Dichotomafia- Games Over

[Talitha]

Thanks ralphm.

What's interesting to me at this point, is that uraj hasn't voted for ralphm, and ralphm hasn't voted for uraj. And no-one else has indicated leanings.

If I had to vote at this time, it'd be for uraj.

[Uraj45]

My primary reason for not voting at this point is because I still want discussion and I want to figure more out about the second scum that is probably lurking around somewhere.
Anyway, Ralphm's argument about balance is fundamentally flawed. As we've already clearly established, making direct comparisons between the village and the town doesen't work. We may have more useful cops than the village, but they clearly have powerful roles that we don't. Wolfsbane. Apprentice Healer. Yes, we get a vig in exchange for the wolfsbane, but what about the healer? As ,a matter of fact, without another usefull cop we may find ourslves at a lesser position than the town.
Consider this: We don't have a single cop that doesen't have a drawback. A naive or paranoid cop is

worse than a townie

It allows for dangerous assumptions that could get both the cop and the acussee killed. Insane cop is not just as good a s a sane one, as the results could easily be misleading without context. And role cop? Yes that's a good role as it allows for unjaded results. However, there's a drawback

there

too. Which brings me to my next point.
Wacky had the drawback that he would appear guilty upon investigation. Now, if you accept Ralphm's theory, you must assume that I am not a cop. Furthermore, because his theory states that an additional useful cop would unbalance the town in comparison to the village, than you must also assume that MMCL was a useless cop. So, that means that Wacky's drawback was designed specifically for MMCL. Kind of weird but believable(note that two makes more sense here.).
Now, what does "appears guilty upon investigation" mean to a paranoid cop? Nothing! paranoid gets guilty all the time anyway. What does it mean to a naive cop? Different mods would probably handle this differently, but i would expect it to be handled the same way as a paranoid cop investigating a godfather, and i think the generally accepted answer here is to ignore the godfather clause and return guilty. The argument that a naive cop would see guilty in this case is a valid one but far from rock solid.
So what we're left with is that according to Ralphm's theory, Wacky's drawback was designed for the specific purpose of one questionable scenario. That seems like a weak motive at best. Furthermore, ralphm's contention that that there is a 1 to 1 ratio of useful cops between village and town is destroyed, as this situation creats something more like 1.5 to 1.
That's quite a few flaws right there. I hope it's enough to reveal to all that ralphm is spouting craplogic at you.

[Fishbulb]

What's interesting to me at this point, is that uraj hasn't voted for ralphm, and ralphm hasn't voted for uraj. And no-one else has indicated leanings.

If I had to vote at this time, it'd be for uraj.

I indicated pretty specifically that ralphmerridew is top of my suspect list early on, and I still feel that way.

Obviously it isn't in the town's best interest to vote, so you saying that it is interesting that no one is voting, is interesting in itself.

Could it be that neither of them is scum? Is Talitha subconsciously pushing for us to hurry a vote knowing we aren't hitting scum? Or was that just a fluff post to show that she is still here?

I'm afraid all of this attention on Uraj45 and ralphmerridew is diverting us from alternate scenarios.

[ralphmerridew]

The usual interpretation of godfather immunity and the like is "any cop investigating you will get the same result he would get investigating a townie. And I have seen roles with completely useless clauses before.

I remember one mini where the GF was told he had investigation and nightkill immunity, even though there was only one family and no vig (done to keep the scum nervous).

In another mini there were two families; in one family it mattered who made the kill (one member was a sharpshooter who could kill despite certain protections; in the other family the GF was protected from certain attacks. There weren't any roleblockers or trackers, so it didn't matter who performed the kill in the latter family, but the mod had both families name somebody as killer.

And I was planning out a game at one point with a sane/naive investigator who was searching for a particular SK (who, as it happens, wasn't a role), and a doc who blocked drive-by shootings (even though nobody performed drive-bys).

There's also the fact that roleblocker and role-name cop can prove their abilities; while I don't claim that there's a 1-1 correspondence of useful town cops to useful village cops, I do claim that the village would have something fairly good to balance out a second useful cop, and I don't see it.

[Talitha]

Obviously it isn't in the town's best interest to vote, so you saying that it is interesting that no one is voting, is interesting in itself.

Could it be that neither of them is scum? Is Talitha subconsciously pushing for us to hurry a vote knowing we aren't hitting scum? Or was that just a fluff post to show that she is still here?

