Newbie 843 (Game Over)

[hohum]

Very well. I will extend the deadline out until November 11th.

Good luck.

[EtherealCookie]

Oh, hey new people. And hello, Starbuck.

Also, I'm standing by my Manho/Tubby scum pair.
Just keep trying to push that lynch on me, why doncha, Manho? You two've been trying very hard, and still haven't gotten anywhere. Maybe... That just might be due to the fact I'm very pro-town! Anyhow, I'd like an analysis of all players and if you think they're scummy or not, if you could, replacements, when you catch up.

[PaltryExcuse]

With the extension and personal perusal, I'm gonna

unvote

.
I'll try to post tomorrow on my thoughts on Day 1, and hopefully Day 2 as well.

[manho]

@ojanen: cookie is the scum, and you are most likely his buddy, but i still see a small chance that cookie is scum buddying with you. it's really small.

[Ojanen]

Ok. I was just puzzled because your reasoning for switching your vote to Cookie very much assumed motivations that stem from me being scum.

[PaltryExcuse]

Day 1:
Bjl/Yernab

• - liked his wanting to get talk going, however, answers would be hard to read
  - in his defense of why he backs away so quickly, he’s new to the site, and was accused of using WIFOM by the three most experienced members (both SEs and the IC)
  • o don’t like how he mentions again he is withholding his vote though
  - very defensive about the smilies when it seems like they are just discussing the issue (no one says it is outright scummy or anything)
  - Yernab flakes, votes manho based on his being an SE and unhelpful
  - Up to this point, I’m reading this as one of two things
  • o 1. Newbie Scum who got caught
    o 2. New player who doesn’t like being the first target
  - bjl replaces, and soon points to newbie town mistakes (I think it just points to newbie mistakes, no alignment)
  • o end of day, does not say anything during the 3 days of twilight

Crazypianist1116 / lrd

• - lrd subs out right after making random vote
  - CP doesn’t like a random vote?
  - I like the day 1 case against EC
  - Suspicious of tubby’s hammer, but town did not seem to be budging on the Wrath issue

EtherealCookie / david-villa-7

• - david-villa was uber busy, so it’s really just an analysis on EC
  - somehow analyzes a response by manho and makes it an accusation on tubby?
  • o Oh, and as a sidenote, your ‘silly scum’ tactic has won many a newbie game according to my research
  - I think you misread Wrath’s early posts, as I gleaned something entirely different when reading them
  • o However, Wrath’s lack of defense later on is ucky
  - Interestingly enough, you’ve given us two different targets, depending on what Wrath’s reveal is
  • o Pianist if Wrath is scum, tubby if Wrath is town
  - EC’s feelings on tubby are weird…

Manho

• - early play is very uninformative
  - it’s hard to label someone as ‘trying to hard’ without some sort of background info
  - his short posts make him difficult to read
  - I don’t agree that not knowing what to do is a newbie scum mistake. It’s a newbie mistake, not role affiliated.
  • o His no defense just doesn’t help him get OUT of suspicion
  - I’ll give you Wrath's lack evidence in his vote towards EC is crazy

Meji Fan

• - first to scumhunt at tubby’s ‘need more posts’ attitude mixed with his uninformative actions
  - FoS’s David for not contributing
  - Votes manho for willingness to change votes
  - Jumps on Wrath bandwagon after being convinced by manho
  • o Her case comes right after Zach’s vote, but her vote comes right after the replacement…quicklynch before a re-read?
  - I might be reading into this too much as I can’t point at anything she’s done that is scummy before hand

Tubby216

• - seems unconcerned of the first (in my mind) non-random vote of the game coming towards him
  - Question: Why are LoS’s good at the end of the day rather than at the beginning?
  - Seems unflustered by the accusations of his day 1 play being anti-town
  - His vote of Wrath seems to be to prevent a no-lynch day 1, but with 3 days remaining he could've waited

Zachrulez

• - says basically nothing that hasn’t already been said until his ‘bandwagon’ vote on Meji is challenged
  - Question: Why is expressing a dislike of LoS’s anti-discussion? You could just post them anyway with your own feelings on them.
  • o However, I do like your opinion on the possible helpfulness of LoS’s
  - Your comment that you don’t see a plus in talking in twilight is without merit… any discussion of game could help town… saying nothing at all just guarantees that
  - also, you advocated the dislike of LoS as anti-discussion, but you firmly end discussion during twilight...?

