Mini 197- Points Mafia; Game over!

[Yggdrasil]

vote: CoolBot

[Yggdrasil]

As a general rule, I don't assume a second killer unless there are two kills in a night or some other good reason to believe so. The hatchet part to me is just flavor.

[Yggdrasil]

I'm wondering whether it would be useful for MeMe to reveal what level of disability she chose (+1, +2, or +3). While it would help us gauge how severe the disabilities will be, it would also help the mafia do the same. Since both sides want points, it's just a matter of who would benefit more from the extra points, mafia or town.

[Yggdrasil]

Why vote you instead of FOS? Because it's day one, and votes are cheap:

unvote: CoolBot, vote: Nai

[Yggdrasil]

Translation:

AJ(X/Y/Z) [ask?] REASON FOR FOS COUNT. SHOULD TO UNFOS.

So, any speculation as to why there is a FOS count. Are the FOSes somehow relevant to the game?

[Yggdrasil]

I have my reasons for voting you, Nai. I thought your reaction to Thesp's vote seemed scummy, so I wanted to test your reaction to additional pressure.

[Yggdrasil]

To reiterate, I voted for you on the basis of your reaction to Thesps vote.

[Yggdrasil]

vote: mlaker

How do you expect the game to move foward if you just play the waiting game?

A review of your posts doesn't show you doing much more than mlaker. Were you been playing the waiting game as well?

[Yggdrasil]

NO
ONE
MENTIONED
YOU

WHY
THE
EXCUSE

[Yggdrasil]

I think you're still misunderstanding what the points actually do. They don't give you a one-time ability. They give you an ability that you can use every night. Unless you are planning on trying to get additional points, you are wasting your points by not taking an ability.

I'm not sure what I want to do with my vote becaue there hasn't been a vote count in a while and I'm too lazy to figure out the vote count myself.

MOD:

can we have a vote count?

[Yggdrasil]

I would switch to mlaker, but I want to make sure I'm not putting him too close to a lynch.

[Yggdrasil]

Mlaker- 2 (Phoebus, Stewie, Coolbot, Meme)

MOD

: Is this right?

Thesp, right now my interpretation of mlaker's claim is that he's scum claiming to have a lot of points to discourage the town from killing him. However, he didn't think think through the points sittuation very well and now has to make up a reason to say why he has so many unspent points.

I like speedyKQ's idea as well.

[Yggdrasil]

Right now, I'm most suspicious of TradaPIB because of his adamance that mlaker was town throughout the later part of day 1, especially the twilight post as many have pointed out. In addition, he also admitted to "playing the waiting game" when not called on. Since no one has put a vote on him yet,

vote: TradaPIB

Would also like to point out Phoebus's and Stewie's lack of contributions. Although they did contribute to the discussion of the existence of an SK, they did not do a lot to help find scum (though Phoebus contributed some useful obserations). Phoebus's vote on mlaker seems scummy because of the way he did it; he essentially proxy voted through MeMe, which allowed him to remove all responsibility for the vote from him.

[Yggdrasil]

If we do have an SK, I find it somewhat odd that his/her kill did not show up until now. However, I would also hesitate to attribute Nai's death to a vigilante since that's a very risky kill for a vig to make; had Nai not been mafia, the mafia would have won (assuming three mafia). For once, I will say that the flavor of the kill also strongly indicates a serial killer.

As for the mass claim, I might wait to see whether we can figure out who the remaining mafia and SK are without a mass claim. If that fails, we can fall back on a mass claim to identify our scum. If we can lynch scum without telling the mafia who they need to kill, we will be in a much better position tomorrow.

I'll post on who I think is supicious later, when I have more time to analyze.

[Yggdrasil]

Here are some thoughts on the players so far:

Stewie - high on my list of probable mafia. Nai defended him in post # 10, he didn't add anything into the discussion about Nai being scummy (other than a "me too" to put him on the side that saw Nai's actions as scummy, and when given the chance by Phoebus' proxy vote, he immediately jumped on mlaker's counterbandwaggon, which eventually got mlaker lynched and spared Nai.

