Newbie 841 - Game over!

[Pablo Molinero]

The whole game really hinges on Starbuck, I want to see what she has to say/think.

[Tororingu-chan]

But it helps and is MUCH more likely that some people on the wagon are scum. How long have you been playing Mafia (the game)? Are we in some magical game where scum does NOT lynch town?!

I think there's something that you're not quite getting... =_=;;
1) Scum lynch town. Well, there's a high probability of it. Sure, you seem to have gotten that down!
2) Town lynch town. Because they don't know any better. OK, that seems to be fine too~ ^_^ In fact, since there's more town than scum, we are certain that some of the people on the mislynch are town.
3) Since both town and scum lynch town, you can't say that because someone lynched town, they are scum. Because town do that too. =_=; Conversely, you can't say "AHA, look at how pro-town I am for NOT being on the mislynch!!" (as you seem to be doing)

Seriously, that's like saying... well, sheep are woolly, and a wolf in sheepskin is also woolly! You are woolly, therefore you are a wolf!!! @_@;; It makes no sense!

There's more I can add, but later~ ^_^;; No time now!
Come to think about it, I had a pro-town read on Pablo the whole game because he backed off on fitz, which I considered a very pro-town move. On second thought, it's really not... all he did was make peace with him, which is actually a little scummy.

Look at it from my point of view: If I am not lynched then the town is guaranteed a win. Period.

I would probably lynch you based on this statement alone... T_T; As long as you stay alive, you win, huh.... right~ >_>;;

Hey, why don't we come to a deal~ Figure out your top suspect, and we lynch you, and then him, in that order. Sound good to you~? ^_^

[Starbuck]

My analysis is in work. I replaced into two games at the same time so it's kinda kicking me in the ass, but I will get the first part of my analysis up tonight for you guys. Apologies for the delay.

[Tororingu-chan]

Also WHY is not commenting (being distracted my more immedeate people attacking me) more scummy than SAYING YOU DON'T THINK SCUM IS... SCUM!

Distracted by who? At that point, the whole "fitz vs. u" had died down~ I posted my first post against DeathNote then. IIRC you were busy calling ABR anti-town at that point~ ^_^;

I think not calling attention to/ignoring a case on a scumbuddy is scummier than saying that you outright disbelieve it...

Oh, and at what point did you start finding PE more scummy that fitz? Just curious~

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Official Vote Count

Pablo Molinero - 1 (PaltryExcuse)

PaltryExcuse - 1 (Pablo Molinero)


Not Voting - 3 (havingfitz, Starbuck, Tororingu-chan)

3 to Lynch.

Deadline

is the end of Sunday, November 8.

[Pablo Molinero]

A) I think not calling attention to/ignoring a case on a scumbuddy is scummier than saying that you outright disbelieve it...

B) Oh, and at what point did you start finding PE more scummy that fitz? Just curious~

A) But

why

? Do you have a reason or logic-process or are you just going by gut? I inherently disagree. If you can't explain it to me, can you really justify it to yourself?

B) Also, the split in my brain right now is 60% PE and 40% fitz. ABR was right in saying that both scum were likely riding the Day 1 wagon. I'm not alone in this mindset. What pushed PE over the top is the direct case against me and what I feel is an invalid point: calling me scum based on my interactions (or lack thereof) with Bob, when others outright tried to go AGAINST your case on the scum.

Back to the wagon point, let's just look at the theory without names attached:

You have three people as suspects. Two have been on a town-lynch and one has not. Scum's main priority is to get mislynches to win so they are more likely to be on the wagon. Shouldn't you lean towards lynching the people on the town-lynch as opposed to the person that abstained? This is as simple and basic as mafia theory comes. Occam's razor: it's the simplest solution.

My arguments boil down to these points and I'm standing by them, yes, because I'm hoping that it's just something wrong in my phrasing that's not clicking with you.

[Tororingu-chan]

I disagree with the fact that you disagree! ^_^ Gosh, I think it's stupid for scum to call any attention to their scumbuddy (whether they agree or not with the arguments put forth) so naturally that makes you scummy for me! @_@;

Also, can't believe you just tried to use Occam's razor. =_=

I don't think you're dense enough to really believe the stuff you're proposing, so I'd have to say I think you're scum! ^_^ I have a better opinion of you than that!

