Newbie 843 (Game Over)

[Meji Fan]

crazypianist did also seem to focus on tubby later, but crazy also seemed to like cookie to. I dont see any huge similarities. Actually, I dont have much read on crazy at all

I am pondering Kyiv's posts

[Ojanen]

Ok, I've read D1 in detail, skimmed a couple of pages of D2 and getting sick of reading for now. The game is pretty messy. I'll get some opinions out from things until about page 12 now, and comment more/read the rest when I have free later today.
Also, since I seem to have had an aggressive wagon, even if you want to lynch me,

give me a chance to respond to everything

first. I'm gonna address all that is asked from me, and I want to get my reads out as clearly as possible.

From D1, I get scumvibes from someone who hasn't been in the limelight much at all, namely

ZACH

.

Early on I started noticing how there's a notable lack of stances in his commentary. His posts very very much lack drive.
Most of his content is on a lame theory-bordering discussion about the benefits and drawbacks of the communication of one's suspicions (LoSses and whatnot). This is not scumhunting, theory discussion is something you can talk pretty alignment indepently safely on.

He keeps his random vote on until 5 days before deadline, page 7. I feel this is significant.

All he ever says directly from any of the players:

Well this post is just odd. It's going to be interesting analyzing your voting patterns as the day goes forward I reckon.

(notice the vagueness here too)

I'm not liking how Wraithofshadow's suspicions of etherealcookie just seemed to spring up out of thin air after ethereal voted him.

I don't really see any problem with Manho's Wraith vote. I can understand the reasoning for it and his vote for Tubby was much earlier in the game.

Unvote, Vote: Wraith

Not wanting people to do scumlists is a style of play that tends to stifle scumhunting and is an anti-town position. Sure, the scum could take advantage of information we discuss, but scum have the advantage anyway. Discussion is vital to the town's success, and scumlists are one of the best ways a lot of players find to communicate their stances.
I am also disliking how suddenly suspicious he became of ethereal only after Ethereal voted for him. I'd be interested to know what Wraith thought of Ethereal before Ethereal voted for him, but that presents the problem of whether I could take Wraith at his word for it.

First part of the vote reason is PURELY theoritical disagreement. Plus Zach has been incredibly tightlipped on stances on players. I feel a bunch of hypocracy.
Second part is repeating stuff from others and himself before. Also, last sentence highly illogical. Ethereal voted Wrath at the same time he posted his first content posts. No way to give an opinion before that. Predecessor never provided any real content.
Plus, the voting timing is "delayed" - it doesn't really reflect a reaction to Wrath's play, he's noted these things earlier. He just suddenly decides to move his vote based on stuff that have not even prompted him to move his random vote at the time it happened. The signal I would be guessing right now is suspicion on manho but more on that later.

I'm not sure how well I'm communicating right now - in a bit of a hurry - and if this is convincing to you, but this kind of vagueness is one of the best scumtells I've found to work.

manho is super duper opportunistic. more later.
tubby has a godawful playstyle and commits a lot of scumtells. I do not find tubby hellishly suspicious for that hammer at all though when it was quite near deadline. There were others just shaping up to do it, and it drew a helluva lot of attention to him unnecessarily.
Meji fan I found myself agreeing a lotlot along the way, good points. Wasn't crazy on some of the wagoning timings. Mixed, but on the townish side.
EC is intensive and doesn't mind looking bad when urges people to find scum on D1 lynch wagon. Somewhat townish. (yippee for this comment for the people who think we have a connection.)
crazypianist lurks a lot, but isn't opportunistic at all.
Soyasushi looks genuine and seems to actually ponder the game. townish. She also tunnels on my slot pretty intensively.
@Soyasushi, can you please repeat the probems you've had with my slot? I think I can address some of that stuff.
@Zach, please link several ended games of yours as towna dn as scum.

[Ojanen]

Ugh. Working on a post. Really painful to read day 2 tbh. A lot of wrath and insults, many of which are most likely town-town to me atm.

[Ojanen]

This post will be centered on

MANHO

.

Manho is a pathological opportunist in this game, and after reading today, it's hard to decide which of Zach and manho I find more suspicious.

His first vote on tubby is a semi-serious stage sheep of Meji.

His second vote on Wrath is wagoning after Ethereal's case, in a situation where Zach and Meji have also just stated suspicion on Wrath. Manho has not stated previous Wrath suspicion.

A few days before deadline he also responds to the floating suspicion of my slot when Soyasyshi talks about it. Manho had not stated previous suspicion on my slot (notice a reactive trend?), in fact at the time of the original early posts that are under suspect he said first

starting the discussion is always pro-town. the smileys thing is really interesting and need more reseach.

and then didn't comment on the rest of the accusations at all.
The new conclusion just before deadline that I totally look like newbie scum

but my vote will still on wrath for now. and bjl need to post more, with content.

just looks like groundwork on setting up the next vote.

D2 manho first thinks:

congratulating the doctor is always a scum tell, may be a small one though. may be fishing the doc claim, or building up a later doc claim.

will examine the wrath lynch tommorrow

. it's 2:30 am. really need a sleep.

