Mini 848 - Second String Muppets Mafia - Game Over.

[ekiM]

Hey Snix, why didn't you answer my question in 708 right away?

What is the flavor justification for Janice being a roleblocker? When you say you're "the town prostitute" are you saying it says that in your role PM?

Why did you want a name claim yesterday?

Why did you feel the need to continue the lie today?

That's also why I was so interested in why a lot of people thought there were 3 scum total. It was an unknown number and people acted like they knew it as a fact.

2 scum out of 12 with town power roles is not remotely balanced, and if there were 4 scum the game would already be over. I'm finding it difficult to believe you really couldn't reason that out.

I again would like to reiterate why I believe Elvis is scum: I see no point to scum pulling a gambit like this, to not NK and hope to push a misslynch with a higher number of town votes necessary. It would have been much easier to push a misslynch if there was 1 less town.

We NLed because we decided that allowing scum to NK would favor town. Why do you find it so hard to believe then that scum would decline to oblige us?

[ekiM]

I am not Hilda, I used that as a name because it was 100% confirmed (by mod) unused in the game (I.E. no one could counter claim truthfully).

The reason I did this is because my real name is Janice from Electric Mayhem. (and the town prostitute apparently) The rest of Electric Mayhem is scum (trying to change the show to all music). There are 3 of them: Dr. Teeth, Floyd Pepper and Zoot.

I know that they are scum and they know that I know. So I'm a prime target for Night Killing if they knew it was me.

Now if I understand Snix correctly, He is a bit of a snitch, because he knows the role names of his targets, but not which players have that name.
Now, I don't know if scum would have gotten a hint about Snix's role or not, but possibly. That would explain why Snix would need a valid fake claim name.
Now, Snix's role is a bit of a flavor cop, so long as he can get another member of Electric Mayhem to say their flavor name. That also explains why he would try to instigate an undercover mass claim like that.

This all doesn't make sense to me. If scum didn't get safe fake claims and know that their real names were unsafe to claim then that's bastard modding. If they did get safe fake claims then what would be the point of giving Snix their real names?

[Snix]

TBH, I'm actually not totally clear on the ecto plan of not lynching snix or me. I mean, I apreciate not dying and all, but I'm not clear on why that is the only strategy. I fail at planning strategy though.

The whole point of it is that neither of us are 100% confirmed scum or town and so long as we lynch right today the night actions would give scum away or there would be no night kill. This would bring it down to a 50/50 chance of finding scum.

This of course is assuming ecto is not scum. If ecto is scum this is a great play to make.

[MonkeyMan576]

Snix' claim seems to be a bit convoluted to me, and he lied about his role originally, so I feel comfortable lynching him at this point.

[Snix]

Hey Snix, why didn't you answer my question in 708 right away?

What is the flavor justification for Janice being a roleblocker? When you say you're "the town prostitute" are you saying it says that in your role PM?

Yes

Why did you want a name claim yesterday?

I was hoping for scum to slip up and either push for my lynch like crazy after the suggestion (knowing that I was fishing for their real names) or to just say their real names.

Why did you feel the need to continue the lie today?

Still one scum out their and I wasn't in immediate danger, the name ploy didn't work and gave me little to no information for town so it would have been useless to say anything about it till absolutely needed.

That's also why I was so interested in why a lot of people thought there were 3 scum total. It was an unknown number and people acted like they knew it as a fact.

2 scum out of 12 with town power roles is not remotely balanced, and if there were 4 scum the game would already be over. I'm finding it difficult to believe you really couldn't reason that out.

I didn't need to reason it out, I knew from the start

I again would like to reiterate why I believe Elvis is scum: I see no point to scum pulling a gambit like this, to not NK and hope to push a misslynch with a higher number of town votes necessary. It would have been much easier to push a misslynch if there was 1 less town.

We NLed because we decided that allowing scum to NK would favor town. Why do you find it so hard to believe then that scum would decline to oblige us?

It's just not what I would do if scum, especially if monkey was town. Wait for him to hotheadedly jump on another townie and quick lynch.

Bold is mine.

[Ectomancer]

Hmm. So Monkey didn't bite on a reason to believe Snix is telling the truth.

Ok. So Snix, can you explain how you got 2 pro-town power roles? You can roleblock. That's one. You also know the flavor names of every scumbag in game, so if they claimed, you would know which players are scum. Makes you a type of Cop. That's two roles now, all wrapped up into 1 player and we already have 4 dead town power roles.

[MonkeyMan576]

I find it very hard to believe that a pro-town role would know how many scum they are. That is a traditional scum trait.

[Ectomancer]

I find it very hard to believe that a pro-town role would know how many scum they are. That is a traditional scum trait.

I bet I've reckoned correctly how many scum are in a game by time it was half over in at least 95% of my games as town.


Kiku, I'm not trying to rag on you, just thinking you would have retained that since it happened recently and involved your statements and those were the responses to them.

[MonkeyMan576]

I find it very hard to believe that a pro-town role would know how many scum they are. That is a traditional scum trait.

