Stars Aligned - GAME OVER

[SlySly]

The guy you found blood on. Are you sure you're bloody, Looker? Or was it just the PM stating that Pablo was bloody?

You trying to give Looker an out? I see he took it.

[Looker]

Hey, mister, what are you trying to imply?

[Chaco]

Not helpful.

[Looker]

O, well this'll be downright detrimental.

[Sarag]

The guy you found blood on. Are you sure you're bloody, Looker? Or was it just the PM stating that Pablo was bloody?

You trying to give Looker an out? I see he took it.

I didn't just make up that scenario, I got it from Looker's post after semioldguy questioned him about blood:

@darkwing: It said that blood was everywhere, so I assumed that meant on me, too.

I also got the message that blood was everywhere when I investigated semioldguy, so that's why I think he isn't actually bloody.

(I know we're not supposed to use flavour text to clear people, but Looker wasn't deliberately trying to do that, so I hope my saying this is ok.)

[Sarag]

Looker, you still need to explain yourself. I think a full action / equipment / insanity / blood claim would be appropriate.

[Percy]

Vote Count

Looker - 5 (CSL, Nachomamma8, SlySly, ryan2754, Sajin)

Kise - 1 (Furpants_Tom)
semioldguy - 1 (Kise)
No Lynch - 1 (Datadanne)

Not Voting - 7 (Looker, Sarag, Magua, Pablo Molinero, semioldguy, ZykeZero, Chaco)

Deadline

:

Midday on Saturday the 31st of October AEST (9pm Friday site time)

.

V/LA

: Kise

Re-prodding

: ZykeZero

Replacing

: Magua

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

Reminder:

If you performed a Night Action, I will have sent you some flavour with your result. I will continue to do so, for your reading pleasure, because I love you.

Any attempt to confirm claims using this flavour is

strictly forbidden

.

[CSL]

The deadline is swiftly approaching us...

[Furpants_Tom]

Either looker is doing a brilliant job of playing confused, or he's just genuinely hapless. My opinion is still the latter, and I'm not sold on this plan.

[Sarag]

I agree. Pressure is all well and good, but I do not think we should lynch Looker.

@everyone voting Looker - If you think he is a cultist, explain how it makes sense for him to have (correctly) claimed blood on Pablo. If you don't think he is a cultist, why are you voting for him?

[Sarag]

ZykeZero, Pablo, are you guys still around?

[Sarag]

Ok I'm going to put my vote somewhere a bit more useful.

Vote: CSL

Day 2 Cass claimed to have warded Magua, but Magua was off warding someone else so it failed. It could be true, but it was also a safe thing for a cultist to claim, especially since Cass mentioned it after Magua had already claimed.

Also, Cass volunteered to rob KoC's grave. Not anyone's grave, but KoC's specifically. It's not an appealing choice for an investigator because he was unlikely to have any useful gear. That is unless you're his cult-buddy, in which case robbing the grave is a great way to retrieve fetishes (perhaps multiple fetishes for only one action), something we suspect the cult have been a bit short on for a while.

I had some other suspicions of her on day 2 but they were fairly mild.

It's not the strongest case, but it's the best thing I can see at the moment.

[Pablo Molinero]

Right, back from the weekend and here to catch up. We finally got votes?

[Pablo Molinero]

Yeah, I think looker is more hapless to the game mechanics than anything. After all, he did get a correct bloody result on me last night. What gain does cult or murders get from doing that?

[Pablo Molinero]

In fact, he seems like the "easy" lynch. Is there anyone on his wagon with claims that don't add up or are easy to fake?

[Magua]

Magua is done flaking.

Since I've got a hatred of "here, rereading" posts, I took the liberty of actual rereading before posting. Thoughts:

#1. My spreadsheet skills suck. Twice I thought I found a discrepancy in claims, and twice when I doublechecked the referenced posts, realized I had entered incorrect data.