Examination of wrath lynch never comes.
Instead, after universal heat on beginning of D2 on my slot+Cookie, surprise surprise manho echoes everyone:

cookie and bjl are likely to be the two scum. let's see their ISO.

The iso work is bloody murderously terrible. Seriously.Read it.
For example, point no.5 from my slot: my first incarnation says there's the feature where you can read a single players all posts in iso, and Cookie replies he didn't know and that's useful.
=>manho deems this to be a serious scummy interaction and connection. Yes, really. I'm not kidding.
Continuous trend of trying to show everything in worst light possible i the style of the previous point.
First 3 content posts from my slot he finds scumtells from now, although not at the time (original only comment was the "discussion is good, smileys interesting" line).
Later, this

so now cookie is asking for replacements to help him and his scumbuddy out of trouble.

is anti-town. No matter who the person is, the role stays the same. It's always better to go off content than a flaker slot if you actually want to make the best decisions.
also,
in some of the zebra crossing fights with Cookie, manho says:

bjl is not voted for being useless. he is voted for the fishing, and it is a scum tell.

Great, except this is how big a tell manho originally thought the doc thing was:

congratulating the doctor is always a scum tell, may be a small one though.

setting up lynches has been mentioned:

@tubby, maybe we can lynch bjl today and cookie tomorrow.

Finally, we arrive to the conclusions of an opportunist:

@kyiv, read carefully and you will know why we are that sure for bjl and cookie being scum,

especially for yernab's game starting question, bjl's congratulating the doctor,

and cookie's twilight talk.

What certainty can be observed here.
But look where he started out on 2 of the 3 things:
game starting question:

starting the discussion is always pro-town. the smileys thing is really interesting and need more reseach.

doctor:

congratulating the doctor is always a scum tell, may be a small one though.

The dissonance is just painful.

Overall, I see the scum being among manho, Zach, Tubby with an outside chance of Meji.
I'll examine Tubby more next.
I'll also post my defence next, I think there's stuff to be said.

[Zachrulez]

If you want to read any of my completed games. I have them listed in my wiki. (It should be reasonably current.)

[Ojanen]

Mmmkay, it's not alignment sorted or with links but I'll dig from there then.
Also, regarding this could you tell which game(s) you were referencing?
Any comments on my thoughts?

[Zachrulez]

Mmmkay, it's not alignment sorted or with links but I'll dig from there then.
Also, regarding this could you tell which game(s) you were referencing?

Kinda put me on the spot as I was going off memory, but I did manage to locate at least one example. http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 25#1672825

Any comments on my thoughts?

Your thoughts on me specifically? Or your thoughts in general? On me, I don't think I've heard anything I haven't been accused of in the past. This game has been pretty slow paced and hard to get into, and with no one really pressing on my lack of activity until you have specifically now, it's been pretty easy for me to just coast by.

Regarding you and your predecessors, I'm actually reluctant to lynch your slot because of Cookie's blatant defending of you and his insistence that your slow will flip town. Others see this as a blatantly obvious connection, but aren't really considering the potential that cookie could be making you look like his scumbuddy.

As for the rest of it. I'll need to look at it more and think on it.

[Ojanen]

Even if we go with "just coasting", which I feel is not the case, that does not relate to your voting reasons stinking bad yesterday imo.
Also,
as far as I can see, your piece of argument against Cookie has been this:

Kay.
I just feel the need to point out you are wrong, you are looking at the wrong people, and I am pretty sure BJL will not flip scum. Once again, turn your attention the bandwagon, because that's where the scum lies. So. Bandwagon on bjl, if you must. We'll see where that leads.

which you said he's simultaneously disagreeing with the wagon and approving of it.
Which I think is a misrep. Cookie was getting absolutely hounded for defending me, I was drawing suspicion from everyone, he was pursuing other targets, what did you want him to do? Your concern seems based mostly on the semantic of the last 2 sentences.
Also, I'm quite sympathetic to townreads, I base a lot of my play around them. And looking for scum on the town lynch wagon is absolutely a good idea. And seeing how my wagon exploded in the beginning of D2, I don't find anything greatly unreasonable about cookie's actions.

So what's your case against Cookie besides those 2 points, and how do you disagree with me on them?

[Zachrulez]

Yeah... before you go preaching to me what a great idea it is to focus on the town lynch wagon... just keep in mind that Cookie was ON the town lynch wagon.

[manho]

His second vote on Wrath is wagoning after Ethereal's case, in a situation where Zach and Meji have also just stated suspicion on Wrath. Manho has not stated previous Wrath suspicion.

voting the 2nd vote with reasons is not wagoning.