At the end of Day 1, no one stands out to me as outright scum, or as outright townie… however suspicions are raised towards yernab/bjl and Zach.
I’d probably have been exploring tubby's hammer, Zach's twilight comment, and EC’s case against Wrath a bit further (who jumped on, off; when, how) come day 2.

*Sidenote: This replacing thing is much tougher than I thought. Bleh.

[Ojanen]

cookie is emphasising that we should look into the wagon on Wrath, but not the scum tell we spot in D2. the wagon is worth an investigation, but it is possible that only one or none of the scums is in the wagon.

and the wagon is deadline-pushed, but not scum-pushed, so we can't really get much from the wagon.

cookie is just trying to distract our focus to last night's wagon. and along with cookie's twilight talk, he is probably setting up a mislynch on tubby.

Sorry but will bring this up again, because I was disheartened that noone seemed to listen about Zach, and that his responses so far have been basically "this is nothing new, I get accused of this stuff often" and "I'll look at it later", which is unsatisfactory brushing actual points away to the max, and I think almost a week has already passed. And I have some renewed energy since PaltryExcuse seems to also see something off with Zach on D1.
But about the underlined-sentence, why wouldn't scum love getting on a deadline wagon? It's really the perfect excuse. Especially people like Zach who, for goodness' sake, keep their random vote until 5 days before the deadline while not scumhunting.
Also, if you think the wagon isn't scum-pushed, what on earth are you doing voting Cookie?

[Ojanen]

Well, to be fair, Zach's didn't reason his vote through deadline, he just had poor arguments otherwise and dubious time use in relation to voting. Meji's and especially tubby's votes had something to do with the deadline though.

[Kyiv]

Wow, this game has had so many replacements, I think Tubby and Manho are the only two who hasn't been replaced at this point (Zach too, if you don't count confirmation stage replacements) . And Paltry's slot has been replaced 4 times now!

Actually, when deadline hits, the person with the most votes is lynched. Tubby actually knew about this when he hammered, and said waiting for a deadline lynch was "weak" (Post 209). Soyasushi also knew this (Post 207).

I'm looking forward to your Day 2 analysis, Paltry. And Starbuck hasn't said anything yet, I'd like to see her comments so far.

[manho]

But about the underlined-sentence, why wouldn't scum love getting on a deadline wagon? It's really the perfect excuse. Especially people like Zach who, for goodness' sake, keep their random vote until 5 days before the deadline while not scumhunting.

why do scum need to jump on a deadline wagon. wrath is going to be lynched, so the scum can choose not to jump on the wagon.

the reason why people are looking at a wagon to look for scum is that we need 5 votes to mislynch someone in day 1, but there are only 6 townies that would vote, so a mislynch without scum involving is near to a unanimously wrong town. therefore, we usually conclude that there must be a scum or two on the wagon, but that can't be applied to wrath's case as at deadline, the one with the most votes got lynched. it may only take 3 votes to a lynch and scum don't have to involve in it.

Also, if you think the wagon isn't scum-pushed, what on earth are you doing voting Cookie?

so when did i say i'm voting cookie as he was pushing the lynch? he is scum for knowing wrath will flip town in twilight before the lynch scene and setting up the next mislynch in twilight on tubby.

[manho]

kyiv is faster than me on the explanation, and i also look forward to paltry's day 2 analysis.

[Zachrulez]

Paltry, if you read mini 761, it will give you good insight on why I dislike excessive discussion in twilight. (As twilight discussion on day 3 was a major factor in the day 4 mislynch.)

[Starbuck]

I'm working on my thoughts in Notepad. I haven't forgotten about y'all!

[Ojanen]

Ok, I missed the deadline rules in this game, they're different to what I'm used to.

the reason why people are looking at a wagon to look for scum is that we need 5 votes to mislynch someone in day 1, but there are only 6 townies that would vote, so a mislynch without scum involving is near to a unanimously wrong town. therefore, we usually conclude that there must be a scum or two on the wagon, but that can't be applied to wrath's case as at deadline, the one with the most votes got lynched. it may only take 3 votes to a lynch and scum don't have to involve in it.