You're joking right? Here we have Uraj saying unequivocally that ralphm is scum claiming that he is an insane cop. If this was true I would definitely expect it to be followed up with a vote.

On the other hand we have ralphm who, if he happens to be innocent, must know for a fact that Uraj is lying. Again, the standard reaction here would be to vote for the person that you are convinced is scum.

I'm not trying to rush anything. If I were, I would've voted myself. I am noting, however, that the behaviour of both of them is strange to me. They're both hanging back and waiting, when they supposedly both

know

that the other is scum? Something is off.

[Talitha]

And I said that nobody else had

indicated leanings

... I don't see how wanting people to discuss the situation could be considered pushing them to vote. It was a push for people to post their opinions, yes.

[Fishbulb]

I'm just trying to analyze everyone and not just the two in the spotlight. Mostly because while one of them is likely scum, so is someone else here and if we ignore that we will have less information to work with tomorrow.

Also, your fluff post, and these recent posts, completely ignore my comment about being most suspicious of ralphmerridew. Considering your mention of most likely to vote for Uraj45, that is definitely interesting to note.

I still stand by my suspicions on ralphmerridew and extend it to include Talitha as possible scum as well.

I guess it's time for me to re-read some and see if that really fits, or if it's just my usual suspicious nature taking over again.

[Norinel]

No votes yet. Don't make me deadline.

[Talitha]

Is there any chance there is only one scum left? Just looking at the setup, the Town town seems like it might be weaker than the Village town. Ie, only 2 masons over here, no sane cops, the vig was only a one-shot.

If there's only 1 left then I think it

has

to be Uraj or ralphm. I'm still weirded out by the fact that they're not voting, but maybe that's just me.
So if there's only 1 left, lynching one today, and the other tomorrow if the game is still going, should win it for the town.

If there's 2 left then that changes things considerably. Excluding any funny mason business, it's ralphm & Fishbulb, or Uraj & Fishbulb, or ralphm & uraj. I think ralphm & uraj is quite unlikely, but I'll kick myself later if this is some double bluff.

I don't really believe Uraj's cop claim. If we've got 2 scum left it seems too convenient that he got an innocent result today. So the Uraj/Fishbulb pair is looking most likely to me.

So taking into account both possibilities (one scum left or two) it looks to me like a Uraj vote is the best bet.

I'll be voting him shortly unless anyone wants to attempt to sway me, or point out something obvious that I've missed.

[Fishbulb]

Well, the way I look at it, if we follow your Uraj45 plan, and you're wrong, the game is over. It's a pretty big risk.

However, after reading the thread again, I'm starting to trust you a little more. Nothing stood out as being particularly suspicious, and the nurse claim is probable.

That leaves me with the possibility that you were wrong about having two scum left like you mentioned earlier in the thread. That's what initially raised a flag for me because how would you know that there were two left? I had been assuming one. If there is only one, then Uraj45

is

a likely candidate. I still find ralphmerridew more suspicious, but Uraj45 is probably the better lynch in the situation.

But please, others, really think about this. I have a history of falling for Talitha's lies way too much. What can I say? It's the accent.

[ralphmerridew]

Something I find helpful in mafia is to look over each player, and imagine "What would X do if X were pro-town / anti-town?", then compare that to what they did do. When somebody acts consistent with town or inconsistent with mafia, it could go either way (scum do pretend to be town). When somebody acts consistent with mafia, it's a weak scum signal; when somebody acts inconsistent with town, it's a strong scum signal.

Basic assumptions that I think everyone will agree with:

1) Anyone pro-town will tell the truth, to the extent of his/her knowledge. Anti-town may tell the truth or lie as they choose.
2) The roles are fairly normal. (In particular, there are no random cops, no scum who appears pro-town when dead, no second pro-town character who appears guilty to investigation, and no second investigation-immune role in a scum family.)
3) There are at most two scum left (or the game would be over), and probably two scum, for balance / symmetry reasons.

i) MoS is definitely a mason. (Confirmed by the mod and Mgm)
ii) Uraj claimed to be an insane cop. (From post 1135: N2 Fishbulb guilty, N3 PB guilty; from today: N5 rm good)
Note: claimed investigation of Fishbulb was while Nanook was alive. Even if GF-immunity were passed on, Fishbulb wouldn't have it yet.
iii) Fishbulb and rm claimed townie.
iv) Talitha claimed nurse.
v) PeaceBringer was pro-town.