[Tororingu-chan]

FYI I have no intention of explaining anything unless asked by someone who is not Pablo~ I really don't think I need to! ^_^;

[Pablo Molinero]

I disagree with the fact that you disagree! ^_^ Gosh, I think it's stupid for scum to call any attention to their scumbuddy (whether they agree or not with the arguments put forth) so naturally that makes you scummy for me! @_@;

Also, can't believe you just tried to use Occam's razor. =_=

I don't think you're dense enough to really believe the stuff you're proposing, so I'd have to say I think you're scum! ^_^ I have a better opinion of you than that!

What a f**king terrible attitude. You've slapped me in the face and act as if you don't realize it. Hide behind those cutesy smiley-faces all you want. I'm town and yes I do believe in what I'm saying. You're condescending, dismissive, and oblivious all in one post. I'm pulling the IC card: I believe my argument because I have played many a game on this site and you start to see trends after a while. This is one of them.

...I'm done with you. I'm going to be asking around for opinions after this game is over just to see how wrong you are: your grasp of basic mafia theory is crap if you think lynching me over the others is a good idea based on the points I've put forward/argued.

FYI I have no intention of explaining anything unless asked by someone who is not Pablo~ I really don't think I need to! ^_^;

You don't think you have to explain yourself?!?! What kind of privileged attitude is that bullshit. Come up with some reasons and flow of logic instead of just going "nuh uh" and leaving it at that. You may be cleared as an innocent, but that still means you have to think critically at times. Someone call her on this. Starbuck? Fitz?

Gah, I can already see the inherently false calls of "scum-blowup" coming my way. I urge someone to do a meta on me: I get this passionate/pissed when I'm town.

[Tororingu-chan]

this? ^_^ Biggest blowup I found so far, but I haven't read everything so I may have missed something. Feel free to point out some examples where you blow up as town! xD

Uh oh, it looks like I've offended you! @_@;;
I'm sorry I didn't realise you were serious! I thought you were kidding or something. ^_^

But... don't you think that you're simplifying things way too much? =_=; "Scum will always be trying to mislynch"? Do you think that they

have

to be on the wagon of a self-destructing townie? Why not try to avoid suspicion if mislynch is going to happen anyway? @_@;;

Even if you're town and you find your argument definitely convincing because there are two uncomfirmed players (assuming you are town), realise that for me, there are three uncomfirmed players... so it will take more than a gross oversimplication of the game to convince me. T_T;; Even if the almighty IC says so, I still don't see any reason for both scum to be on this particular mislynch of OMG. I just don't see any need for BOTH of them to do it~~ >_>;;

Anyway, I tend to highly distrust wagon analyses because they are way too easy to manipulate (by scum). They can just jump off the wagon of a townie lynch that is sure to go ahead and then say, "look, look, I didn't lynch a townie! That makes me townie!".... wait... that looks a bit familiar... @_@;;

I thought this was self-evident, but maybe it wasn't after all... @_@;; I was also lazy, so I didn't really feel like explaining. No hard feelings~! ^_^

To me, your argument looks like this:
1) One of PE and fitz are likely scum because they were on the OMGLyncher mislynch.
2) You are not scum because you WEREN'T on that lynch.
3) TRUST ME, I'M THE IC!!!!

[Tororingu-chan]

Incidentally, somehow I'm starting to get a town vibe from Pablo again~ >_>;
Somehow, I feel that a scum-Pablo probably wouldn't be comfortable trying to intimidate the rest of the newbie-town using his IC status. An IC winning that way would be abusing his status, no? ^_^;; Maybe he really is town just town and losing it!

Still, the fact remains that Pablo's argument remains utterly unconvincing. If he really is town, he already knows which two lynches to go for.... so it's easy to make statements like "scum must mislynch without fail" just because the other two happened to be on that wagon...v_v;

T-chan is sorry if she hurt Pablo's feelings~ >_<;;

[Pablo Molinero]

Bah, the "IC Card" should mean nothing, in all honesty. I was out of line with that one.

[Pablo Molinero]

My analysis is in work. I replaced into two games at the same time so it's kinda kicking me in the ass, but I will get the first part of my analysis up tonight for you guys. Apologies for the delay.

Hopefully "tonight" is sooner than later. Are both Paltry and fitz away or just lurking?

[PaltryExcuse]

I'm here! I just missed one day. I've returned. I spent that Wed. night online here and then fell behind on readings (which I'm now caught up on). I'll post as soon as possible.

[PaltryExcuse]

Oh! And fitz is V/LA until today, so I'd expect to see a response from him sometime.