A few days before deadline he also responds to the floating suspicion of my slot when Soyasyshi talks about it. Manho had not stated previous suspicion on my slot (notice a reactive trend?), in fact at the time of the original early posts that are under suspect he said first

starting the discussion is always pro-town. the smileys thing is really interesting and need more reseach.

and then didn't comment on the rest of the accusations at all.
The new conclusion just before deadline that I totally look like newbie scum

that happens when yernab ask for replacement when in trouble.

but my vote will still on wrath for now. and bjl need to post more, with content.

just looks like groundwork on setting up the next vote.

that happened when bjl replaced in and haven't said anything with content.

D2 manho first thinks:

congratulating the doctor is always a scum tell, may be a small one though. may be fishing the doc claim, or building up a later doc claim.

will examine the wrath lynch tommorrow

. it's 2:30 am. really need a sleep.

Examination of wrath lynch never comes.

i've forgotten it as we have obv scums in bjl and cookie.

Instead, after universal heat on beginning of D2 on my slot+Cookie, surprise surprise manho echoes everyone:

cookie and bjl are likely to be the two scum. let's see their ISO.

The iso work is bloody murderously terrible. Seriously.Read it.

let's see.

For example, point no.5 from my slot: my first incarnation says there's the feature where you can read a single players all posts in iso, and Cookie replies he didn't know and that's useful.
=>manho deems this to be a serious scummy interaction and connection. Yes, really. I'm not kidding.

i seriously think it is a scum interaction. scums usually avoid talking about scumhunting, as they don't scumhunt, so most of their conversation is game-unrelated things or bussing each other.

Continuous trend of trying to show everything in worst light possible i the style of the previous point.
First 3 content posts from my slot he finds scumtells from now, although not at the time (original only comment was the "discussion is good, smileys interesting" line).

yernab's or bjl's? i'm not close with the game, so i would miss out scum point easily, but you know, life is just busy.

Later, this

so now cookie is asking for replacements to help him and his scumbuddy out of trouble.

is anti-town. No matter who the person is, the role stays the same. It's always better to go off content than a flaker slot if you actually want to make the best decisions.

don't know what you mean here.

also,
in some of the zebra crossing fights with Cookie, manho says:

bjl is not voted for being useless. he is voted for the fishing, and it is a scum tell.

Great, except this is how big a tell manho originally thought the doc thing was:

congratulating the doctor is always a scum tell, may be a small one though.

congratulating the doctor is a small scum tell by itself, but with other post by bjl and cookie, it became fishing, which is a bih scum tell.

setting up lynches has been mentioned:

@tubby, maybe we can lynch bjl today and cookie tomorrow.

so what's wrong with setting up lynches on players i think is scum?

Finally, we arrive to the conclusions of an opportunist:

@kyiv, read carefully and you will know why we are that sure for bjl and cookie being scum,

especially for yernab's game starting question, bjl's congratulating the doctor,

and cookie's twilight talk.

What certainty can be observed here.
But look where he started out on 2 of the 3 things:
game starting question:

starting the discussion is always pro-town. the smileys thing is really interesting and need more reseach.

doctor:

congratulating the doctor is always a scum tell, may be a small one though.

The dissonance is just painful.

starting the discussion is always pro-town, congratulating the doctor is a small scum tell, and i still with it. but yernab start the discussion while trying to look pro-town and asking the "what would you do if you are scum" question is scummy. and bjl congratulating the doctor while fishing the power role makes a big scum tell.

[Ojanen]

Noting that the link really wasn't that applicable to Zach's thoughts re: this game since the mafia knew there that there is no doctor.

Yeah... before you go preaching to me what a great idea it is to focus on the town lynch wagon... just keep in mind that Cookie was ON the town lynch wagon.

Sure, he was the one that didn't coast and had initiative, which makes me like him on that wagon more than the others.
Quite extensive dodging of my other points there, especially since the reason I brought the wagon thing up was the plausibility of Cookie's read on me.
Is your case then based on Cookie being on the Wraith wagon?
Why was your Wraith vote not hypocritical and illogical as I currently claim?

manho reply will have to wait a sec.

[Ojanen]

But hey, at the meantime, manho, quote me the fishing. That should be easy right?
Where did my previous incarnation state anything else except that it seems much more likely that there is a doctor than that there isn't?
(which I btw agree on)
You're saying he implied somewhere that doc should come out, but certainly I can't find it.

[Zachrulez]

Obviously I don't see his read as plausibly as you do.

And no, it's not based on him being on the Wraith wagon. But it's a pretty bad basis for him to go after others because he was also on the wagon. It's also not good play not to look at the players who were not on the wagon because scum can also deliberately avoid lynching wagons. There are cases when actions need to be taken into account more than who was on what bandwagon. It's a good starting place, but a narrow minded view of the game as a whole. Mafia can be, and is more complex than that.

I don't really see how my vote was illogical. Hypocritical? Maybe. Did I actively discourage discussion like Wraith did?

[EtherealCookie]

Hey guys.
I'm reading right now, give me a few hours or a few days, most likely the latter given I have free time during the weekend, and I'll post a bit more.

