Stars Aligned - GAME OVER

[SlySly]

This scenario is pretty ridiculous. Pablo Molinero would need to be in on that as well from his claim today, and I don't think it is likely that we still have three cult.

I'm just going through possible scenarios. Sometimes the ridiculous happens. Why would Pablo need to be in on such a scenario to make it true?

Two cult left makes sense from the game setup percentages and Knight of Cydonia's claim... Their best bet is to stick together as their chances winning as murderer are much less. It is much easier to hide as cult than murderer plus it gives them a partner still.

I agree, but you never know what goes on in people's heads.

[semioldguy]

I think one of the following three players is very likely to be scum pending upon the answer to my question from the moderator:

Magua, ryan2754 or SlySly

(with SlySly being the least likely of the three from a logical but not analytical standpoint)

I have eliminated most of the other players based upon actions taken the night I heard noise and discounted those in need of replacement during that time as being unlikely candidates (nachomamma8, Looker and Chaco) but that doesn't eliminate them from being possible scum, just eliminates them as possible scum who targeted me that night.

[SlySly]

Hey Semi, would you agree with me that staying an investigator in this game gives you a greater chance of a win than an investigator turned murderer?

[semioldguy]

Yes, and even moreso in the current game state. I think going murderer is a much more difficult win for either faction.

[SlySly]

I think one of the following three players is very likely to be scum...

Magua, ryan2754 or SlySly

All Cultists who submit a name

for the Ritual

gain an

Insanity

.

My insanity count is 1 from my predecessor's stalk on Zwet.

---------------------------------

Yes, and even moreso in the current game state. I think going murderer is a much more difficult win for either faction.

I agree, but you never know what goes on in people's heads.

Proves my point. My predecessor tried to go murderer. Made no sense to me, I am glad I got to switch his selection at replace time.

[Percy]

Vote Count

Kise - 2 (Sajin, Furpants_Tom)

semioldguy - 1 (Kise)
Magua - 1 (Nachomamma8)
No Lynch - 1 (Datadanne)

Not Voting - 10 (Looker, ryan2754, Magua, CSL, Pablo Molinero, Sarag, semioldguy, SlySly, ZykeZero, Chaco)

Deadline

:

Midday on Saturday the 31st of October AEST (9pm Friday site time)

.

Prodding

: Magua

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

@Mod: Am I correct in reading the rules that cultists participating in the ritual don't get bloody if the kill is prevented? Do they only get bloody on a successful kill?

A successful Ritual is one that is not disrupted by Murder or Research. The creature still succeeds in bloodying up its victim and passing that on to the summoner even if the target is saved.
Short answers: No, No.

[Datadanne]

Also data, do you think we have any murderer's remaining?

Yes, And they are ooh so close to winning.

For the other question, im tired, will check in soon.

[semioldguy]

How can they be so close to winning? With no deaths last night it isn't possible for any murderer to even have two kills at this point when they need a minimum of three to win.

[Sarag]

Ok I've caught up on my notes, but I'm too tired to try to put together some analysis, although I have a few inklings I want to follow up on, so hopefully my next post will be better than my last few.

First,

vote: Looker

. Explain your insanity and I might remove the vote. You are being SUPER scummy by avoiding this.

@mod - Datadanne unvoted Kise and is voting No Lynch.

Noted and fixed.

@semi - your noise list agrees with mine except that on night 2 my noise was explained by Pablo resuscitating me, and I don't know of an explanation for Furpants_Tom's noise.

@Datadanne - explain the following:

I got a res kit from dramonic, But that´s gone now.

How could you have gotten a res kit from dramonic? He claimed to have already destroyed his when he got bloody from killing Tuberkulos.

And will everyone please

STOP CLAIMING YOUR GEAR

. If scum know what we have, especially if we plan what actions we will take, they can easily plan around us. In fact,

FoS: Tom

for suggesting it.

[Datadanne]

How could you have gotten a res kit from dramonic? He claimed to have already destroyed his when he got bloody from killing Tuberkulos.

I.....
Have no idea.

Mod: Would you kindly explain if this is some kind of mod error?

[Furpants_Tom]

Sounds to me like gear-claiming has already produced some useful information. And I don't think the cult will be able to plan around us - we're not announcing our investigation or resuscitation targets, it'll just give them (and us) a better idea of numbers. If it's true that the last useful fetish they have is from semioldguy, and we're interrogating noises anyway, this is a way of giving scum another chance to slip up.

[Chaco]

So, time to take a vote? Further the gear claim, or end the gear claim?

Also,

FoS

on Data until Percy answers.

[semioldguy]

No gear claim please.

I don't think there is a need for it yet.

[Nachomamma8]

I'm against the gear claim.

[Percy]

Mod: Would you kindly explain if this is some kind of mod error?

Yes, mod error, apologies.

Damn spreadsheets.

[Sarag]

And I don't think the cult will be able to plan around us - we're not announcing our investigation or resuscitation targets

Even if we don't declare targets, if we declare that we will or might be taking the resuscitate action, the cultists will know a target that is less likely to be able to be protected from the ritual.

@Tom & Sajin - why are you still voting Kise?

[Furpants_Tom]

Because he hasn't been cleared? Mod confirmation of an error in his PM doesn't mean that he took the actions he said he did; and I still find his active lurking suspicious.

[semioldguy]

I agree with Sarag's vote.

@Looker
You need to explain how you got your insanity; dodging it for this long is scummy.

@Furpants_Tom
There are lots of active lurkers right now 9way too many for comfort) why do you single out Kise from them?

[Furpants_Tom]

Because his efforts were the most blatant on Days 1 and 2. There are people who become more or less active throughout, or coasted straight through to replacement, but Kise has always been around, just posting nothing or nonsense. Dodgy-as, bro.

Note that from my Top 5 list of yesterday, I still think ryan2754 is suss, but I'm substantially convinced of Pablo's innocence, and I think Datadanne probably didn't turn murderer - and must be kicking himself if he did.

[Kise]

V/LA

Probably until Tuesday.

Tom, do you know why I have been posting mostly fluff?

Insanity Infraction

[Sarag]

@semi - your noise list agrees with mine except that on night 2 my noise was explained by Pablo resuscitating me, and I don't know of an explanation for Furpants_Tom's noise.

Correction - dramonic claimed to have stalked Tom on night 2.

[Furpants_Tom]

V/LA

Probably until Tuesday.

Tom, do you know why I have been posting mostly fluff?

I know why you say you have. And it's a compelling reason. However, out of a field of mostly innocent-seeming townfolk, you're the closest to scummy I can find. If someone can sell me on a better target, I'm all ears.

[SlySly]

I agree with Sarag's vote.

Then why don't you back that agreement up with a vote. Merely agreeing doesn't apply any pressure.

[Sarag]

I know why you say you have. And it's a compelling reason. However, out of a field of mostly innocent-seeming townfolk, you're the closest to scummy I can find. If someone can sell me on a better target, I'm all ears.

What about Looker?

[semioldguy]

I agree with Sarag's vote.

Then why don't you back that agreement up with a vote. Merely agreeing doesn't apply any pressure.

Because of a certain voting restriction I have, as mentioned previously. If I vote him and change it, I won't be able to go back to him for two days. For now:

HoS: Looker