juls]

Unvote, Vote: DDD

[fuzzylightning]

DDD started out the day with nothing and now he comes out with this "trend analysis" which seems like a vague way to go about scumhunting, but maybe it works for him, however, I am leery of the fact that it is based off of something he came up with in newbie games. The more experienced players are going to more often play better than newbies and this trend analysis could be just like meta in that it can be fairly useless with players who have experience. You haven't really contributed much to the day other than going at VPB and now Saber. However, I don't really see all that much scumminess coming from DDD right now, and I will not vote just to get a claim out of him. Personally, I like my vote where it is right now, or I could go with a Saber lynch because upon a re-read, I don't really think that slot has done much of anything, and he just jumped on a bandwagon out of process of elimination and didn't really give anything as to why he was voting for DDD other than, he is the only person left.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@KMD...I don't like your post 185 yet again...it feels like you are protecting DDD...partners?

I agree. The opposition to the DDD wagon for no logical explanation irks me big time. You should vote him ASAP, Juls, cause the scum are rushing toward this saberwolf lynch in short order.

The fact that you're driving my wagon with no logical explanation irks me big time. Also the fact that you're trying to entice Sens by stacking my lynch with his prefered future lynch is just incredibly low. If you know your case sucks and you can't secure my lynch without essentially bribing another player just say so. You're already off the hook today and we'll lynch saber who we both know is a proven VI and likely scum.

I am leery of the fact that it is based off of something he came up with in newbie games. The more experienced players are going to more often play better than newbies and this trend analysis could be just like meta in that it can be fairly useless with players who have experience.

Well I agree that if expereienced players knew exactly what I look for they could scheme against that to confuse me, hence why I've been vague with the exact behaviors I look for. That being said it's worked pretty well in the limited cases I've been able to use it so far.

[Cobalt]

Cobalt, please answer my previous question you conveniently ignored about what pro-town actions you see from DDD since you say he is more town than LL. You said he has been scumhunting, please direct me to parts of his play you think are scumhunting.

I wouldn't be voting for you if I didn't think you were the best lynch right now. Besides my discomfort with your early vote, unvote pattern you simply aren't reading pro-town to me. You say I'm always scum when we play, I saw you're always town and always obvtown at that, the fact that you aren't this game says scum to me.

Not an issue that feels smart to raise, but odd how KMD has gone from I'm scum with gut/meta/connection reasons behind it to saying he won't be voting for me today. I mean I guess from his perspective it makes sense to test the make believe connection between myself and Cobalt, but it certaintly doesn't mesh well with his earlier confidence.

What are your reasons for voting for me again other than the dreadedly nonsensical "he didn't ask questions" and maybe a shallow OMGUS?

I did fail to do my usual trend analysis, but we just hit the point where I could yesterday. Sotty, Fuzzylightning, Sens, Juls, and ACSN/Saber all register as highly probable as scum. Logic would suggest that only one of Sotty and Juls is scum though the way they've gone after each other early. You also register as highly probable town along with Cobalt and DTMaster. The numbers don't lie, or at least I hope they don't.

Well it's certainly not the behavior I would take as scum and I generally think VPB and I think along the same lines. I wouldn't have considered myself a big threat as someone without a lot of posts who wasn't pushing hard and was already getting grief from other players. Hence there's not as much scum need to try and build a wagon when he could've dismissed or ignored and continued to attack Cobalt and/or ACSN/Saber.

etc

[DTMaster]

@Town

I be back now. I was V/LA. Vi and sabre can confirm this. (I think saber can :S) So here are my thoughts:

@Juls

151: Yes like I said in my responce: You don't show how I'm "just agreeing" and going with the flow. In your 132 you say this but I just pointed out how I'm taking definate sides here. Plus I'm also attempting to structure a way to test Colbalt's claim to see if we can determine if he is town/scum. I don't see how the latter makes me passive "where I'm just being active."

Post Number Analysis Please.

@KMD
138: i was addressing Juls. Why did you just answer for Juls?

@DDD
149: Ah sorry I read that you didn't like the role claim idea which made me assume you were on the Cobalt lynch wagon. I did a quick reread and confirmed your statement.

To me scum-post giver makes little sense if we role confirm Cobalt. If it does turn out to be true, voting analysis will be done on Cobalt to determine is alignment.

204: You do realize you are applying a formula derived from newbie games to a normal games. Just as a warning: 3rd party variables and more advanced mafia concepts make trend analysis tougher.

@Cobalt
154: That was such a bad post. I have to agree with Sens for this: It's to WIFOMic and acts like a threat to the town. If you are flipped don't mention threats like this. It discredits your case on the bangwagoners from this post alone.

Personally I'd rather take the time to role confirm you and work from there.

@Sabre
Yoooh! You are clearing up my main issue on ACSN with his lack of posts/idiotic posts. But you still carry some of the issues your predecessor created over you,

IGMEOY: Sabrewolf

. Replacement halos shouldn't be auto clearing.

@KMD/DDD about Sabre
Wut? Content < ACSN 1 liners? Explain.

@Fuzzy
Hold on: PRs are independent of alignment? That means its all back to old fashioned scum hunting "shudders at the thought of scum-docs and cops running around or even... scum watcher" Internal Mafia that I played in explains why.

Also my Cobalt plan is in the water now ":<.

@Town
Preferably I rather get a vote count to better assess the situation. I can't remember but I've seen a game where scum lead town to mislynches and almost won at the end of the game using a point system scale (of scumineess from 1 - 10). Can't remember the game name but this is ringing some bells.

[DTMaster]

Addition:

@Sens
Can you metalink that HP game? Intrested in your theory with Fuzzy's Yune's msg.

@DDD
Just noticed. Cleared VP because he didn't go for an easy bandwagon on ACSN/Sabre. But wouldn't that mean you are attacking the easy bandwagon?

Trend analysis or not I don't see much from ACSN/Sabre from ISO. The only votes Sabre had was Sens and you. :S

[saberwolf]

I don't want ACSN's actions completely ignored, it's just that since I replaced, a couple other people have called me scummy and hopped on my BW. I would like to know what makes ME scummy, to justify why they went on my BW, otherwise I feel a little suspicious about the last couple of people to join my BW.

[Sotty7]

@Mod: When exactly will the deadline hit on Saturday?