Now, assuming the scum are limited to Fishbulb, rm, Talitha, Uraj and there are at most 2 scum has possibilities:
Fishbulb (ruled out by ii)
rm
Talitha (ruled out by ii)
Uraj
Fishbulb & rm (ruled out by ii)
Fishbulb & Talitha (ruled out by ii)
Fishbulb & Uraj
rm & Talitha
rm & Uraj
Talitha & Uraj

or R U FU RT RU TU

What would a pro-town Fishbulb do in this situation?
Fishbulb culd rule out FU, leaving R, U, RT, RU, TU.
He wouldn't have any clear idea of who is scum.

What did Fishbulb do?
He has said that he's not sure who to vote for.

CONSISTENT


What would a pro-town rm do in this situation?
I can rule out cases R, RT, RU, leaving U, FU, TU. In any case, I can be sure that Uraj is scum, but I can't be sure who is scum with him.

What did I do?
I've said that Uraj is scum, and haven't expressed an opinion who else is scum.

CONSISTENT


What would a pro-town Talitha do in this situation?
She could rule out RT and TU, leaving R, U, FU, TU, and deduce that Uraj is almost certainly scum, and if he isn't, then rm is the last scum (meaning that the town could safely lynch Uraj and then lynch rm if Uraj isn't scum. She should therefore favor an Uraj lynch.

What did Talitha do?

Post 1222: Talitha asks for Uraj's previous results.
Post 1223: I repost 1135

Is there any chance there is only one scum left? Just looking at the setup, the Town town seems like it might be weaker than the Village town. Ie, only 2 masons over here, no sane cops, the vig was only a one-shot.

If there's only 1 left then I think it has to be Uraj or ralphm. I'm still weirded out by the fact that they're not voting, but maybe that's just me.
So if there's only 1 left, lynching one today, and the other tomorrow if the game is still going, should win it for the town.

If there's 2 left then that changes things considerably. Excluding any funny mason business, it's ralphm & Fishbulb, or Uraj & Fishbulb, or ralphm & uraj. I think ralphm & uraj is quite unlikely, but I'll kick myself later if this is some double bluff.

I don't really believe Uraj's cop claim. If we've got 2 scum left it seems too convenient that he got an innocent result today. So the Uraj/Fishbulb pair is looking most likely to me.

So taking into account both possibilities (one scum left or two) it looks to me like a Uraj vote is the best bet.

I'll be voting him shortly unless anyone wants to attempt to sway me, or point out something obvious that I've missed.

Ostensibly, she's favoring a vote for Uraj. But what does she do:
Paragraphs 1 and 2: She tries to support a single-scum hypothesis (the only possibility on my list where Uraj is pro-town, and the situation where the town is least careful about the lynch), and calls attention to the fact that Uraj and I aren't voting for each other (suggests RU).
Paragraph 3: She lists the cases, but includes FR, in spite of the fact that it's inconsistent with Uraj's results that SHE ASKED FOR on the previous page.

Within the area she has to argue, she does everything she can to suggest against an Uraj lynch (in particular, to push for an rm lynch).

SEMI-CONSISTENT



What would a pro-town Uraj do in this situation?
He could rule out U, FU, RU, TU, leaving R and RT. He could concluded that rm is scum, and that if there is another scum, it is Talitha.

What did Uraj do?

Alright, looks like it is indeed that time.
I'm a cop. My choices (as well as those of my replacement/replacee) have been as follows:
Night 1: Investigate Talitha. No result
Night 2: Investigate Fishbulb. Guilty
Night 3: Investigate Peacebringer. Guilty
Night 4: Didn't get my choice in on time so it was invalidated.
Not very useful, unfortunately, except to indicate the village counterpart.

Well I can tell you who the lest of the mafia is.
*points to ralphmerridew*
I got innocent on him, therefore he's guilty.
Not voting yet though. Want to hear a bit.

Uraj says rm is last mafia.

My primary reason for not voting at this point is because I still want discussion and I want to figure more out about the second scum that is probably lurking around somewhere. (snip)

Uraj says rm and somebody else is scum. (R, FR, or RT)

Why does Uraj need any more information to identify the other scum? If he's scum,

Cops who are unsure of their sanity remember their results.
Cops who are sure they are useful ABSOLUTELY remember their results.

INCONSISTENT.




After that, Talitha and Uraj are the most suspicious characters. Suppose they are scum, and consider their actions in that light.