There were still 5 votes on a townie this D1 too though, the wagon wasn't concluded through deadline. The nature of scum psychology just makes it more likely for scum to be found on the wagon rather than a clusterfuck of townies with only one town player from the entire cast not being there, discounting the wagoned person.

Also, if you think the wagon isn't scum-pushed, what on earth are you doing voting Cookie?

so when did i say i'm voting cookie as he was pushing the lynch? he is scum for knowing wrath will flip town in twilight before the lynch scene and setting up the next mislynch in twilight on tubby.

I was just expressing puzzlement at your rhetoric, since Cookie pushed the Wraith wagon most, and you think he's scum, yet you said the wagon wasn't scum-pushed.

Zaaaaaach, please play with me already.

[manho]

@ojanen, i know what you mean, yes yes, the wagon is scum-pushed, and that scum is cookie.

what i'm saying about the deadline-pushed instead of scum-pushed is what town-cookie should think. town-cookie should not think the wagon was scum-pushed as he will then be the scum. therefore, town-cookie should think the wagon was deadline-pushed, as we basically have 3 people voting wrath, and the remaining 2 join the wagon just before the deadline.

also, it can be easily seen that cookie was setting up a lynch on tubby at twilight and when he asked us to look into the wagon. however, scum-tubby is not more likely to hammer than town-tubby, as scum-tubby really didn't have to hammer him, while town-tubby may get bored of waiting for the deadline for something (wrath's lynch) that won't change.

also, people are more willing to change their votes to the not-so-scummy player at deadline, so the chance for 5 townie voting the same townie at deadline is much higher than that not happening at deadline.

[Zachrulez]

Zaaaaaach, please play with me already.

*Resists the urge to crack a bad and possibly inappropriate joke*

Qualify playing with you. Am I not playing already?

[Ojanen]

Crack all the jokes you want.
No you're not! Boo.

Wed Oct 28, 2009

As for the rest of it. I'll need to look at it more and think on it.

Sun Nov 01, 2009

I'll try to get a look at your case when I have some time. (Obviously I wasn't expecting the claim to happen and it's grabbed all the attention from all the things I was planning to do regarding this game)

Respond to this, for example, by explaining your thought process:

I provoked you about the Wraith vote because of this argument:

I am also disliking how suddenly suspicious he became of ethereal only after Ethereal voted for him. I'd be interested to know what Wraith thought of Ethereal before Ethereal voted for him, but that presents the problem of whether I could take Wraith at his word for it.

Ethereal voted Wrath at the same time he posted his first content posts. No way to give an opinion before that. Predecessor never provided any real content.

[Ojanen]

Yeah, and decide if my manho case makes me sinister as you implied and if yes, why. Please.

[Zachrulez]

The timing of Ethereal's vote doesn't change the fact that Wraith's vote was OMGUS, not to mention quickly and decisively cast. He was more interested in retaliating than he was in scum hunting. He concluded before questioning.

Seemed like a reasonable thing to find him scummy for early on.

[Zachrulez]

Yeah, and decide if my manho case makes me sinister as you implied and if yes, why. Please.

I haven't decided. I am not going to be trying to convince you that you're scum if I do decide that it is now am I?

Do you think you have made valid points on Manho? Do you think those points are still valid? Do those points make more sense from a town perspective simply because Manho claimed doc?

[PaltryExcuse]

Day 2!

I just want to start out by saying this is a freaking MESS. We have until November 11th, only because our mod was gracious enough to give us replacements an extension, and votes are everywhere (6 votes on 4 different people!!!) and there’s little conversation. Someone has to get lynched today (as per the mod rules) and a lynch by only 2 people scares the bejeezus out of me (considering we need 5 to lynch BEFORE deadline).

My PBPA:
Overall, I just want to say I find it surprising of how much talk there is about scum-pairs and the like. It’s ok to be searching somewhat, but how sure some people are that they’ve found the scum is scary, scary stuff and is definitely treading on dangerous ground.

