Mini 852- Crayola Catastrophe Game Over (Post 1158)

[elvis_knits]

When would you claim in the list? Last?

A popcorn claim is that everyone decides who they want to claim first (who they think is scummiest usually) and then that person claims. The person who claimed chooses the next to claim, and so on until everyone has claimed.

Just so everyone knows what we're talking about.

So if nacho claims first he gets to choose the next person to claim. We would not keep going from Jahudo's list or anyone else's.

[Pomegranate]

Well, I guess we're waiting on Nacho then.

[Kirbyoshi]

I'm cool with Nacho going first, not that it hasn't already been decided

[elvis_knits]

If you want it to be someone else, you should say so. I just don't care that much.

[SocioPath]

* Post 564 Says he’d rather lynch unhelpful town than scum-hunting scum. I’m not sure if he defended this yet, but I read it as poor wording and nothing more. Scum wouldn’t say what he said, because it is so categorically wrong. I think he meant something else, but I’ll let him elaborate if he can.

What I mean is that, setup isn't always known, and scum of including all types (Mafia, SK, etc.) can sometimes actually legitimately scum hunt.
Then there is the anti-town people that are terrible to play with regardless of alignment. Chronic lurkers or people with reeeally antitown playstyles.
I've noticed that people are generally split into two distinct groups as well: people that would policy lynch, and people that attack and try to lynch those that want a policy lynch.
Now, all this isn't to say 'lets lynch unhelpful CONFIRMED town.'
Its just that these walking policy lynches with their anti-town stances could very well be as likely to be scum, as the honestly helpful player who is either: highly suspected of being scum, or claimed scum (usually an SK trying to be a vig. Although in every case I've seen someone claiming SK has been the best lynch anyways due to poor planning on their part.)

If you want it to be someone else, you should say so. I just don't care that much.

I'll go first, but I'd like to hear Nacho's input first on the subject.

[elvis_knits]

I'll go first, but I'd like to hear Nacho's input first on the subject.

That is fine with me also.

[Nachomamma8]

I'm a Vanilla Townie. No flashy special abilities or night actions to speak of.

Kirby, you next.

[Battousai]

As the sun sets, everyone comes to an agreement. Even though it is night, they will still discuss what should happen for the day. Agreeing to not go to bed until they figure out what to do, until at least they get very tired.

New deadline Nov 6 at 8:30pm (GMT-5).

[Battousai]

Vote Count:

Pomegranate (2)- SocioPath, Jahudo
SocioPath (2)– Nachomamma8, Kirbyoshi
ChiboSempai (2)- Pomegranate, elvis_knits
Kirbyoshi (1)- Yankee

Not voting (1): ChiboSempai

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch!

[Kirbyoshi]

I'm vanilla also.

EK, go.

[elvis_knits]

Well, you guys sorta screwed that up since socio said he wanted to go first.

I am a neighbor.

I can communicate at night with someone, but I am not assured their allignment. But, for a number of reasons, which I will explain below, I *think* my neighbor is town.

My neighbor is socio.

I think the reason he wanted to go first in this popcorn claim was because he would claim but make you all guess who his neighbor was. He thought this could help him guage reactions and scum hunt. (we discussed this as a possibility last night). Since me, socio, and jahudo are the only ones left to claim, I figured there was not much point in doing that now. If I claim and ask you guys to guess my neighbor, you only have two choices. And in my mind, the choice is obvious.

Reasons I think socio is town:
1)In our PM's he has shown a sincere effort to scum hunt. Not just among the rest of you, but he has shown a sincere effort to guess my allignment, something I don't think scum would really want/need to do. You might remember early yesterday he was paranoid about me buddying to him, since he was unsure of my allignment. He has seemed genuinely concerned about me, which is a town-tell in my book.
2)Last night we agreed zazie was the person we most wanted to lynch today. Then zazie got the NK. If socio was scum, I doubt he would spend the time discussing zazie as a potential lynch if he was getting NKed. (I know yankee is saying he vigged zazie, but it's possible zazie was double killed or yankee is lying. In the event that Pome is doc and stopped a nk on me, I don't think socio would try to NK me if he was scum since we have agreed for much of the game). So the NK does not make sense as having come from socio -- whether the scumkill was on zazie or if it was on me.
3)Ibelieve he wanted to claim first to guage reactions, which I believe is pro-town. nacho and kirby seem to not have seen his offer to go first, or ignored it. It's possible they didn't see it because orange can be hard to read. That's why I quoted it above and said "I don't have a problem with that." I was hoping that bumping it out of his longer post would let people see it better. I guess it did not.