What would Talitha do in that case? She'd have to know that an MoS lynch is out of the question, and a Fishbulb lynch today is unlikely. (I'd go for Uraj instead, and MoS probably wouldn't either.) The only viable alternative to an Uraj lynch today is an rm lynch, and she has done everything to keep that option open / leave holes in her argument for Uraj to poke at while not appearing to push for it.

CONSISTENT

What would Uraj do in that case? Lynching MoS is out of the question, and a Fishbulb lynch would be difficult (he'd have to claim paranoid). Pushing for an rm lynch by claiming an "insane innocent" result on me is best. He starts with "rm is lest (sic) scum" (town is not at lynch-or-lose). When that doesn't work, he moves to "rm and someone else", ignoring the fact that his results point to Talitha being said other scum.

CONSISTENT


Individually, Talitha and Uraj have acted inconsistent with the assumption of pro-town-ness. Considered together, their deviations have been aimed to protect each other. Talitha and Uraj are the last two scum.

Tally, Uraj, would you care to defend yourselves?

[Talitha]

RM - Your assumptions on what people would do as pro-town/anti-town whatever rely on people to be:
- paying attention
- thinking logically

[Uraj45]

There's an assumption you forgot on your list. That's
All players awware of all the assumptions listed.
Most notably, I was not aware of the confirmed Mason assumption. I'll admit that I didn't give enough attention to this game at first(the time when i replaced). I came in at night, so Day caught me off guard(which was also the cause of my late night choice i might add.)I saw the mod-error, but didn't realize the implications of it until now and didn't give it much thought. I also never saw MGM's confirmation of MoS and I don't have time to look for it now. Today also happens to be the first point where i had to do any real thinking this game. My (correct) suspicion of you was more of a hunch thing.
It's very easy to screw with a list such as RM's. As I pointed out, RM's assumption exclusion was one way. Another was something like this

Cops who are unsure of their sanity remember their results.
Cops who are sure they are useful ABSOLUTELY remember their results.

which is BS. This is an assumption that I have seen negated in many games. I constantly have to check my pms for old information( these things are long remember!) and two of the investigations weren't even mine. All I had to do to them was transport info from one place to another. Any assumption of human behaviour is doomed to failure.
Let's take a look at this. Let's assume that all players assume all asumptions stated in rm's post as well as the following: Due to the imbalance it would create between village and town, Uraj and Talitha cannot both be scum and cannot both be townies.
Using this logic, RM could eliminate UT and thus know that Uraj's partner was was fishbulb. What did he do? He advocated the exact opposite, pinning out Uraj and Talitha as the two most likely candidates.
INCONSISTENT
Logical right?
No, it's crap. I know for a faact that ralphm didn't use that logic because we still disagree on the point.
We can, however, still reach the conclusion that UT should be eliminated. The assumption that we would have to make is: One townie and only one townine is scum. That was an argument from yesterday and I think it was logical and should be carried out. So that means one of [Fishbulb vs RM] is scum and by the fact of what that leaves over, one of [Uraj vs. Talitha] is scum.
in particular, that lets us eliminate UT leaving

Fishbulb & Uraj
rm & Talitha
rm & Uraj
Which tells us the following: If Fishbulb is innocent, rm is scum. If Talitha is innocent Uraj is scum. If rm is innocent Fishbulb is scum. If Uraj is innocent, rm AND Talitha are scum.
So does that leave us, as a whole, with a conclusion? Yes. Here it is.
If all of rm's assumptions are true and one and only one claimed townie is scum then:
Either rm is scum or both Uraj and Fishbulb are scum.
Thanks for helping me sort stuff out rm. I wouldn't have figured out Talitha without your help(well maybe eventually. Who knows how observant I really am)

Vote RM

[Uraj45]

Oh and i'm not going to be around from monday and wedensday.Please don't lynch in the meantime.

[Talitha]

I've tried a couple of times now to make sense of the long posts of uraj & ralphm, but it's not happening for me. I have the attention-span of a goldfish right now.

I notice that both uraj and ralphm are now saying that I'm scum, due to their own attempts at logic based on their ideas of game balance or consistency. If it wasn't completely insane play, I'd say they're both scum.

MoS, I would really value your input, as you are only one I trust at all in this game.

[ralphmerridew]

Uraj: Cop claims/investigations are probably the most unambiguous kind of information on living players the participants can get in a mafia game. Everyone can agree on exactly whether or not a set of role assignments is possible, given a set of claimed investigations. (Watch a dethwing or groza classic game to see how the town can assemble multiple levels of investigation.) The logic I gave above is about as simple as cop logic gets. (The only judgement call I used in the parts of what various players should be able to conclude are the general rules (which usually go without saying), and my suggestion that there are probably two scum left (which isn't essential to any other part of my argument).)

By contrast, balance is an intrinsicly fuzzy concept. The usefulness of various roles with respect to each other, which side the role distribution in a game favors, whether or not a particular setup can be made closer to even, are all debateable questions and subject to judgment. And not just "Is a game balanced?" but "Would the mod think this is balanced?" And inter-game balance is easily tipped. (For example, had Fishbulb been a regular werewolf and not an alpha, then it would be possible that PB was the alpha and ww was sane, or that the town had an additional useful cop to compensate for a godfather, or that the village had four scum, against the town three scum, one of whom is a GF.) Balance simply isn't precise enough to be able to surgically decide which of Talitha / Fishbulb was scum.

Talitha: You should be voting for Uraj. If you are pro-town, then either Uraj is scum, or rm is the only scum. (If you and Uraj are both good, then Fishbulb is good by Uraj's investigations, and MoS is good by masonhood.) Therefore, lynching Uraj today is a dominant strategy for a pro-town Talitha (either he is scum, or the town is certain to lynch last scum rm tomorrow).

[Norinel]

MoS has returned and Fishbulb is posting regularly, just not here. Prodding both.

Oh my, a vote!

Vote Count

ralphmerridew- 1 (Uraj45)

Not voting (4): Mastermind of Sin, ralphmerridew, Talitha, Uraj45

[Mastermind of Sin]

uraj is voting, not fishbulb.

I'm not sure what to think. RM makes the most sense right now, though. Sorry about the inactivity, I've been a little busy.

[Fishbulb]

I'm reading regularly, just didn't have a clue what to say.

I think ralphmerridew makes a lot of sense, but that doesn't mean he's not scum. Currently, I'm trying to figure out if there's a scenario that he's missing (either because he overlooked it, or because he doesn't want us to think about it).

[Uraj45]

RM, player behaviour is just as fuzzy a thing as game balance and you know it. The player who makes the logical move is not always innocnet and the player making the illogical one is not always scum.
This game is fuzzy. It always has been and always will be. You can't mathematically determine who is scum using

anything

short of a guaranteed cop investigation.
Both of you, MoS and Fishbulb, have informaation that you need to make an informed choice as to who is scum here. And yet you haven't. Why is that?
Because the choice is difficult clearly. Mafia is a game and nobody ever said it was an easy one. Yes, if I had gone over all of my info and matched it up with the list every step a long the way, then yes, I should have figured out that Talitha was scum. But I didn't. I got caught up in the one piece of information I was sure of. The easier one. Bad play, yes. But it's certainly not one that wouldn't be repeated by many pro-towns.
Also, I would like you to keep in mind that RM's initial argument against me was based on game balance, and now he's gone back and lessened its importance once I came up with a scenario that refuted his own. He's using whatever arguments he can pull out of the air to convince you to lynch me.

[Talitha]

I'll put a vote on tomorrow.

[ralphmerridew]

My argument against Uraj and Talitha was that they overlooked a straightforward, purlely logical argument as to for whom Uraj / Talitha should vote, they both completely overlooked it, so they are probably scum.

Uraj countered that there was a fuzzy, balance based argument as to for whom ralphmerridew should vote, than he overlooked it and voted for somebody else, so ralphmerridew is probably scum.

Notice the difference between our two first steps. Overlooking a rigorous argument is a strong sign, while overlooking a fuzzy one is meaningless.

[Norinel]

uraj is voting, not fishbulb.

Corrected.

And with this post, I sandwich-post the entire Town playership, all exactly once! How cool is that?

[Uraj45]

Look at my post again ralphm because you clearly didn't get any of it, or just didn't care to respons. would you like to now?

[Talitha]

Damn, I just read over Day 1 again trying to get a better handle on ralphm and uraj, but the only thing I achieved was reliving the excrutiating agony of getting lynched.

So I'll go with the pairing up logic...

If uraj is town, then so is Fishbulb. That leaves rm as solitary scum.

If rm is town, uraj could be solitary scum, or uraj & fishbulb could be scum together.

vote: uraj

If he is innocent, lynching ralphm tomorrow should win it for the town. If he's guilty and the game doesnt end, Fishbulb is the other scum.