EtherealCookie (replaced david-villa-7)

Wowee. Firstly, I’d like to ask you to refrain from calling people unintelligent and implying they can’t read properly. Personal attacks do not bring anyone on your side.
Game-wise however, you’ve got me definitely questioning your motives.
On your vote in the wagon: Although I didn’t think the original reasons for your vote were valid, Wrath’s reaction was poor. Null-tell overall.
You do follow through on your original intention of looking at the bandwagon, and you come up with manho and tubby as scum. You call both tubby and bjl useless, however you suspect one and not the other. Does tubby’s activity mean he’s scum while bjl’s inactivity imply town?
Question: When and why did you change your opinion of ‘tubby following his meta’ to ‘tubby is scum’? This is a major shift as you go from saying “Oh that’s just Tubby for ya!” to “LOOK! HEATHEN!”.

Kyiv (replaced crazypianist1116 who replaced lrd)

CP semi-guarantees the existence of doctor in her first post. Why didn’t this get a little attention along the same lines as bjl’s flub? Because she mentioned it second?
Your case on tubby interests me. I’ll get to that in his section. Overall, Kyiv gives me the impression of a townie, however, CP’s comment is a definite admission she firmly believes there is a doc.

manho

Early on in the day, I was very confused as to the motives in your play. Firstly, your semi-defence of tubby is that he is always anti-town, so his hammer isn’t scummy. I disagree, as I’m getting the impression people think his play is anti-town no matter what. If we assume his short answers are a part of his meta, all we are left with is his actions. Ending the day early, when Wrath’s lynch was probable, did nothing except show impatience and possibly stifle talk.
Then I see multiple attempts at swaying Soyasushi to your point of view specifically. For example, mentioning she is the most townish. When he gets under pressure by Kyiv and Ojanen, we see a doc claim, and a claim he saved my slot. The fact he claimed doc with no counter-claim makes me not want to lynch him today. I’m not sure how I feel about the claim itself, but your confidence in Soyasushi would be logical if you saved her the night before.

Ojanen (replaced bjl who replaced Yernab)

As has been talked to death about, bjl’s first comment of the day is a common scum-tell. Then, bjl’s last post is weak and crap… as has already been noted. Ojanen subs in, and then builds a case on Zach and manho. The case on manho is soon dropped when he claims, but the case on Zach is still being pursued. As I said, I don’t know how I feel about manho’s doc claim, so your instant change in thought confuses me. Overall, I’d say you’re still scummy to me as the only defense you have on your predecessors’ odd play is ‘newbie’. Although this could be the case, I’m tentative to change my mind.

Starbuck (who replaced Meji Fan)

It goes without saying, but this will be focused on Meji as Starbuck has yet to post her analysis. She is less of a presence than day 1. However, she does sub out after a while due to real life commitments. She tends to be very independent in her conclusions. Not much else to say.

tubby216

So far, your odd first day play has been universally defended with the magical word ‘meta’. Your deadline vote makes a bit of sense, but overall is a bit scummy for me. It’s not really why I am questioning you now though.
Firstly, you never explain yourself unless asked. I don’t know if that is meta or whatever, but it’s not exactly the most pro-town thing ever. Secondly, Kyiv points this out:

I don't know that you're a poor player, but you certainly have poor points. In fact, you don't even have points. You just quote specific things, and say "WIFOM" or "Setting up mislynch". You can't expect people to take your word for it, you have to explain your reasonings, otherwise I'm just going to say you're talking out of your ass.

QFT. It’s almost like you’re leaving things up to the imagination. Just quoting things, and then saying buzz words, is crazy. It might be a good scum tactic to lay back and let others make your case for you by just prodding them with hints. Ucky.

Zachrulez

I said I’d be looking at you specifically, and I was. Let’s just start with… I’ve been happier? Day 1 was consistently a re-hash of other people’s arguments on various suspects. Day 2 starts off similar, when you are surprised of bjl’s lurking after Meji points it out. It was pretty obvious tubby’s first post of the day was throwing suspicion on both bjl and EtherealCookie… And look! Right after it we have Zach questioning EC’s behaviour. You once said that your vote on day 1 was not scummy but hypocritical at best. I’d say your vote was scummy considering your day 2 pattern of follow the leader.
In other news, I do like you questioning Ojanen on his belief Cookie is town… but you still haven’t answered the reverse (why you thought manho was town

before

his claim). ‘Coasting’ is not very town in my opinion, with or without being busy.
So far your only defense is that you’ve over-logged in games and are difficult to find time / motivation to get into this one.
About Mini 761, I’m finding that it became a town loss due to a mistake by a townie (and the fact that the vig was nightkilling town willy-nilly). I think that mistake could’ve come in either day phase or twilight, so the fact that it is in twilight is not an issue for me. Is there something I’m missing other than Hoopla’s mistaken contradiction of herself?