Phoebus - I'd tentatively agree with Thesp on this. He started the mlaker bandwaggon, in a very scummy way to boot (see my earlier post on this -- essentially he made a proxy vote through MeMe, which would allow him to get rid of the responsibility of making that vote if necessary).

Thesp - I'm tempted to say he's town because he's been trying hard to lynch Nai all game, but I'm still suspicious of him. Maybe I'm just paranoid from Locus's Space Transport Mafia and imagining similarities between his actions in the two games. One thing that strikes me as odd is that he never put a vote on Nai on day 2, even though he was pushing to lynch Nai at the beginning of the day.

MeMe - I'd entertain thoughts of her being scum, but it's hard to tell right now.

CoolBot - hasn't done anything scummy yet, but he hasn't really been doing much of anything.

[Yggdrasil]

I claimed responsibility for my vote as far as ygg is concerned and I still dunno what he means by proxy through MeMe...

What I meant by proxy is that you were placing a vote on mlaker for MeMe since she couldn't vote for both Nai and mlaker. I called it a proxy vote because when you switched your vote to mlaker, you offered no additional arguments against mlaker and I interpreted your "I'll raise a toast to MeMe" as saying "I'll place the vote on mlaker for you, MeMe." Regardless of whether you claim responsibility for the vote now, it still left you the option of escaping responsibility for mlaker's bandwaggon by claiming MeMe was the one who started it.

[Yggdrasil]

The part about 11 points sounds a little weird to me. That has to mean Phoebus started out with 11 points, since if he had less, he wouldn't have taken a disability to put him at 11 points.

Also, MeMe and/or Thesp aren't necessarily mafia. Had scum jumped onto Phoebus waggon to lynch him, they would have not won automatically as a vig/SK could have easily killed off the scum at night, and we would have little trouble identifying the last scum tomorrow.

[Yggdrasil]

At this point, I trust Thesp enough to let him not claim anything. That way, the mafia have less info to work off of when they plan their night kill tomorrow. Of course, if Phoebus turns out to be innocent, Thesp better have a good explanation tomorrow.

[Yggdrasil]

I agree with CoolBot's request for a mass claim, as we are nearing the end, and we need to know what tools we have available to us. As for who the mafia and SK are, I need to reread some more, but I'd lean most toward CoolBot if I had to decide on a lynch right now. He looks most like mafia since he has defended both Nai and Phoebus. Not sure who is the SK yet.

[Yggdrasil]

I should also let you guys note that I will be on vacation from Aug 1 to Aug 14. I'd hate to leave you guys at this point in the game, but hopefully we can get this thing wrapped up before then.

[Yggdrasil]

I counted these two posts as defending Phoebus:

Someone noted newness:

Guys...this is typical newbie behaviour...you don't need to lynch her for it.

He lies.

You know how?

I'm fine with CoolBot starting as well.

[Yggdrasil]

My interpretation of them is that they helped defend Phoebus, though admittedly it's hard to tell given your restriction.

[Yggdrasil]

My interpretation of them is that they helped defend Phoebus, though admittedly it's hard to tell given your restriction.

[Yggdrasil]

My interpretation of them is that they helped defend Phoebus, though admittedly it's hard to tell given your restriction.

[Yggdrasil]

Here's some more helpful quotations

I want MeMe to claim next
I want Ygg to claim next
I want Stewie to claim next
You guys decide who to claim next

[Yggdrasil]

Posting in case CoolBot wants to say something else.

[Yggdrasil]

Well, it all depends on whether we think he's lying about having the nightwatch ability. If he claims targets first, we can check if he's lying. If he claims targets last, we can check whether others are lying about their ability.

Right now, I think nightwatch is an ability that the scum and SK would want to buy (to determine power roles), so I don't think he would be scum lying about having the nightwatch role. In my opinion, he's either pro-town or scum/SK with the nightwatch role. So, I'll let him hold off on the claim. To be fair, MeMe and Stewie should have the option of holding back results if they feel that the town would benefit from revealing them later.

[Yggdrasil]

I agree that scum can easily get out of a lie if we hold off on CoolBot's claim, but that's the point. If CoolBot waits to reveal his results, the scum/SK don't know whether they were targeted or not, so they will give a truthful answer. However, if CoolBot reveals now, the scum/SK will know whether he/she can get away with a lie.

[Yggdrasil]

I began with three points, got one for pointing out mod error #2 in the OP. Later I got two more points for pointing out mod errors. I was waiting to see whether Phoebus was doc or not and if Phoebus was mafia, I was going to buy backup doc last night, but I didn't have time as night was very short. Turns out that it was a blessing in disguise as I later realized that if we had a mafia and SK remaining, we would need a vig to ensure victory, so I bought one-shot vig today. I have one point left.

To state the obvious, Stewie should claim next.

[Yggdrasil]

MeMe, why'd you protect Stewie instead of Thesp?

[Yggdrasil]

1) We still need CoolBot to answer whether or not MeMe went out night 1.
For quotation (so CB can say something else in his post):
MeMe went out night 3
MeMe did not go out night 3

2) Stewie didn't answer MeMe's question. Why did you want CB to claim first?

3) I think the most likely explanation of Thesp's knowledge that Phoebus was lying is that he was nightwatchman. This meshes well with Stewie's claim that blocking Phoebus night 3 did not stop the mafia's kill from going through. However, if you believe that Thesp was an ability cop, I think I could be a reasonably confirmed innocent. If he had investigated me, he would have gotten Townie as my role, which signals to him that I am clearly pro-town. This could be one explanation as to why he kept saying that I'm unlikely to be mafia. However, I don't think he's ability cop because I don't think doctor would show up as being different whether the person is mafia or town.

4) I think there is a SK and we need to lynch the mafia/SK and vig the other tonight to ensure a town victory. If we kill only one, we're left with one pro-town and one anti-town tomorrow.

[Yggdrasil]

4) I think there is a SK and we need to lynch the mafia/SK and vig the other tonight to ensure a town victory. If we kill only one, we're left with one pro-town and one anti-town tomorrow.

On second thought, this is wrong. If we lynch a scum/SK tonight, we can win if MeMe is town and protects the other townie (unless the scum can roleblock MeMe) or if Stewie is town and he roleblocks the remaining scum/SK.

I would consider a setup with two mafia and an SK, especially since the points system would make the scum more powerful than a regular scum group. However, a part of me wants to plan for the worst-case scenario and assume a mafia and SK.

Still waiting on Stewie's and CoolBot's responses.

[Yggdrasil]

Aloha from Hawaii everyone. Since I've technically not been replaced yet, I hope I can still help answer some questions.

First, about CoolBot's subtleties comment, I always look for people subtlely defending others. I think most good mafia will try to defend their partners in ways that are not obvious, so I look for subtle defenses. I was not trying to railroad you, just posting my thoughts on who I thought was suspicious. About the buying backup doc part, I thought it was possible that Thesp may have been a doctor, so I was going to try my chances at getting a good pro-town role. I don't know what he meant by the "pushing SK theory" comment, but I'll try to answer if he can clarify and if I get online sometime soon.

MeMe, if it changes anything, I bought one-shot vig today, so I would have shown up as townsperson or as having no abilities last night.

As for the lynch today, I'm leaning toward Stewie. I think its plausible that he's mafia, and I think his relative silence and reluctance to post any strong accusations against people early in the game can also be interpreted as traits of an SK.

Anyway, here's something to think about also:

Mr. Stoofer - Town (Axed night 1)
Someone - Town (Shot Night 2)
SpeedyKQ- Town (Shot Night 3)
Nai- Mafia (Minced Night 3)
Thesp- Town (Blown Up Night 4)

Could the method of death be indicative of who is the killer? I think it's plausible that the mafia shoot people, while the SK kills by random methods. If so, then that means an SK killed Thesp, which excludes MeMe from being last night's killer (since we know she didn't go out night 3, so she couldn't have been Nai's killer).

[Yggdrasil]

Also, it is possible that MeMe is anti-town, if she is mafia and Nai was the mafia's killer on night 3. However, that's unlikely and CB's investigation clears her from being SK, so I think she is almost 100% cleared.

Also, in case it's not cleared, I should still be replaced as I will not be able to contribute regularly to the discussion.

[Yggdrasil]

I'm back from vacation. Sorry for making you all wait for two weeks. I am re-reading the thread and will have a post comming shortly.

[Yggdrasil]

... or not so shortly.

CoolBot, it is true that in the beginning of the game I argued against the existence of an SK. I'll quote that post for you:

As a general rule, I don't assume a second killer unless there are two kills in a night or some other good reason to believe so. The hatchet part to me is just flavor.

As promised, when two kills showed up, I began to believe in the theory of an SK:

If we do have an SK, I find it somewhat odd that his/her kill did not show up until now. However, I would also hesitate to attribute Nai's death to a vigilante since that's a very risky kill for a vig to make; had Nai not been mafia, the mafia would have won (assuming three mafia). For once, I will say that the flavor of the kill also strongly indicates a serial killer.

Right now, I believe we do have an SK and that the SK is responsible for Nai's and Thesp's death.

In response to Stewie's comment about me not saying much during the game, I will admit that I didn't post very frequently. However, I feel that I was fairly straightforward on who I thought was suspicious. Stewie, on the other hand, didn't seem to argue very strongly for or against anyone during the first few days, hence my comment about his lack of participation. It's not the lack of posts that concerns me, it's the lack of content relevant to his suspicions.

Right now, I don't really have much of a decision to make. CoolBot is definitely not responsible for Thesp's death. I also find it highly unlikely that MeMe is the killer either. Given CoolBot's investigation of MeMe on night 3, she cannot be the SK (since we know the SK killed on night 3). Since I think that the SK is responsible for Thesp's death, MeMe is also not a good candidate for Thesp's killer. Since I know that I am not Thesp's killer, that leaves only Stewie left as the killer.

Of course, for MeMe and CoolBot, the choice is between Stewie and me. First, to address MeMe's argument, I don't think we should lynch on the basis of which lynch is safest. If you're assuming that we're going to lynch incorrectly in the first place, then you're pretty much just admitting defeat. Since draws usually go to the anti-town roles, it seems likely that all sittuations would end in a town loss (even though, technically the SK/mafia couldn't kill you and you couldn't kill the SK/mafia).

CoolBot, as MeMe mentioned, Stewie also argued against the existence of an SK and he continues to do so. For example, recently he posted:

Although I understand why her investigation clears her, I would think that mafia and sk (if any) alike would get some kind of reward (in the form of points) for skipping a kill. However, right now I doubt anyone is a sk (but I am still open to the possibility).

I'm running out of time so I'll try to post more later.

[Yggdrasil]

I think coolbot is suspicious of you for not arguing against the existance of a sk.

I would have a hard time believing Nai's death was due to a vig. Of those who could have vig killed Nai (SpeedyKQ, Pheobus, Thesp, Coolbot, Meme, Yggdrasil, Stewie), we can eliminate Phoebus (since he's mafia), and us four because no one claimed responsibility for killing Nai. That leaves Speedy or Thesp as our possible vigs. As MeMe pointed out, Thesp said:

Well, crud. Most likely we have 2 mafia and an SK left, if the typical numbers are present in this game. Mass claim time?

Which would be a strange thing to say if he were the vig. Therefore, it is reasonable to exclude him from our list of possible vigilantes.

That leaves Speedy, but it makes no sense for SpeedyKQ to vig kill. Why?

1) A wrong vig kill could have lost the game.
Going into night 3, we had 8 alive. Assuming the normal 3 scum left, we would have been left with 7 alive on day 3. However, if you add an erroneous vig kill into the equation, you have six alive with three scum (i.e. a loss). It just seems too risky of a kill to make unless he was completely sure that Nai was scum. But...

2) SpeekyKQ could not have been completely sure that Nai was scum.
From his death scene, we know Speedy had invulnerability to most night kills. If we are to assume he was also a vig, that would put him at 14 points. To assume he had an investigative ability (lets say he bought backup cop and got the cop ability from mlaker) puts him at 19 points. I find it highly doubtful that he could have gotten that many points. 14 maybe, but not 19.

That said, I can think of a logical reason why Speedy would have vig killed. Speedy probably noticed one-shot vig was not a restricted ability, and that the mafia could obtain one-shot vig. Therefore, with 8 alive on night 3, he could have assumed the mafia would use their kill plus the one-shot vig kill to end the game. In order to prevent this from happening, Speedy took a shot at the most suspicious person available: Nai.

So, yes, there is a case for either argument. Personally, I think there's an SK because of the flavor of the kill. I do not think a pro-town vigilante would mince up his victims and place him in ziplock bags. This kill seems much more consistent with a serial killer (though an argument like this does get dangerously close to trying to outguess the mod). I do agree that the opening post doesn't really support the existence of an SK through its various references to the mafia, but that could just be an oversight on the part of the mod.

What makes you think that MeMe did not kill Thesp?

By CoolBot's investigation (post 370) we know that MeMe stayed put night 3. That eliminates her from being a serial killer. You also claimed to have blocked Phoebus night 3. So, in order for MeMe to be part of the mafia, Nai must have been the killer on night 3. Therefore, it is unlikely that MeMe is part of the mafia just looking at it that way. Plus, MeMe doesn't seem scummy to me. I would consider her a possible SK if not for CB's investigation, but there are better candidates for probable mafia.


I just thought of something. Lets assume I am the sole remaining killer. What do you guys lose if you don't lynch me?

1) We lynch Stewie
MeMe protects CoolBot. I can't kill anyone because CB is doc-protected and MeMe is invulnerable to night kills. Since "the mafia can only buy an ability once" (opening post), we don't have to worry about another unstoppable kill (unless SK has access to those abilities as well and I'm the SK).

2) We lynch MeMe
Stewie can block me, prevent my kill, and be sure that I'm mafia/SK tomorrow.

3) If we somehow decide to lynch CoolBot, I'll be blocked and all my targets will be protected from night kills.

I'm not sure how this works out if we assume two killers left, but if you believe we have one killer left, then I've pretty much already lost if I am the sole remaining killer.

[Yggdrasil]

I thought you were attacking me on the basis that I didn't believe in an SK, so I pointed this out.

[Yggdrasil]

I would be comfortable lynching Stewie. I would not vote for either MeMe or CoolBot, but I will go along with a no lynch if we reach a consensus on that. However, I would rather just lynch Stewie today and not risk some unforseen variable screwing us over tonight.

[Yggdrasil]

I'm still having a hard time attributing Nai's death to a vig, and no one has offered a convincing argument that there isn't an SK. I would be open to considering a 2 mafia/1SK setup or a 3 mafia/1SK setup (meaning we have 2 anti-town roles left, making the results of a no lynch less certain), unless someone can convince me why we don't have an SK left.

Stewie, why do you find MeMe suspicious?

[Yggdrasil]

mid-post

[Yggdrasil]

And specially for the second one, Ygg should agree, since he not only believed in the existance of a sk, but he still does. Which brings me to another point: if he believes in the existance of a sk, shouldn't he be interested in lynching coolbot? If there's a sk, he's defenetly it. If we don't lynch him and we lynch wrong, then we would have two scum left and the only hope is pretty much having the scum killing each other. However, if we lynch coolbot, there would only be one scum, and two townies with powers, which would make it hard for the scum to win it. All this assuming we have 1 scum and one sk. Of course, I don't believe we do, so I don't think lynching coolbot is a good idea.

I'm open to the possibility of a setup with two mafia and 1 SK. In this case, CoolBot cannot be the SK, because the SK is the sole remaining killer. In case this is the setup, I agree that we should go after the one killer who we know exists.

[Yggdrasil]

Since you don't believe in an SK, you must think I'm mafia. I think that Stewie is a better candidate to be mafia than I am based on our performances day 1. For example, wheras I bandwaggoned Nai and attacked him based on his reaction to Thesp's vote, Stewie never really attacked Nai at all. All he posted was "Me too" (Post #80) following your post where you said you would vote for Nai if Nai didn't explain himself. Furthermore, when Phoebus starts a counter-bandwaggon against mlaker (per MeMe's suggestion), Stewie immediately jumps on despite his "me too" comment suggenting he would vote for Nai.

Also note that, aside from CoolBot's random vote, I was the only one to mention Phoebus as being suspicious prior to day 3 (Post #194).

vote: Stewie

for now. If CoolBot is unwilling to vote for Stewie, I will switch to a no lynch.

[Yggdrasil]

Vote Count prior to my vote
CoolBot - 1 (Yggdrasil)
Pheobus- 1 (Coolbot)
Thesp- 1 (Nai)
Nai- 2 (Meme, Thesp)

It would have been pretty risky for me to place this vote if I were scum. It made Nai the clear favorite for lynching. Scum would have waited until later, until it was more clear that Nai was a target for lynching.

[Yggdrasil]

unvote: Stewie

You actually bring up a good point about day 3. Originally, I thought you had posted the vote analysis after everyone had said Phoebus was pretty suspicious. But, at that time, only Thesp and I thought he was suspicious, while MeMe was questioning Thesp. Immediately after, MeMe agreed with the suspicions against Phoebus. I'll have to admit I was wrong; MeMe is a valid suspect if there are mafia remaining.

I'm still having a hard time giving up the idea of an SK, though. Can someone offer some reasons why we don't have an SK. Maybe that will clarify my thought process somewhat.

[Yggdrasil]

I'm not voting no lynch because I'm still concerned about the possibility of an SK and mafia still alive.

[Yggdrasil]

Very interesting. I think that no-lynch looks no-good to scum...Stewie's willingness to go with it was a point in his favor to me. Though Yggdrasil said he'd do it if it was the consensus...when it came down to his vote, he chose to try to get something going on Stewie instead,

As I said before, my preference was to lynch Stewie. I was going to see if that was possible before going to no lynch.

which was, I believe, an attempt to persuade ME (as CoolBot's pretty set and Stewie's certainly not interested). I, however, didn't join him so he seems to be going for the next best thing...positioning himself to vote for me. He's now asking someone to, basically, argue him out of the idea of SK (and...what?

in

to the idea of voting me?)

It's three to lynch today. If CoolBot is set, even if I convince you to vote Stewie it doesn't do any good. Plus, how did you get the idea that I'm moving to the next best thing after failing to convince you. Between when I voted Stewie and unvoted him, you did not post. Plus, this part has me even more worried about MeMe being scum because she seems really paranoid about the possibility of me voting for her.


Anyway, after rereading my posts, I think I need to clarify some points. Since I'm considering MeMe as a possible scum, I'm no longer 100% certain that Stewie is one of the killer(s). However, I was not sure no lynch was a viable option because of the possibility of two killers. If someone were to convince me that there aren't two killers, I would be happy to no lynch.

After doing some thinking (something I've admittedly NOT done enough of in this game), I'm now pretty sure there aren't two killers. If there are two killers, CoolBot must be one of them. However, based on his unwillingness to go with a no lynch, I think it's safe to say that he is not the second killer. Since there is only one killer, I have no more problems with a no lynch.

vote: no lynch

[Yggdrasil]

If there were two killers, we could have two kills which could leave us in a losing sittuation (or a draw).

[Yggdrasil]

What made you change your mind? Why do you think lynching me is better than no lynch?

[Yggdrasil]

This is what concerns me. If Stewie is scum, he wins if he lynches me. If MeMe is scum, she wins if both me and Stewie get lynched, but loses if only I get lynched. Both are following the optimal strategies if scum. I'll need to reread the thread to decide whether to vote for Stewie or abstain from voting.

[Yggdrasil]

My main suspicion of Stewie is based on the fact that if there is an SK, he must be it. However, my only evidence of an SK lies in the mod's description of Nai's death. Since I'm always one to argue against trying to outguess the mod, I will go with there being no SK. Which means, MeMe is mafia and by lynching me, we win. Hopefully, I'm right. If not, I apologize to the town for making the right decision and for getting myself lynched.

unvote: No lynch, vote: Yggdrasil

[Yggdrasil]

Wow, it looks like I was completely wrong and completely correct at the same time. I'm glad to know that I wasn't completely crazy thinking that there were two scum left (Stewie and MeMe had me second-guessing myself way too much that last day). I'm glad it worked out for the town in the end.