[Kyiv]

I don't have much to say about Zach... he's both been out of the spotlight until today. Rather I want to look at Yernab/bjl/Ojanen for the moment, which will involve Soyasushi's tunneling. Again, sorry about the tremendous length of this post. (This is why I split my scumhunting into two posts)

*Snipped intro*

So, in the interest of stimulating discussion, I'd like to ask a question that I'd always wanted to ask on the first day, but I never see it done.

If you were scum, who would you vote for?

I think it's a decent question because it adds an additional layer of subtext, and for scum it may prove somewhat more difficult to navigate. Now, if I were scum, with the limited information I currently have, I'd most likely vote for the most vocal person, so long as it doesn't put them at L-2 or higher - got to avoid suspicion, you know. The fact that the most vocal person has already voted for me cements it: I would probably vote for Soyasushi.

Now in reality, I would probably vote for one of the guys that haven't posted yet. People who don't post are generally below the radar of the lynching mob, at least on day one, and they may be trying to lay low until someone calls them out on their lurking. WrathofShadows, for instance, is someone I would conceivably vote for. However, I'm going to withhold my vote for now, as it's entirely possible he's just had a busy weekend, not unlike myself. =P

Anyway, c'mon - let's get talking and see if we can't dig up something.

A strange WIFOMy question, though largely harmless. On it's own, a null tell, but in context it got everybody out of RVS and start discussing, which is pro-town (And he states this as his intention).

So far, I have to say yernab continues to strike me as suspicious. He posts a long post about what he would do as scum but does the exact opposite, perhaps in hopes that it would throw suspicion off himself. After all, if someone were scum, he would be trying hard to do what his townie self would do. Your scum self and town self should have some sort of difference, but in yernab's case he showed them to be complete opposites, which strikes me as trying too hard to look town.

Then when attack, he got on the defensive, started using the "=P" smiley and went a bit omgus. Also, he's withholding his vote - because he's trying to see who he should vote for so as to not seem as suspicious?

I'm struggling between whether that's a newb town tell or a newb scum tell.

What was your initial suspicion? You mention that he continues to be suspicious, but you never mentioned any initial suspicions. Going defensive is a null tell at best, then he attacks him for the smiley, and then fabricates a third response. It's not OMGUS if he doesn't counter-vote him. It's nothing to vote him for, much less lynch him, which you can get away with since you were already voting him. For what reason, again?

Wow, really? Are smilies that big of a deal? Personally I don't see any way that the use of smilies could be seen as either town or mafia, and being friendly towards a person that just voted me isn't something I can really see as a scumtell, either. God forbid we actually try and have

fun

during this game, apparently. I suppose I'll play it safe and go into Vulcan-mode for the remainder of the day.

His smiley argument ends here.

While my initial post might (understandably) seem a bit odd to the more experienced players, I stand by it. Not necessarily for the content, but for starting the discussion that was so blatantly absent before my posting. I knew there would be a risk that I'd be under suspicion simply by making the first post of substance, and I bear the brunt of that suspicion now without too much complaint. I could have played it safe and lurked, or done single-line posts like david-villa has done. However, I felt that getting a discussion going, even if it does turn around on me would be pro-town any way you slice it.

So no, I don't mind suspicion based on the relatively weird, WIFOM-y original post I made. But c'mon guys, you're wasting time sleuthing about

smilies

? I don't see how that can help us at all, to be honest. Think about it.

First, he mentions that he is fine with taking the fall as long is it creates discussion. VERY pro-town. He isn't talking about smileys, he's talking about derailing conversation from scumhunting to smileys... an argument copied very quickly. At this point, Yernab is townie to me.

Chill, yernab. Why so desperate? You aren't the one under the most suspicion here, yet you are getting so desperately defensive. Are you trying to hide something?

She creates a false emotional reaction. She seems to believe that yernab is jumping off the walls at her, when he seems much calmer, moreso than her. Desperation? I didn't see any hint of it.

The smilies aren't exactly a tell, but it just gives me some sort of feeling. But that's not the main reason I'm voting for you. In your post, you tried to shift everyone's attention to how ridiculous my "smiley" argument is (even though it was just a one-liner in my post in the previous page), which also means you're trying to shift everyone's attention

away

from my main points.

No, the main reason you voted him was because he didn't respond in the first 2 days of the game, something three other people had done. He dedicated one paragraph to defending the smiley, then attacked people who tried to divert people's attention to smileys as it was silly. Not unlike your argument huh?

@crazypianist: We're not arguing about smileys. I just put it in my argument as a passing remark, but yernab's the one making a big deal out of it. That's why I believe he's scum trying to draw attention away from my main points and concentrating on the smiley point.

You listed it as a reason for voting for him, and now you're retracting it after people questioned it (Not just Yernab. You're the one who brought it up remember?) And you seem to have forgotten why you were really voting for him.

@crazypianist: *Snip*

agree with this post.

Just wanted to remind everyone.

Also, you didn't say anything about why you're trying to shift everyone's attention to my smiley comment even though it was just a one-liner, and thus shifting their attention away from my main points. This was the most important thing in my post in Page 4, and yet you regarded it, yet again trying to make a fool out of me by laughing at the whole smiley thing.