#2: Slysly asks me to explain why I think semioldguy is cleared. To explain this, I have to explain why I think there's only one anti-town faction left.

a. Who has been murdered?
i. Tuberkulos (murdered n1 by dramonic, deceased)
ii. Mastin (murdered n1, probably by Drench, deceased)
iii. zwetschenwasser (murdered n1)
iv. DeathNote (murdered n2 by datadanne)
v. nhammen (murdered n2)

Who are the murderers?
i. Drench, ritualed d1 probably murdered (Mastin n1)
i. Knight of Cydonia, modkilled d2 (could not have murdered anyone, 1 insanity)
ii. chenhsi, lynched d2
iii. DeathNote, murdered n2
iv. Dramonic, lynched d3 (murdered Tuberkulos n1)

Now, Drench murdering Mastin *is* an assumption, but given d1 interaction and the fact that Drench died with two insanity, it seems a safe one.

So that leaves two murderers with 2+ insanity, and two people who were murdered. I am willing to conclude that chenhsi murdered zwetschenwasser, and that DeathNote murdered nhammen. I have no proof for these, but it matches up.

So, what about other murderers? There's fifteen of us now, so if a murderer had to start from scratch, assuming one lynch a day and a kill every night (one from the murderer, one from the cult), the murderer would win just before 3-way lylo. This is assuming that the murderer's targets are never warded, never resuscitated, that the murderer doesn't launder, isn't called upon to rob graves, etc. *Any* of those things occurring means that a murderer can't win, really.

Datadanne could be a murderer requiring only two more kills; alternatively, there may be other murderers who "piggybacked" on a kill (this could be possible with zwetschenwasser). The problem with this theory is that there simply aren't that many people who an insanity claim of 2+, and once you subtract out easily verifiable grave robbing, *no one* aside from Datadanne could have stalked and murdered.

So I do not believe any piggybacking went on, *unless* someone is lying about their insanity. If they're lying about their insanity, research should pick it up, so it's a big gamble that they'd be able to go 3-4 more days without anyone picking up on the disconnect.

I'm not buying it.

Therefore, I think that either there's cult left *or* murderer left, or perhaps cult turned murderer. Either way, an attempted kill from the antitown faction would be equivalent to clearing.

tl;dr:
1) If semioldguy was not actually resuscitated, that makes cult semioldguy + Pablo + Sajin. This would be an "all the eggs in one basket" type thing; the part that doesn't fit would be Sajin's late claim to have resuscitated semioldguy in 1563 -- if they were all in cahoots together, there'd be no reason for him to do that.
2) If semioldguy were actually resuscitated, I believe he's clear. The only thing that'll cause me to reevaluate this is if we subsequently see *both* ritual killings and murders.
3) If semioldguy were actually resuscitated, at least one of Pablo + Sajin are clear.

Due to my chosen insanities, I shan't vote at the moment, but I'll outline my FoSes and my anti-FoSes:

FoS:
Kise - general uselessness
Looker - same, plus scummy reports. However, I don't see claiming a bloody result on someone else to be a scummove or murderer move; it's too dicey. So I'm willing to let Looker slide for today.
Sajin: Sajin's late claim of saving semioldguy seems too...convenient...an excuse to not have to have equipment, and to have blood. Pablo claimed the save two days before Sajin, and Pablo likewise confirms it before Sajin claims.
Chaco: Increase in posting from Jebus is good, getting a verified insanity researched would be great. Until that time, suspicious.

Anti-FoSes:
semioldguy: As explained above.
Pablo Molinero: As a group, I believe that (at least) one of Pablo + Sajin has to be townie, unless it turns out to be semioldguy + Sajin + Pablo as cult. Of the two, I trust Pablo due to my research than I trust Sajin.

Randoms:
Slysly: His predecessor stalked zwetschenwasser either n0 or n1 (as per post 1679). Need some way of proving that the insanity taken was Aversion, and not, say, Psychopathy. Still, assuming the 1 insanity claim is legit, not a murderer. Generally argumentative, seems to try to sow doubt. May just be overly cautious townie.
CSL: No noise or insanity claim that I saw.
Furpants_Tom: No noise or insanity claim that I saw.
Nachomamma: Quick to vote me for flaking, when there are those who've flaked longer (CSL, for instance).

I would like to lynch Kise today.
I would like Pablo to research either Nachomamma or Chaco tonight to validate their 0-insanity claims.

[CSL]

@ Sarag: I'm not looking to lynch looker, I'm just applying some pressure. If looker gets too close to L-1, I'm unvoting.

[Chaco]

Do investigations work like wards? So I couldn't investigate tonight, if I was going to be investigated so it would go through? Or what?

[ryan2754]

Magua, do you want Pablo in particular to researchone of those two or anyone?

[semioldguy]

@ryan2754
It would need to be someone who doesn't have any insanities in order to verify the insanity count.

I don't plan on using Launder tonight. If I intended to do that, I would have chosen compulsion as my insanity when I found out I was resuscitated. I figure I don't have much time left and cleaning myself won't do me any good if I am just killed or saved from a kill, both of which seem to be the most likely possibilities compared to not being targeted.

In thinking about it, Looker is likely town unless he is scum with Pablo Molinero or a cultist with Forensic Tools and a successful shot in the dark investigation, both of which don't seem particularly likely (though you should ask the Mod whether or not you are actually bloody or not and get back to us on that asap). He should probably be forced to rob the grave tonight if he isn't lynched so that his cleanliness can be confirmed. The Looker wagon was really easy to get on and a lot of the players on it are ones that I've had more suspicion of. Almost all of those who I regard as the most likely town players were not making moves to vote Looker.

Traditional scum hunting still applies to this game in many cases, and wagon evaluation is one of them. For those of you making excuses about the theme for lack of your scum-hunting, there are recent events to look at which don't directly involve theme. Don't be content to sit back.

[SlySly]

To explain this, I have to explain why I think there's only one anti-town faction left.

Do you think KoC was being truthful before he got himself booted?

[Kise]

Cool. Magua is back.





*twitch*

[SlySly]

Cool. Magua is back.

What you so happy about? He is wanting to lynch you!

[SlySly]

Oh, btw,

unvote

.

The bloodiness, or lack thereof, has been explained.

[Magua]

@ Sarag: I'm not looking to lynch looker, I'm just applying some pressure. If looker gets too close to L-1, I'm unvoting.

Saying a vote is a pressure vote negates any pressure, IMO.

Do investigations work like wards? So I couldn't investigate tonight, if I was going to be investigated so it would go through? Or what?

Investigations are independent. You can investigate someone while you yourself are being investigated without any problem.

Magua, do you want Pablo in particular to researchone of those two or anyone?"

I'm not trying to boss Pablo around; I'm just pointing out that he's the only one I trust who can verify that one of those two does indeed only have 0 insanity.

The other option would be to get them to gain insanity in some verifiable form (that is, grave robbing).

Do you think KoC was being truthful before he got himself booted?

Let's recheck what KoC said:

I have checked with the mod, and this is indeed true. A murderer can win, THEN the town can win.
I am a Murderer. I gained the insanity from running the Ritual on Drench last night. That's right, I'm an ex-cult Murderer. I will give the town the remaining cult members, then simply no-lynch, keep me alive with res-kits/wards (which I think you can alternate on me each night), let me kill 1 townie, and then the 2 remaining cult(zwet and Mastin were cultists, btw), and both I and the town win.
What say you?

Known facts:
* KoC *was* a murderer.
* Zwetschenwasser *was* a cultist.
* Mastin *was* a cultist.

So, yes, I think he was being truthful, and was mistaken about the murderer win condition.

Actually, rereading this, I think what happened was that KoC received his PM d2, saw that in addition to his bussing of his buddy d1, two of his partners had been killed n1, and decided that it would be easier to win as a murderer than as a cultist.

In general:

I would very much like Looker to PM the mod about his bloody state, and get back to us. If he's bloody, I think he should be lynched. If he's not bloody, I think semioldguy's plan of having him rob the grave tonight and someone investigating him is a good plan.

I'm not too quick to dismiss the bandwagon as scummy, though -- so far, our bandwagons have given us a cultist (EriktheRed), a murderer (chenhsi), and a murderer (dramonic).