I’m going to let people respond before making my vote, but I suggest we do this fast as there are only 6 days left now. My biggest problem at this point is that, in my opinion, the 4 scummiest players (Ethereal, Ojanen, Tubby, and Zach) are all out battling each other. Crazy…

[EtherealCookie]

Wowee. Firstly, I’d like to ask you to refrain from calling people unintelligent and implying they can’t read properly. Personal attacks do not bring anyone on your side.
Game-wise however, you’ve got me definitely questioning your motives.
On your vote in the wagon: Although I didn’t think the original reasons for your vote were valid, Wrath’s reaction was poor. Null-tell overall.
You do follow through on your original intention of looking at the bandwagon, and you come up with manho and tubby as scum. You call both tubby and bjl useless, however you suspect one and not the other. Does tubby’s activity mean he’s scum while bjl’s inactivity imply town?

If you have problems with the way I play, you can skip over anything I post! That'd be counter productive, though.

And, yes, active lurking is much more suspicious, and trying to push a wagon on a lurker.

Question: When and why did you change your opinion of ‘tubby following his meta’ to ‘tubby is scum’? This is a major shift as you go from saying “Oh that’s just Tubby for ya!” to “LOOK! HEATHEN!”.

I posted about this earlier, if you read it.
I looked deeper into his meta, and the hammer just seemed very strange, as he provided reasoning for voting at least on his town games. Also, I wasn't going to let a meta excuse a lot of the other things, like pushing for BJL lynch and Manho defending him before he got to speak.

[Ojanen]

Woah huge content post! Yay.
It's very late in my time zone so I'll look at it tomorrow properly and just respond to stuff directly related to me right now.

I haven't decided. I am not going to be trying to convince you that you're scum if I do decide that it is now am I?

Ugh not the point, why do you keep dodging?
I'm trying to evaluate

you

. You implied you suspect that there might be sinister motives, although you hadn't looked at the case really. I want content from you on it. If you find my motives scummy and how.

Also, one general question: what is your philosophy regards voting? Do you usually mostly only vote if you eant to lynch someone or are you more liberal?

Do you think you have made valid points on Manho? Do you think those points are still valid? Do those points make more sense from a town perspective simply because Manho claimed doc?

1. yes. I might have reached some in the end when was getting sure but I believe most of it is pretty solid.
2. points can be argumentally valid and still false. Scumtells aren't absolute, more like probabilities. I currently believe manho is more likely town, which would make my points as described in first sentence.
3. Not truly, but I don't see how that claim in that situation would be anything than very sub-optimal play from scum.

The only problem is if manho is playing irraionally enough. But anyway I don't think that's something that should be worried about today.

As I said, I don’t know how I feel about manho’s doc claim, so your instant change in thought confuses me.

I would see it as a huge and stupid risk from scum not in truly real danger yet, and I do not really believe in intentional no-nightkill for reasons I have explained before and there hasn't been a counter.

[manho]

Wowee. Firstly, I’d like to ask you to refrain from calling people unintelligent and implying they can’t read properly. Personal attacks do not bring anyone on your side.
Game-wise however, you’ve got me definitely questioning your motives.
On your vote in the wagon: Although I didn’t think the original reasons for your vote were valid, Wrath’s reaction was poor. Null-tell overall.
You do follow through on your original intention of looking at the bandwagon, and you come up with manho and tubby as scum. You call both tubby and bjl useless, however you suspect one and not the other. Does tubby’s activity mean he’s scum while bjl’s inactivity imply town?

If you have problems with the way I play, you can skip over anything I post! That'd be counter productive, though.

And, yes, active lurking is much more suspicious, and trying to push a wagon on a lurker.

so you are saying tubby is pushing a wagon on bjl for the reason that bjl is lurking? have you read the game? if i were you i'll call you unintelligent and can't read properly.

[tubby216]

oh wow and i thought i was pushing for a cookie wagon,, my mistake