[Pablo Molinero]

Cool, let's keep this game moving.

[PaltryExcuse]

Don't try and spin this. I say "Look at it from my point of view" as in I know I'm town. Unlike other mafia games where you have to choose between people in LyLo and hope for the best, if I can secure PE and fitz lynches (in either order) in 2 days, we are guaranteed a town win.

The bold part concerns me, since if you were true town you'd have some degree of uncertianty and should be looking at

both

me and fitz, and try to secure those two running lynches.

My point was that the statement was unneeded. It seemed as though you were waving the townie flag. Secondly, I'm not sure making a case against the guy I think is less scummy is a good thing as it could just confuse matters. If others think I'm wrong, I can post where I think fitz has acted odd / my thoughts on his relationship to DN/almightybob.

I'm pulling the IC card: I believe my argument because I have played many a game on this site and you start to see trends after a while. This is one of them.

...I'm done with you. I'm going to be asking around for opinions after this game is over just to see how wrong you are: your grasp of basic mafia theory is crap if you think lynching me over the others is a good idea based on the points I've put forward/argued.

FYI I have no intention of explaining anything unless asked by someone who is not Pablo~ I really don't think I need to! ^_^;

You don't think you have to explain yourself?!?! What kind of privileged attitude is that bullshit. Come up with some reasons and flow of logic instead of just going "nuh uh" and leaving it at that. You may be cleared as an innocent, but that still means you have to think critically at times. Someone call her on this. Starbuck? Fitz?

Gah, I can already see the inherently false calls of "scum-blowup" coming my way. I urge someone to do a meta on me: I get this passionate/pissed when I'm town.

I think the game that T-chan pointed out is a case of you getting angry (calling other people f***s) and being scum... so you do get passionate/pissed when you're not town. Secondly, if you know you have a meta of only blowing up while town, why not blow up while scum? Anger over text is easily faked. Like I said before (post 445), I think emotions are a null-tell.

Thirdly, on the matter of the IC Card and just the general issue of experience=right, I just want to point this out from the wiki:
Fallacy!
Appealing to your position as IC, or to your experience in general, to prove you're right is not a good way of proving anything.

Finally in that same game, Open 153, Incognito has this to say about your scumbuddy JDodge after the reveal:

I don't really get why we didn't lynch Pablo Day 1; I thought the case I made against him was perfectly sound, and he didn't really do anything all game anyway. Every other post was a complaint about how busy he was, and you guys pretty much allowed him and JDodge to lurk to victory. Plain and simple. I'm appalled that after I was night-killed, nobody looked back to see any of the points I raised against him and JDodge;

JDodge was pretty obviously avoiding commenting on Pablo when I pushed my case against him.

I IM-ed Nuwen directly after I was killed asking her if the scum team was JD and Pablo, and she confirmed that I was correct. Yeah, there's night-time WIFOM that could come into play, but you can't deny the fact that scum have to eliminate threats to themselves, and me being the only person to point out Pablo's behavior was an obvious threat to his agenda.

The highlighted part, about JDodge avoiding commenting on the case against his scumbuddy, is what I want your attention to be drawn to. Not saying anything or avoiding talking about an issue against a scum is a pretty telling thing. The idea of 'not talking about a case' being scummy, especially a case against a known scum, is not a new concept to the game.

After all this, I come to say:

Confirm Vote: Pablo Molinero

[Pablo Molinero]

And, per usual, I argue that it's mostly a circumstantial playstyle thing and is a null-tell. In this game, I was quite distracted with what were more pressing matters, either real life or fitz/ABR.

Do you really think that you or fitz having a few one-off comments about DN/bob constitute anything stronger than me ignoring the situation. It's not like you were all gung-ho one way or the other. Your premise applies for all three of us in vary magnitudes. I would maybe concede your point only if you admit that you and fitz, on this specific point, don't look too much better. I think the whole thing is a wash and vote-analysis wins out again.

Now if you excuse me, I have to go find some of my more town-epic blowups (what you linked to was a mildly annoyed, staged argment with my scumbuddy, not a blowup) to appease T-c.

[havingfitz]

Sorry I didn't get a chance to post yesterday. Pablo...I said I was v/La until yesterday, why the continued pressuring on me to post? I agree it would be good to hear from Starbuck...especially since we now know she is town and is set to play the deciding vote in Day 4 if we don't get it right today. Please get into the game Starbuck....