ALSO...

This is one of the reasons that I was/am suspicious of the "paranoid or insane cop" claim because I knew me and socio have power roles that aren't really very powerful. We cannot actually confirm each other for sure. Of all the roles to claim so far, the town doesn't really have much power except the doc. So this is a further reason why I kept saying I didn't think a paranoid or insane cop made much sense in this setup, although I didn't want to claim at the time.

I've been trying to think if there is a cop, I think he must be insane, because then he is atleast somewhat useful. And if there really is a cop, that might make me wonder about socio a little bit more. But for the reasons I explained above, I think he's town.

[Kirbyoshi]

So, let me get this straight: there COULD be a scum in the neighbor pair, but there doesn't HAVE to be, correct?

Jahudo is the last one to claim.

If Socio has been as townie as EK has said he is in the neighbor chat, I'm thinking a Pom/Yankee scumteam. Thoughts?

[Jahudo]

I am a vanilla town.

Is neighbor the same as mason in this case?

[Kirbyoshi]

@EK: Socio said he'd like to hear Nacho's thoughts on the subject. Nacho's thoughts were obv that he should claim first, since he did.

[elvis_knits]

I am a vanilla town.

Is neighbor the same as mason in this case?

It's like a mason in that we can talk at night, but usually masons know each other's allignment. We are not assured each other's allignment.

[elvis_knits]

So, let me get this straight: there COULD be a scum in the neighbor pair, but there doesn't HAVE to be, correct?

Jahudo is the last one to claim.

If Socio has been as townie as EK has said he is in the neighbor chat, I'm thinking a Pom/Yankee scumteam. Thoughts?

Why have you decided to accept Chibo's claim (and assume nacho is innocent)? And decided Pome and yankee are lying?

I'm not so sure Pome is scum. She has claimed basically the only actually useful power role so far. I'm pretty sure I don't want to lynch her today.

Chibo could still be lying.

Does my claim change anyone's thoughts on Chibo? Because part of the reason I never liked his claim is because I always knew my role was not powerful. And for him to be paranoid and therefore hurtful/useless to town, or insane which usually results in a mislynch before being helpful... kinda made doubt his role.

As always, I'm not infallible, so I would really appreciate everyone's thoughts on this.

[Kirbyoshi]

@EK: Imo, it makes the most sense that, if two of them would be lying, it would be Pom and Yankee, based off the NK of Zazie.

Your claim doesn't really change my opinion on Chibo, since I usually try to not just assume the game is balanced. Do you think 2nd-string Muppets was balanced, with a paranoid cop and a town role that is generally scum-aligned?

[Jahudo]

unvote

Pome has the most pro-town role and I believe she is town now.

I can still buy Chibo's claim, but if the mafia is underpowered then there's a good chance he's paranoid and useless. And if he was in an underpowered mafia, then he might have felt safer about fakeclaiming cop.

Yankee's early claim helps him, and only a full vig could have outed him if he was faking it. I could see 2 1-shot vigs because that basically equals 1 full vig. If he was scum, he could only guess there wasn't a vig because of blocks/protects, and he might not have taken that chance. I also think he's played better than Budja, though I'd like to see more cases from him.

Both the neighbors have looked pro-town to me so I really think the power is real and not a scumteam ploy. I don't think the role should confirm them both, but I think they're both town through their play.

There's a chance we have 2 mafia goons who knew (by their lack of power) that there would be an underpowered town and could fakeclaim, but I think the play today is one of the vanillas. At least one scum has to have claimed vanilla.

That makes my top suspect Nacho, and my default second Kirby. But honestly, I'm considering a Chibo lynch just for the results and because I don't think we're in MYLO. Unless Nacho is GF or Chibo is paranoid, lynching Chibo would give us 2 flips for 1 on people who are probably not among tonight's NK targets. There are some "ifs" in this plan, so I want to just talk about it now while we all name top suspects.

[Kirbyoshi]

Unvote

I've gotta think for awhile. There's alot of claimed PRs.

Socio: Claimed Neighbor (assumedly) with EK; unsure of alignment.
Pom: Claimed Doc, but could very well have lied with her and Yankee conspiring to confirm each other with their claims. However, she's the only pro-town claim with no strings attached, so I think she's town.
Me: Claimed Vanilla. Take it however you will.
Yankee: Claimed 1-shot Vig, apparently shot Zazie last Night, but could be lying with Pom, could also have been double target, in which case Yankee could be telling the truth, and Pom could still be lying, but as stated above, I don't think that's the case.
Chibo: Claimed either Paranoid or Insane Cop, "guilty" result on Nacho
Jahudo: Claimed Vanilla; I think he's been one of the most pro-town players since he replaced in.
Nacho: Claimed Vanilla. I suppose he could be scum with Chibo, but they were bussing each other pretty hard not too long ago.
EK: Claimed Neighbor with Socio. Unsure of alignment.

My top 3 are as follows:
Nacho
Chibo
Yankee

Since we're so close to deadline, and it's useless for me to not vote, I'll

Vote: Nachmamma8

[SocioPath]

Pom: Claimed Doc, but could very well have lied with her and Yankee conspiring to confirm each other with their claims. However, she's the only pro-town claim with no strings attached, so I think she's town.

Thats actually a good point. She IS the only pro-town claim with no strings attached.

Every claimed role so far that hasn't been vanilla has had their limitations...except Pom. Hers is a straight up simple Doc claim, in a game that isn't as simple.

[elvis_knits]

But if Pome is lying then we have NO protection role in the game. I mean, weird shit can and does happen, but most games have a protection role of some kind.

[Yankee]

agreed with E_K, i have never seen a game with no protection role of some sort. Still suspicious of Kirby and Nacho....

[ChiboSempai]

So wait, did we actually get a straight up claim from Socio, or are we assuming he is a neighbor (either town neighbor or mafia neighbor) with EK?

My thoughts on the play of today and role:

I agree with Jahudo that the play of today should be one of the vanillas. We can't risk loosing a power role and a lot of the roles here can sort of semi confirm each other (for instance my role can somewhat confirm people if we find out if I'm insane instead of paranoid).

Due to the lack of great PRs it would make sense that I would at least be insane, but this is just an observation and is in no way true, we can't assume the balance of the game as already mentioned.

As for EK's reasons for why he thinks Socio is town, I believe point 1 and 3 (especially 3), though I don't necessarily buy 2 as a big town tell. That would be a very easy way to deceive you if he was scum, since he would know about Zazier being the nightkill target and trying to lead you to think that he would be alive the next day. Remember that if Socio is mafia then his scum partner(s) would know about his communication with you since he could just tell them what's going on, and the 2 or 3 of them could devise a plan to lead you in the wrong direction.

The vanillas in the game (as claimed) are KirbYoshi, Jahudo, and Nacho.

I'm willing to bet that at least one of them scum, I really can't see both (or hopefully not all 3) scum be able to fake claim power roles successfully.

As for results I have gotten, the only one I have where the person is still alive is Nacho, to which I have a guilty verdict on. If he is lynched and flips scum then it confirms that I am paranoid and my power is useless. If we however believe that my role should be insane instead due to balance reasons, that would mean Nacho would be town. I would say for the benefit of the doubt to at least give me one more day to try and find out if my cop role is paranoid or insane and not lynch Nacho yet.

So imo the play should either be Kirbyoshi or Jahudo. It's all up to the players to determine which one they think is scummier through various actions through the days so far. It really doesn't matter to me which one it is as I haven't found a really legit scum tell on either yet, though I don't like some of the things Kirbyoshi has said (thinking back to like "do you think I'll be lynched today"), and I do like Jahudo's analysis' on the game since he's joined in.

The only logical choice then at least from my point of view then is Kirbyoshi. Pom, if you are the Doctor please protect me tonight. I'm the last town role with any real power since Yankee's assumed one shot is used up, and we already have somewhat of an analysis of EK's discussion with Socio. Protect me to give me another chance to find a innocent verdict (meaning I'm insane not paranoid). If I do happen to get it, that could mean A LOT to the town.

Vote: Kirbyoshi

[SocioPath]

With everything thats been said, pairs of people have been sticking out, as far as scum teams go:

Chibo & Nacho: Chibo the Cop gets an 'innocent' on Nacho the vanilla.

Yankee & Pom: 1shot vig + one kill for the night relies on a 'protect' for dual fake claimings.

Kirby & EK: EK has defended Kirby even more than shes defended me.

Kirby & Pom: anything Kirby does, Pom overlooks.

Pom & EK: a fake 'protect' on her buddy is only icing on the cake of all the coaching that EK did for Pom D2.

Jahudo has the luck of not being tied to anyone as a consequence of being in the game so briefly.

These are just pairings I've noticed so far.

[Pomegranate]

Top lynch choices:
Chibo
Nacho
Kirby
Yankee

From all the lists, I think that it's likely/possible that we have a 2-man scumteam. I am going for a Chibo lynch.