I bet I've reckoned correctly how many scum are in a game by time it was half over in at least 95% of my games as town.


Kiku, I'm not trying to rag on you, just thinking you would have retained that since it happened recently and involved your statements and those were the responses to them.

Yeah, but he is saying it was in his role pm, which I find hard to believe in a townie.

[Ectomancer]

Time for me to mull things over.

Here's one thing I'm operating under as a given. Let me here your opinions on it.

Snix and Elvis are not scum partners. If they are not, then saving them to deal with until tomorrow will not cause us to lose the game today.

Hmm. I wrote earlier that it would work out great for us if both town. But. If it works out even, 1 scum and 1 town, then saving them actually makes it

harder

for me to choose scum today. I have a 2 of 5 chance (40%) just randomly picking between the 5 of you. If I take out 1 scum and 1 town, then I only have a 1 in 3 chance (33%) of nailing the remaining scum (that's void of any evidence, which we do have, but Im just doing raw numbers)

So. Conversely, if we do have 1 scum and 1 town in the Snix/Elvis pair, then raw numbers say we have a 50% chance of hitting scum. That my friends is

only

if we know scum is in there, which isn't a given at all, and we lose automatically if both are town.

And I think I've convinced myself that I can't game the situation to our advantage like I wanted. You lynch scum. That's the bottom line. I already know who I think those 2 players are, but I was surprised when I tossed one a lifeline with reasoning (or at least more reasoning than Monkey ever needs) and the other didn't grab hold and help me pull.

[Ectomancer]

I find it very hard to believe that a pro-town role would know how many scum they are. That is a traditional scum trait.

I bet I've reckoned correctly how many scum are in a game by time it was half over in at least 95% of my games as town.


Kiku, I'm not trying to rag on you, just thinking you would have retained that since it happened recently and involved your statements and those were the responses to them.

Yeah, but he is saying it was in his role pm, which I find hard to believe in a townie.

Ok. Which is why I'm now saying he is claiming a double role. Roleblocker and flavor cop.


Snix, make another try at convincing me.

[elvis_knits]

I still don't understand why snix would need to lie and say he was Hilda.

[Snix]

Snix, make another try at convincing me.

I honestly don't know how. We were all part of the band, they wanted to change and I did not so apparently I broke off and went into hiding.

I've told you everything I know.

My only fear right now ecto is that you are scum. Because so far the town has been following your lead.

[Ectomancer]

Yes, I'm a leader, not so much a follower.

Snix, the problem is that you are telling 2 stories. The flavor would hold in either one of them singly, but combined it is very unbelievable. You know who scum is, so you went into hiding. If you find out which player has their names, you can reveal them as scum and get them lynched. Is that right?
But wait, you're a prostitute and can target individuals to roleblock also? Not very hidey if you get my drift. The reason they are roleblocked is that they presumably are being prostitutinated.
And that is 2 roles in one.

You're going to have to tie that together.

[Ectomancer]

I still don't understand why snix would need to lie and say he was Hilda.

If telling the truth, it makes sense in conjunction with his Electric Mayhem story.

If lying, its because he couldn't explain Hilda as a roleblocker, came up with the better claim and story, but got caught up in the better story and didnt realize it messed up his earlier roleblocker claim.

[Snix]

Yes, I'm a leader, not so much a follower.

Snix, the problem is that you are telling 2 stories. The flavor would hold in either one of them singly, but combined it is very unbelievable. You know who scum is, so you went into hiding. If you find out which player has their names, you can reveal them as scum and get them lynched. Is that right?
But wait, you're a prostitute and can target individuals to roleblock also? Not very hidey if you get my drift. The reason they are roleblocked is that they presumably are being prostitutinated.
And that is 2 roles in one.

You're going to have to tie that together.

Yeah, it doesn't sync up well. I'm just relaying what I was told. Apparently I've been known to change partners during the show. That seems to be the reasoning for being a prostitute.

I've given you all I've gotten.

[Ectomancer]

Alrighty, here's what you need to do Snix, please. Come as close to quoting your mod PM as you possibly can without getting modkilled. If there are 10 sentences, I want 10 paraphrased sentences somehow.

[Ectomancer]

I still don't understand why snix would need to lie and say he was Hilda.

If telling the truth, it makes sense in conjunction with his Electric Mayhem story.

If lying, its because he couldn't explain Hilda as a roleblocker, came up with the better claim and story, but got caught up in the better story and didnt realize it messed up his earlier roleblocker claim.

Hmm I see. He really is Janice. Zorblag gave safe claims to all members of the band. Zorblag really did give him the name Hilda too. He just didn't think about flavor when he gave his fake roleblock claim to cover being out at night redirecting or bus driving or whatever role he has in case of a tracker or something. Or maybe he is actually Janice the prostitute (scum roleblocker) to counter the watcher/cop/vig. Either way, when we matched up Janice to the dead Floyd Pepper as the scum group that wants to change the format of the show, he had to have a good reason he wasn't associated with the group and came up with the "I'm hiding because I know their names" story. I also don't think he was trying to induce a mass claim (which is pretty funny because of the flak he got doing it). I think he was simply consumed with the thought of needing to put distance between himself and the revealed name of the dead scum.