So we have TC for the rest of the day and Starbuck confirmed town. That leaves me with Pablo and Paltry to focus on. As I can not be 100% sure Pablo is scum I would say I'm 70% in favor of a lynch on him. He has dismissed my Day 2 suspicions of him as a weak point I was championing. I have had my suspicions of you since Day 1 and focused on you for a good part of Day 2 (until you basically called uncle and asked me to look elsewhere). Your entire defense of my accusations was the fact I was editing your posts to create a convenient reality for me...when in fact Paltry had asked me to clarify (more specifically) an earlier response from me to a question he had on me case towards you. You defense on TCs suspicions of you today is equally weak. Based on your voting record? You were equally on the OMG wagon as everyone else and then pulled out when I voted OMG/Ray. How townie of you <---sarcasm. I do not think scum would be hardpressed to both expose themselves with vote a Day 1 lynch for someone who was the overwhelming favorite to go. And your day 2 vote meant nothing as Almightybob had confessed and you really had no choice. That vote was based on the timing of you being on the site. And did your vote even count? I thought we needed four and you were the 5th to vote. Lastly...your comments on being so passionate when you are town had me doubting your scuminess until TC dug up the passionate scum post you made. I felt that was a very important revelation on her part and basically sealed my suspicions towards you over Paltry.

I wil take another closer look at Paltry and wait until Starbucks provides her thoughts before placing my vote but unless something significant changes my mind my vote will be going to Pablo.

[PaltryExcuse]

I think his vote counted because T-chan had moved her vote to DeathNote, who was no longer in the game.

@Starbuck: Problems with getting on maybe?

[havingfitz]

Vel.....can you prod Starbuck?

Her role is pivitol (if we don't get today's vote right) and she has only made two very short introductory posts since replacing Ronnieroo last Tuesday. And it's been 70+ hrs since her last one.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Vel.....can you prod Starbuck?

Her role is pivitol (if we don't get today's vote right) and she has only made two very short introductory posts since replacing Ronnieroo last Tuesday. And it's been 70+ hrs since her last one.

Will do, as soon as I get home (at a wedding this weekend). Should be tonight.

[Tororingu-chan]

I'd really like the replacement to chime in before we do anything else~~ >_<;;
Thanks, VRK!

[Starbuck]

Sorry for my delay, I have had military watch and crap all weekend and was installing Windows 7 today.



Starting on Page 1


So reading from the alive and dead, it's plain to see that we are in the 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Sane Doctor, 5 Townies setup.

On my predecessor

I honestly think OMGl's FOS'ing isn't terribly scummy. It doesn't strike as super pro-town, I think it's just a null tell personally.

ronnie's right on par with me about this. I don't think it's a bad thing to FOS.

I don't have an issue with her Post 80 either. I'm definitely feeling what she said about T-chan and about Pablo. Altough, I didn't really feel that what he said was WIFOM.

I think ronnie and I were separated at birth because she hits the nail on the head in Post 115. I seriously don't even feel like his "mistake" was even part of being Newbie. I think scum saw an opportunity and ran with it. It rather saddens me that in the Newbie Queue lately that the Newbies aren't really being orientated, which is the whole point of the Newbie Queue.

On Tororingu-chan

I'm not bandwagoning~! I just love wagons~~~ <3

Radio Flyers?

Sorry, it had to be said. =P



T-chan seems extremely concerned about bandwagoning in just her first few posts.

I was just reminding everyone to pay attention to the number on votes on people. L-2 isn't close to a lynch yet...

How so? L-2 is EXTREMELY close to a lynch.

I'd like to mention that L-2 isn't really close to a lynch -- you'd need both scum to jump on the wagon (not the cleverest of scum strategies) or two really clueless townies~~ I've actually seen the latter before and someone was quicklynched page one~! Town lost that game~

So the fact that 3 other people are already voting you (cases to be had or not) makes no difference to you? Hmm, interesting.

On the contrary, wagoning in the RVS is GREAT~~~!! It gets the ball rolling much faster!

You say this, but just earlier you say that you don't like quicklynches. Wouldn't a wagon in RVS at some point lead to a quicklynch?

A wussy way of spreading suspicions around without actually voting~~~~ v_v I don't like them and I won't use them.... I think people should put their money where they mouth is and VOTE if they find people so freaking suspicious!!!!

I disagree with this because you can have more than one suspicion because everyone knows that in a game there is more than one scum.


T-chan starts asking questions and get the game moving along. Although, I'm not quite sure if I like the direction that she took those questions.

@Mafia_failure:

I also find people who FoS suspicious unless they have two people to choose which in this case is what OMGLyncher did.

Did you or did you not find OMGLyncher's FoS's suspicious? o_O Why would it be less scummy if there are "two people to choose from"...? @_@;; I'm a little confused by your reasoning..... >_<

I'm not sure if you were asking this question to try and get the newbies brains working or not. It very well seems to me that Mafia_failure did state what you wanted to know. As someone who stated that they are very experienced with this game, I'm quite surprised by this.

Post 63 gives me the impression of being very overeager, but moreso in a scummy way than a townie way. Like "I'm ready to lynch anyone, as long as it's not me!"

I never thought it was beneficial for any player, scum or town, to claim a town-alignment... v_v;; You prove your townie-ness by your play, not by saying that you are one~~

Not always. Most people (once they have been around the MS block once or twice) normally get proved townie by their meta.

Eh... Pablo's last post, which went along the lines of:
"Hey you townies, you can't trust me just because I'm the IC, I'm only here to win the game

for the town.

" strikes me as a very odd and contradictory sort of comment to me.... o_O;; Is it just me???

What were you thinking when you wrote that, Pablo?? @_@;;;

"Hey townies, try to not look at my IC status like it's anything special, I'm townie and trying to win with you. If you're scum, you can screw off."

Yes.

How is it contradictory? You're reaching hard, and you know it.

I also feel a bit of reaching here.


I'm not liking T-chan's reasoning for voting OMGL in Post 84. OMGL is a brand new player, and with yourself being so experienced, I would expect you to show or say why scum are the ones that normally lurk and maybe explaining what ad hominem means. When OMGL rebukes the vote in Post 95, T-chan seems to get a bit overdefensive in her reply. The thing that bothers me the most is that T-chan harps on OMGL about his inactivity, but at this point, there are others who have been more inactive than he has been. You definitely seem to be grasping for straws with this argument.


Definitely not liking you answering for other people, for example:

@Pablo: People are watching you because you seem experienced, and that scares them.

On PaltryExcuse

I like how he tries to start moving the game out of RVS by asking questions in Post 24 and Post 83.

I disagree with the following:

rstly, OMGLyncher, probably because he is the only one who has a case laid out against him and also the fact that he seems to no longer post. He has admittedly lurked, and overall this behaviour makes him look scummy.

I definitely feel that the case on OMGL was very weak and it seemed like everyone else was just parroting off what Pablo or T-chan said. That being said, so far it just seems like a very easy/opportunistic lynch for the scum.

I'd also like to mention that DeathNote is at the typical scum third vote on the RayFrost/OMGL bandwagon.

@The people who are watching me, what makes you think I have a potentional to be scum?

You're playing the game. Hence, possible mafia.

How is this in any way answering the question she asked?

On Pablo Molinero

While he didn't keep his RVS vote on OMGL, he seemed to jump off that wagon so he wouldn't look suspicious when a townie was lynched.

This town is way too tentative for it's own good (although it happens all the time in newbie games, so it's understandable.) You know what, I'm still cool with my vote on OMGLyncher. So far he's given us an admission that he's been suspicious and then he's done nothing to re-divert attention from himself. Why? I figure he's scum that knows he can't legitimately build a case on anyone else. I've had this problem before as scum, too, and I can easily see it being the same situation.

This bothers me coming from an IC as I read through and know OMGL's alignment. Most of the time scum will not admit that they have been suspicious and will be trying everything they can to divert attention from themselves.

You make him sound like he's a mafia veteran when this post definitely says otherwise.

On havingfitz

He stays very quiet. I know I'm just catching up, but I keep forgetting that he's in the game with how little he posts.

Like I said before though...the only person close to getting a vote for me at the moment would be OMG and even then I would need to look over his posts again.

This bothers me because it seems like you are just following the crowd, and the fact that you would need to look over his posts again proves your uncertainty.



Caught up to the bottom of page 5


I'm heading to bed as I live in Sicily and I'm exhausted, but I will get the rest up tomorrow.

[PaltryExcuse]

@The people who are watching me, what makes you think I have a potentional to be scum?

You're playing the game. Hence, possible mafia.

How is this in any way answering the question she asked?

The first comment "You're playing...etc." was just a bit of humour and the more serious part comes later in the same post. I said its her infrequency at posting and it really is more of a gut read.