Actually he did:

You're suffering a bit of unwarranted self-importance if you think my post was a response to you entirely. Sure, you originally brought up the concept, but there were five more posts - count 'em - in response to the subject before I even replied. If my response seemed a bit strong to you, it's simply because I wanted to prevent people from wasting any more time on the subject. It seems generally agreed on here that smilies aren't really a signal one way or the other.

You're the one shifting attention. You were consistently attacking him for "shifting attention on the smiley thing", something he felt was a silly argument and everyone should stop talking about. Also, if you felt that Tubby was the one under the most suspicion, why are you still attacking Yernab for smileys? And the last sentence "Making a fool out of me" sounds like an overreaction. Why are still voting on Yernab and not Tubby? Who comes out scummier here? Oh and speaking of that Yernab post:

After reading EtherealCookie's analysis, I decided to look at manho's posts exclusively. If you're reading this, go ahead - at the bottom of the page, set the user to "manho" and see what you get. Although the bulk of EtherealCookie's analysis is aimed at tubby, who has been... rather unhelpful on the whole, manho's posts are even more devoid of substance. And he's an SE, too - if anything, he should be using the benefit of his experience to help us scumhunt. But so far, nothing.

So, until I get a response from manho explaining why he isn't helping us out more, I'm gonna

vote manho

.

Manho left this part of the quote out... it kinda sounds like a delayed OMGUS post, doesn't it? No one is seeing it as a scumtell, just you, Manho. After that post, Yernab flakes... minus town points.

I can't believe I just noticed this - on Page 4, Meji said something about "it's fine for yernab to be defensive even if he's a townie, but the only thing he's saying is 'smilies are not an argument! I am not scum!', and it doesn't help, he must also show who he thinks is scum". And immediately, on page 5, yernab copies exactly what Meji says town should do, including voting one of the popular choices Manho, and still trying to distract everyone to the smiley whateverthing.

Actually, Meji said:

Soyasushi - Ive seen very very defensive townies, noone likes being lynched. Also, as town, you should try very hard not to be lynched, after all, you are certain you are not scum, so anyone who isnt you is thus a better lynch (more or less) - that said, the best way to defend yourself really is to find someone who is a better choice. If all your doing is saying 'Im not scum! Smilies are not important!' etc, it doesnt provide a better option. Find who is scum and explain why they are scum

Yernab is never mentioned. How is Manho the popular target? You mentioned in your previous post:

So far from what I've seen, however, yernab still looks suspicious in my eyes, but from the current voting pattern, he doesn't seem to be very much suspected by the others. I guess I'll have to do a reread to see why Wrath is so targetted at the current moment.

And I already stated that it was you who is trying to divert attention. Is it really scummy to try and improve your posts through scumhunting? Looking "too townie" is a WIFOM argument, and not really a scumtell. Also notice that she is constantly making weak attacks on Tubby for lurking, that no one pays any attention to.

re-reading thoughts soon

That's like the 3rd time you've said that, but you never got around to doing it, eh.

Just one example.

no night kill, eh? looks like we have a doc, and they got lucky.

I have to admit, I do see the scumminess in this post, especially the "and they got lucky" part. But I hardly find this as congratulating the doc, and more of "We have a doc" post. Not really role fishing, but not at all town either. IF Mafia sent in a kill, they already know there's a doc. In fact, they already know the entire set-up. This is still a rather scummy post and I can see why people would jump on his case for it... but not lynch him. Now, Ojanen is taking his spot and doing a fair bit of scumhunting, albeit she's attacking a lurker and Manho (who is rather suspicious.)

Wait - Alright, it appears that either we have a doctor who managed to protect the one who was targeted by the mafia, or the mafia got lazy. Even then, I think the doctor will probably protect someone who appears most townish, or just most likely to be targeted by the mafia (Like, for example, I highly doubt he/she will protect someone like Tubby, for instance)

This seems terribly in-line with Tubby's thinking... if you don't remember, it was the:

close ach, but what i believe ethreal and bfl are looking for is the cop claim.

see scum don't nite kill, leaves town thin doc suceeded , cop feel safe to claim knowing there is a doc to protect him, scum kill cop

however if we have one or both roles both should be quiet about who they are

Okay so that's the bjl wagon's argument. After that, Soyasushi continues to tunnel, Tubby switches target very suspiciously, and Manho... I have a lot to say about that.

cookie and bjl are likely to be the two scum. let's see their ISO.

yernab:
#1: the "if you were scum" agrument ok for starting a discussion, but he said he would do "something" if he was scum and as he is town he will do "other things". seems trying hard to look pro-town, which is a scum tell for me.
#2: give up his "method" when someone disagree with it.
#4: say he would be playing safe the rest of the day, and that he knew there will be risk by starting the discussion, which implies he would play safe from the start if he is scum. trying to look pro-town again.

All of these were misrepresentation. Please go back and re-read yernab's responses. (I already attacked #3 and #5 above).

bjl:

#2: said yernab's "trying to look pro-town" as a newbie town mistake, which i disagree. said he had reread the thread a few times but don't find anything blatantly scummy. and then implied we should not scumhunt in day 1. but then ask for reasons for wrath's wagon. maybe trying to find reason to jump on the wagon.
#3: congratulating the doctor

#2 does sound a little scummy, but I'm starting to just find bjl a bad player more and more. His actions seem to be the odd one out when compared to Yernab and Ojanen so far. It's only a little scummy though... #3 is misrep, he was stating the existence of a doc, not congratulating him.

cookie:
#4: responding to yernab's #5 post, and i've quoted it above. seems talking to scum-buddy
#6: buddying tubby again, as tubby said. attacking wrath and secretly approve of yernab's "if i were scum" question
#16-18: discussing who is the next target if wrath flips scum. probably looking for the next mislynch
#24: "Well. I was wrong about Wrath. I'm surprised, honestly." the word "honestly" didn't seem honest

I think you misnumbered your posts somewhere. #6 is actually his seventh post. Can you back your statement up?
#16-18, again you need to back your statements up or this is just misrep.
#24 Back it up. Why do you think "honestly" is dishonest?

conclusion: yernab and bjl is scum, and cookie is likely to be scum and scum-buddy of yernab/bjl. there are scum interaction between them. cookie is pro-town and scumhunting well in day 1, but he seems know wrath would flip town in twilight, see #20-21. and then he is confident that he is right in day 2. really inconsisting.

so,

vote: bjl

(Please go back to page 11 for his entire post).

Unless you have confirmed scum, scum-interaction is just an awful scumtell. I could just as easily accuse you and Tubby of scum-interaction. Or Tubby and Soya. Or Crazypianist and EC. Or EC and Tubby. The list goes on. And back your statement up when you say that "he seems to know that wrath would flip town". To me, it seems more like he's trying to figure out if Tubby just made a huge scummy move (the hammer) or if he just hammered scum for reasons he couldn't see. Since it was the former. I can see inconsistencies with Cookie's D1 and D2 posts, but that's more due to new information (confirmed townie).

Hmm, I thought I read somewhere that lurking's not necessarily a scumtell, but anyway. I've never actually focused much on him, and the fact that he went all "ULTIMATE CONFIRMAGEEEE!!!" in the beginning seems to be drawing attention to himself, so it doesn't make sense why he's suddenly trying to distract the attention away from himself now. It's strange.

i think you are talking about yernab. it seems that he got so much attention and don't know what to do. it is a newbie scum mistake, not a newbie town one. but i will do a reread on him first.

Wrongful attribution. She was definitely talking about Wrath. "Not knowing what to do" is a newbie tell... that's true of anything, not just Mafia. It's a null-tell.

and after a reread, i confirm that is a newbie scum mistake. he is too excited but too careful in his posts. newbie town can be too excited, but they won't be writing their post so carefully. and he is too defensive, newbie town won't. and too serious about the RVS, newbie town won't.

What? Newbie town is never too serious about RVS? Often times, newbie town don't know what to do and find the random voting disconcerting. Newbie town never played the game before, so they expect to have some clue when the game starts, but when it starts and there is absolutely no information, they become confused and wonder where the discussion has gone.

Worst of all, Yernab knew what to do, create discussion. And he did just that. So both of those posts are just entirely wrong.

Okay, so that's enough digging for now. I do like seeing Zach posting more.

[Ojanen]

Damn, I hate quote wars but gotta reply to that.
I'm sorry about the walls guys, there just is too much to say.

His second vote on Wrath is wagoning after Ethereal's case, in a situation where Zach and Meji have also just stated suspicion on Wrath. Manho has not stated previous Wrath suspicion.

voting the 2nd vote with reasons is not wagoning

It looks like you were getting on the wave. There were just several people vocally suspecting Wraith and a case from Cookie. Bing, you were there. Arguing about the definition of "bandwagoning" is semantic.

A few days before deadline he also responds to the floating suspicion of my slot when Soyasyshi talks about it. Manho had not stated previous suspicion on my slot (notice a reactive trend?), in fact at the time of the original early posts that are under suspect he said first

starting the discussion is always pro-town. the smileys thing is really interesting and need more reseach.

and then didn't comment on the rest of the accusations at all.
The new conclusion just before deadline that I totally look like newbie scum

that happens when yernab ask for replacement when in trouble.

You're totally making that up. First, it doesn't happen then, second, yernab wasn't in trouble when he replaced out. Don't take my word, this was posted 12 hours and zero content before yernab was replaced:

So far from what I've seen, however, yernab still looks suspicious in my eyes, but from the current voting pattern, he doesn't seem to be very much suspected by the others. I guess I'll have to do a reread to see why Wrath is so targetted at the current moment.

D2 manho first thinks:

congratulating the doctor is always a scum tell, may be a small one though. may be fishing the doc claim, or building up a later doc claim.

will examine the wrath lynch tommorrow

. it's 2:30 am. really need a sleep.

Examination of wrath lynch never comes.

i've forgotten it as we have obv scums in bjl and cookie.

convenient, since your conclusion was once again very very piggybacky of the others' suspicions and the general thread mood right before you - opportunistic - and you find stuff scummy you earlier didn't. And the isos are forced as hell.

For example, point no.5 from my slot: my first incarnation says there's the feature where you can read a single players all posts in iso, and Cookie replies he didn't know and that's useful.
=>manho deems this to be a serious scummy interaction and connection. Yes, really. I'm not kidding.

i seriously think it is a scum interaction. scums usually avoid talking about scumhunting, as they don't scumhunt, so most of their conversation is game-unrelated things or bussing each other.

That is ridiculous. Early on, the game is full of remarks much less useful than that one. Talking mostly theory on a broader level instead of taking stances on players is a scumtell, but this little tip and answer doesn't fit that category. I mean, just take a look at page 4 for example. All five first posts are not scum-huntative. You yourself say for example "@crazypianist, are you from AoPS? i know another crazypianist there. btw, my name is 142857 there.", and continue by having a little theory discussion with Zach.

Continuous trend of trying to show everything in worst light possible i the style of the previous point.
First 3 content posts from my slot he finds scumtells from now, although not at the time (original only comment was the "discussion is good, smileys interesting" line).

yernab's or bjl's? i'm not close with the game, so i would miss out scum point easily, but you know, life is just busy.

Yernab. "Life is busy" is a nice excuse to change your stance to popular mood.

also,
in some of the zebra crossing fights with Cookie, manho says:

bjl is not voted for being useless. he is voted for the fishing, and it is a scum tell.

Great, except this is how big a tell manho originally thought the doc thing was:

congratulating the doctor is always a scum tell, may be a small one though.

congratulating the doctor is a small scum tell by itself, but with other post by bjl and cookie, it became fishing, which is a bih scum tell.

Waiting for the quotes of my slot fishing. I'm claiming it didn't happen, let's see if you can counter that with facts.
Also, I don't think Cookie ever even mentioned a doc.

setting up lynches has been mentioned:

@tubby, maybe we can lynch bjl today and cookie tomorrow.

so what's wrong with setting up lynches on players i think is scum?

Not caring about the flip of the first one and info of night kill. Planning like that fits mislynch psychology better, that's why it's a scumtell.

... The dissonance is just painful.

starting the discussion is always pro-town, congratulating the doctor is a small scum tell, and i still with it. but yernab start the discussion while trying to look pro-town and asking the "what would you do if you are scum" question is scummy. and bjl congratulating the doctor while fishing the power role makes a big scum tell.

But you didn't think the question was scummy before others where harping about it. You took distinct position of "discussion is pro-town". You even answered that question. I'm not buying the timing of your opinion change.

----

Preview edit: haven't read that wall from Kyiv yet.
And denying the rolefishing, waiting for quotes.

[Ojanen]

EBWOP: Mixed up lines in preview edit.
Rolefishing challenge was addressed to manho, supposed to be before --- !

[Soyasushi]

I need to clear something up, Kyiv.

Firstly, I did vote for yernab as a random vote because he was lurking in-thread yet not posting at all. But, that's not the reason I suspect him. I just voted for him urging him to post, and he did - and his post was scummy. Thus, I didn't remove my vote. I Did not vote for him just because of his 2-day lurking. Keep that in mind.

This game is very messy, thus I did not want to quote like mad. But I will quote every single one of the posts I feel scummy and post it here later on if I have time before going to Malaysia. If not, I can only post by 8th November.

[Ojanen]

Obviously I don't see his read as plausibly as you do.

And no, it's not based on him being on the Wraith wagon. But it's a pretty bad basis for him to go after others because he was also on the wagon. It's also not good play not to look at the players who were not on the wagon because scum can also deliberately avoid lynching wagons. There are cases when actions need to be taken into account more than who was on what bandwagon. It's a good starting place, but a narrow minded view of the game as a whole. Mafia can be, and is more complex than that.

I don't really see how my vote was illogical. Hypocritical? Maybe. Did I actively discourage discussion like Wraith did?

Him being on the wagon (the initiator, really) does not at all make it a bad basis. Scum will most typically wagon. It makes him look better, if anything, for drawing attention on something that makes him more suspicious.
Also, he says

Did BFL jump on the bandwagon? I don't like the lynch the lurker policy on only day II. Seems like a terrible idea. I'm pretty sure at least one mafia is on the bandwagon. They tend to be.

Which isn't "not looking at others at all". Me and him getting so intensely hounded in the beginning of D2 based on not that great arguments imo, would lead to a pretty reasonable thought of me being more likely town than scum.

I provoked you about the Wraith vote because of this argument:

I am also disliking how suddenly suspicious he became of ethereal only after Ethereal voted for him. I'd be interested to know what Wraith thought of Ethereal before Ethereal voted for him, but that presents the problem of whether I could take Wraith at his word for it.

Ethereal voted Wrath at the same time he posted his first content posts. No way to give an opinion before that. Predecessor never provided any real content.

Ugh.
I finally need to look at Tubby properly tomorrow.
Perhaps the strangest thing if we would be town is why wouldn't he have been hounded more for that hammer move. Need to look to if ther are players that would benefit on having him around as a sidekick until tomorrow and revise his iso.

[Ojanen]

Sorry, but for fairness of evaluation I noticed I made a mistake here:

Waiting for the quotes of my slot fishing. I'm claiming it didn't happen, let's see if you can counter that with facts.
Also, I don't think Cookie ever even mentioned a doc.

Cookie did mention a doc, although I still strongly fail to see what is unreasonable about what he said:

Why is it suspicious to assume first that we have a doctor? Nobody died tonight. It's not surprising someone might think there's a doctor.

[Kyiv]

you replaced pianst right?

so this is you one and only warning tread lightly, because for now you are taking the easy road, I will allow you to do a read of day one and day2.

I know i posted little if anything but take a close look at what i said in my posts.

Elaborate? Appealing to fear is a scumtell btw.

[tubby216]

you replaced pianst right?

so this is you one and only warning tread lightly, because for now you are taking the easy road, I will allow you to do a read of day one and day2.

I know i posted little if anything but take a close look at what i said in my posts.

Elaborate? Appealing to fear is a scumtell btw.

no not an appeal to fear

but i was trying to say is look a little closer at may posts, what they say, the words used the timing. Because i feel you are focusing on an easy target, wich by the way is a scum tell.

[manho]

case of rolefishing for Ojanen:

no night kill, eh? looks like we have a doc, and they got lucky.

Why is it suspicious to assume first that we have a doctor? Nobody died tonight. It's not surprising someone might think there's a doctor.

Okay, Im definitely looking at bfl, first one to get to speculating on the doc is suspicious, not entirely unlike 'congratulating the doctor'

how/why is it suspicious? what other explanation is there? I guess it's possible the mafia chose to not kill, but that's not likely and doesn't make sense. If we had been past the 72 hour time-limit for night, I would have considered the possibility that the mafia didn't get their orders in.

Why not? It gets everyone thinking doctor, and then the doctor (if there is one) becomes tempted to claim with the information they think they gained. It's actually a more common tactic than one might think. (Also consider that it can make for a good fake claim by mafia later in the game should it become clear to them that there is no doctor.)

how are people not already "thinking doctor" with no one dying during the night?

What's the common tactic? Not killing so it looks like there is a doc, so you can claim doc? That seems quite risky.

my first reaction after seeing no one died is really that there is a doctor and the protect success. but after half a minute or so, i think of the situation where the scum did not kill at all. only mafia is sure of whether mafia attempt the kill or not.

also, "stating the existance of the doctor after the doctor successfully protected someone" is the same as "congratulating the doctor".

the whole thing why "congratulating the doctor" is fishing is that, bjl and cookie seems sure that or presuading the doctor to believe that the doctor has successfully protected someone the mafia targeted, so the doctor can clear that person. then the doctor will be tempted to claim as if a cop is tempted to claim day 2.

the only reasons why bjl and cookie are sure that there is a doctor is either 1. they are the doctor, or 2. they are the scum whose kill is blocked by the doctor. as there is at most one doctor in a newbie game, so 1 is wrong. point out the third option if you think it is a false dilemma.

i admit to be a bit opportunitive, but it doesn't make you look pro-town. it is an ad hominem argument. so you should prove you are pro-town first before attacking others.

[EtherealCookie]

the only reasons why bjl and cookie are sure that there is a doctor is either 1. they are the doctor, or 2. they are the scum whose kill is blocked by the doctor. as there is at most one doctor in a newbie game, so 1 is wrong. point out the third option if you think it is a false dilemma.

Wow.
Please, read my posts.
Then point out where I said I am sure there is a doctor. I said why is it suspicious to assume there is a doctor. You are twisting my words a lot.
Also, your argument is terribly flawed.
As for 2, uhm, why the hell would we want to talk about the doctor if we are scum who got blocked by doctor's protection?
If you actually believe this is a scumslip, that's pretty sad. But you don't. You're just trying to get me lynched, given you're scum.

And where's Reason 3, being able to reason logically? No crap people would think the doctor was successful.

[tubby216]

the only reasons why bjl and cookie are sure that there is a doctor is either 1. they are the doctor, or 2. they are the scum whose kill is blocked by the doctor. as there is at most one doctor in a newbie game, so 1 is wrong. point out the third option if you think it is a false dilemma.

Wow.
Please, read my posts.
Then point out where I said I am sure there is a doctor. I said why is it suspicious to assume there is a doctor. You are twisting my words a lot.
Also, your argument is terribly flawed.
As for 2, uhm, why the hell would we want to talk about the doctor if we are scum who got blocked by doctor's protection?
If you actually believe this is a scumslip, that's pretty sad. But you don't. You're just trying to get me lynched, given you're scum.

And where's Reason 3, being able to reason logically? No crap people would think the doctor was successful.

your questions back have already been explained

can we lynch cookie now please that'd be great