Ok, now that's a good story. I'm happy with it. That fake claim really was nagging me. I didn't even pay attention to the fact that ML was Floyd and Floyd was in Electric Mayhem and that I should keep an eye out for other members of the group. Golden rule is lynch scum.

vote Snix

[Ectomancer]

If I die tonight, right now I think that Elvis and Monkey are cleared town.

[Snix]

If I die tonight, right now I think that Elvis and Monkey are cleared town.

Yeah, and when I die today it's game over.

I don't get your previous post, you quote yourself seeming to take that as some sort of revelation. What did you suddenly see that made it so clear to you that I was scum? A few hours earlier you wanted me to pretty much quote my role PM. What made you change your mind? Was it the wait, because sorry I have a job. You were with me until then, you of all the town believed me. What happened? What suddenly changed our mind?

[ekiM]

Snix's claim doesn't add up on several levels.

I still don't believe the flavor. A prostitute. On The Muppet Show. What the heck?

We've seen a town cop, watcher, and vig. A roleblocker on top of that seems excessive, even if both remaining scum have power roles.

This business of knowing the scum's real names makes no sense. It's either bastardly (scum don't know about it and get screwed randomly) or pointless (scum do know and fake claim). It doesn't tie in with the roleblocking stuff.

He's protesting too much when he says he doesn't believe scum would No Kill. He voted for No Lynch yesterday, so he should understand that scum night killing could help town. I think he's faking obtuseness.

It makes more sense that he used his fake name claim yesterday then came up with this claiming roleblocker schtick at night, not thinking through the flavor implications. He's tried and failed to salvage that by claiming his real identity (as part of the mafia!), but it still doesn't fit together with his claimed role.

Vote: Snix

[Ectomancer]

If I die tonight, right now I think that Elvis and Monkey are cleared town.

Yeah, and when I die today it's game over.

I don't get your previous post, you quote yourself seeming to take that as some sort of revelation. What did you suddenly see that made it so clear to you that I was scum? A few hours earlier you wanted me to pretty much quote my role PM. What made you change your mind? Was it the wait, because sorry I have a job. You were with me until then, you of all the town believed me. What happened? What suddenly changed our mind?

It's called an epiphany. Two things, one is that the first time I missed the fact that you were really claiming 2 roles. I'd like to say that I was trying to tempt Monkey on purpose into jumping on to that reason to defend you, but I wasn't. As I kept re-reading and analyzing and trying to work out your claim, I realized you had actually claimed 2 roles, meaning you're very likely scum (and I was wrong). That was the point that I noticed that Monkey didn't jump on to that defense of you, something that I figured a scum buddy would have done in that situation.
The 2nd lingering issue was that I wanted your paraphrase to try to tie up the one loose end in my head, which was why you fake claimed. I didn't understand that. I don't like not being able to explain everything, as it could be the reason for a wrong decision.
But I didn't need it. I was going over voting records, trying to analyze, and also going over your statements, as well as who died when, etc. What happened to make you do that when you did? It was kind of out of the blue. That's when re-reading you provided me the answer. Electric Mayhem and the band members. ML turned up as one. I didn't catch that flavor as significant, and after you named the band I hadn't expected anyone to have claimed to be them anyhow. But then I saw the correlation between your claim, ML's death, and your mysterious job at fake claiming your name. The events all lined up with every one of your actions linked up to a scummy motivations.
No more loose ends. Nice try though, if you hadn't made that first fake claim then your 2nd would have had me on your side because the 2nd was great. I think you got too concerned with explaining being out at night and basically shot yourself in the foot by accident. Your better bet would have been to invent some story about the seamstress getting people trapped in her ball of yarn or something, rather than trying to reconstruct your fake claim in its entirety.

[kikuchiyo]

I still don't believe the flavor. A prostitute. On The Muppet Show. What the heck?

I am fine with the Snix lynch. I have argued for it previously. However, I am not sold on Ekim scum. So not sure where that leaves us.

Vote: Snix

[kikuchiyo]

Ebwop: I think Ekim already hammered. Oh well.

[Zorblag]

Hilda you say? She's clearly not a prostitute, she's a seamstress, right? So someone must be lying. Sounds like a reason to lynch!

Vote Count 4.3

The numbers by the voters indicate the order in which the vote was cast. If two or more players are tied for the most votes to lynch at the deadline the tiebreaker will be the player who has the earliest active vote.


Snix: 4: MonkeyMan576 (7), Ectomancer (9), ekiM (10), kikuchiyo (11)
elvis_knits: 1: Snix (2)

Not Voting: elvis_knits

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Snix, Janice, Town Prostitute

was lynched day four.

Deadline for night actions is 12 PM EDT/9 AM PDT on Tuesday, October 20th 2009.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh